RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Apr 24, 2008 20:17:40 GMT -5
Arkham Asylum: 0555 hoursDotchan woke up that morning and looked around- today will be the 7th day in this asylum since the inmates have broken free! She coughed nervously and went out into the Hall to get a head start on the Day, and to enjoy the first rays of sunlight start to warm the place up. She creeps down to the Cafeteria, a scene of deadly carnage already over the last few weeks, and notes that the body of Nightwing is gone. Odd. Same thing had happened a while back with Batgirl and Robin's bodies. They're just gone. But they certainly weren't around anymore to bother the inmates. Oh well. That's when she notices the large package by the ruined buffet tables- it's a giant Purple and green box. Just left behind it seems. Death by Irony looks around- no one else is up yet- and no one seemed to have noticed the package before. Interrresting.... She waits for the others to arrive, but that package just stays there in her mind, occupying her thoughts. She's such a curious one- What COULD be inside that package? Maybe it'd be something to defeat her enemies? Maybe it could be money? Weapons? Cat food? Who knew? She simply HAD to find out before the others got here! And so she crept back up to the green package, with its giant purple bow, and slowly began to pull apart the Ribbons.... She pulled off the bow, and opened the box: HAHA-HA! HAHA-HA!HAHA-HA! came a loud cry from the speakers within, waking the other inmates that day, as a giant whooshing sound and sharp teeth came rushing out and ENVELOPED our poor Dotchan! And then there was darkness for her, with only the muffled laughter echoing in the background.... 0615 hoursStoryteller was the first to arrive outside the doors of the cafeteria, but Darth Sensitive and NAFwere not far off either. They stood outside, listening to the dying laughter from within, wondering if they should enter the room. "Do you think it's a trap?" said Storyteller? "Well, the sounds died down now, and the rest of us are all here too now... so maybe we should go together as a group" said NAF. "Alright, on 3.... 1...2....3!" cried Rysto as all the inmates burst into the cafeteria to discover what all the commotion was about that morning. And there awaited the strangest sight before their eyes: There was attached to a to a spring (all coming from a giant water tank, with purple and green paper all around the tank) was a GIANT 9 foot long Great White Shark. The spring was apparently tied to the back of the animal's fin, and now the shark was just hanging upside down, lifeless, as it looked downwards from its glazed over black beady eyes. "What... the... Hell... is that?" cried out molefan, as he approached the beast. "Is that blood on the ground? Are we missing anyone?" That's when the BlasterMaster noticed that two of their party WERE Missing! They looked around for dear Dotchan. But she wasn't to be found. Sinjin then said "Wait! Do you hear that?" Hoopyfrood stopped his searching, and replied, "Yeah! I hear it too!" The inmates could hear a groaning noise- slowly getting louder- a ominous growl from the Shark's mouth! Suddenly, the shark's distended belly exploded into bits! From within the belly, a figure stepped out, gasping and breathing hard. "Thank God I was resistant to fucking sharks, eh?" said Dotchan , smiling weakly. "Hey guys! Look over here!" cried out Hawkeye, and called over the other inmates: It appeared that another of their party was not so lucky. Brewha was still laying collapsed in the corner, but now he was bound and unresponsive. Looks like the Bat had struck again! The inmates grit their teeth, and prepare themselves for another Day in this madhouse.... Brewha, AKA The Scarecrow is no longer about to provide help as the Doc/Roleblocker. He was a Baddie.It is now Day 7. The Day will end at 9pm on SATURDAY . Good luck.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 24, 2008 20:30:28 GMT -5
Dotchan was Death By Irony's former handle, correct?Apparently our Doc couldn't self protect after all. (See this post where he claimed he could: psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=tempy&action=display&thread=325&page=3#23002)WIFOM with the scum? Or did he misunderstand his PM. Anyway, I blocked Sinjin last night. It didn't stop a kill, but notice that no belt power went off today. It might mean something, but it might not. Regardless, I think we should continue the unfinished business from yesterday. Time to get this train started. Vote hawkeyop
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 24, 2008 20:38:17 GMT -5
NETA: And what I mean by the blocking maybe not meaning anything is story was blocked one time as well without the belt going off. Unless we have three people who can use the belt, since I'm guessing that tdpats probably could, hence backup godfather. Although, since tdpats wasn't blocked on Night 4, why wouldn't he have used the belt if story was the Bat?
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Post by brewha on Apr 24, 2008 20:44:17 GMT -5
GO TOWN!!
Booo! Scum!
Edited cause I can!
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 24, 2008 20:50:39 GMT -5
Night kill simplified things for me. Unfortunately it also got rid of a role-player too. Well I guess the scum killing order hardly matters, so in the interests of townie solidarity I'm going to follow Hoopy's lead here. Vote Hawkeyeop.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 24, 2008 20:53:21 GMT -5
Also, notice how the color text (literally) of the shark attack laughs match the Joker's color scheme. I better not start seeing Zombie Joker. It's bad enough we have Zombie Batgirl Cheerleader in the night threads.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 24, 2008 21:12:05 GMT -5
Good catch Hoopy. While, I didn't say I could self protect, I did tell the truth. The flash grenade did not affect my ability to self protect as couldn't do it from day one. I had really hoped the scum would buy my little bluff. Yeah, but the likely choices were you or Rysto. At least since you couldn't doc block anyone else, it's possible Rysto got a good investigation. Though, I think a doc block on Rysto if it prevented a kill would have been better since it buys us an extra mis-lynch. (Yes, I talk to dead people. What of it? John Edward makes millions doing the same thing.)
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Post by Hawkmod on Apr 24, 2008 21:12:30 GMT -5
Whaaaaaat? Name 28 good reasons for that vote. Oh and just in case anyone is curious. NAF is Playing for Keeps
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 24, 2008 21:13:43 GMT -5
Whaaaaaat? Name 28 good reasons for that vote. Oh and just in case anyone is curious. NAF is Playing for Keeps You might be do-gooder scum, and dead do-gooder scum at that, but that was still fucking funny!
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Post by Rysto on Apr 24, 2008 21:42:52 GMT -5
I think that I made a bad choice for my investigation. I didn't think too much about it because I didn't expect to live. Anyway, Hoopy came back Baddie.
I can't believe that the Do-Gooders bought brewha's claim that he could self-protect. It was so obvious that he couldn't -- he'd role-block his own protection!
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 24, 2008 21:45:22 GMT -5
I think that I made a bad choice for my investigation. I didn't think too much about it because I didn't expect to live. Anyway, Hoopy came back Baddie. I can't believe that the Do-Gooders bought brewha's claim that he could self-protect. It was so obvious that he couldn't -- he'd role-block his own protection! Well... obviously, they didn't. I, too, did not expect you to live through the Night. That you did worries me considerably. With our Doctor crippled, you'd have been a sitting duck. At this stage of the game, your power is a tremendous threat to the scum. That you lived through the Night, but picked such an essentially valueless target for your investigation, worries me even more. Consider my suspicions of Rysto fully re-formed.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 24, 2008 22:04:47 GMT -5
Ah, but they did. This was the only Night that they could guarantee that he wouldn't self-protect, because they took away his abilities with the Bat flash grenade.
If they knew that he couldn't self-protect, they would have targeted me toNight and brewha toMorrow(actually, brewha would have died Night 6 instead of eating the grenade).
Anyway, I'll explain the reasoning that I put behind my investigation: at this point, we look like we're going to lynch Hawk, Darth and BLaM. That leaves us with the possibility of a four-handed lynch-or-lose scenario, likely between story, DBI, Hoopy and sinjin. My goal was to get information to aid us in that scenario. DBI was eliminated because she's already been investigated. You, story, were eliminated because Koldanar confirmed you as Town. sinjin was eliminated because, as you argued yesterDay, if she's scum she's likely Batman, the Godfather, and immune to investigations.
However, as I type this I realize that I'm a total idiot. I should have investigated BLaM, because he's modfirmed as not being Batman, which means that I could have definitively cleared him had he come back Baddie.
However, Hoopy has been confirmed to be Mr. Freeze. So I would consider him confirmed Town now -- this could be important if we get to that four-handed lynch-or-lose Day.
As to your suspicions, story, I won't be able to dispel them until the Do-Gooders confirm me by killing me.
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Apr 24, 2008 23:34:39 GMT -5
Dotchan was Death By Irony's former handle, correct? Yeah sorry, I tend to think of her as Dotchan, but you are correct.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 3:57:45 GMT -5
I will make one point here. Hawkeyeop seems the most certain scum at the moment. (Note that I say "seems" - until DBI's alignment is revealed we don't know that he's lied about this. It does seem overwhelmingly likely though.) However, he's probably not the Bat. The person who fits best into the Batman role for me is Darth Sensitive. Hell, out of the three suspects Rysto and I have listed apart from TDPatriots, I think he's the only one who could be Batman.
So before everybody jumps on the Hawkeye bandwagon, I think we should at least consider shooting for Batman. There's a larger chance of a mis-lynch (although personally I think Darth's actions speak for themselves, I've made my opinions on that clear enough before and won't bore everyone by doing so again) but there's also the chance of taking out what is almost certain to be the most powerful scum, role-wise, in the game. The question is: does the disadvantage (increased possibility of a mis-lynch) outweigh the potential advantage (in all likelihood we get the Bat) here? I'm not sure.
Personally I'm happy voting for either Hawkeye or Darth; but I'd like to see some debate about this rather than everybody just blindly voting for Hawkeye when, in the long term, it might not be the best option. What do you guys think?
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 4:04:41 GMT -5
Or, to put the above post a lot more succinctly: are we willing to take a risk for what could be a much greater reward, or do we play it safe?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 7:05:20 GMT -5
Or, to put the above post a lot more succinctly: are we willing to take a risk for what could be a much greater reward, or do we play it safe? If you thought Darth was so scummy why did you find my votes on him and Blaster so scummy, especially since I had maintained that finding scum was more important than PFK at the time? Every PFK we lynch, is a mislynch for us. Every PFK scum kill, is a misfire for them. We lynched 2, they lynched 1. They gained on us from this. We lynched 2 PFK that were dangerous to both sides. They killed one who was (apparently) only dangerous to them. They benefitted from all 3 deaths, we only benefitted from 2 and got hurt by 1. This is also a reason why I find Blaster a bit scummy. He was really pushing for a Ryjae lynch that day. He also was trying to hold back the tdpatriots lynch yesterDay, by saying he wanted to here DBI's defense first. But DBI's defense didn't matter. She wasn't going to claim scum, if she claims PFK (which she did) we don't know anything, and if she claims town, well, we still get the most information from lynching tdpatriots. I really wish Rysto would have investigated him, but unlike story I fully believe that his investigation of me was a case of bad strategy, not scumminess. (More on that in a bit.) Speaking of DBI, there is a little wrinkle in that situation we have to consider. It's unlikely, but possible, that she is Batman. We know from tdpat's lynch that we had at least 2 godfather-types. We know that two different detective types got two different reads on her. And everyone seems so gung-ho to claim survivor. It's like the "vanilla town" of this game. So, when hawk gets lynched, if he does turn up town, I think she'll have to be lynched as well. Even if Rysto's still alive. (Yes, if he's scum, he'll be alive. If he's town, scum may leave him alive to create a WIFOM for town for the scenario above.) Now, unlike story I don't believe the idea that Rysto is still alive indicates anything. After all, the scum did believe that our doc could self-protect, otherwise, they would have whacked him instead of Smurf on Night 5. Instead they used the bat grenade (hopefully, they only have one of them) on him so they could take him out last night. And Rysto's investigation wasn't totally useless. There were enough people here who entertained the idea that I wasn't town, that it narrows the pool of unknowns if you choose to believe Rysto. Now, does anyone know why town would have 3 blockers? Aside from night 2, the blockers have never stopped a kill through targeting. (The night 1 blocked kill was Brewha protecting town, not targeting scum. The night 2 was me targeting everybody, so if that didn't stop a kill, I would have wondered what the purpose was.) I mean, the batbelt sucks, but I can't see the belt alone being a good reason to give town that many. If we were meant to have the chance of blocking scum kills, I can't see how it could happen. It's possible we have to block both godfather's in the same night, but what if both got lynched? I can't see the scum instantly losing because they lost the gf's. We only had one daykiller, and he couldn't be blocked since we had no day-blockers. All that being said, there are 10 players remaining. ( Note to the gastards: You still have tdpats alive in the player list.[/b]). We've already pretty much concluded that starting with 7 scum would have been unlikely given the number of PFK that existed, so of the 10, 3 are scum. We're pretty sure hawkeyop is scum. And this correlates with DBI being PFK. This leaves the remaining 2 among Darth, BlasterMaster, and Sinjin. We know the Bat is not BlasterMaster. I blocked Sinjin and no belt went off, so she could be the bat. Personally, I thnk we should go with the bird in hand for now, but if the general feeling is to hit Darth or Sinjin, I have no problems switching my vote. Town pretty much needs to come to unanimous decisions at this point.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 7:20:55 GMT -5
Or, to put the above post a lot more succinctly: are we willing to take a risk for what could be a much greater reward, or do we play it safe? If you thought Darth was so scummy why did you find my votes on him and Blaster so scummy, especially since I had maintained that finding scum was more important than PFK at the time? Good question actually... I was somewhat suspicious, yes, but that was before I came to my own conclusions about Darth. And obviously you're vouched for now. I guess I just hate assuming the obvious in games like this... I've been saying, ever since coming to a definite conclusion of who the scum probably were, I've been trying to look for flaws and see, if I'm wrong about one person, who else could be scum? I still don't think Sinjin is scum though, and for reasons that are all to do with her role. In any case I'm confident of that to say that I won't vote for her this round unless there's pretty much a unanimous agreement among the other "confirmed" townies to go for her. I know that's making assumptions, but dammit we have to assume something here, we've got one mis-lynch left. Everything about Darth screams "scum" to me right now. And when I did my analysis of the episode four vote it looked as though Darth and BlaM might be co-operating with each other - which adds to the already serious suspicions against BlaM. I'd seriously limit the lynch targets to Hawkeye, BlaM and Darth Sensitive for now. If we're wrong about any of those, sorry poor innocent guy whoever you are, and we can reconsider the likes of Sinjin and Rysto.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 25, 2008 7:21:50 GMT -5
Oh, and DBI obviously.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 8:03:06 GMT -5
I'd seriously limit the lynch targets to Hawkeye, BlaM and Darth Sensitive for now. If we're wrong about any of those, sorry poor innocent guy whoever you are, and we can reconsider the likes of Sinjin and Rysto. An interesting point is if DBI is really a godfather, there's still one more PFK out there. It's another reason why I'm inclined to think she is the PFK, and hawk is a liar. I'm kind of taking an Occam's Razor approach to things at this point. (Yes, I know the commonly understood meaning of the Razor is a vast oversimplification of what Occam was getting at, but that's just picking nits.) Because as you said, we have to make some assumptions here. If we don't, we're going to lose anyway. It's possible story is scum as I mentioned yesterday, but 1) I doubt it, and 2) he's got at least some confirmation how ever breadcrumbed and unverifiable it is, which is more than my top 3 suspects do. I just hope he's got some useful trick up his sleeve that justifies his silence, because we don't have much margin for error. The modkill of cookies hurt us big time.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 8:21:40 GMT -5
The modkill of cookies hurt us big time. That is certainly the case. Cookies' death cut our margin from slim to none. Basically, at this point, if we mislynch, we can't win (assuming that DbI is lying and wins for herself if she's alive at the end of the game). Our only chance of winning is to get two scum in a row toDay and toMorrow, then lynch DbI on Day 9, and then play three-handed Mafia on Day 10 with the final scum. Given that, I'm not sure our next move is as clear as it could be. Right now, I unconditionally trust three people out of 10: molefan, NAF, and myself. Two out of ten must die for certain: hawekeyop (certainly scum); Death by Irony (probably PFK) That leaves five: 1. Hoopy Frood: For a variety of reasons, I'm taking him well and truly off my suspicion list. Rysto has said he's town,* and since he's certain Dr. Freeze he's unlikely to be Batman. His Big Freeze power makes absolutely no sense for a scum player - none. It's not just that it'd be more useful for a Townie; it would be actively counterproductive for a Scum player, especially if used very early in the game as it was. He goes on the safe list with NAF, molefan, and me myself. 2. Blaster Master: All we know for sure right now is that he is not Batman, he can only supposedly be killed by Batman, and the scum supposedly cannot win the game with him in it. Now, here's the problem. Assume he's telling the gospel truth. Say we had lynched Batman by some happy accident on Day One. Come Day Two, Blaster Master claims. A Detective verifies his role claim, so we won't lynch him. At that point, the game is essentially over. The scum can't win while Blaster is alive, and the scum can't kill Blaster. So the power Blaster has claimed would make the game tremendously swingy, if it's real. So by virtue of the fact that I don't buy his role claim, I suspect Blaster. 3. sinjin: I don't know why I find her persistently suspicious, but I do. I'll spend a bit of this abbreviated Day looking more carefully at her record. 4. Rysto[/b]: Put simply, I have no idea how to test his alignment. It occurs to me that now that I've raised the question, the scum might very well just leave him alive for good. If he's being truthful, he can identify only one of the remaining scum. All the scum need is one mislynch and we're up a creek, so if they can make Rysto our one mislynch, they're golden. On the other hand, if he's scum, I just don't know how to figure it out. The biggest problem in the remaining game will be figuring out what to do with Rysto. 5. Darth Sensitive: I think he's scum. This one's pretty easy for me. Reasons as previously detailed.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 8:22:07 GMT -5
Crap. Can a passing mod please fix my badly managed formatting up there?
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 9:36:22 GMT -5
2. Blaster Master: All we know for sure right now is that he is not Batman, he can only supposedly be killed by Batman, and the scum supposedly cannot win the game with him in it. Now, here's the problem. Assume he's telling the gospel truth. Say we had lynched Batman by some happy accident on Day One. Come Day Two, Blaster Master claims. A Detective verifies his role claim, so we won't lynch him. At that point, the game is essentially over. The scum can't win while Blaster is alive, and the scum can't kill Blaster. So the power Blaster has claimed would make the game tremendously swingy, if it's real. So by virtue of the fact that I don't buy his role claim, I suspect Blaster. {Underline fixed, cause it bugged me} You're missing the point of my role claim. First, I didn't explain the mechanics of my "Scum Win Preventer" powers. In fact, I specifically said that it is, in fact, possible for scum to win with me alive, just not easily. So it's not a "black or white" they can't win while I'm alive power. I'm also NOT going to divulge the mechanics of the power because it would explicitly lay out exactly how much of a threat I am to them. Second, I can't be killed only by Batman. My "Joe Chill's Pistol" power doesn't work against Batman. All that means is, even if Batman was lynched on the first Day, they'd have to risk getting killed. This is why I didn't give the percentage chance of the occurence. If I said it was a fairly low chance and they surmised I was a high threat. If I said it was a high chance, they'd be unlikely to consider it. Beside, the whole point is, they can't win while I'm alive, and at this point, they probably think they can get me lynched, all the better. They don't have to kill me NOW, they just will want to kill me before the game is over. It's not like leaving me alive allows me to protect anyone or investigate anyone.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 9:41:30 GMT -5
Also, screw it, I still think Rysto is full of it. You're an investigator my ass. So, you investigate someone who had some evidence supporting his claim, instead of investigating someone who didn't? Hell, I've asked on MORE than one occasion to be investigated so we can stop wasting time on this obnoxious confirmation bias against me! You even said so yourself, after the fact, that you should have investigated me. Honest mistake... unlikely, even when I've been sure I was going to die in games past, I still put in the effort to make sure I used my powers correctly, just in case.
Vote Rysto
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 10:22:06 GMT -5
Why is anyone voting for anyone other than Hawk?
Taking out known scum is probably a priority right?
Anyway, my info for the morning said that there is a butler running around the asylum carrying something. So my guess is that Alfred has some special powers.
I don't know what good that will do us, but every little bit helps.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 25, 2008 10:25:02 GMT -5
Why is anyone voting for anyone other than Hawk? Taking out known scum is probably a priority right? Yeah. I agree with that, I guess. I see where molefan is going; I think he wants to get the Bat dead. That said, I'd rather not take unneccessary risks. vote hawkeyeopDoesn't mean we shouldn't be talking about toMorrow, though.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 10:40:21 GMT -5
Anyway, my info for the morning said that there is a butler running around the asylum carrying something. So my guess is that Alfred has some special powers. I don't know what good that will do us, but every little bit helps. Maybe Alfred is the one using the belt? That would give us among scum: 2 godfathers, 1 belt user, 2 goons, and a likely investigator. We've whacked 2 goons ( Kat and Drainbead) and a godfather ( tdpatriots). We'll probably whack the likely investigator ( hawkeyeop, and I'm guessing Gordon would be the character that fits the flavor) today. That leaves us the Bat and Alfred.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 10:59:50 GMT -5
Hold on, train of thought, might not make total sense. If TDPatriots was a Backup Godfather, that means Batman is the Godfather. That means one of his probable powers is to show up as Town to an investigator. That means, if Rysto is lying (and his actions certainly betray him), it could mean that hawk's read on DBI was correct as town, because she's really the Bat. But this means Rysto would have to have some bizarre reasoning for labelling Batman as PFK. Damnit, I lost my train of thought...
...oh wait, there it is. Maybe the scum believe hawk's claim. By presenting the Bat as PFK and contradicting an existing claim, we'd be more likely to buy that she's actually telling the truth, because why would they throw their backup Godfather under the bus like that?
OTOH, if hawk is scum, and according to two people, he's at least lying. How did he get so damn lucky on the Hatter if he wasn't an investigator and so damn wrong on Catwoman? They're both PFK. If he's a scum investigator, why would give a town reading on someone he wasn't sure of?
I just don't see motivation EITHER way for hawk, and the only way I can is if Rysto has some kind of bizarre motivation. Something is screwy here.
The only thing I can say for sure is that we shouldn't trust Catwoman. IF we trust Rysto, we only know that she's PFK. But let us not forget that she is one for treachery. Hell, didn't she have a relationship with Batman? In fact, her wiki article specifically says:
If she IS PFK, maybe she's really a secret scum, like there was in the pirate game? Maybe she IS a survivor but wins at the exclusion of the rest of us? Either way, I'm not sure it's safe to assume it's safe to leave her alive.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 25, 2008 11:10:49 GMT -5
Why is anyone voting for anyone other than Hawk? Taking out known scum is probably a priority right? Yeah. I agree with that, I guess. I see where molefan is going; I think he wants to get the Bat dead. That said, I'd rather not take unneccessary risks. vote hawkeyeopDoesn't mean we shouldn't be talking about toMorrow, though. We should absolutely talk about it, but we shouldn't be voting for anyone but the person who admited to being a Do Gooder.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 25, 2008 11:26:57 GMT -5
We should absolutely talk about it, but we shouldn't be voting for anyone but the person who admited to being a Do Gooder. I must have missed something...
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 25, 2008 11:39:19 GMT -5
If she IS PFK, maybe she's really a secret scum, like there was in the pirate game? Maybe she IS a survivor but wins at the exclusion of the rest of us? Either way, I'm not sure it's safe to assume it's safe to leave her alive. True, but as I said earlier, I'd rather lose to PFK than scum. The numbers most likely sit at 6 town, 3 scum, 1 PFK. So if we take out Hawk today and he's scum. We will be at the level of 5 town, 2 scum, and 1 PFK tomorrow. So if we take out PFK the next day we'll have 4 town, 2 scum the day after that. This brings us to a situation where if we mislynch, we will have 2 town and 2 scum the day after that one. Now, I believe that scum have to number greater than town to actually win, but this means that town have to agree on who to vote for AND they have to win the tossup. Even if they do, the next day ends up with a 1 and 1. Once again, town has to rely on luck. So town only has 25% chance of winning after two mislynches, and that's if they agree on who the scum are when there's more than one of them. We can only safely afford one mislynch. We have to get lucky to win with two mislynches. We are guaranteed to lose with three. Lynching the PFK gives us no real options after that point. That's why lynching the bird in hand is best toDay. Maybe something will become clearer on Day 8.
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