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Post by texcat on Apr 9, 2012 16:40:48 GMT -5
One of the reasons I targeted gnarlycharlie last night was that he denied having been blocked by Suburban. Lightfoot said she was blocked night 1, and Gadarene said he was blocked night 2. Sinjin had already said that she wasn't doing anything to block at night, so it was not surprising that she did not get a message about being blocked. So it looked to me like charlie might have been trying to hide something. Now that we know that charlie was town and had a special role, I wonder why he was not blocked. Could it be that Suburban is the one who was fibbing? I looked again at who Suburban blocked: Night 1 I targeted LightFoot. After her confusion regarding 'good guys vs. bad guys' on Day 1, I thought she might be a 3rd Party with a role that was somewhat ambiguous. So I targeted her with the intention of blocking her. Night 2 I targeted Gadarene. I figured that with him and peeker being 'confirmed Masons' (which was how it appeared at the time) one of them might be a good target for Scum. Since peeker had claimed to be effectively Vanilla at that point, I thought Gad would be the juicier target, I targeted him with the intention of protecting him. Night 3 I targeted gnarlycharlie. I had a gut feeling he might be Scum, so I took a chance in case I could block the Scum kill. Night 4 I targeted sinjin. Pizza had claimed to have blocked sinjin on Night 2 when there were only 2 kills, and I thought he might have been telling the truth, so I decided to block sinjin. I did consider targeting Cookies to protect her, but was hoping the Scum would assume that and strike elsewhere. Apparently I should have drank the WIFOM. So, we have an unexplained 'missing kill' on Night 2, when I blocked and protected Gadarene. It could be that he is a killer, and I blocked him, or it could be that he was a target that Night and I protected him. Or of course I could have had nothing whatsoever to do with it. And last Night, we had three kill attempts: Scum , Idle , and a third person. Between Scum and Idle, one of tho em was successful, and the other failed to kill me. So who was the third 'killer'? texcat would seem the obvious party, since he's a confessed killer. But that seems almost too obvious. Suburban did you miss SisC's explanation of the missing kill on night 2? Your reasons for blocking sinjin don't make much sense to me since SisC explained this on day 4 before we lynched her. Wine or no wine, I think Cookies would have been a better choice. And I am wondering if there were 3 attacks on Night 4 because one of them did not happen. Perhaps the attack on Suburban was nothing more than a scum scheme to make Suburban look townie. Vote: Suburban Plankton
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 9, 2012 17:36:57 GMT -5
If people aren't up for a mass claim, I suggest we do something like...lynch peeker (since he's disappeared anyway)...then tonight texcat can kill mahaloth and thereby confirm Nanook (and mahaloth when he resurrects, supposedly). Now, it's unlikely that scum will target myself, Nanook, or Suburban since we've all effectively claimed vanilla at this point but none of us are confirmed and are still suspicious. They won't target texcat because her misfires are keeping them in the game at this point, the more death at Night the better for scum. Basically, that means they'll target out of the rest of the pool. I'm assuming at least one out of those of you keeping cagey about your powers and refusing to mass claim are a doctor that can self-protect or something similar since we've only had two doctor roles so far, both of which had serious drawbacks. Which means there's a chance the scum will try and kill someone and fail which would be nice, because then we'd get mahaloth back (supposedly) and we'd have a net loss of 0 at Night and gain a confirmed town. Or we'd out mahaloth and Nanook as scum and that'd be a win too. :Shrug: I had a thought similar to this- if Meeko is claiming a Town power role- I can't think of many power roles worth preserving at this time: I just know Cops and doctors are the powerful ones. If Cop, he'd probably be claiming at this point. If Doc, I'd assume he'd want to keep that quiet. Texcat COULD be used to prove that claim as well, but that's basically taking a stab at an unknown power role, and may not be the smartest idea (Which is why I didn't suggest it). The Nanook/Mahaloth idea though might help us, assuming we do it early enough to give us a buffer for the last Day. Though I admit in my mind, I am nervous about the idea of Mahaloth's alignment if he comes back, but I think that's being overly paranoid. And I am just waiting for Sinjin's Device before I start my unvote/vote counter- just in case she has a negative number or a large positive number (as maybe the opposite of my device), or if she even has numbers at all? I'm noticing though that votes have already been placed without that, so maybe just by Tuesday evening if nothing's written up, I'll just activate my device? And I'm still fine with the Mass Claim idea. I can certainly tell you I was surprised by my role name- I didn't recognize it (!!!). And I consider myself pretty well versed about all things Bats IRL.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 9, 2012 17:39:42 GMT -5
Oh and speaking of numbers. Technically, BillMC's device also has all numbers on it.
pi= 3.16 e= euler's number (2.71828) i= Square root of negative one (if I recall correct).
But it also can spell out Piie. But just some thoughts for those more mathematically inclined.
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Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
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Karma:
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Post by Meeko on Apr 9, 2012 18:26:51 GMT -5
--Snip-- Okay. :deep breath: Once more into the Breach! -seems like a good a quote as any. -Steph So, This is another one of those posts that pinged me at work today*. Tossing this out here........ SBrOwn, others ; Why the signature here? I don't want to read too much into this, but I don't want to ignore something if it is here, regardless. *This might come as a shock to you guys, but I have ADHD. If you can consider a brain that is always changing channels on TV, you might get close to what ADHD is, in general; This post, the Signature, by itself, actually, popped into my head and pingged me, while I was at my retail job today. [Miles away from a computer. I _could_ use my cell phone on my break, but meh, it's a dumbphone. ] Also, per the device that has the symbols, Should we take into consideration that Pi approximates 3, E approximates 2, and i approximates [absolute value] 1 Or was that what (sbrown was it?) was getting at here?
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 9, 2012 19:04:46 GMT -5
Tossing this out here........ SBrOwn, others ; Why the signature here? I don't want to read too much into this, but I don't want to ignore something if it is here, regardless. I signed it because it was a post that had to do more with my stuff from outside of the game. :shrug: I tend to put my name to my more "Serious" posts if you will. Are you asking why I haven't been signing ALL my posts in game? Because that's just a game, I don't need my name everywhere on the internet. But if you're asking why I signed a post apologizing to you guys and noting that real life has been rough on me- well, I guess that seemed the right thing to do. Take ownership of my faults and my mistakes in person.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 9, 2012 20:13:06 GMT -5
I'm kind of waiting to find out about my device before I post too much. I've read SBr0wn in my brain as Samantha Brown because of the tv show. Hi Steph.
Mahaloth would be number one with a bullet if not for the Nanook recruiting thing. Is it possible he was recruited by scum after Nanook recruited him?
I have other concerns and will put them out for discussion tomorrow even if I don't get any new info about my device, ie Tuesday, not Tomorrow.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Apr 9, 2012 21:57:49 GMT -5
Suburban did you miss SisC's explanation of the missing kill on night 2? Your reasons for blocking sinjin don't make much sense to me since SisC explained this on day 4 before we lynched her. Wine or no wine, I think Cookies would have been a better choice. And I am wondering if there were 3 attacks on Night 4 because one of them did not happen. Perhaps the attack on Suburban was nothing more than a scum scheme to make Suburban look townie. Vote: Suburban Plankton Looking at my notes, I did record that SisC told us that Dirx didn't kill on Night 2, so that does indeed explain the 'missing' kill. That suggests that even if Pizza did in fact block sinjin that Night, that's not the explanation for the events of the Night. On Night 4, when I was trying to figure out who to target, I somehow glossed over that fact. My block of sinjin on Night 4 was a bad play, based on a faulty assumption. Sorry. As for Cookies having been a better choice...you may be correct. Hindsight is 20/20, after all. Regarding Night 4, I think that either: - Idle got an extra kill in exchange for outing himself as Scum
- There were only 2 attacks: Lightfoot and myself. Cookies' death was self-inflicted because she activated her protective power.
Personally, I think the former is more likely...and I wonder if it's possible that Idle was the last Scum, and we're now only looking for one or more PFKs.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Apr 9, 2012 22:00:02 GMT -5
Mahaloth would be number one with a bullet if not for the Nanook recruiting thing. Is it possible he was recruited by scum after Nanook recruited him? I would certainly hope not. My guess is that only 3rd-Party/PFK were recruitable. Once mahaloth was recruited once, he was no longer 3rd-Party, so he was no longer recruitable.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 10, 2012 0:08:38 GMT -5
And I am wondering if there were 3 attacks on Night 4 because one of them did not happen. Perhaps the attack on Suburban was nothing more than a scum scheme to make Suburban look townie. I think we need to take a step back. To quote Hoopy's sig line: "The greatest Gasterdness is that which players inflict on themselves rather than anything we mods can do to them." I myself am guilty of this considering I was postulating before that askthepizzaguy made up roleblocking Meeko. But I've always stood by Occam's Razor in mafia: usually the simplest explanations are the ones that make sense. Idle spent a lot of time harping on Suburban, and I think he did it exactly for this fact: to get us to lynch someone the mafia had already tried to kill. Day 5 was going to be a wash as soon as Idle was revealed as scum. Suburban wasn't on any particular radar before that...why would Idle make his scum buddy the center of attention. Now we're scrutinizing Suburban's every move and claim. I...don't think he's scum. Maybe Idle was right and he's a PFK, but...the only PFK I'm worried about at this moment is our errant devicer. I don't think Suburban is the devicer. Personally, I think the former is more likely...and I wonder if it's possible that Idle was the last Scum, and we're now only looking for one or more PFKs. On the other hand, this is just plain silly. 4 scum in a game of 31 people, where the majority of people have power roles? That would be the absolute worst balanced game ever. Suggesting that makes my eye twitch in an uncomfortable way. --- Anyway....next up on my exposing the lurkers agenda: Hal Briston! Come on down! Let's take a look at Hal's last 20 posts! so as town, since you can't make up your mind on who to lynch the best play is no lynch. you do realize that to a great extent this is town's most powerful weapon. and to not utilize it is pretty much like riding into a gun battle with no bullets in your gun. right? In the interest of proper analogies, it's more like riding into a gun battle with a fully loaded gun, but refusing to draw. well, i got the smell toDay. what was hal's smell again? Not to be overly paranoid, but...you first. What did you smell? And for fairness sake, I'll put mine out there in an easily explainable (after the fact) code: P25u39Yep, same here...kerosene is what I smelled as well (subtract 13 from each of the two numbers in P25u39 and then run it through ROT-13, and you get C12h26, the chemical formula of kerosene). So it would seem a very safe guess that you and I were each investigated/visited by the same person these past two nights. I did some searching the other day trying to see if there was someone who had some sort of tie to kerosene in Batman canon, and I came up with several possibilities and one strong possibility. However, I kept those notes on my work computer, so I won't have access to them until tomorrow. D'oh. Hmmm...did I miss something? I didn't know you had a role to be blocked. You seem like a surpising choice for a role block. Not really -- look at it from a scum roleblocker POV. You're going to block someone but the most obvious candidates might have watchers on them. So you take a chance and block someone who is off the grid, and hope that they're someone who is just laying low and collecting good townie info. Ok, back at work with my notes. A search of +Batman +kerosene brings back a ton of results -- one villian or another using kerosene for something is a common plot element in the comics. But there's one time we hear about kerosene more than any other -- someone driving The Batmobile: My theory: Scum, as a team, have access to The Batmobile. They're using it for some sort of nighttime investigative purpose, and the iconic jet booster leaves the tell-tale odor of kerosene. Scum investigated me on Night One and peeker on Night Two. NETA: I also wonder if "The Batmobile" isn't a role on it's own? Hi all -- apologies for the non-participation much of toDay...I've been home from work for three days while The Littlest Briston fights off a sinus/UR infection. No fun for an adult, less so for a six-year-old. I have quite a bit of catching up to do, but I'll get something together by dusk. Back from Doctor Dad duties...sorry again for the non-participation yesterDay. But hey, things have certainly picked up! Hell of a gambit being played here...a smudge which clearly makes me scum. Which clearly makes me not scum. Which clearly makes me scum! And Chronos, KILLER MOTH, who was Town (Vanilla), Good thing there was no name claim there, 'cause I'd have voted to lynch that obvious lie in a fucking heartbeat. Ok, maybe not, but I've have wanted to. Arright, I've not been thrilled with Lightfoot for most of the game. I've gone with the (admittedly not the most reliable thing in the world) "A or B is likely scum" feeling between her and SilverJan for several days now. We apparently have a metric buttload of investigative roles in this game, and every one that turns up town is making Lightfoot appear to be less and less likely to be town as well. So with that, I'm going to...well, "vote Lightfoot" without actually voting for her. Barring any major scum expose', I will before the Day is out, but as much as a button-poker as I am, I'm not going to tempt this box on my chest right now. You do have -5... It's not exactly -1 or -2 just yet. Just saying. I'd venture to at least try to test and give the rest of us (and yourself) more information if possible. But if the device is just going to make you clam up and live in fear- how is that more beneficial to the Town? Actually, I was giving it a test -- what if it's not voting that changes my counter? What if it's just using the word "vote"? What's if it's just making a post? It really could be anything that could affect the display, since we have no idea what effect the devises have. I'd be ticked if I were limited to only five posts before this baby blows up, killing me and three people around me, but for all we know it's going to spray out confetti and whipped cream. But, there was no change from either of those two possibilities, so the next test is... Vote LightfootIdle Thoughts: The wording of his claim is odd I agree. The powers line especially "POWERS: If targeted for Nightkill, the first time you have a 50% chance of killing your assailant via the poison you secrete." What's with the first time? It seems almost implied that Idle will die if NK'd but has a chance of taking the attacker out with him. But then, the "first time" implies he will survive. Does he have a 50% chance of survival? Then what happens? It's unclear in a way that the other role PM's haven't been. Just a WAG, but perhaps that means "If you are targeted for nightkilling by multiple people, you have a 50% of killing the first one that targeted you". I just noticed my Karma went down from 6 to 5. Looks like it's a 4 now. Hmmm... Damn....after 48 hours of not being able to catch up, I come back to an unreadable page. Will this be an hour-or-two-ha-ha-April-Fools thing, or am I checking back tomorrow? Right, I'm back after an unexpected* couple of days of very limited computer time...just jumped to the end of the thread to post this, back in about an hour after catching up. *Well, it should have been expected, but once again I overestimated my multi-tasking abilities. Ok, done. First things first... Vote Idle ThoughtsI have a bad feeling that there is something else going on with his constant voting for me, but 'eh, fuggit, voting him anyway. I skimmed most of his posts simply because they're bound to be a mix of good and bad info swirled together with a creamy mix of utter nonsense, so there's no real point trying to sift through the bullshit to find the one or two bits of honestly he threw in. That, plus the fact that I'm trying to surreptitiously read this at work means I have to zip past his obnoxious 80-point font posts. Other bits... Mass claim -- don't like it (since I don't see a good risk/reward return), but I could be talked into it SP's "PIS slip" -- I fully agree with Ulla in #136...that smacked of a PIS setup and definitely makes me glance askance at Charlie. The chest thingers -- Red herrings, all of 'em. I will (semi-)confidently say (without any inside info) that not a damn thing is going to happen to Pollux Oil at dusk (at least, not from a device standpoint). Would anybody very much object if I ended the Day about an hour early? I'm fine with it. Har. De. Fucking well har. Ok, kinda funny...However, I think we shouldn't make the assumption that all the devices are harmless. Nor should we assume that all the rest of the devices are harmful. I was just thinking that...I could see a role given where they have a half-dozen or so unique contraptions, but the person doesn't know what they do. Or maybe they do know. Or maybe, or maybe....either way, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the devices is a Very Bad Thing to have. Meeko's vote on Hal didn't count; and my vote on Idle didn't count. Either Story has miscounted in a similar manner on both days, or someone has been cancelling votes. Story - can you confirm the final vote counts are correct for those days?Innnnnnnnteresting. If Story confirms this, I wonder if my device has something to do with this? (Although that wouldn't explain Idle) I have an odd read on Hal. The Batmobile research strikes me as townie, especially since I don't really foresee scum having the presence of mind to "have information at work" when it would be fake information, since they would already know if the Batmobile existed or not. However, he's very hesitant and worried at first about his device, but by the time I set mine off he was "(semi-)confident" that they aren't lethal. It's quite an abrupt turn. Also, scum would know that Lightfoot was telling the truth about her investigative powers, so I'm semi-suspicious of anyone who was a part of the repeat bandwagons on her. In addition to that, we have the data of the messenger smudging Hal slightly via Batmobile, and Idle voting for Hal both on Day 4 and Day 5. Gun to my head, I'd lean not scum on Hal after taking everything into account, but not confident enough on him to not be third-party/PFK.
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Post by Nanook on Apr 10, 2012 0:46:46 GMT -5
Sorry for not being around more. I do tax work, and as you can imagine this is the busiest time of the year for me. On top of that, I have a bunch of projects and stuff due for school. It's just a bad week and a half all around.
I think we should mass claim. This idea that we know the scum have cover roles is based on what exactly? Ed didn't claim, even though he should have known he was going to die. Mhaye obviously didn't claim. Idle's claim was awful, and we totally should have lynched him as soon as he made it. Are we really going to be convinced of the existence of cover roles based on one crappy false claim?
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Post by texcat on Apr 10, 2012 0:52:47 GMT -5
Regarding Night 4, I think that either: - Idle got an extra kill in exchange for outing himself as Scum
- There were only 2 attacks: Lightfoot and myself. Cookies' death was self-inflicted because she activated her protective power.
Personally, I think the former is more likely...and I wonder if it's possible that Idle was the last Scum, and we're now only looking for one or more PFKs. I have to agree with Pollux that there is no way there was only 4 scum out of 31. They might have started with only 4, but would have to be able to recruit more than 1 if that were the case. And I suspect that they started with 5 or 6 and then recruited more. Scum clearly got an extra kill because of Idle. That accounts for 2 attacks. Idle told us that scum killed Cookies and Lightfoot and sent their power-stripper after you. The power-stripper theory had more holes than my 30 year old socks. But in any case, your 1 or 2 should be 1 and 2 and then some. I speculated yesterday that scum got more than 1 kill in return for outing Idle, as I still don't think 1 for 1 is a good deal for scum. And you might be right about Cookies self-destructing. I'm still worried about why Charlie didn't get a blocked message. After Pollux's bomb did not kill him, I am less worried about the bomber. He is likely a harmless 3rd party and not a threat to our wincon.
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Post by texcat on Apr 10, 2012 0:55:44 GMT -5
Nanook, you forgot about Pizza. His claim looked pretty legit to me.
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Post by BillMc on Apr 10, 2012 4:35:24 GMT -5
It'll at the very least net us information. Honestly, I just want to get people involved. I'm a little tired of the defeatist attitude a few people have and the lack of true analysis. <snip> I'll go ahead and give you an example of my frustration, and why I think a mass claim is a good idea. May I present to you, mahaloth's last 20 posts <snip> This is the epitome of lazy play. There has been little to no analysis or comment on things happening. He's not actively engaging in most conversations unless they're related to himself. Furthermore, he's been continuously voting sinjin based on, as far as I can see, information given to us by a known scum. And with the masons' death, he and Nanook are the closest things we have to confirmed townies. IF it wasn't for the fact I trust Nanook at this point, I'd say string mahaloth up because his contributions have been so few that he could almost be actively anti-town by not participating. Plus, the continued votes for sinjin make absolutely no sense to me. I see where you are coming from and agree with you. I'm not a huge poster, never have been, but I try to have some commentary/analysis when I do. I also agree with your comments on Mahaloth -- tho that line in his PM of his alignment not being confirmed when he is resurrected still bothers me; and yes I acknowledge that Nanook things that such a mechanism would be gastardly - but why make that statement in the PM? Mahaloth could be playing a very cagey game. After a bad start by scum, he takes the opportunity to join town - as a 3rd party joining town actually reduces his chance of winning as he can no longer win with town. So now we all start to get suspicious of him for his votes, his lack of contribution, and it has been suggested we kill him, which would confirm Nanook. Now, *if* he resets to 3rd party on resurrection, he's back to hedging his bets on both sides - so having Texcat NK him may actually play into his plan. We'd have to lynch him to remove all possibility of him reverting to 3rd party on resurrection - which would be a wasted lynch if he doesn't revert - catch22. Although I must say, if there is a normal doctor role out there that can protect anyone with no drawbacks, you and I are going to have words when the game is over because you missed a few glaringly obvious protects these past few Nights. I very much doubt there is a 'normal' Doctor in this game. Look at all of the roles we've seen so far; they pretty much all have some limitation. We had a whole handful of Cop roles, all of which were limited to a specific type of investigation. I had a Doc role, but I blocked my target. We have Nanook and peeker both claiming one-shot abilities, and mahaloth with a two-shot ability. Having just written that, it makes me wonder about texcat. Sister Coyote, our confirmed (because she's dead) Town Vig, was compulsive, with limited exceptions. texcat I beleive is the only person who has claimed an 'unlimited' ability. It stands out in rather stark contrast to all of the other claims. 3 protective roles does seem unlikely. There was a discussion elsewhere about Doc's playing it safe and always self protecting, and folk suggesting that Docs shouldnt be allowed to self protect. I personally think that Plankton's role is a decent compromise, one shot self protect, tho removing his power afterwards may be a little harsh. One for the post game debate. I will ask this question, though: Does anybody still consider peeker semi-confirmed town? I could be the only one that's wondering about the authenticity of the original message to Gadarene. Personally, I'd like it if Gadarene could ask our mod a few questions about the PM he received in private to help sort the issue out. I think we need to take all messages with a pinch of salt - from the rules thread: Underlining mine - the question is really was the information Gadarene received directly stated by the moderator - or was it Peeker effectively saying "I am town". Gadarene has kept a very low profile and apart from confirming Peeker, hasn't contributed much to the game at all. Also, per the device that has the symbols, Should we take into consideration that Pi approximates 3, E approximates 2, and i approximates [absolute value] 1 Or was that what (sbrown was it?) was getting at here? OMG - I understand Meeko!!! That's brilliant pi-e-i-0 becomes 3-2-1-0 I'm kind of waiting to find out about my device before I post too much. I've read SBr0wn in my brain as Samantha Brown because of the tv show. Hi Steph. Mahaloth would be number one with a bullet if not for the Nanook recruiting thing. Is it possible he was recruited by scum after Nanook recruited him? I have other concerns and will put them out for discussion tomorrow even if I don't get any new info about my device, ie Tuesday, not Tomorrow. So you are of the opinion that your device might be harmful? Regarding Night 4, I think that either: - Idle got an extra kill in exchange for outing himself as Scum
- There were only 2 attacks: Lightfoot and myself. Cookies' death was self-inflicted because she activated her protective power.
Personally, I think the former is more likely...and I wonder if it's possible that Idle was the last Scum, and we're now only looking for one or more PFKs. This confuses me - we had two deaths, and you say someone attempted to kill you -- so that is three killing actions. Your first option implies that the scum made all three attacks -- that does seem a bit over powered; tho I guess two extra kill attempts in exchange for being mod confirmed as scum may be a decent trade off. The second option seems unlikely. Cookies appears to decided Texcat was scum: Sorry Sister C. Not looking so good for you anymore, Texcat. Good job with the hiding in plain sight again scummies. Shall we dance? So I don't see her protecting her -- and given the fireball colour in Cookies PM I would have expected some nice fireballs in the opening colour if she had gone boom. So either the scum got three kills, or someone else took a shot. Texcat claims that she did not kill that night; if she is truthful, then there is someone else out there with a killing power. After Pollux's bomb did not kill him, I am less worried about the bomber. He is likely a harmless 3rd party and not a threat to our wincon. So Pollux considers the device planter to be the PFK, while you think they are a harmless 3rd party? If they are a 3rd party that wins with any side, why bother planting devices? Possibly the devices and the notes are from the same person and just a distraction.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 10, 2012 6:51:40 GMT -5
All - apologies for my ongoing absence - Internet is still an issue for more than quick messages. A vote count, answers to all questions, a full device description, and a pony will all be forthcoming tonight come hell or high water.
To answer a question from above - all apparent voting irregularities to date have been the result of moderator error and not game related. I will explicitly draw attention to any evident irregularities that actual result from player powers and/or game mechanics, in order to prevent confusion; unless I do this, assume that anything that looks in error is a function of me being less-than-smart.
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Post by scáthach on Apr 10, 2012 7:27:35 GMT -5
One of the reasons I targeted gnarlycharlie last night was that he denied having been blocked by Suburban. Lightfoot said she was blocked night 1, and Gadarene said he was blocked night 2. Sinjin had already said that she wasn't doing anything to block at night, so it was not surprising that she did not get a message about being blocked. So it looked to me like charlie might have been trying to hide something. Now that we know that charlie was town and had a special role, I wonder why he was not blocked. Did gnarlycharlie deny being blocked or just say that he didn't know if he was blocked?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Apr 10, 2012 10:24:08 GMT -5
Did gnarlycharlie deny being blocked or just say that he didn't know if he was blocked? What he said was "no notes about being blocked by Mr. Freeze."He never said whether or not he actually attempted an action that Night (or any other Night or Day, for that matter).
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Apr 10, 2012 10:38:18 GMT -5
I wonder if it's possible that Idle was the last Scum, and we're now only looking for one or more PFKs. Having wondered about this for a bit now, I agree that it seems unlikely. Thought I'm not sure that's because 4 is too small a number for the Scum team...I'm not about to make any guesses as to how story put this thing together. I come to that conclusion because the 2 deaths last Night are much easier to explain as "one texcat, one Scum" than "one texcat, one 'other killing power that we don't appear to have seen until last Night'". I have no real issue with gnarly as a Vig target, and Total was a logical Scum target, so last Night seems well explained in that manner. So I agree we're probably looking for at least one more Scum and possibly one or more PFKs.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Apr 10, 2012 10:52:37 GMT -5
Here are the deaths for each Night, with the likely causes: Night 1Merestil Haye - texcat, Vig kill astral rejection - Dirx/Sister Coyote Vig kill guiri - Scum kill Night 2Archangel - texcat, Vig kill Inner Stickler - Scum kill (Dirx/SisC did not kill) Night 3Rysto - texcat, Vig kill Chronos - Dirx/SisC, vig kill Silver Jan - Scum kill Night 4LightFoot - Scum kill? Cookies - Self kill? (Suburban Plankton - attacked but survived) - Idle extra kill? (texcat did not kill) Night 5gnarlycharlie - texcat, Vig kill Total ullz - Scum kill Everything looks pretty tidy with the exception of Night 4. There were two deaths and one failed kill attempt. texcat has told us that she did not target anyone. We can account for all the events if we assume that Cookies activated her protection, killing herself, and that Idle had an extra attack in exchange for revealing himself as Scum. If we're not prepared to accept that version of events, then I see three possibilities: - texcat is lying, and she did kill someone
- Suburban is lying, and nobody attacked him
- we have another, as yet unidentified, killing party
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Post by texcat on Apr 10, 2012 11:22:09 GMT -5
Bombed: Pollux, SBrown, Hal, BillMc, sinjin Not bombed: peeker, Nanook, scathach, Suburban, Gad, Texcat, Meeko, Mahaloth
I believe peeker and Nanook's claims. Either Suburban's claim is true or he is scum. I am the vig. It looks to me like the bomber has to be among scathach, Gad, Meeko, or Mahaloth. Meeko and Gad both claim to have been blocked at some point. Is it possible that Mahaloth started as 3rd party bomber, instead of 3rd party scotsmanish?
And there still remains the possiblity that the bomber bombed himself.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 14:49:23 GMT -5
OMG - I understand Meeko!!! That's brilliant pi-e-i-0 becomes 3-2-1-0 I came up with it too.... Would you guys like me to claim as well after i do my whole unvote/vote thing? I don't think the devices are lethal, so I'm not as worried about that part, but I am also okay with the idea of a mass claim if it'll help the Town out more. The one thing I will note- for a player who you've all described as "Ooh Shiny" and a "Button Pusher", it seems like Hal has displayed a 180 from his "known" playing style to how he has been playing now. I'm actually most suspicious of his behavior after having the device put on him. He's quieted down, he's certainly not trying to vote/unvote or do anything to shake his device up or let it activate further. This does not fit the description of the player you guys seemed to be describing on Day 1. I find it suspicious, because Mafia is a Team Sport, and we're not individuals- Town wins as a Town, but Hal's behavior seems a bit... selfish/protective since he's been marked with a device. He may say he thinks it's not a lethal device, but his behavior seems to be one that does not WANT to trigger the device in any way or to test how to figure it out either. Which makes me wonder if he's trying to protect something about himself/his role/powers. So that's my main suspicion currently.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 14:51:37 GMT -5
I'm also suspicious because the first Bomb (pollux) seems to imply Hal in some way. Maybe more so than referring to Peeker even, since the Sheep seems to reference Hal more so than Peek's mentioning of sheep.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 10, 2012 15:15:08 GMT -5
After Pollux's bomb did not kill him, I am less worried about the bomber. He is likely a harmless 3rd party and not a threat to our wincon. I actually think the devices not going off puts it more in the wheelhouse of this game. A PFK who puts devices on people and has to have X devices in place to win...but the devices are harmless and don't do anything if they're detonated. So the devices are entirely psychological and the devicer has to play up that they may be dangerous. I definitely wouldn't underestimate the devicer and that they may be PFK. I'd be very surprised if there wasn't at least one PFK in the mix in the game, although it wouldn't surprise me if storyteller made a game of nothing but town, scum, and third-parties that don't interfere with win conditions. This confuses me - we had two deaths, and you say someone attempted to kill you -- so that is three killing actions. Your first option implies that the scum made all three attacks -- that does seem a bit over powered; tho I guess two extra kill attempts in exchange for being mod confirmed as scum may be a decent trade off. I don't think the scum got two extra kills for outing a scum...I feel like that's too powerful, but if everyone else thinks it's plausible...eh. We also aren't taking into account that we may have (or had) a jack-of-all trades that had a one-shot kill, and they took a swing at Suburban. While it's unlikely, we have no idea what gnarycharlie's powers were. He could have had a one-shot...or there may still be a jack living amongst us. I'd hope if there is a pro-town person who can explain everything and they're still alive, they'd come forward so we don't continue this merry-go-round of texcat/Suburban suspicion and put the matter to rest. Bombed: Pollux, SBrown, Hal, BillMc, sinjin Not bombed: peeker, Nanook, scathach, Suburban, Gad, Texcat, Meeko, Mahaloth I believe peeker and Nanook's claims. Either Suburban's claim is true or he is scum. I am the vig. It looks to me like the bomber has to be among scathach, Gad, Meeko, or Mahaloth. Meeko and Gad both claim to have been blocked at some point. Is it possible that Mahaloth started as 3rd party bomber, instead of 3rd party scotsmanish? And there still remains the possiblity that the bomber bombed himself. I think it's looking more and more likely that scathach is our devicer. Mad bomber rules are usually yourself + bombs for the tallying for the win condition. If the devicer is a mad bomber (and I think they are) they probably didn't put a device on themselves because they want to meet their win condition (and are probably close). Problem is, we know scathach is not-scum. Lynching her is a risky maneuver because while she may be the devicer, it's technically a mislynch if we're right and definitely a mislynch if we're wrong...however we have so many devices in play right now I'm a little worried of how close the devicer may be to their wincon. Another reason I think a mass claim would be helpful, except now it's way too late in the Day for everyone to do it and have time for analysis. Ugh.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 15:27:32 GMT -5
I'd be very surprised if there wasn't at least one PFK in the mix in the game, although it wouldn't surprise me if storyteller made a game of nothing but town, scum, and third-parties that don't interfere with win conditions. Just amusing to read this sentence. So you're surprised if he didn't, you're not surprised if he didn't too.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 15:31:37 GMT -5
I think it's looking more and more likely that scathach is our devicer. Mad bomber rules are usually yourself + bombs for the tallying for the win condition. If the devicer is a mad bomber (and I think they are) they probably didn't put a device on themselves because they want to meet their win condition (and are probably close). Problem is, we know scathach is not-scum. Lynching her is a risky maneuver because while she may be the devicer, it's technically a mislynch if we're right and definitely a mislynch if we're wrong...however we have so many devices in play right now I'm a little worried of how close the devicer may be to their wincon. I think you're over thinking the role WAY too much. You're not even trying to consider the devices from a Town perspective. Let me help you out. Would it make you feel better if there were no more Devices anymore? :Shrug: I'm the devicer, and I'm quite Town, and I don't want you to get that distracted by the devices. I'm trying to figure them out them myself a plenty and what they do. If BillMC, will allow it, I'll make a full claim. Happy? Or I can just claim now. I'm just curious if this much'll trigger Bill's Device, or if he actually needs a full role claim for his Device.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 15:33:21 GMT -5
Actually: Test #2 for Bill's Device:
My name is Anarky.
Will name along trigger said device? I'm thinking if not, I'll do full claim after Storyteller posts at Night tonight. But if people are gonna freak out or say I'm wasting time, I'll post now too- I'm online for the next 1.5 hours anyways.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 10, 2012 15:37:21 GMT -5
Here's scathach's last 20 posts: I'm fine with voting for pizza, too..although he wasn't much on my radar before toDay (and before voting for me). I might have to admit I'm a little biased, though, due to his vote on me. Vote Askthepizzaguy I was the first to vote Pizza yesterday, but I'm not feeling it as much today and I think the bandwagon is surprising. ^This kind of stuff feels like genuine townie frustration. (Although it never fails to surprise me when people get upset over being voted in a game that is all about voting) Do we know if his role claim is verifiable? Given that he claims to have blocked sinjin, would sinjin have been aware of the fact? Unless I'm reading this wrong, surely he is playing how he said he would as town. Individualistic and whatnot? Suspicion of AskThePizzaGuy must be tempered by the fact that he is sharing a wealth of information that helps town. The amount of information, given the amount of experience he claims to have is valuable, and we should not kill the goose that lays the golden egg here. I believe his experience gives us information. (and if he's telling the truth, extremely valuable information), and so it's possible that he'll be proven a liar, or give us useful information. At that time we can lynch him, then. Could you point me to an example of some golden eggs here? What information are you talking about? I'm happy to vote for Hal or Lightfoot again today (for the same reasons I voted for them yesterDay and Day One (well, Hal, Day One). Why didn't you? Were you waiting for support? Also, I will note that Idle has said before that he always claims immediately as town. Why wait a day? What does it "not being an everyone is a power role" game have to do with your claim? Surely that only makes it more anti-town to claim since you're revealing a town power? And since you're A-OK with claiming even when it's anti-town to do so, why even mention the weird not-quite-a-justification about all-power games? I've always said (and I can find quotes for you if you'd like me to back it up) that I DO NOT claim on Day One either if I'm playing in a game with no vanilla, which I thought this was. Fair enough - this does seem consistent so. In the case with everyone being a power role, however, it's not as stressful for me to carry the burden of having a power role...since scum will probably want EVERYONE dead equally...thus I have a chance to stay hidden longer. Surely it wouldn't be stressful in this game since being killed by scum is exactly what you want for the possibility of a revenge kill on them? Anyway it's your role so play it how you play it I guess -fingers crossed that a break from Mafia for a while might let you come back after a sabbatical and start enjoying it again whoa! the link leads to a post of sinjin commenting on my post. that is quite misleading. should we check if your other links are accurate? How is it misleading? Your post says exactly what Lightfoot claims it does - and if anything gives more context via including sinjin's reply read it again. first of all, Lightfoot says *I* asked sinjin. the exact post she linked is a post by sinjin not me. second, that post was meant for all. it was a comment on the lack of discussion since Pleo was a runaway wagon at the time. not accurate at all. Lightfoot linked a post from sinjin, in which you were quoted saying "Do we see each other again d2". Maybe you didn't mean it as a question for sinjin but you had quoted her so it's not an unreasonable assumption. I fail to see how it's misleading. I'm going to Vote: Hal Briston He was around earlier toDay, but didn't mention anything game related except kerosene speculation, and he hasn't been back since. It looks like someone trying to lay low after being a target of suspicion yesterday. Yep, same here...kerosene is what I smelled as well (subtract 13 from each of the two numbers in P25u39 and then run it through ROT-13, and you get C12h26, the chemical formula of kerosene). So it would seem a very safe guess that you and I were each investigated/visited by the same person these past two nights. I did some searching the other day trying to see if there was someone who had some sort of tie to kerosene in Batman canon, and I came up with several possibilities and one strong possibility. However, I kept those notes on my work computer, so I won't have access to them until tomorrow. D'oh. He waited a day to come back with the actual speculation of what he thought the kerosene was. Surely the Batmobile is pretty memorable and wouldn't actually require going back to check notes? He also never mentions what the other possibilities he said he had come up with actually were. Could be that he was waiting for approval from the scum team to come up with a theory, and one that makes him seem more likely to be town. After all the Batmobile would have no reason to visit scum right? I'm aware that this is a one off, I could also be persuaded to move my vote to sinjin later. Purely on the speculation that her being roleblocked explains the lack of extra night kill and because I tend to think Pizza isn't scum. But I'd like to go back and review all the roleblocking and roleblock claims that were going on also. Is it normal that someone wouldn't get a notification that they were roleblocked if they took no action? I could also cheerfully vote Meeko because his reasoning all along has been incomprehensible to me. I genuinely don't understand how he could suggest all third-partys should claim (sure, then let scum pick whoever they want to recruit if they can), or that we shouldn't vote Pizza even if we think he's scummy just because he's contributing. Much of what you say I can see, but this point I disagree with you on. I've put a lot more work into this game than I think I should, especially since the audience is not receptive to my ideas. I feel I'm wasting my time at times. It's no use going into more detail if people don't agree with what your premise is in the first place. I have still attempted to explain myself, but that's only out of a love for the game and a desire to help the team, than any serious belief that I'll make a difference at this point. I've come halfway on things, and as uncomfortable as I am playing a supportive role, I will attempt to do so. I see that I'm likely the lynchee of the round, so all I can do now is state where I stand on everyone I have an opinion on, in case it becomes useful to someone. Game strategy discussion, well... I've weighed in on it and we've rejected it so I've nothing further to add there. I'm not sure what else is expected of me. What have I not done? Eh, I think part of the problem here is that trying to organise a strategy for Mafia is like herding cats. No one trusts each other enough to agree on an overarching strategy like that (IMO anyway). That doesn't mean you should get disheartened though, people are still reading and considering what you say, and remember confirmation bias, people are more likely to comment if they disagree with something than if they agree so there may be more people agreeing with you than you think. Look at it this way - the two people you think are scum are now the main competing bandwagons with you. Anyhoo, since you're around, want to comment on any of the players other than Idle or Sinjin? I'd love to hear someone else's thoughts on Hal since no one is really talking about him and I'm tempted to move my vote away since it's a one-off. Damn you Pizza that is the second damn time you've taken me in with your frustrated townie act Scum would use this, in order to force the Mod's hand, for lack of better words. I got a message from the Mod! [[Nevermind that I in effect wrote it myself, and looked it over with my scum-mates before we finalized it.]] is light years better thanI just got this message from my Scum mate Scummy McScumsalot.
Can we disprove this, against Gad and Peeks? Uh, why wouldn't they just lie exactly? With RL being so bad at the moment this is my escapism and I am sorry if I am not making my own arguments, I am devouring everything that is written and then come to the wrong conclusion as always. Idle, go for it, you know I'm not very good at this game Sorry to hear things are tough in RL - hope things turn a corner for you soon Bloodshed last Night, sheesh. I still find myself coming back to finding Hal and Lightfoot the most suspicious of everyone so far....although I admit my suspicious of Hal is mostly biased due to what I believe to be hypocritical voting for me on Day One. Lightfoot is another matter, though. While we've seen the names in this game are not always linked to side (with pengiun being on the side of Batman), I still can't see how Robin ever, under any circumstances, worked with the baddies against Batman. Even Catwoman, if I remember correctly, was pro-Batman sometimes. I can see her going both ways, really. Pengiun? Less so, but wasn't there one episode where he worked with Batman? I dunno, I never saw the original show and I never read the comics, but I thought I had read something about him working with Batman one time before. Anyway, Robin on the other hand...isn't he Batman's right hand basically? Hmm - you kind of half think that once maybe you saw the Penguin working with Batman, but you're dead certain Robin has never worked against Batman? (Despite people pointing out already that there was one Robin who did in fact work against Batman) I wouldn't mind a LightFoot lynch at this point, though the information gleaned even if she does flip as scum doesn't seem as incisive as a Mahaloth lynch would be with the information we'd get about Nanook, who has also been niggling around in the back of my mind since back when we were still debating whether Nanook should try and recruit Mahaloth. With only Townie deaths last night and not very much solid information gleaned from those deaths, the burden of the unconfirmed is just growing into a heavier burden for the Town to continue to carry. Surely Nanook would be a better lynch if that's the way you're thinking? Also, what exactly is the burden of the unconfirmed? At the risk of a snuggling three-way with Pollux and SBrown, I have come to hold them both in rather Townie on my evolving list. I'll even go so far as to say that I'd be willing to let him whatever deadline he wants in counting his device down to zero, if only to hopefully benefit from his analysis for as long as possible. If you think Pollux is town, why would you be ok with him possibly killing himself? Sorry, everyone, I was posting as I caught up, hence the irritating multiposting. Vote: ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies She seems entirely too cavalier about killing people. Suggesting lynching Mahaloth over Pollux even though Maha has claimed a power and Pollux has not. Wants Pollux to activate his device (incidentally Pollux, I don't really think you should), despite the fact that we don't have a clue what it does. I don't like her continued insistence that people being "unconfirmed" is such a bad thing. In a lot of mafia games, people don't really get 100% confirmed except by lynch or NK - so it's not the huge disadvantage she seems to imply. It seems more like an excuse to lynch into the claimed pool for the dubious benefit of "confirming" the survivors. As for other people: Idle Thoughts: The wording of his claim is odd I agree. The powers line especially "POWERS: If targeted for Nightkill, the first time you have a 50% chance of killing your assailant via the poison you secrete." What's with the first time? It seems almost implied that Idle will die if NK'd but has a chance of taking the attacker out with him. But then, the "first time" implies he will survive. Does he have a 50% chance of survival? Then what happens? It's unclear in a way that the other role PM's haven't been. However, PizzaGuy was the first to point out flaws with Idle's claim which puts me off voting him a little. Hal Briston: Nothing has increased or decreased my suspicion for him really. Sinjin: With askthepizzaguys scum flip, I'm less likely to believe that his claimed block of her prevented the 3rd night kill. Meeko: Is still approaching the game orthogonally from me. I'm pretty sure you meant to say Nanook a few times in there instead of Pollux. Dammit! I keep mixing them up and I don't know why :/ NETA Sorry if my discussion of death as method of the Town gaining information is an affront to anyone's delicate sensibilities, but that is not a concept I came up with. It is kinda a major facet of the game. I, for one, fear swooning if all this morbid talk continues Sorry all, wasn't around this weekend and Mondays are a killer for me. Will catch up now. Vote: Idle Thoughts I also hope this finally puts to rest the whole debate of good guys and bad guys being town. How so? So far there seem's to be an adequate canon explanation for everyone being on whatever side they were on except Penguin. Someone did try to kill me last Night. As I said, I don't know who it was, but I received a PM at Dawn saying in part (with the rest coming shortly Ok if we run with the steaming bowl of WIFOM Idle's been throwing around it wouldn't be too ridiculous to have surviving a NK be a 3rd party power rather than a town power. I fail to see how protecting or role blocking would be though, assuming you've been telling the truth about that. Any word from the blocked/protected people about noticing being encased in a wall of ice at all? So far the only really good pro-town power is Nanook's one-shot recruitment. Is there a reason we're taking Mahaloth and Nanook as confirmed? Nanook claims to have recruited Mahaloth sure, but for all we know it was scum recruitment or some such? I lean town on both of them, I'm just wary of saying they're both confirmed. One of the reasons I targeted gnarlycharlie last night was that he denied having been blocked by Suburban. Lightfoot said she was blocked night 1, and Gadarene said he was blocked night 2. Sinjin had already said that she wasn't doing anything to block at night, so it was not surprising that she did not get a message about being blocked. So it looked to me like charlie might have been trying to hide something. Now that we know that charlie was town and had a special role, I wonder why he was not blocked. Did gnarlycharlie deny being blocked or just say that he didn't know if he was blocked? ----- Few things of note: Her hypothesis about Hal re: Batmobile did make me think. If the Batmobile was the high point of his research, I'm pretty sure that would be easy to remember instead of a random goon from the Batmanverse. I'll have to rethink my position on Hal. However, scathach encouraged me not to detonate my device and voted against Cookies since she seemed to be "so cavalier about death." She also switches opinions on Nanook/mahaloth pretty quickly: one of the reasons she votes Cookies is because Cookies was insistent they aren't confirmed, then the next Day turns right around and asks why we're treating Nanook/mahaloth as confirmed. This makes me lean very heavily towards scathach being our devicer...the question becoming do we think the devicer is out to steal the win, and if so how much time do we have before they meet their win condition? Should we put the scum hunt on hold to take out the devicer? Let tex try it at Night or play chicken with the scum? Since of course the devicer will steal their win, too, if they're PFK.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 15:38:43 GMT -5
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 15:39:52 GMT -5
I'll just wait over here, Pollux, until you finish reading.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 10, 2012 15:40:43 GMT -5
I think it's looking more and more likely that scathach is our devicer. Mad bomber rules are usually yourself + bombs for the tallying for the win condition. If the devicer is a mad bomber (and I think they are) they probably didn't put a device on themselves because they want to meet their win condition (and are probably close). Problem is, we know scathach is not-scum. Lynching her is a risky maneuver because while she may be the devicer, it's technically a mislynch if we're right and definitely a mislynch if we're wrong...however we have so many devices in play right now I'm a little worried of how close the devicer may be to their wincon. I think you're over thinking the role WAY too much. You're not even trying to consider the devices from a Town perspective. Let me help you out. Would it make you feel better if there were no more Devices anymore? :Shrug: I'm the devicer, and I'm quite Town, and I don't want you to get that distracted by the devices. I'm trying to figure them out them myself a plenty and what they do. If BillMC, will allow it, I'll make a full claim. Happy? Or I can just claim now. I'm just curious if this much'll trigger Bill's Device, or if he actually needs a full role claim for his Device. Boy, this just makes all that research I did into scathach's posts worthless. Funny thing is, Anarky was one of the minor villains that popped up in my research towards who might be bombing people...but his bombs were lethal so I dismissed him. Interesting...although you're going to have to try really hard to convince me you're town and not a third party win stealer. You're telling me you don't know anything about your own devices?
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 10, 2012 15:46:25 GMT -5
You're telling me you don't know anything about your own devices? -I know they're non-lethal. -The Devices (as far as my knowledge provide Clues- what sort of clues... I don't know that). -I don't know what they'll appear as, and I don't know what happens when they detonate (but I do know they will not kill the target). -And I know the creators of the devices are the people in the Spoiler Threads. Would you like my Role PM or would you mind waiting for story? I assume I'll be the easy Lynch for toDay, but I'm trying to help out the best I can here by providing information, because you and others are getting distracted by the Devices. Of course- the easiest play is to say now that I'm the mad bomber that NEEDS the devices to detonate, so damned if you do, damned if you don't. :shrug: I did what I thought was best for Town, and I don't mind you asking me questions.
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