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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:42:34 GMT -5
Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Apr 16, 2009 13:42:34 GMT -5
I forgot something. Hawk, are you voting for Moody because you actually think he's scum? If so, could you provide some evidence/thoughts to back it up. Or are you voting for Moody because you don't think Paul's slip actually was one? If this is the case, do you think Paul is Town or are you just not willing to vote for him for a slip? You seem to imply that you think he's scum because no one is voting for him. But I disagree with this line of thought as outlined in the previous post. Is that the entirety of your thought process? Not like he has much else to go off of. Everyone came in, voted me, and disappeared. So there is virtually nothing else to help him find scum.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:45:07 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Apr 16, 2009 13:45:07 GMT -5
This game isn't about fairness. This game is about finding scum. We must look at all actions, and determine which were probably made by scum, and which were probably not. We also must look at the absence of evidence. Where we would expect an action to occur that hasn't. Moody is an easy lynch for scum. Without any votes, Moody is still on the chopping block. So the question is why didn't the scum make any effort to get Moody lynched? It isn't too difficult to manufacture enough evidence to justify a vote. Possibilities include: 1. Moody is scum. 2. Paul is also town. 3. Scum want to avoid the appearance of voting for a townie. I'm not saying that Paul's behavior is less scummy than Moody's. I'm saying that based on the behavior of everyone else, I find it highly unlikely that Paul is scum and Moody isn't. The more I've played and watched the less confident on the effectiveness of finding slips. Slips are just screw-ups, and scum aren't really any more likely to make them than town. I think we are better off looking at the big picture, and trying to think like scum. vote Moody Wait, so you're saying you think Moody is scum because nobody has voted for him? Don't you think it'd be a little obvious for people to vote for him, since he hasn't really done anything suspicious yet? I don't get your logic. --FCOD
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:46:52 GMT -5
Post by Total Ullz on Apr 16, 2009 13:46:52 GMT -5
I think the point isn't that no one voted Moody but the fact that no one unvoted Paul...
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:50:50 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Apr 16, 2009 13:50:50 GMT -5
I've been watching for somebody to vote Moody.
If Moody is scum, of course scum won't vote for him, if they do anything they're going to try and push the Paul-wagon.
If Paul is scum, then they've got an easy out in Moody, all they've got to do is manufacture a reason to vote him.
I think Hawk just did that. His reasoning is such WIFOM, and the vote comes at such a late time... veryveryvery scummy. I'm not sure about a hypothetical Paul-Ulla connection, but I'm fairly convinced of a Paul-Hawk connection.
My vote stays, and I urge anybody hanging around to vote Paul. He's scummy, Moody isn't, and his death will tell us bunches about Hawk.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:54:12 GMT -5
Post by Total Ullz on Apr 16, 2009 13:54:12 GMT -5
I kind of get Hawk idea.
It would be so easy for scum to unvote Paul right now. He has 6 votes so it's likely there is a scum or two voting for him...
A simple "unvote Paul - he seems Town after his claim" would lynch Moody. Scum don't have to vote Moody - all they have to do is unvote Paul...
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:54:22 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Apr 16, 2009 13:54:22 GMT -5
I'm not sure I follow you correctly here. What if both were town (as has been claimed by them) - then you're saying all the (assumed) scum voting for Paul would have unvoted so they didn't end up lynching a town? And the fact that no one unvoted Paul to you would suggest that Moody could be scum and now all the (assumed) scum voting for Paul are staying quiet because if they unvote - Moody will be lynched? If they are both town than vote analysis is moot. Scum can vote for one, the other, or neither without risk of a scum getting lynched. I'm saying if they are both town, I can't predict what scum would do, because what scum's votes wouldn't really matter.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:54:36 GMT -5
Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Apr 16, 2009 13:54:36 GMT -5
My death won't tell you shit about Hawk, because I'm gonna come up town.
It is kinda funny that you say the scum are going to be pushing my bandwagon, then in the same post tell everyone that is around to vote for me.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:55:53 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Apr 16, 2009 13:55:53 GMT -5
My death won't tell you shit about Hawk, because I'm gonna come up town. It is kinda funny that you say the scum are going to be pushing my bandwagon, then in the same post tell everyone that is around to vote for me. I said "if moody is scum". Falsely representing another players words is a scumtell.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:57:58 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Apr 16, 2009 13:57:58 GMT -5
See the thing is, to my mind, Moody is a bad vote for scum(assuming of course that he is Town for the purposes of this argument). The penalty votes make him too obvious a target, and if he ends up lynched and Town, anyone voting for him will be looked at very closely because it's an easy lynch target for scum. Right now, that's just you Hawk. Of course, it doesn't matter unless and until Moody ends up dead(via lynch or NK) and comes up Town. Except we never vote for the obvious target, because scum "wouldn't do something obviously scummy". I mean I just voted for Moody. Am I obviously a scum who will now get lynched?
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 13:58:31 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Apr 16, 2009 13:58:31 GMT -5
I kind of get Hawk idea. It would be so easy for scum to unvote Paul right now. He has 6 votes so it's likely there is a scum or two voting for him... A simple "unvote Paul - he seems Town after his claim" would lynch Moody. Scum don't have to vote Moody - all they have to do is unvote Paul... I don't think it follows that because he's got six votes there are likely scum votes for him. And if there were, and they were going to unvote him, wouldn't they have done it by now? What's funny is, I was actually prepared to come in here and unvote Paul, simply because of the astounding lack of players defending him with votes. And then Hawk made his move, shooting that theory all to heck.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 15:15:19 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Apr 16, 2009 15:15:19 GMT -5
Now that is a huge dose of WiFoM Hawkeyeop just served up.
Hawk's argument is moderately plausible, but it relies, at it's heart, on “scum would never do that.” The argument is that, assuming that Paul were an Alien and Moody not, some alien voting for Paul would find an excuse to unvote Paul and throw Moody to the wolves.
Let's assume (for the purposes of this discussion) that Paul is an Alien, and at least one of his six voters is. Is it so implausible to think that either (a) the Alien can't construct a good reason to unvote Paul, or (b) doesn't want to unvote Paul in case Paul draws more fire at a later date, gets lynched and exposed? If that happened, everyone would scrutinise the people who backed off the lynch to strand Moody as the vote leader.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 15:28:16 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Apr 16, 2009 15:28:16 GMT -5
Now that is a huge dose of WiFoM Hawkeyeop just served up. Hawk's argument is moderately plausible, but it relies, at it's heart, on “scum would never do that.” The argument is that, assuming that Paul were an Alien and Moody not, some alien voting for Paul would find an excuse to unvote Paul and throw Moody to the wolves. Let's assume (for the purposes of this discussion) that Paul is an Alien, and at least one of his six voters is. Is it so implausible to think that either (a) the Alien can't construct a good reason to unvote Paul, or (b) doesn't want to unvote Paul in case Paul draws more fire at a later date, gets lynched and exposed? If that happened, everyone would scrutinise the people who backed off the lynch to strand Moody as the vote leader. It isn't about scum wouldn't do that. It is about odds and probability. Many scenarios is possible. The question is what is the most likely action of scum. If we can't try to figure out what behavior is most probable, I'm not sure what we are doing. I fail to see how finding a credible reason tt vote for someone is difficult. When all else fails you can always go for a gut vote. We don't usually lynch people for that.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 15:38:20 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Apr 16, 2009 15:38:20 GMT -5
Now that is a huge dose of WiFoM Hawkeyeop just served up. Hawk's argument is moderately plausible, but it relies, at it's heart, on “scum would never do that.” The argument is that, assuming that Paul were an Alien and Moody not, some alien voting for Paul would find an excuse to unvote Paul and throw Moody to the wolves. Let's assume (for the purposes of this discussion) that Paul is an Alien, and at least one of his six voters is. Is it so implausible to think that either (a) the Alien can't construct a good reason to unvote Paul, or (b) doesn't want to unvote Paul in case Paul draws more fire at a later date, gets lynched and exposed? If that happened, everyone would scrutinise the people who backed off the lynch to strand Moody as the vote leader. It isn't about scum wouldn't do that. It is about odds and probability. Many scenarios is possible. The question is what is the most likely action of scum. If we can't try to figure out what behavior is most probable, I'm not sure what we are doing. I fail to see how finding a credible reason tt vote for someone is difficult. When all else fails you can always go for a gut vote. We don't usually lynch people for that. I don't wholly disagree with your post; in particular, I agree that looking for "slips" isn't always a route to finding scum, because town and scum both make slips. I'd note, though, that if you see a slip of a type that a scum player is more prone to make than a Town player, then you should take that into consideration. Thus I'd suggest that, if you find a slip, you ask what type of player (alignment wise) would be likely to make that slip, before ignoring it as a tell one way or another. What I didn't agree with was your dismissing the possibility that Paul is an Alien because no-one's unvoted him, and Aliens on his vote wagon would have done so by now.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 15:47:31 GMT -5
Post by Total Ullz on Apr 16, 2009 15:47:31 GMT -5
What's funny is, I was actually prepared to come in here and unvote Paul, simply because of the astounding lack of players defending him with votes. And then Hawk made his move, shooting that theory all to heck. I'm not sure I understand the "simply because of the astounding lack of players defending him with votes"... why would you unvote Paul based on that? And totally something else - did Cap P leave a joke vote on FCoD until sunset?? Or did I miss something???
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 16:09:49 GMT -5
Post by moodymitchy on Apr 16, 2009 16:09:49 GMT -5
I'm completely confused but I know I'm town and heading for the rope... The last few posts have been all about what would scum do... well surely the whole point is that if you think someone has done something scummy enough then your vote should go with them Unvote: FCOD Vote: Hawkeyeopismissing?
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 16:15:23 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Apr 16, 2009 16:15:23 GMT -5
I don't wholly disagree with your post; in particular, I agree that looking for "slips" isn't always a route to finding scum, because town and scum both make slips. I'd note, though, that if you see a slip of a type that a scum player is more prone to make than a Town player, then you should take that into consideration. Thus I'd suggest that, if you find a slip, you ask what type of player (alignment wise) would be likely to make that slip, before ignoring it as a tell one way or another. What I didn't agree with was your dismissing the possibility that Paul is an Alien because no-one's unvoted him, and Aliens on his vote wagon would have done so by now. That is all fair. Certainly there are types of slips, such as too much knowledge, that are more likely to be associated with scum. My argument wasn't that if Paul was scum than there would have been unvotes. It is entirely possible that no vote on Paul is a scum vote regardless of his alignment. I'm just saying that if Paul was scum, scum had several options, none of them especially suspicious, to get him off the chopping block. The fact that a pretty weak case from the start of Day never got a true challenge, despite the fact that one player already had 6 votes, makes me believe no one wanted it challenged. I can't be sure of anything, but I'm more confident that Paul is town than Moody is scum.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 16:18:07 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Apr 16, 2009 16:18:07 GMT -5
What's funny is, I was actually prepared to come in here and unvote Paul, simply because of the astounding lack of players defending him with votes. And then Hawk made his move, shooting that theory all to heck. I'm not sure I understand the "simply because of the astounding lack of players defending him with votes"... why would you unvote Paul based on that? And totally something else - did Cap P leave a joke vote on FCoD until sunset?? Or did I miss something??? Well, if Paul is scum, one would expect other scum to do something about the danger he's in. Quite frankly, I don't expect any scum on his bandwagon to dive off at this point, that's way too risky. So instead, since nobody had voted for Mitch, I was ready to conclude that Paul wasn't scum. Except then somebody did. And, yeah, what's up with the pinkster? Is he new?
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 16:19:59 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Apr 16, 2009 16:19:59 GMT -5
I'm completely confused but I know I'm town and heading for the rope... The last few posts have been all about what would scum do... well surely the whole point is that if you think someone has done something scummy enough then your vote should go with them Unvote: FCOD [/color] [color Vote: Hawkeyeopismissing? [/color][/quote] Moody, why are you voting Hawkeye? The case against him assumes that Paul is scum, and a vote for Paul does more for you at this point. If you think Paul isn't scum, then the case for Hawkeye shouldn't hold water for you. I'm confused.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 16:35:06 GMT -5
Post by moodymitchy on Apr 16, 2009 16:35:06 GMT -5
I'm completely confused but I know I'm town and heading for the rope... The last few posts have been all about what would scum do... well surely the whole point is that if you think someone has done something scummy enough then your vote should go with them Unvote: FCOD [/color] [color Vote: Hawkeyeopismissing? [/color][/quote] Moody, why are you voting Hawkeye? The case against him assumes that Paul is scum, and a vote for Paul does more for you at this point. If you think Paul isn't scum, then the case for Hawkeye shouldn't hold water for you. I'm confused.[/quote] You're not the only one that's confused. Hawkeye posted #228 that he was inclined to vote for me purely as no one else had. If other people thought I was scum they could easily have voted for me as an easy lynch. Hawkeye then did place his vote on me. To me as most people either think I'm town or didn't want to seem to be scum by going for the easy lynch but Hawkeye did then that to me makes him scum. I will still say that I think Paul is town so why vote for him. I was always going to vote for who I thought was scum
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 17:30:39 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Apr 16, 2009 17:30:39 GMT -5
My review of Pede Scribe's posting history. Day 1, he started by analysing Idle's reaction to the game start, in part based on a conversation in Night 0. This culminated in a vote for Paulwhoisaghost on the grounds that Pede himself later called “weak.” Now, this is Day 1, and not far along that Day either, so weak cases are to be expected. I consider it something that players on all sides are likely to be doing; indeed Town are slightly more likely to make weak cases than Aliens are, because they'd have less information. Pede then moved on to developing a theory about what roles are in the game, and how generic rolenames might correspond with the Alien Taste flavour names. (That last sentence seems... odd somehow.) This sort of activity is one that Aliens can join in safely and seem helpful, thus building Town cred. Of course, Townies also want to analyse the game structure and perhaps “solve” the puzzle (see, for example, Werewolf – The Split, in which much time was devoted by players of all sides to trying to solve the Testerizer.) In the early game it may help the Aliens more than the Town, as they have an interest in what roles are in the game, and reactions to the list might give the Aliens some useful (to them) ideas. What will be interesting, later, is to look back and see whether this analysis (or someone else's response) betrays some hints about the game setup that an Alien or third party might be more likely to know than a Townsperson. Day 2 starts with a comment about us “losing the immunizer.” This twinged me a bit, as we've seen Scumside players gloat before, and get caught for it. A weight – a small one – in the balance for Alien alignment. Then he claims that it's OK to lie as Town. No, it's not. Really. It's the worst habit you can get into as Town. Tell the truth, and nothing but the truth, even if it hurts you personally and gets you killed. Pede's lies in the Evil Dead game could easily have backfired on his side late on; but by the time they started emerging he was established as a Mason, and no-one wanted to lynch him. If we'd caught onto them a couple of Days earlier, we'd have had a fine old time leading the Town up the garden path with them. I don't play poker, but I do roleplay. Sometimes, you do things that are likely to fail, and pull them off against the odds. They make the best stories; but, if you keep doing them you will fail more often than not. When a Townsman lies, they take a high-risk strategy, one that will, over the long haul, cost them more than they win. Ultimately, the only reason I'm not voting Pedescribe right now is that I have no evidence of his lying in this game. Advocacy of a bad idea is not in itself evidence of Alien alignment. Voting him for lying in the Evil Dead game would be carrying a grudge, and that's worse (in the long run) than lying. That leaves me without a vote, without any pointers to any other suspicion, and 90 minutes to Dusk. Guess I'd better think fast.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 17:35:53 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Apr 16, 2009 17:35:53 GMT -5
MoodyMitchy (7) - Penalty Vote, Hawk Paul (6) – FCOD, BillMc, bufftabby, KidV, Almost Human, Pede Scribe Pede (4) - Mitey Mouse, Paul, Chucara, Nanook FCoD (2) - Shaggy, Cap'n Pinkie Hawkeyeopismissing? (1) - Moody
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 17:46:23 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Apr 16, 2009 17:46:23 GMT -5
Hour and a half, NAF (well hour and 15 minutes now).
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 17:52:14 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Apr 16, 2009 17:52:14 GMT -5
Hour and a half, NAF (well hour and 15 minutes now). Holy carp...my office clock is set wrong. Well that's good to know.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 17:56:56 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Apr 16, 2009 17:56:56 GMT -5
Does that mean you have to stay at work another hour? ;D
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 18:00:01 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Apr 16, 2009 18:00:01 GMT -5
Does that mean you have to stay at work another hour? ;D Unfortunatly, it does. (I actually noticed the mistake earlier, the computer clock is right , but then got busy and didn't get to get back and fix it. Then you pointed it out...and it became a mess.)
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 18:37:54 GMT -5
Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Apr 16, 2009 18:37:54 GMT -5
20 minutes :/
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 18:40:58 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Apr 16, 2009 18:40:58 GMT -5
I'm a little upset that we're lynching Mitch on the basis of one man's vote.
I'm even more upset that Mitch could be saving himself and isn't. You aren't thinking straight, buddy... YOU are the only person you know is Town.
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 18:44:37 GMT -5
Post by MiteyMouse on Apr 16, 2009 18:44:37 GMT -5
Unvote: Pede Vote: Paul
I really don't want Mitchy to die based on one vote! I'm sorry Paul...cuddles!
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 18:46:16 GMT -5
Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Apr 16, 2009 18:46:16 GMT -5
I hate to disagree with you Kid, but even if he voted me he couldn't save himself at this point. He would have to vote for me and someone not voting me would have to vote me... or Hawk unvote...
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Day Two
Apr 16, 2009 18:47:58 GMT -5
Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Apr 16, 2009 18:47:58 GMT -5
Ok... now Mitch can change his vote and tie me... but, since I know I'm town and no one has a clue what Mitch is...
Unvote: .
Vote: Moody
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