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Post by Inner Stickler on Jul 10, 2009 16:33:48 GMT -5
I am the doc. I protected myself Night 1, FCoD Night 2, and SisterCoyote last Night.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 10, 2009 17:06:04 GMT -5
We can be sure we have a Doc, since if we didn't either Sister Coyote would be dead or a Mafiate and the real Cop is still out there somewhere. If they are, by claiming they'd ensure a Town win.
Now we have a Doc claim, we can assess what we can learn from the information. It's quite likely (for reasons already discussed) that IS is telling the truth – I'm not the Doc, and with Texcat and Metallicsquink already declining to claim, there isn't anyone else left. (I really can't see any way in which Sister Coyote could claim Doc now.)
If Sister Coyote is the Cop, then the Mafiate is one of Metallicsquink or Texcat, since I know it's not me. If IS had protected one of us three, that player could be ruled out. But he didn't.
It is, however, still possible that Sister C is the Mafiate, and we have no cop. In this case, the only possible explanation for last Night is that Sister Coyote didn't send in a kill. That sounds unlikely, but I have known it happen. It also happens to Town power roles (I've done it too, but not around here.)
I think I'll reread the game again tomorrow, before voting.
Oh, and Total's redirect via Idlemafia has gone belly-up again. I had to reload the board through psychopathgames to get it to work.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 10, 2009 17:07:08 GMT -5
The only thing that makes me suspicious about this claim is why the scum would both roleblock and try to kill SisterCoyote on the same Night. I’m either suspicious of you, IS, for claiming to have protected SisterCoyote when you really didn’t or SisterCoyote for claiming to have been roleblocked (in her post 346). texcat’s post 359 got me thinking of a theory. It’s completely convoluted but not entirely implausible.
Let’s say FCOD and SisterCoyote hatched a plan where they would both claim cop but they are actually both Mafia goons and there is no roleblocker. The risk is that there is a cop and that person claims and we have three people’s claims to consider. But if just one doc claims, we can’t really confirm or deny SisterCoyote’s claim. She keeps telling us there must be a roleblocker because she’s the cop but we only have her word on that.
So maybe SisterCoyote really is scum and she didn't kill anyone last Night so we'd all think there was a doc and she claims to have been roleblocked so that we also think there is both a cop and a doc (who clearly must have protected her since she was the most obvious target). If this is true, the mistake here is SisterCoyote claiming to be roleblocked (she could have easily just picked someone to say that she investigated since as scum, she would know who is town unless she didn't want to confirm any of the remaining players since there are so few of us left).
I may be overthinking this so if anyone sees any holes in this logic, please let me know. But now that IS says he protected her last Night and we didn't have a kill, that would mean that the scum both roleblocked SisterCoyote and tried to kill her. I just don't see why they would do that. I thought for sure she would be roleblocked but that some other town would be killed. With SisterCoyote useless as the cop, there is no reason to kill her specifically. Why not take out someone else from town?
Unvote: texcat[/color].
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 10, 2009 17:10:00 GMT -5
Mhaye, I think you and I have a similar theory about SisterCoyote. As for me, I can confirm myself if anyone wants to ask me any questions about my role PM. We just can't quote. I do have a question to Ulla about whether or not we can quote our role name. I'll just say this: it's not "Vanilla Town".
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 10, 2009 17:59:14 GMT -5
The only thing that makes me suspicious about this claim is why the scum would both roleblock and try to kill SisterCoyote on the same Night. I’m either suspicious of you, IS, for claiming to have protected SisterCoyote when you really didn’t or SisterCoyote for claiming to have been roleblocked (in her post 346). I've been thinking about Inner Stickler a little more and I think that I'm not suspicious of him. If he were scum claiming doc (and we don't really have a doc), that would mean SisterCoyote is not scum. And if SisterCoyote is not scum and telling the truth, she is the cop and there is a roleblocker (because why would the real cop lie about being roleblocked). So then we are back to my original question of why the scum/roleblocker would have targeted the same person. It's more likely that IS is telling the truth and there isn't a cop or a roleblocker. I'm going to give myself a little more time to think this through since it's pretty convoluted and I want to be very sure about voting for a claimed power role (SisterCoyote).
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 10, 2009 18:00:41 GMT -5
The other thing is that if IS is lying and SisterCoyote is not, the real doc would have claimed. Since MHaye, myself and texcat are all claiming to not be the doc, I think IS must be the real doc.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 10, 2009 18:56:16 GMT -5
Another possibility is that both IS and SisterCoyote are telling the truth and the last remaining scum didn’t kill anyone last Night just to throw us all into a tizzy (or at least throw me into a tizzy!). However, this scenario is the least plausible to me considering how the scum would have had to anticipate a sizable amount of variables.
If we lynch IS, we cannot confirm SisterCoyote because again, if we really do have a doc, that doesn’t necessarily mean we also have a cop and a roleblocker. However, if we lynch SisterCoyote we could confirm IS because if she’s not scum, then we would know she is telling the truth and that we do have a cop, a roleblocker and a doc. Of course, that leaves me, texcat and Mhaye to figure out which one is scum, but since we can afford one (and only one, I believe) more mislynch and potentially still win, I think the best bet is to lynch SisterCoyote toDay. If she's telling the truth, she's being blocked anyway so being the cop doesn't help us much anymore.
Vote: SisterCoyote [/color]
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Post by texcat on Jul 10, 2009 22:41:43 GMT -5
Inner Stickler seems to be confirmed as doc. I'd like to hear from Sister Coyote again before I vote. I'm leaning towards her with MHaye as my second choice.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Jul 11, 2009 0:28:29 GMT -5
I'm of two minds about SC being the last scum. If she is that means we have no cop and no roleblocker and SisterCoyote didn't send in a NK last Night. I have a hard time believing that she wouldn't NK someone. On the other hand, I really don't like how easy FCoD made it for us to lynch him so I feel like there's another shoe still to drop.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 9:13:12 GMT -5
I'm of two minds about SC being the last scum. If she is that means we have no cop and no roleblocker and SisterCoyote didn't send in a NK last Night. I have a hard time believing that she wouldn't NK someone. On the other hand, I really don't like how easy FCoD made it for us to lynch him so I feel like there's another shoe still to drop. I'm thinking FCOD wanted us to lynch him so that we would think SisterCoyote was the real cop.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Jul 11, 2009 11:56:34 GMT -5
Ok. I have to go to work in an hour. I was hoping for Mhaye or SC to post again before I voted but I don't know how much internet access I'll have. Vote: SisterCoyote
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Post by Sister Coyote on Jul 11, 2009 12:05:35 GMT -5
You're making a mistake, all.
I am the cop. FCoD was scum, and those pushing for my lynch are in the wrong.
Just because IS protected me last night doesn't mean that there was anything to protect me from. If he in fact protected me last night.
Either the scum roleblocker decided it was better to block me than to kill someone, or I was made their target for both last night. Once I'm dead, I hope y'all have a plan to find that Scum.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 12:27:05 GMT -5
Do you have someone else to vote for, then?
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Post by texcat on Jul 11, 2009 12:28:38 GMT -5
Vote: Vote: Sister Coyote
I am definitely uncomfortable with the lack of night kill last night. But it may have just been a oops. The night was extended 12 hours, perhaps because of the oops.
I did not like any of the cop claiming situation. I'm still not sure why FCOD claimed when he could have just caused the tie. It still smells like he was setting up the very slow counter-claim by Sis. The slowness of the counter-claim is really the key for me -- I think Sis was leaving plenty of time for a real cop to counter-claim. Also it gave FCOD a reprieve for a day. We would probably have broken the tie and lynched him a day earlier had the counter-claim been timely.
Aside: Am I doing something wrong with the vote tags?
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Post by texcat on Jul 11, 2009 12:32:24 GMT -5
Do you have someone else to vote for, then? MHaye is definitely my choice for tomorrow. I am convinced the scum is either Sister C or MHaye, and we can just barely afford one mislynch to get both of them, if necessary.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 15:28:44 GMT -5
Thanks for answering, texcat, but actually that was a question for SisterCoyote. If she thinks we are making a mistake, I am interested in knowing who she thought was scum and why so that we could take that into consideration tomorrow if we still have to find the last scum.
One thing I did consider if SisterCoyote is telling the truth, is that tomorrow we might be left with one scum, the doc and one vanilla town. The scum will vote for the vanilla town and vice versa and it will be up to IS to make the final decision.
So if SisterCoyote is town, that means out of MHaye, myself and texcat two are vanilla. Maybe we should try to confirm each other by asking questions about our role PM toDay in order to help us tomorrow if this goes another Day.
I said this earlier and I'll say it again in case anyone wants to discuss this: my role name from my PM is not "vanilla town". Maybe if I give the first word of the role name, someone can tell me the second word and at least the two of us would be confirmed.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 15:48:05 GMT -5
You're making a mistake, all. I am the cop. FCoD was scum, and those pushing for my lynch are in the wrong. Just because IS protected me last night doesn't mean that there was anything to protect me from. If he in fact protected me last night. Either the scum roleblocker decided it was better to block me than to kill someone, or I was made their target for both last night. Once I'm dead, I hope y'all have a plan to find that Scum. I'm sorry you think we are making a mistake but even if you are town, your lynch gives us the most information. We can only afford one more mislynch which means trying to get myself, texcat or MHaye is a big risk. When you are confirmed, we also have confirmed IS as well as the game set up. I think that helps us a lot and still gives town a chance for a win here.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 11, 2009 19:05:19 GMT -5
I apologise for not getting back sooner, but I seem to have lost my get up and go (for RL reasons I've griped about).
I think we can accept IS as the Doc. I'm not, however, enamoured of the suggestion to lynch Sister Coyote, because I think it's in the town's best interests not to.
If Sister Coyote is the Cop, then we'll know that the Mafia have a roleblocker. On the other hand, by eliminating the Cop we allow the Mafiate to focus their resources on eliminating the Doc (by both roleblocking IS and targeting him for a kill). That means the last Day will be between the Mafiate and two Vanilla. Alternatively, if the Mafiate thinks IS can be led to vote for one of the Vanilla, they can kill the other Vanilla and hope to lead IS to the proper vote.
If we lynch one of the unknowns, and the game doesn't end, the Mafiate pretty much has to roleblock IS or risk their kill getting blocked again. Then, if they don't kill SC they risk being exposed by the investigation. Therefore they'll probably settle for a three-handed Day with IS and the other Vanilla, only this time the other vanilla isn't guaranteed to be one IS could be persuaded to vote for.
Thus, if Sister Coyote is the Cop, we have a chance at a more favourable setup for Day 5 if we don't lynch her.
If Sister Coyote is the last Mafiate, however, and we lynch an unknown she's got a problem. Since there is no roleblocker, she can't force her kill through against the Doc's protection. If both SC and IS are alive at Dawn tomorrow, it would be virtually certain that this is because the Mafia have no roleblocker, and if that is the case hang Sister C.
Thus not lynching Sister Coyote Today makes it more likely we can catch the Mafiate if Sister Coyote is the Cop, and if she is that Mafiate she will be exposed Tomorrow.
So who should be the lynch victim? I'll come back to that, but I want a short break.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 19:25:03 GMT -5
I apologise for not getting back sooner, but I seem to have lost my get up and go (for RL reasons I've griped about). I think we can accept IS as the Doc. I'm not, however, enamoured of the suggestion to lynch Sister Coyote, because I think it's in the town's best interests not to. If Sister Coyote is the Cop, then we'll know that the Mafia have a roleblocker. On the other hand, by eliminating the Cop we allow the Mafiate to focus their resources on eliminating the Doc (by both roleblocking IS and targeting him for a kill). That means the last Day will be between the Mafiate and two Vanilla. Alternatively, if the Mafiate thinks IS can be led to vote for one of the Vanilla, they can kill the other Vanilla and hope to lead IS to the proper vote. If we lynch one of the unknowns, and the game doesn't end, the Mafiate pretty much has to roleblock IS or risk their kill getting blocked again. Then, if they don't kill SC they risk being exposed by the investigation. Therefore they'll probably settle for a three-handed Day with IS and the other Vanilla, only this time the other vanilla isn't guaranteed to be one IS could be persuaded to vote for. Thus, if Sister Coyote is the Cop, we have a chance at a more favourable setup for Day 5 if we don't lynch her. If Sister Coyote is the last Mafiate, however, and we lynch an unknown she's got a problem. Since there is no roleblocker, she can't force her kill through against the Doc's protection. If both SC and IS are alive at Dawn tomorrow, it would be virtually certain that this is because the Mafia have no roleblocker, and if that is the case hang Sister C.Thus not lynching Sister Coyote Today makes it more likely we can catch the Mafiate if Sister Coyote is the Cop, and if she is that Mafiate she will be exposed Tomorrow. So who should be the lynch victim? I'll come back to that, but I want a short break. I don't understand the bolded part. Are you assuming IS has protected SC and that's why they are both alive in the morning?
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 19:28:58 GMT -5
What if the scum kill IS toNight and we didn't lynch SisterCoyote? We still won't know if she's the real cop, would we?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 11, 2009 19:28:59 GMT -5
No. I'm assuming that (a) SC is the Mafiate, and (b) IS protects himself.
That's the only way we can get to a last Day that includes both IS and SC.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 19:31:13 GMT -5
No. I'm assuming that (a) SC is the Mafiate, and (b) IS protects himself. That's the only way we can get to a last Day that includes both IS and SC. I forgot IS could protect himself. I guess that makes sense. Again, though, I want to say that I can confirm myself so if you want to ask me anything, I'm here. Lynching me would be a definite mislynch and I don't want us to take that chance. If we don't lynch SisterCoyote toNight and you decide to lynch me instead (although texcat already voted, IS is gone I think and SisterCoyote didn't vote for anyone), it would definitely be a mislynch and tomorrow you'd be at lynch or lose.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 19:34:10 GMT -5
No. I'm assuming that (a) SC is the Mafiate, and (b) IS protects himself. That's the only way we can get to a last Day that includes both IS and SC. Assuming IS is telling the truth, the scum now knows the doc is self-protecting so he probably wouldn't be the target anyway.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 11, 2009 19:35:45 GMT -5
What if the scum kill IS toNight and we didn't lynch SisterCoyote? We still won't know if she's the real cop, would we? All IS has to do is self-protect. If he does so, then the Mafia can only kill him by roleblocking his power. If SC is the Mafiate, there is no roleblocker, so she can't kill him. On the other hand, if SC is the Cop, if the Mafia roleblocks and kills IS, then SC gets an investigation. Presumably she'll realise that she should investigate one of the two unknowns (as IS is confirmed already). Whichever one she investigates, she'll be able to ID the Mafiate and that's all, she wrote. If SC is the Cop, the Mafia have to kill her Overnight - unless we do it first.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 11, 2009 19:43:42 GMT -5
No. I'm assuming that (a) SC is the Mafiate, and (b) IS protects himself. That's the only way we can get to a last Day that includes both IS and SC. Assuming IS is telling the truth, the scum now knows the doc is self-protecting so he probably wouldn't be the target anyway. Indeed, and that's the point. There is only one way that both SC and IS can survive to Tomorrow, assuming we lynch someone Today. (All I wrote assumes we lynch someone. If we don't I'd need to rethink the situation.) That is that SC is the Mafiate. So, given a lynch Today, if SC and IS both survive to Day 5, SC is Mafia.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 11, 2009 20:02:31 GMT -5
MS.
It's nearly 2am, and I have to get to bed.
I'm trying to work out whether a no lynch (!) would be better for Town. We can do it by forcing a tie. We can do this by the two of us voting for Texcat (I'm assuming that you don't want to vote for yourself any more than I want to vote for myself, and we'd be mad to vote IS - if either Texcat or SC is the Mafia, all they;'d have to do is join us and we'll have lynched the Doc). of course, none of the others should change their vote Today and SC should not vote.
We wouldn't gain a mislynch; assuming a kill Tonight, we'd still go into Day 5 at LyLo. What we would gain is a bit of resilience agaisnt a railroad; in 3-handed, if one townie votes for the other, the Mafiate can make it a majority and win, in 4-handed the Mafiate has to carry two people.
I think that might be the best suggestion.
For the purpose of forcing a tie.
Vote: Texcat
About the PM handshake; let's wait until after Total has answered your question. Maybe you should repeat it, in bold and green?
I'm off to bed.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 20:03:57 GMT -5
What if the scum kill IS toNight and we didn't lynch SisterCoyote? We still won't know if she's the real cop, would we? All IS has to do is self-protect. If he does so, then the Mafia can only kill him by roleblocking his power. If SC is the Mafiate, there is no roleblocker, so she can't kill him. On the other hand, if SC is the Cop, if the Mafia roleblocks and kills IS, then SC gets an investigation. Presumably she'll realise that she should investigate one of the two unknowns (as IS is confirmed already). Whichever one she investigates, she'll be able to ID the Mafiate and that's all, she wrote. If SC is the Cop, the Mafia have to kill her Overnight - unless we do it first. I don't understand roleblocking and killing the same person. That seems a waste of a roleblock. If the scum is still out there, I would assume they roleblock one and kill the other, presumably roleblock SC and kill IS. Also, who are the two unknowns? Me and texcat? Because you are not confirmed either, you know. And I think this conversation might be moot anyway. Day is over at 2 am Central. I don't know if anyone else is coming back. SisterCoyote seems to have given up so I don't know if she'd come back to vote.
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Post by metallicsquink on Jul 11, 2009 20:16:44 GMT -5
Well, dammit, here I am again alone at the end of the Day with the decision of whether or not to cause a tie. I don't think I'm going to do it - I spent all day trying to work out why I wanted to vote for SisterCoyote and it would be very hasty for me to change it now.
To be honest, I am now suspicious of MHaye. If MHaye is scum, I think he is expecting IS to protect himself and then we'd end up where I had feared: with only one vanilla town and no ability to do a PM handshake. I'm also suspicious that MHaye doesn't want to try to confirm me now - maybe because he can't. I think IS should try to protect myself or texcat to leave himself open for a kill so that there would be two vanilla town tomorrow (assuming MHaye is scum and thinking IS might be vulnerable, kills him instead of one of us two since one is a sure thing and the other is 50/50). Also, if MHaye is scum, he may not kill anyone toNight or kill myself or texcat so that both IS and SC are alive tomorrow his theory can be proven.
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Post by texcat on Jul 11, 2009 21:10:14 GMT -5
All IS has to do is self-protect. If he does so, then the Mafia can only kill him by roleblocking his power. If SC is the Mafiate, there is no roleblocker, so she can't kill him. On the other hand, if SC is the Cop, if the Mafia roleblocks and kills IS, then SC gets an investigation. Presumably she'll realise that she should investigate one of the two unknowns (as IS is confirmed already). Whichever one she investigates, she'll be able to ID the Mafiate and that's all, she wrote. If SC is the Cop, the Mafia have to kill her Overnight - unless we do it first. Oh dear. This almost makes sense. If SC is the cop and we don't lynch her, the mafia should roleblock her and kill one of the unknowns. Is this MHaye's scummy plan? When both SC and IS appear alive tomorrow, we lynch SC letting MHaye and the scum win? If the Sis lynch goes through, then it doesn't matter who IS protects. If Sis is scum, game over. If Sis is the cop, then the mafia have a roleblocker who will automatically block IS, and kill who ever they want.
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Post by Total Ullz on Jul 11, 2009 23:59:11 GMT -5
Mhaye, I think you and I have a similar theory about SisterCoyote. As for me, I can confirm myself if anyone wants to ask me any questions about my role PM. We just can't quote. I do have a question to Ulla about whether or not we can quote our role name. I'll just say this: it's not "Vanilla Town". From the rules: You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
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