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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 22:31:32 GMT -5
Actually, in my second scenario above, the scum would likely kill the PFK on the Night immediately following our mislynch, because once we (the Town) mislynch once the scum cannot win the game unless they kill the PFK themselves.
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Post by RoOsh on Apr 25, 2008 23:11:12 GMT -5
When does Day VII end?
Also, you still have tdpatriots amongst the living in the players list. 1. Day will end 9pm on Saturday (or whenever Dio says). 2. Fixed the Tdpats issue. 3. Since someone asked privately: Scum win in all cases of a tie. Why? It's Batman. He'd find a way. Trust me.
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Post by RoOsh on Apr 25, 2008 23:21:19 GMT -5
Oh and for everyone who starts coming up with clever "mod killing the townies" to guarantee a win.... I'm gonna be the one writing the death scenes.
So the next mod killed person will die of Cholera. And everyone's gonna get infected and get some interesting Post Restriction to stay alive before they end up dehydrating via extreme overload of excretory functions. Everyone but Batman that is. Because of course, Batman's got the antidote for Cholera in his pocket. He's that prepared- he knows how unsanitary prisons can get...
You may be a bunch of gastardly villains in an Asylum, but I'm the Gastardly Mod creating the gastardly villains. I can up my Gastdarity to match yours. As remember, this was a SEMI-Gastard setup, you haven't SEEN me at my Gastardliest.
*Note* DBI- you can stop coughing now. You've jumped the shark.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 25, 2008 23:51:38 GMT -5
So then Batman will become immediately obvious, do to the lack of a posting restriction? I'm liking this idea better and better...
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Apr 25, 2008 23:58:31 GMT -5
Remember blam coughing when he didn't have to?
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 26, 2008 0:29:37 GMT -5
I am wondering why Blam the numbers man is having such a hard time figuring out what story posted before and what Rysto is reiterating now. Because it was wrong then and it's wrong now.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 26, 2008 0:41:41 GMT -5
Yes, but if we don't, neither do scum. You say scum are going to leave her alive, but why? You say a loss is a loss, which is true, but I consider scum a far greater risk since we know how we lose to them. We don't know how or if we lose to DBI. But doesn't the same thing apply to scum? If scum know how she wins, they clearly don't consider her a risk, or they would have taken her out . If they don't know how she wins, are they going to risk leaving her alive only to lose to her? Seriously, how many god damn times do I have to explain this? They won't kill her because they're LOSING! They will only make actions that will improve their relative position to us. They can only consider making neutral actions if they're ahead, otherwise they're hurting their relative position. And scum definitely are NOT more of a threat. In fact, they're less of a threat precisely BECAUSE we know what their win condition is. That which we know is at least within some bounds of control. She is a complete wild card. This is just complete hogwash. She is NOT a threat to the scum, until they have an advantage. They do NOT have an advantage. And they will NOT take her out, because they have more pressing people to take out like, say, the Masons or Storyteller or, if it turns out Rysto is telling the truth, probably him. Beyond that, she's an unknown who is, AT BEST, PFK. You're sitting here assuming that she MUST be PFK. THIS IS WHAT ALMOST BURNED US WITH TDPATRIOTS! She is DEFINITELY not a Baddie. She is most assuredly a liar. She MUST die! Fine then, leave her alive, and let her win the game. Your position is completely indefensible.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 26, 2008 0:49:01 GMT -5
storyteller explained this better several Days ago, but here's the short version: For the Do-Gooders to reach their win condition, they have to have at least 50% of all players left be Do-Gooders(at least, that's the standard win condition). In all likelihood, we have 3 Do-Gooders, 1 PFK and 6 Townies left. In order for those 3 Do-Gooders to form a majority, they need two non-Do-Gooders to be lynched. The key thing to notice here is that a lynching a PFK is just as good to the Do-Gooders as lynching a Townie. Viewed from that perspective, lynching a PFK is a mislynch. This logic is fundamentally flawed. They have to get 50%, fine. So let's assume we mislynch Today. That leaves us with 4 Baddie, 3 Gooders, and 1 PFK Tomorrow. Even if we lynch right, the scum tie it back up to 3 Baddies, 2 Goodies, 1 PFK. So even if we run the tables, after a single mislynch, we resign to the PFKs win conditions. OTOH, if we lynch the PFK today, we end up with 4 Baddies and 3 Gooders tomorrow, and if we run the tables, HOLY FUCKING SHIT Batman, we actually win the God Damn game! Is it clear now how a lynch of the PFK is NOT a God Damn mislynch. If we lynch a townie OR don't ever lynch the PFK at any point we, at best, win with the PFK, but more likely either lose to scum or lose to PFK. But if we lynch the PFK AND the scum, we definitely win. Seriously, how the hell is this logic so hard for you all to grasp? It's fucking frustrating as hell!
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Post by Rysto on Apr 26, 2008 0:57:05 GMT -5
So you think that there's a higher probability that we're going to win a triple lynch-or-lose than there is that DBI is a survivor?
Because frankly, I don't. To lynch DBI is to forfeit the game to the Do-Gooders -- and I think that's exactly what you're aiming for.
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 26, 2008 1:23:51 GMT -5
The scum WON'T take her out for us, but if we take her out now, there's a 0% chance that we'll lose to her. You're wrong, you know. The scum might take her out for us. If they have thought far enough ahead, they realize it themselves. They don't want to lose to a PFK any more than we do. At some point, it is possible to leverage the game such that scum are forced to kill any living PFK in order to preserve any chance of winning the game for themselves. Observe: Assume DBI is, in fact, the last PFK. Right now, we are at 6-3-1 (Town-Scum-PFK). We lynch hawk toDay. Now we're at 6-2-1. Townie dies toNight, 5-2-1. Say we lynch, for example, Darth toMorrow: 5-1-1. Townie dies: 4-1-1. NOW we lynch DBI. 4-1-0. Townie dies: 3-1-0. Day dawns and the three Townies have one chance to identify the Do-Gooder in their midst. That's the best-case scenario. But here's a worse case: things go as above through toMorrow (5-2-1), but we lynch Darth and he's Town. Crap, right? Now it's 4-2-1. Night falls. Scum kill a Townie, so the following morning it's 3-2-1. Well, if we lynch a townie, the game is over, and the PFK wins. If we lynch scum, game continues, at 3-1-1. That Night, the scum must kill the PFK, to make it 3-1-0. If they don't, morning comes and it's 2-1-1, and the scum cannot win under any circumstances. The way the game falls out, if DBI is PFK, then we must lynch her when there is one, and only one, scum remaining. To do otherwise negates a powerful advantage, and frankly our last advantage: that if we mislynch, the burden of killing DBI shifts to the scum. I'll repeat that for emphasis: if we mislynch at any time (a true mislynch, as in a lynch of a Townie), then the scum cannot win unless they kill the PFK themselves).This is incomplete. You're showing the two extremes and extrapolating incorrectly from there. And that is NOT the best case scenario, it is decidedly worse than the scenario I prevented, because you only get one chance at lynching the last Do Gooder, but the PFK gets two more Nights to acheive her win condition. Observer the ACTUAL best case scenario: Today we lynch DBI and she is PFK, 5-3-0, Tomorrow we lynch Hawk and he's scum, 4-2-0, the next Day we lynch Darth and he's scum, 2-1-0. It's the EXACT same bloody scenario, except the PFK has absolutely no chance to win and but we still have the one shot at picking scum. Assume an alternate scenario, the DBI is actually a Do-Gooder. The best case scenario for your plan is, we lynch Hawk tonight and he's scum, 5-2-1, we lynch Darth and he's scum, 4-1-1, then we lynch DBI thinking she's PFK and, 4-0-1... SHIT, we just lost to whoever the REAL PFK is. OTOH, if we follow my plan, we lynch DBI and she's scum, and tomorrow we're at 5-2-1... we're in EXACTLY the same place as we would be in the best case scenario with knowing she was the PFK and lynching Hawk, except now we actually get a chance to track down the PFK. Hoopy wants to be the game on the idea that she's telling the truth which is, quite frankly, stupid. You want to bet the game on the idea that we are 100% sure that she's PFK. We aren't 100% sure. And we don't have to be. Rather than trying to leverage incomplete information of her being PFK, we can leverage complete information that she's NOT Baddie. THAT is the fundamental difference between our lynch plans. The Best case scenarios are the same for both plans, but there's at least one more loss case with your plan. FOA, I'm not "concerned", we have no reason to believe ANYTHING she says. Doing so is foolish. I don't care whether you're willing to take a risk or not, the whole point is that we DON'T HAVE TO. If this is the case, slim though it may be, if we lynch hawk now, and then Darth tomorrow, unless Darth is the PFK, we've already lost. At that point we're just playing along to decide whether the actual PFK or the Do-Gooders win. If we kill DBI today, and she's PFK, she can't win, but we must lynch perfectly here on out. If we kill DBI today, and she's scum, we now know she was lying and know we have to find the PFK, and we have to find him before we lynch both of the other Do-Gooders. And, we know that Hawk AND Rysto are both scum, which means we know all the Do-Gooders. If we don't kill DBI today, and she's PFK, she may win before we get around to killing her, or she may not, but we have to lynch her before we lynch more than two scum, in which case we have to lynch perfectly on the last Day, which is exactly like case one. If we dont' kill DBI today, and she's scum, if we wait to kill her, we never find the PFK (unless either the likely lynchees of Hawk and Darth are the PFK), and we lose. Best case, one of them was PFK, and we end up exactly like case one. Cases three and four have as their best case the same thing that I'm proposing, which is case one. The worst case for my plan (case two) at least allows us a chance to recover. Worst case for your plan is a straight up loss.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 26, 2008 1:35:03 GMT -5
So you think that there's a higher probability that we're going to win a triple lynch-or-lose than there is that DBI is a survivor? Because frankly, I don't. To lynch DBI is to forfeit the game to the Do-Gooders -- and I think that's exactly what you're aiming for. So, let me get this straight, you'd rather bet the entire game on the idea that someone we know we can't trust is telling the truth than possibly put some effort into it? God forbid that DBI's death gives us more certainty about you and likely 100% certainty about Hawk. I'd have a hard time calling 100% certainty on scum a LyLo. So that's one down. Nevermind that we have a 75% chance of getting scum by pure blind luck between Sinjin and Darth, and there's some pretty damn good evidence against him. And if we chose wrong here, we lose whether we've lynched the PFK or not. So THIS isn't even a LyLo situation either. So, Holy shit Batman, we end up getting stuck in a single LyLo situation. A FAR damn cry from a triple one like you're asserting. Back up your assertion that lynching her is forfeiting the game, because it's completely against ALL logic that it is. The numbers just don't back that up. This is really making it look like you know, or at least fear, that she's not going to come up as PFK. I think you're afraid of getting caught in your lie. But for the sake of argument, let's assume you're town. If you're willing to do something so gallactically stupid and self-defeatist, then fuck it, I quit. Let's just congratulate her and hope beyond hope that she's telling the truth.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 26, 2008 1:39:45 GMT -5
3. Since someone asked privately: Scum win in all cases of a tie. Why? It's Batman. He'd find a way. Trust me. And that's the nail in the coffin on why we should lynch DBI today, because the scum don't have to kill her. IF she's telling the truth, and we don't lynch her, and we lynch two more gooders, then we'll end up at 2-1-1. If we lynch town, scum don't have a majority, so they get to kill her then and win. If town lynches her, scum kill and get a tie, and win. If we lynch scum, she wins.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 26, 2008 3:40:44 GMT -5
Checking in. Don't have too much to add at the moment.
I will say two things:
1) Getting a citizen modkilled is a HORRIBLE idea. Right now we have one good citizen "buffer", assuming four scum acting together (and yes, I know the PFK won't necessarily act alongside the wolves, but we don't know what the PFK's win condition is so that's not an assumption I want to make) we've still got a six-four advantage. Reduce that to 5-4 and you immediately put yourselves in the position where every single townie has to vote the same way to get rid of a scummy player. If just one town forgets to vote, or can't get to a computer or something, we're in random modkill-land. And that could lose us the game then and there.
Besides which - would the mods allow us to "abuse" the rules like that? And I do think it would be an abuse... It's not the way that I want to win this thing. The wolves would be howling about it for weeks (excuse the pun). And they'd be right to, regardless of the "cookies" situation.
2) On the same topic as above, EVERY TOWNIE HERE NEEDS TO VOTE HAWK. That's vital. I'm not even going to get into the debate with BlaM, given that I think he's scum, but you can bet your ass that every scummy player will come up with every possible excuse not to vote off the MOST CERTAIN DO-GOODER THAT WE KNOW ABOUT RIGHT NOW. Don't, for pity's sake, listen to them.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 26, 2008 7:18:09 GMT -5
Blam how can you keep ignoring the fact that we KNOW Hawk is scum? He said DBI was town. She is NOT by her own admission.
vote hawkeyeop
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 26, 2008 8:40:56 GMT -5
So Blam, are you saying you don't think I can block a kill? Do you have a better reason why there would be three pro-town blockers and no pure vigilante?
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 26, 2008 8:43:30 GMT -5
Thank you.
It's a numbers game now. I 110% agree with debate at the start of a day. However, when it gets towards the end of it, the townies need to pull together and vote whichever way is agreed by the majority. If we can't do that, we've lost anyway - the scum only need to swing the vote right at the end of the day (as I believe they did with the Ryjae exile) and that's it. I can't stress this enough.
One other thing - if DBI's PFK role is correct, which I'm not assuming is true but which could be, she has every reason to want the scum to win. If the town win, they'll probably take her out before the last scum. But if the scum can get a townie lynched instead, she'll still be alive when the game ends due to parity. The scum, obviously, don't want this, which is why I think the most vocal / least suspected of them is pushing for a DBI lynch right now. But I think it's safe to assume that DBI might very well be rooting for - and most likely voting with - the scum.
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Apr 26, 2008 15:34:58 GMT -5
I am of the belief that the remaining PFK needs to be taken down sooner rather than later.
Vote hawk[/v]
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 26, 2008 16:22:38 GMT -5
Yay, no more coughing!
I doubt I'll get a straight answer out of the mods, but it's worth a shot...
Does the Survivor win condition prevent either side from achieving their win condition?
The best case scenario obviously would be that I can achieve my win condition independent of whatever else happens in the game - I would think that this is the case, because otherwise it's almost impossible for me to win now.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 26, 2008 16:57:07 GMT -5
Yay, no more coughing! I doubt I'll get a straight answer out of the mods, but it's worth a shot... Does the Survivor win condition prevent either side from achieving their win condition?The best case scenario obviously would be that I can achieve my win condition independent of whatever else happens in the game - I would think that this is the case, because otherwise it's almost impossible for me to win now. How about rephrasing that: DBI? The rest of us don't know if you are a Survivor or not. So any answer given by the mods to your question above is irrelevant.
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 26, 2008 18:11:30 GMT -5
I phrased it in a way that I thought the mods would likely give a straight(er) answer to.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 26, 2008 18:17:59 GMT -5
Do you not see that any answer to your question is meaningless?
Also are you going to vote toDay?
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Post by Rysto on Apr 26, 2008 18:37:33 GMT -5
Vote Hawkeyeop
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 26, 2008 19:59:01 GMT -5
Do you not see that any answer to your question is meaningless? Well, it'd help ME know how to play out the rest of the game, at least, seeing as I'm pretty much stuck between a rock and a hard place. Of course. I'm not voting to hang myself (that'd be dumb), so vote hawkeyeop.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 26, 2008 20:16:59 GMT -5
Do you not see that any answer to your question is meaningless? Well, it'd help ME know how to play out the rest of the game, at least, seeing as I'm pretty much stuck between a rock and a hard place. Of course. I'm not voting to hang myself (that'd be dumb), so vote hawkeyeop. I meant meaningless to the rest of us. If you were only concerned about your game play you could have sent a PM to the mods and not posted in the ongoing thread. I'm not trying to be a bitch here (although I do play one in real life) I'm just saying the answer to the question you asked doesn't help the Baddies at all.
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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Apr 26, 2008 21:19:56 GMT -5
Sorry I'm late, guys. Family emergency. It may be until the middle of the week before I can tune in totally.
This question will be better answered over PM.
Final votecount:
hawkeyeop 7: Rysto, DBI, DS, sinjin, NAF1138, molefan,storyteller DBI 1: BLAM
(I may have missed a vote or two, I know. Hawkeye's still gonna die.)
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