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Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 17:10:10 GMT -5
The townie withdraws from the game. That doesn't effect the number of mislynches left, and eliminates the possibility of that townie getting mislynched. As long as story isn't scum, we can't lose in that scenario.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 17:12:31 GMT -5
I have two parallel discussions going on with BLaM here.
BLaM, in all likelihood we have 1 mislynch left before hitting lynch-or-lose. If Darth is Town, then by lynching him we waste or mislynch and the Town is in a position where they have to trust that DBI isn't lying to have any chance at victory. If we waste our mislynch on DBI toDay, then we lose when we lynch Darth.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:12:54 GMT -5
NETA:
Can you agree that DBI is absolutely NOT town, and is either PFK or Do-Gooder? If so, I don't see how lynching her, and the potential for Darth being town having anything to do with us potentially losing. How is Darth's potential towniness going to effect us more than, say mine, or Sinjin's?
Hell, if anything, you should be in FAVOR of DBI's lynch, because she'll 100% confirm you. Even if we lynch Hawk and he shows up as Do-Gooder, you're not 100% confirmed. All we really know is that at least one of you was lying, but that doesn't mean that you weren't lucky in catching a PFK like he was.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 17:13:11 GMT -5
PS - if I'm right and BlaM is scum, he gets my extreme admiration as well as at least fifty "steel bollocks" points. Talk about not going down without a fight!
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 17:13:18 GMT -5
I feel horrible even suggesting this, but do we all agree that at least one of sinjin, BLaM and Darth are Town? Wouldn't a modkill of exactly one Townie among those three basically win the game for the Town? Yes it would. Assuming we get scum toDay, a modkill of the unknown townie brings us from the 6-3-1 we currently have to a 4-2-1 with everyone confirmed. The following days end up as follows (depending how we treat DBI) We allow DBI to win with us: 3-1-1, 3-0-1 (note, scum don't get that last night kill) We lynch DBI to guarantee our win: 3-1-1, 2-1-0, 2-0-0 (once again, no final scum kill) However, I don't think the mods are going to let us get away with that. But, if the townie amongst the bunch wants to try for a modkill, go ahead. Maybe all three of you unknowns can get modkilled and save us time as well.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:19:15 GMT -5
I have two parallel discussions going on with BLaM here. BLaM, in all likelihood we have 1 mislynch left before hitting lynch-or-lose. If Darth is Town, then by lynching him we waste or mislynch and the Town is in a position where they have to trust that DBI isn't lying to have any chance at victory. If we waste our mislynch on DBI toDay, then we lose when we lynch Darth. WTF? Why do people keep refering to lynching PFK as a mislynch? If DBI is PFK, she's NOT a mislynch, the Do-Gooders sure as hell won't take her out. She HAS to die! IF we believe you, we only know that she's PFK, we have absolutely ZERO reason to believe she's actually a survivor. Hell, the fact that she didn't counter-claim tdpatriots in light of the evidence at hand means to me that she's much more likely to be malicious. We don't get ANY mislynches left, we have 4 lynches, left, and 4 scum (3 Do-Gooders and 1 PFK). What this does is ensure that the one between you and Hawk that is townie doesn't get lynched. And we're still down finding 2 scum in Darth, Sinjin, and me. If we leave the PFK for last, we can lynch all three of us, but we run the risk of her winning at the exclusion to us that way. All of this is starting to lead me to believe you want to delay her death because you know she'll turn up different than PFK and will expose you. All the more reason she should lynch her now.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:26:39 GMT -5
Seriously, WTF? Hoopy, Rysto, everyone else. IF we believe Rysto's claim, and his argument with me is leading me to believe we shouldn't, we ONLY know that DBI is PFK. We have no reason to believe she's a survivor, and we almost got burned on that once with tdpatriots.
If you stop with the "I'd rather lose to PFK" nonsense, with the plan of leaving her 'til last, if she is PFK, you're 100% gambling that she's telling the truth and, since she's caught scum, she probably isn't. That translates to a nearly high chance of losing to PFK.
Personally, I'd rather maximize our chances of winning rather than minimize our chances of losing to scum. If we go by my plan, there's very little chance of losing to PFK (unless DBI, Rysto/Hawk, and whoever of the last three we lynch first isn't), and we get two shots at guessing the scum between the last three unknowns.
Bottom line, do you really believe DBI is telling the truth about being a survivor? If you are 100% sure you can believe her, then fine, don't lynch her. If she's lying, we're in LyLo right now!
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 25, 2008 17:27:19 GMT -5
*cough* Participation will be low on account of desktop being dead *cough* (Noooooo! ) and roommate using the laptop when she's home. (Also, will be keeping up the *coughs* until I'm informed that I no longer need to do so. Why, yes, I'm paranoid, why do you ask? ) *cough* I know you guys can't trust me on this, but I am indeed a PFK survivor. *cough* I wish I could tell you for certain whether or not I'm an impediment to either win condition--I'm fairly certain that I don't count as a Do Gooder for the purposes of their reaching majority, but I have no idea whether or not they actually need me dead. *cough* On that same vein, I don't know what would happen if you guys manage to lynch all of the Do Gooders before I get killed one way or the other. Is there a link to who Rysto has investigated on each Night and what the result is? Ditto for hawkeyeop.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 17:28:27 GMT -5
I have two parallel discussions going on with BLaM here. BLaM, in all likelihood we have 1 mislynch left before hitting lynch-or-lose. If Darth is Town, then by lynching him we waste or mislynch and the Town is in a position where they have to trust that DBI isn't lying to have any chance at victory. If we waste our mislynch on DBI toDay, then we lose when we lynch Darth. WTF? Why do people keep refering to lynching PFK as a mislynch? If DBI is PFK, she's NOT a mislynch, the Do-Gooders sure as hell won't take her out. She HAS to die! IF we believe you, we only know that she's PFK, we have absolutely ZERO reason to believe she's actually a survivor. Hell, the fact that she didn't counter-claim tdpatriots in light of the evidence at hand means to me that she's much more likely to be malicious. We don't get ANY mislynches left, we have 4 lynches, left, and 4 scum (3 Do-Gooders and 1 PFK). What this does is ensure that the one between you and Hawk that is townie doesn't get lynched. And we're still down finding 2 scum in Darth, Sinjin, and me. If we leave the PFK for last, we can lynch all three of us, but we run the risk of her winning at the exclusion to us that way. All of this is starting to lead me to believe you want to delay her death because you know she'll turn up different than PFK and will expose you. All the more reason she should lynch her now. I agree that we should take her out, just not toDay. ToDay we kill hawk for the crime of claiming Do Gooder. Tomorrow we kill DBI I think, depending on who gets Night killed. Then we kill either you or sinjin or Darth, again, depending on who is Night killed. Town wins.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 17:30:29 GMT -5
Either way, I can't say I'm on the Hawk wagon, mostly because I can't figure out any sort of motivation for his apparent false accusation of DBI. I explained a good motivation for that earlier. He lied about his Night 1 investigation. He didn't investigate CIAS. He investigated Kassia. Remember, she was pinging a lot of people, but she wasn't scum. So since scum need to root out PFK, it was as good of a choice as any to investigate that night. He discovers she's a survivor. Scum concoct a plan to eventually have one of them claim survivor instead, since a survivor wants to stay hidden. tdpatriots almost gets modkilled. To make it easy to avoid this, and to explain his absence, he claims survivor PFK. It presented a really convenient reason for why a survivor would put himself out like that. I'd even go as far as to say it was tdpatriots plan all along to get himself almost mod-killed. hawkeyeop, not wanting tdpatriots or DBI investigated, confirms DBI as town. After all, she hadn't counterclaimed yet, even after posting a few times, so she was unlikely to counterclaim. (And notice, she didn't counterclaim until Rysto basically forced her to.) But Rysto investigated anyway and uncovered the truth.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:31:50 GMT -5
Bottom line, here's how it lays out. The plan of lynching Hawk minimizes our chance of losing to Do-Gooders. That sounds great, but it maximizes our chance of losing to the last PFK (to whatever percentage you assign to the chance that she's lying), which is very bad. My proposed plan maximizes our chance of winning over-all, the only downside is that we MIGHT lose to the Do-Gooders instead of the PFK. But when you realize that a loss is a loss, and it doesn't matter who you lose to, then it makes the most sense to maximize our chances to win.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 17:32:57 GMT -5
If it were a confirmed townie, it wouldn't have an effect Your right. It wouldn't. Confirmed townies dying hurt us. Unconfirmed dying help us. Town would be in very good shape if cookies hadn't have had to be modkilled. Town has played this game pretty much about as well as we could. However, we stand to lose on a technicality.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 17:41:58 GMT -5
Bottom line, here's how it lays out. The plan of lynching Hawk minimizes our chance of losing to Do-Gooders. That sounds great, but it maximizes our chance of losing to the last PFK (to whatever percentage you assign to the chance that she's lying), which is very bad. My proposed plan maximizes our chance of winning over-all, the only downside is that we MIGHT lose to the Do-Gooders instead of the PFK. But when you realize that a loss is a loss, and it doesn't matter who you lose to, then it makes the most sense to maximize our chances to win. This is where I am losing you. How does waiting until Day 8 to lynch DBI hurt us?
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:42:48 GMT -5
I agree that we should take her out, just not toDay. ToDay we kill hawk for the crime of claiming Do Gooder. I'm still not getting this. But whatever, I'll concede it since it doesn't matter. Here's the point, if she's indeed PFK, and we're going to take her out anyway, why give her an extra Night to acheive her win condition? What if she's NOT PFK, what if she is scum? All we have is Rysto's read, which I'm having trouble believing at this point, and her confirmation AFTER the fact. Hell, for all we know, Rysto is telling the truth, but she's Batman and has a chance for a random result (a la Darth as the Boss in the recruitment game). This is the same point I've been reitterating for Days now. The scum WON'T take her out for us, but if we take her out now, there's a 0% chance that we'll lose to her. And if she's actually scum, it gives us a chance to regroup and try to figure out where the real PFK is. This ALSO depends. If Batman is still alive, you have a 75% chance of lynching scum by choosing between Sinjin and Darth.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 17:47:45 GMT -5
There's one thing, though. At the time, we were all unaware that not only were there 5 PFK's, but there were 2 SK's, one for Day, and one for night. Not to mention the fact that there would have been another SK to replace Joker if I hadn't inadvertently blocked Rysto's investigation of him on night 2. Plus, we also had a detective/vig that I don't think anyone expected at that point. And none of us know what Koldanar's powers were, other than some doctor-type. There were lots of ways to die, so I can see that power being given to a scum in light of everything that came to light since. Also, we know that scum had two goons so giving at least one of the other four multiple powers is not beyond possibility.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:50:25 GMT -5
This is where I am losing you. How does waiting until Day 8 to lynch DBI hurt us? It's simple, lynching DBI whenever is perfectly fine IF AND ONLY IF she's telling the truth. If she's lying, we have no idea what her powers are or what her win condition is. I think we have good reason to distrust her. First, she DIDN'T counterclaim tdpatriots when she knew there was only 1 PFK left. This is in light of the discussion than any other PFK who didn't counter claim him was likely to be malicious. Second, she waited a LONG time to come up with her claim and it's, surprise surprise, the only kind of PFK claim that MIGHT give her a chance of living. The question is, do we want to trust her and rest the entire game on her telling the truth? If so, we don't lynch her, and go down the line lynching the unknowns. If we don't trust her, we need to lynch her ASAP, because we'll have to do it ANYWAY, we eliminate any chance of losing to her, and the Do-Gooders are no better or worse if we lynch her Today or Tomorrow, since Hawk will probably be lynched either way. The only POSSIBLE benefit I can see for the Do-Gooders is IF Hawk is a scum investigator and hasn't investigated Storyteller yet, as he's the only likely townie who hasn't put forth a full claim. But I think that's extremely unlikely, since I can't imagine they'd leave him uninvestigated this far into the game.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 17:59:22 GMT -5
I really think DBI should die Today and each Day we leave her alive we run the risk of losing to her. We may be able to bear leaving her alive Today, but letting her live through Tomorrow is a big risk, and letting her live through the Day after that is just handing her the game if she's lying.
But fine, if no one is seeing my logic, I'll shut up, and I'll just put my vote on Hawk, but I sure as hell won't shut up about it Tomorrow. The only way lynching her Tomorrow isn't the optimal lynch is if Hawk is Baddie.
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 25, 2008 18:04:18 GMT -5
*Coughs* Blaster, how am I supposed to know how many PFKs are left? *coughs* Yeah, we had information from the masons, but until Rysto called me out *coughs* I was content to let tdpatroits and hawkeyeop lie through their teeth because, hey, it helped me survive better. *coughs*
(If it turns out that Rysto was gambiting...well played, you bastard. *coughs, shakes fist*)
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Post by sinjin on Apr 25, 2008 18:09:15 GMT -5
If someone can explain to me in small words how the last townie getting mod-killed will give victory to the town I'll go for it. I will then post my "tie/lynch" pm and get mod-killed. How is this different than just offering myself up for a lynch? Sorry, end of semester and G & T's confuzzerling my brain.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 18:12:56 GMT -5
This is where I am losing you. How does waiting until Day 8 to lynch DBI hurt us? It's simple, lynching DBI whenever is perfectly fine IF AND ONLY IF she's telling the truth. If she's lying, we have no idea what her powers are or what her win condition is. Yes, but if we don't, neither do scum. You say scum are going to leave her alive, but why? You say a loss is a loss, which is true, but I consider scum a far greater risk since we know how we lose to them. We don't know how or if we lose to DBI. But doesn't the same thing apply to scum? If scum know how she wins, they clearly don't consider her a risk, or they would have taken her out . If they don't know how she wins, are they going to risk leaving her alive only to lose to her? She's "playing for keeps". She is not "playing against town". This means if she's a threat to us, she's a threat to them. The earlier we kill her, the earlier we help scum. The earlier scum kills her, the earlier they help us. It's a huge WIFOM shit sandwich and one side is probably going to have to take a bite. Personally, I'm willing to risk letting her live for another day. Especially since if we find out hawkeyeop is scum detective, it's not unlikely that scum might already know her win condition. (Yes, I can see the mods giving scum one detective who can determine win conditions as well as alignment.) Scum has let her live this long, they consider us a bigger risk to them than she is. I feel the exact same way but on the flipside.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 18:21:04 GMT -5
If someone can explain to me in small words how the last townie getting mod-killed will give victory to the town I'll go for it. I will then post my "tie/lynch" pm and get mod-killed. How is this different than just offering myself up for a lynch? Sorry, end of semester and G & T's confuzzerling my brain. Because assuming that all confirmed denizens are indeed what they claim to be or are assumed to be (likely scenario, but not 100%), we have two scum between three unknowns. If every night we lose a town and every day we lose a scum, the number difference remains the same. However, if we lynch a townie, we lose 2 town and scum lose no one, this is a net gain of 2 for them. If we modkill an unknown townie, we can no longer kill town. This results in a net gain of only 1 for scum. We essentially prevent one night kill, since the modkill acts as a mislynch without having to wait a night to lynch again. Town wins. It's a sneaky and dirty way to win. But hey, if the mods can be gastards, why not us. We are villains after all.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 18:22:01 GMT -5
storyteller explained this better several Days ago, but here's the short version: For the Do-Gooders to reach their win condition, they have to have at least 50% of all players left be Do-Gooders(at least, that's the standard win condition). In all likelihood, we have 3 Do-Gooders, 1 PFK and 6 Townies left. In order for those 3 Do-Gooders to form a majority, they need two non-Do-Gooders to be lynched. The key thing to notice here is that a lynching a PFK is just as good to the Do-Gooders as lynching a Townie. Viewed from that perspective, lynching a PFK is a mislynch.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 25, 2008 18:32:30 GMT -5
I am wondering why Blam the numbers man is having such a hard time figuring out what story posted before and what Rysto is reiterating now.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 18:38:40 GMT -5
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 19:00:30 GMT -5
What the heck did I to to deserve being smited?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 19:03:37 GMT -5
NETA: That should have been "do to" not "to to" Tu-tu?
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 19:05:25 GMT -5
I don't think I have a vote down yet. In case I don't
vote hawk
I can't play on the weekends since my phone won't let me log into this site, and my real internet is still down. If things change I will be here posting.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 19:26:51 GMT -5
Oh and another reason I want Hawk dead:
The only reason I can fathom for town having 2 full blockers and a doc-blocker is if we can actually stop kills. However, since every scum and unknown with the exception of Blam has been blocked, either Hal is the killer or the scum designate a killer each night. The more scum we take out, the less scum I have to choose from. If you look at my record, I've actually been pretty good at blocking those we've had suspicions of, even the ones that the suspicions weren't out yet. Yeah, my block of Rysto wasn't good, but at the time we didn't know that it was Brewha that prevented the night one kill. We knew Rysto was blocked and no kill happened. Joker, who I had blocked, was already exposed. Yeah, I should have noticed the breadcrumbs, but this is my first game after all, so it's not totally my fault.
We get rid of Hawkeyeop we have three possible people who can be scum. I have a 1 in 3 chance of preventing a kill tonight. You leave him alive, I have a 1 in 4.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 19:41:01 GMT -5
And by Hal I meant Blam
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 22:29:49 GMT -5
The scum WON'T take her out for us, but if we take her out now, there's a 0% chance that we'll lose to her. You're wrong, you know. The scum might take her out for us. If they have thought far enough ahead, they realize it themselves. They don't want to lose to a PFK any more than we do. At some point, it is possible to leverage the game such that scum are forced to kill any living PFK in order to preserve any chance of winning the game for themselves. Observe: Assume DBI is, in fact, the last PFK. Right now, we are at 6-3-1 (Town-Scum-PFK). We lynch hawk toDay. Now we're at 6-2-1. Townie dies toNight, 5-2-1. Say we lynch, for example, Darth toMorrow: 5-1-1. Townie dies: 4-1-1. NOW we lynch DBI. 4-1-0. Townie dies: 3-1-0. Day dawns and the three Townies have one chance to identify the Do-Gooder in their midst. That's the best-case scenario. But here's a worse case: things go as above through toMorrow (5-2-1), but we lynch Darth and he's Town. Crap, right? Now it's 4-2-1. Night falls. Scum kill a Townie, so the following morning it's 3-2-1. Well, if we lynch a townie, the game is over, and the PFK wins. If we lynch scum, game continues, at 3-1-1. That Night, the scum must kill the PFK, to make it 3-1-0. If they don't, morning comes and it's 2-1-1, and the scum cannot win under any circumstances. The way the game falls out, if DBI is PFK, then we must lynch her when there is one, and only one, scum remaining. To do otherwise negates a powerful advantage, and frankly our last advantage: that if we mislynch, the burden of killing DBI shifts to the scum. I'll repeat that for emphasis: if we mislynch at any time (a true mislynch, as in a lynch of a Townie), then the scum cannot win unless they kill the PFK themselves).------------- I acknowledge that Blaster Master is concerned that DBI's win condition may be other than we are guessing that it is. He might be right. I will take that risk. ------------- Now, in the odd case that DBI is actually scum, then Rysto is scum, too. So is hawkeyeop. In such a case, the real PFK is out there somewhere. It's possible. But we'll find that out eventually if it's so.
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