|
Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 11:39:57 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 11:47:39 GMT -5
We should absolutely talk about it, but we shouldn't be voting for anyone but the person who admited to being a Do Gooder. I must have missed something... It had to be pointed out to me too, don't worry.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 12:01:18 GMT -5
If she IS PFK, maybe she's really a secret scum, like there was in the pirate game? Maybe she IS a survivor but wins at the exclusion of the rest of us? Either way, I'm not sure it's safe to assume it's safe to leave her alive. True, but as I said earlier, I'd rather lose to PFK than scum. The numbers most likely sit at 6 town, 3 scum, 1 PFK. So if we take out Hawk today and he's scum. We will be at the level of 5 town, 2 scum, and 1 PFK tomorrow. So if we take out PFK the next day we'll have 4 town, 2 scum the day after that. This brings us to a situation where if we mislynch, we will have 2 town and 2 scum the day after that one. Now, I believe that scum have to number greater than town to actually win, but this means that town have to agree on who to vote for AND they have to win the tossup. Even if they do, the next day ends up with a 1 and 1. Once again, town has to rely on luck. So town only has 25% chance of winning after two mislynches, and that's if they agree on who the scum are when there's more than one of them. We can only safely afford one mislynch. We have to get lucky to win with two mislynches. We are guaranteed to lose with three. Lynching the PFK gives us no real options after that point. That's why lynching the bird in hand is best toDay. Maybe something will become clearer on Day 8. I don't understand this thought of "I'd rather lose to PFK". A loss is a loss, whether it's to PFK or scum, or whatever. You can say it's worse to lose to scum because they're the main guys or whatever, or you can say it's worse to lose to PFK because the odds are so long we have no business losing to them. The point is, I'm not playing to not lose, I'm playing to win. And I'm not saying we should lynch DBI Today. In fact, I think it'd probably be a bad idea until we sort out which investigator is lying. What I AM saying is that she probably needs to be lynched eventually because we have precisely zero reason to believe she's ONLY a survivor, ESPECIALLY after what tdpatriots turned out to be. In fact, I'd say she makes a nice backup lynch. Try and find scum, if we don't, we lynch her. OTOH, if she is a survivor that wins exclusive to us, if we don't lynch her 'til after the last scum is dead, we've already lost. So, really, if there's three scum left, then we need to lynch her before we lynch the third scum.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 12:05:09 GMT -5
Well, I read that, but I took it purely as fluff. I did remember somebody asking about RoOsh's claim in the Three Kingdoms game, but I don't remember when or where.
|
|
Darth Sensitive
Mome Rath
With great power comes great responsibility / That's the catchphrase of Old Uncle Ben
Posts: 18
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Darth Sensitive on Apr 25, 2008 12:05:33 GMT -5
How does claiming Wang Chung make you a dogooder - I know the story of roosh hating shoes, but what?
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 12:10:37 GMT -5
Regarding Rysto -
After some consideration, I think maybe my mistrust of Rysto was misplaced. Consider: we started this game, it now appears, with 24 players, of which fully half were purely anti-Town. You'd expect that, with the Town facing odds that long (generally anti-Town elements make up only a quarter to a third of the population), there would be strong pro-Town power roles to make up for it.
But if Rysto is not really a pro-Town alignment investigator, that means that the Mods gave us:
- Two role-blockers, who given the evident construction of the town were more likely to play as anti-Town.
- One Detective and one Doctor, both massively crippled in their ability to carry out their primary function (the Doctor couldn't protect anyone without keeping them from acting, and the Detective couldn't really perform the real primary duty of a Detective - confirming Townies - because she risked killing anyone she thought might be Town if she targeted them at Night.
- Four Masons, with a separate win condition at the outset
- One Bodyguard, whose powers we still don't know but who at best seems to be a one-shot Martyr type.
- One "Vote-Charger," whose pro-Town value would have been minimal to negative in the early- to mid-game (though it would have been terribly useful in the endgame, eh what?)
- My power, and the powers of whoever the eleventh and twelfth Townie turns out to be.
So no alignment investigator, no full Doctor, a name investigator with a chance of killing our power roles and no way of identifying PFK, two role blockers, a couple of roles with utility only in very specific circumstances, and a group of Masons who weren't even entirely on our side? And that's it?
It seems pitiful.
If Rysto is lying, then that means the Mods gave us no way to identify PFK at all beyond sheer dumb luck. In a game with five PFK, that seems like it would border on spectacularly unfair.
If Rysto is lying, then we were fucked from the beginning.
---------------
And furthermore:
Rysto's been laying "I am an alignment investigator" breadcrumbs all game long. In the back half of the game, he has essentially outed two remaining scum. In order for him to be lying, he'd have to have been planning this play basically since Day One.
But here's the thing: if I, for example, had been an alignment investigator, Rysto's plan would have crumbled, because I'd counterclaim him. Same if any Townie had been an alignment investigator.
So in order for Rysto to be lying, not only would we have to have been placed in a shitty situation from the start with no alignment investigator, but Rysto would have had to have guessed that this was the case, and acted on that unlikely guess very early in the game.
It feels implausible to me.
---------------
So I'm going to withdraw my suspicion of Rysto, whether he lives toNight or dies. Fuck it; at some point we have to start deciding to trust someone, so that's what I'm going to do:
story's pro-Town list storyteller Rysto Hoopy Frood NAF molefan
story's anti-Town list Death by Irony hawkeyeop
story's list of unknowns (contains 2 out of 3 scum) Darth Sensitive sinjin Blaster Master
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 12:17:21 GMT -5
Also:
BLAM's actions this Day so far lead me to believe that he is less likely to be a Do-Gooder. It has been fairly obvious to me that hawkeyeop essentially conceded and admitted his alignment, albeit tacitly. The Wang Chung post, the Night post ("so who are we going to lynch next guys? Guys?"), the post toDay: all are indicative of scum who knows he's caught and is resigned to death - emphatically not of a Townie who is being railroaded.
Yet Blam has continued to push the "maybe hawkeyeop is telling the truth" line. That suggests to me that he has not caught on to hawk's apparent capitulation.
Odds are the Do-Gooders have discussed hawekeyop's imminent death and capitulation to same off-board; if Blam were a Do-Gooder, I think he'd be on board with that program, or at least aware of it.
So right now, absent additional information, I would lynch, in order:
hawkeyeop Darth Sensitive Death by Irony sinjin
...and hope for the best.
|
|
|
Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 12:17:51 GMT -5
Fuckin hell, we are at lynch or lose every step of the way.
Thanks for that list story.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 12:20:09 GMT -5
Interestingly, if I am right about everything (anyone want to take odds on that?), then the scum must kill Rysto toNight or they will lose the game. If Rysto investigates BLAM toNight and BLAM comes up Town, and Rysto communicates that to us, then it's all over but the shouting.
|
|
|
Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 12:23:05 GMT -5
Damnit, story, I was hoping that if you all kept being so mistrustful of me it might have bought me another Night. The one worry that I have is that the scum may have kept me alive because I can't hurt them any more. If Batman is immune to my investigations and isn't Hawk, then the scum might be hoping to win this one at 4-handed. story, Darth has also seemed to have missed Hawk's capitulation. Is he eliminated as a Do-Gooder, too?
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 12:34:29 GMT -5
story, Darth has also seemed to have missed Hawk's capitulation. Is he eliminated as a Do-Gooder, too? I didn't say "eliminated," as regards BLAM. Just that his actions pushed me in that direction a bit. As for Darth, nope, I don't see them as the same. BLAM has been actively pushing suspicion of you and your results, and implying that he thinks hawk might be truthful, for some time. His actions toDay have been consistent with his previous actions, and seem to just generally suggest that he sort of "missed the memo" with regard to hawk. Darth, on the other hand, has done nothing for Days but harangue the Masons. His questioning of the evidence of hawk's capitulation reads to me - like much of what he's done - as opportunistic: hoping to maybe inflame BLAM's suspicion of Rysto into something with legs. Darth seems to me like he knows he's on his last legs. He's gotten a lot of votes and suspicion. He seems like he wants to get us to make one mislynch before he dies - because let's face it, one mislynch is all the scum needs. So he harangues the Masons - even voting for one of them - long after others have stopped doing so, hoping we'll lynch one of them for information. He jumps on Blaster's questioning of hawk's capitulation, hoping maybe hawk will catch the snap, recant, and try to get Rysto lynched after all. Opportunism, desire for an artificial outcome. BlaM, as I said, just looks like his missed the memo.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 12:35:12 GMT -5
Sorry for using the word "harangue" twice in that post. I'm usually more creative with my verbs.
|
|
|
Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 12:39:35 GMT -5
Sorry for using the word "harangue" twice in that post. I'm usually more creative with my verbs. No no, it's good. It makes it feel like you are one of us. Just call it literary technique.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 12:42:19 GMT -5
Sorry for using the word "harangue" twice in that post. I'm usually more creative with my verbs. How dare you utilize "harangue" twice in one missive! That's like utilizing a somewhat less common word many times, within the same missive, more than it is usually utilized in one missive. Sort of like how I'm utilizing "utilize" or "missive" in this missive.
|
|
|
Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 12:43:27 GMT -5
Not taking the time to pull out the thesaurus is a scum tell.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 13:03:32 GMT -5
OK, I'm heading for home (early!), so one last reminder from me:
ToDay ends very early. The Day ends on Saturday, if I remember correctly. Votes need to come in, and frankly, we need to be unanimous. With the Day ending at a time when there aren't many people around, with all the factions and crazyness, and with three living scum and six votes needed for a majority, forcing a tie and creating a cheap mislynch wouldn't be particularly difficult.
I urge everyone to vote, and for hawkeyeop. We don't have enough time to pick a different target, and splitting our vote creates any number of dangers (hawekeyep has a vote, too, you know).
Have a good Friday night, all!
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 13:05:54 GMT -5
OK, I'm heading for home (early!), so one last reminder from me: ToDay ends very early. The Day ends on Saturday, if I remember correctly. Votes need to come in, and frankly, we need to be unanimous. With the Day ending at a time when there aren't many people around, with all the factions and crazyness, and with three living scum and six votes needed for a majority, forcing a tie and creating a cheap mislynch wouldn't be particularly difficult. I urge everyone to vote, and for hawkeyeop. We don't have enough time to pick a different target, and splitting our vote creates any number of dangers ( hawekeyep has a vote, too, you know). Have a good Friday night, all! Erm... according to the Day opening post, the Day doesn't end until Wednesday at 9 PM. We have plenty of time Today.
|
|
|
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 14:14:45 GMT -5
Erm... according to the Day opening post, the Day doesn't end until Wednesday at 9 PM. We have plenty of time Today. According to the post where the mods agreed to modify the schedule, the Day will actually end on Saturday. Unless they changed their mind again. But just for clarification: When does Day VII end?
Also, you still have tdpatriots amongst the living in the players list.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 14:45:23 GMT -5
Also, you still have tdpatriots amongst the living in the players list. Maybe he didn't really die?
|
|
|
Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 14:51:58 GMT -5
OK, wow. A lot's happened. Thankfully everyone's talking, so here's my newest contribution.
First of all, with regard to the "target Batman" idea - the three safest humans IMO have made it pretty clear they want to go down the safe route, which is fine with me. My vote stays on Hawkeye and I suggest everyone else who isn't scum joins this particular bandwagon ASAP.
Secondly, with regards to who the scum actually are.
I should make it clear that I'm discounting Rysto right away. If Rysto is scum, it's quite likely that Hoopy is too (since Rysto vouches for him and has accused every other suspect that I have), and if that's the case, I seriously don't think we can win.
Secondly, if Rysto is human, Hoopy is too. That's so straightforward that it barely warrants mentioning. So Hoopy is out.
NAF I obviously know is human, and Story is about as certain as you can get right now, so I'm discounting those two.
That leaves us with Sinjin, DBI, Darth Sensitive, Hawkeye and Blaster Master.
Hawkeye is probably going to be lynched, and for good reasons. He's the most certain scum we have right now.
Darth Sensitive I 100% agree with Story about, so I think he's a safe bet.
DBI is a PFK. I think we should wait until there's only one scum left and then lynch her. If DBI isn't a PFK, we've got a huge problem - in fact, that's one of these "unwinnable" situations, because it'll take at least two missed lynches to get that one sorted out, and we only have one. So for the moment I'm going to trust and hope that DBI is PFK.
Which leaves us with Sinjin and BlaM.
OK, Sinjin first. First of all, she has a confirmed power: she has been able to identify one person who's tried to night-kill her, and stop the kill. As a direct result of this, CIAS (a PFK) was lynched. I argued that this might be a scum power. Others disagreed and gave very good reasons why, actually, it was in all likelihood a town one. Those arguments made sense then. They still do now.
Secondly, there's the mechanics of the role itself. It seems pretty certain that there are six scum and two "serial killers" in this game. In other words, if Sinjin is a townie, she can hit any one of eight people (although I'd like to know how the mods choose which one of the scum try to NK her if all of them agree to her lynch at night - a point to be considered perhaps. Sinjin, can you shed any light on this?) If she's scum, however, she can hit only two - CIAS and Santo. Doubtful IMO...
I went for three days pretty much convinced that Brewha was hiding a huge amount - and I was right there, as he proved on the fourth day when he role-revealed - but I was dead wrong about him being scum. I'd like to hear from Sinjin herself about her role, in particular the point raised above.
Finally, there's the point I brought up but didn't particularly emphasize in my Day 4 analysis, about Darth and BlaM looking like they were "double-teaming" NAF. That raised huge red flags in my mind - it's a scum tactic that I've seen used time and time again. When one scum starts to look suspicious for badgering someone (in this case NAF), he backs off and the other scum takes over. This is exactly what happened here, and it looked unnatural - synchronized. That and the fact that Darth voted for Ryjae literally within ten posts of BlaM being threatened, and then emphasized the fact that he hadn't started the 24-hr countdown, looked very suspicious to me.
None of this is particularly conclusive, but neither was all the stuff I found that linked Kat to DrainBead either, and I was right about that. I really think BlaM and Darth are scum together. In which case, Sinjin can't be.
|
|
|
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 15:43:07 GMT -5
Darth Sensitive I 100% agree with Story about, so I think he's a safe bet. I think most of the confirmed are in agreement about that. I thought Klutz was scummy since the time I first analyzed his posts. While Darth didn't ping me as scummy in the beginning, I started to suspect him on Day 4. And unlike BlaM, who from what I know of his playstyle can appear scummy even when he's not, I don't get the same read from Darth. It's why I unvoted BlaM and eventually voted Darth on Day 5. Although everyone else who's been lynched since Day 2 has been confirmed anti-town somehow, he's the one who's acted the most scummy. Agreed. We can't lynch her until we get rid of the rest of the scum save one. If she's not PFK, we've likely lost already anyway, but lynching her before we whittle down the scum will get us less benefit overall. Scum lynches will net us more information. Can you reiterate them (or link to the posts)? I don't remember them. I can completely see why her power would be good for scum (see next point). I don't see how it necessarily benefits town more. But you forget that we also had a detective/vig. And we don't know exactly what Koldanar's power was. He could have been a doc/vig of some type. If she's Batman, I wouldn't be surprised if he could escape a kill. A godfather who's also immune to the first kill is a pretty powerful combo. Would certainly have made Joker's life interesting as well, if Santo's PM was to be believed. So I think the general strategy we seem to be shooting for at this point is that hawk dies toDay. Darth dies toMorrow. Assuming they're both scum, that leaves us with 1 scum between Sinjin and BlaM, and 1 PFK for the next Day.
|
|
|
Post by sinjin on Apr 25, 2008 15:49:18 GMT -5
Ok, sorry I haven't been here all Day. It was turn in final project day today and I had students waiting in line outsided my office all day. I don't know what more I can tell you about my role. I snipped some stuff out and kind of tried to imply there was more to it than there was so I wouldn't get night attacked. But it turns out that was probably unnecessary given all the juicy rolls everyone else got. I've been a vanilla town since Night one. My power as strong man allowed me to survive one lynch or one night kill. If it was a night kill I learned the name but not the alignment of the person who attacked me. I decided to try to draw someone out on Night 1 after the talk about tie votes. Dio confirmed via PM that if I lost the draw on a tie my power wouldn't work at all and I would be really dead instead of mostly dead. If you want I can post my unaltered role pm. I will be voting for hawkeyeop toDay. I wanted him lynched yesterDay and the Day before that. I am still wondering what happened on Night 1 and why there was no Do-gooder removal.
|
|
|
Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 16:22:47 GMT -5
Darth Sensitive I 100% agree with Story about, so I think he's a safe bet. I think most of the confirmed are in agreement about that. I thought Klutz was scummy since the time I first analyzed his posts. While Darth didn't ping me as scummy in the beginning, I started to suspect him on Day 4. And unlike BlaM, who from what I know of his playstyle can appear scummy even when he's not, I don't get the same read from Darth. It's why I unvoted BlaM and eventually voted Darth on Day 5. Although everyone else who's been lynched since Day 2 has been confirmed anti-town somehow, he's the one who's acted the most scummy. Agreed. We can't lynch her until we get rid of the rest of the scum save one. If she's not PFK, we've likely lost already anyway, but lynching her before we whittle down the scum will get us less benefit overall. Scum lynches will net us more information. Can you reiterate them (or link to the posts)? I don't remember them. I can completely see why her power would be good for scum (see next point). I don't see how it necessarily benefits town more. But you forget that we also had a detective/vig. And we don't know exactly what Koldanar's power was. He could have been a doc/vig of some type. If she's Batman, I wouldn't be surprised if he could escape a kill. A godfather who's also immune to the first kill is a pretty powerful combo. Would certainly have made Joker's life interesting as well, if Santo's PM was to be believed. So I think the general strategy we seem to be shooting for at this point is that hawk dies toDay. Darth dies toMorrow. Assuming they're both scum, that leaves us with 1 scum between Sinjin and BlaM, and 1 PFK for the next Day. Well there's one point that should be easy to sort out anyway. If Sinjin is Batman, Darth definitely is not. So if Darth flips scum but NOT Batman, I'll strongly consider voting Sinjin instead of BlaM. (Actually, come to think of it... that does make things rather ludicrously simple, doesn't it?) Thanks for the info Sinjin. Frankly I thought your ability was one-shot, and that lessens rather than increases any suspicions I have of you. I completely agree with Hoopy's death list (creepy!) with one caveat: assuming that we get that far, I think we should take out DBI before the last scum. Sorry DBI, but leaving you around until the very end is too much of a risk for me. As far as the Hawkeye - Darth thing goes though, I'm ahead of you.
|
|
|
Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 16:24:18 GMT -5
Oh wait... that bit about DBI was what you said anyway. D'oh! *needs new glasses.*
|
|
|
Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 16:51:52 GMT -5
I feel horrible even suggesting this, but do we all agree that at least one of sinjin, BLaM and Darth are Town? Wouldn't a modkill of exactly one Townie among those three basically win the game for the Town?
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:02:18 GMT -5
I completely agree with Hoopy's death list (creepy!) with one caveat: assuming that we get that far, I think we should take out DBI before the last scum. Sorry DBI, but leaving you around until the very end is too much of a risk for me. As far as the Hawkeye - Darth thing goes though, I'm ahead of you. Just to reitterate that, yes, we can't leave PFK alive for last. DBI needs to me lynched. Hell, she may not even actually be PFK, which we won't really know until Rysto shows up dead and confirmed. And if she is, we don't know what her condition is, so I'd rather not risk it. Hell, since it looks like many of the lynch decisions are pretty much laid out, it might even make more sense to move her lynch up to Tomorrow, or even Today, just incase her condition is something other than survivor. And that would leave Batman between sinjin and Darth, and two scum between those and me. Either way, I can't say I'm on the Hawk wagon, mostly because I can't figure out any sort of motivation for his apparent false accusation of DBI. So, really, on further reflection, here's my proposed lynch schedule: Today: Lynch DBI. She's either scum, or PFK. The first result is at least as good as lynching Hawk, the second 100% confirms which between Hawk and Rysto is lying AND eliminates whatever potential threat her PFKness is. Tomorrow: If DBI is PFK, lynch Hawk. If she's scum, lynch Rysto. We either get scum, or at worst, PFK Next Day: If Batman is still alive, lynch between Darth and Sinjin. If DBI or Rysto/Hawk was Batman, or both were scum (ie, not PFK), examine me as well. Last Day: Lynch between the two that are left, probably me and Sinjin. So, unless my logic is flawed, I actually think it would make more sense to get DBI dead now. So... Unvote RystoVote DBI
|
|
|
Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 17:02:30 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 17:06:16 GMT -5
BLaM, that is a terrible idea and I really have to question your motives for proposing it. If Darth is Town, then lynching DBI now likely loses the game for the Town.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:07:43 GMT -5
I feel horrible even suggesting this, but do we all agree that at least one of sinjin, BLaM and Darth are Town? Wouldn't a modkill of exactly one Townie among those three basically win the game for the Town? Well, I can certainly agree that there's at least one town between the three of us. And I can't agree that a Modkill would win it for town. It would IF the modkill is scum or PFK, or even a townie amongst the unconfirmed. If it were a confirmed townie, it wouldn't have an effect (I think, I'm too lazy to crunch the numbers). How would a mod-kill come into play anyway?
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:08:43 GMT -5
BLaM, that is a terrible idea and I really have to question your motives for proposing it. If Darth is Town, then lynching DBI now likely loses the game for the Town. Explain...
|
|