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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 11:18:28 GMT -5
Are we really all voting for a claimed power role?
Really?
I know that we have lynches to burn right now, but come on. Really? Even with the soft claim.
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Post by special on Apr 21, 2010 12:02:51 GMT -5
The goal is to force a Scum to make a claim which can be countered. A Soft claim cannot be countered. and while i agree with this generally i'll also play devil's advocate. since our detective is dead and the power roles were defined in the beginning isn't he by default either claiming doc or mason? now of course, that is a little problematic in and of itself. because if a doc were to counter claim he could just claim mason and out one or more of them. or if a mason piped up he could just claim doc and be safe until the real doc counter claimed. hmm, now that i type this it really is kind of sub optimal town strategy. but if we force Pleo to claim first, then only a Mason or the doctor needs to counterclaim. I've never heard of having ALL town power roles claim to counter-claim a soft claim.
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Post by special on Apr 21, 2010 12:06:24 GMT -5
Are we really all voting for a claimed power role? Really? I know that we have lynches to burn right now, but come on. Really? Even with the soft claim. No, we're voting for our most likely Scum suspect.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 12:09:20 GMT -5
You say tomato I say your crazy.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 12:09:35 GMT -5
um that should be you're
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Post by Pleonast on Apr 21, 2010 12:16:26 GMT -5
Sorry for the late response, I had a minor medical emergency yesterday. It's looking better now. Pleo, I believe the time has come to claim. I'd like other people to comment if they think he should as well. Also, see if I'm missing any points in my outline. If you're the Doctor: 1. You can WiFoM the Scum if you'll be protecting yourself or not (if we get a mason claim later). If you're a Mason: 1. The Doctor can WiFoM if they'll protect you or not. If you're Vanilla: 1. We can lynch you because we won't belive you now If you're Scum: 1. Any claim aside from Vanilla will probably result in your lynching since you'll be counter-claimed. 2. Oh, and, a Vanilla claim will also get you lynched. What you say is reasonable but incomplete. You also need to consider the advantages if I don't make a specific claim. And the disadvantages if I do. If I am a protector or mason and truthfully claim: 1. I can WIFOM scum. Slight advantage to town. 2. Scum will know my role exists. Slight advantage to scum, since they will know exactly what they're up against. 3. Town will have a counterable claim. Slight advantage to town; there'll be no counter-claim, but claim cannot be confirmed since it's possible I'm scum claiming a non-existent role. If I am a vanilla town and truthfully claim: 1. I will be mislynched. Disadvantage to town. If I am town and don't claim: 1. I can WIFOM scum. Slight advantage to town. 2. Town mislynches me for lack of claim. Disadvantage to town. 3. Town waits for counter-claim or dead role before lynching. Advantage to town. 4. Continued lynch pressure discourages scum from targeting me. Slight advantage to town. If I am scum and claim falsely claim protector or mason: 1. Town will have a counterable claim. 1a. My claim is countered. Advantage to town, as they trade power role for scum. 1b. My claim is not countered because true role doesn't claim. Slight advantage to town, because trade is delayed. 1c. My claim is not countered because role doesn't exist. Major advantage to scum, since with the investigator dead, scum would survive until endgame. If I am scum and claim falsely vanilla town: 1. I will be lynched. Advantage to town. If I am scum and don't claim: 1. Town lynches me for lack of claim. Advantage to town. 2. Town waits for counter-claim or dead role before lynching. Slight disadvantage to town. 3. Continued lynch pressure distracts town from other scum. Slight advantage to them. Everyone will have their own ideas as to the likelihood of each result. Mine own evaluation tells me I should not claim--the risk-weighted disadvantages are greater than the risk-weighted advantages.
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Post by special on Apr 21, 2010 12:16:57 GMT -5
You say tomato I say your crazy. Forgive me for not buying into your string theory case against shaggy.
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Post by Pleonast on Apr 21, 2010 12:17:47 GMT -5
One reason I can think of for the partial soft claim is a scum godfather wanting to get confirmed as town. I know this is only on eof many possibilities. You need to pay better attention to the game.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 12:25:46 GMT -5
You say tomato I say your crazy. Forgive me for not buying into your string theory case against shaggy. I am not asking you to. I didn't expect many people to be on board with a case that hasn't been presented. I mostly wanted to see what Shaggy would say if I voted for him and what other people would say if I presented the vote in that fashion. I got what I wanted, more or less. I don't think voting Pleo makes a whole lot of sense right now based on the idea that you shouldn't lynch claimed power roles without a damn good reason. How about this? IF PLEO IS SCUM IT IS VERY VERY VERY LIKELY THAT HE IS THE LAST SCUM. IF THERE IS A NON MASON POWER ROLE OUT THERE CLAIM NOW AND WE WILL LYNCH PLEO AND PROBABLY WIN THE GAME. Ok, case on Shaggy up next.
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Post by Pleonast on Apr 21, 2010 12:26:41 GMT -5
Numbers analysis: we're at 11 players and I'll assume 2 scum. That gives us ((11 - 2) - 2) / 2 = 3.5 mislynches. (Obviously the same as YesterDay, since we did not mislynch or have any extra kills.) If we started with only 2 scum, that'd give us ((11 - 1) - 1) / 2 = 4.5 mislynches, which I consider unlikely. Also unlikely is starting with 4 scum, which would give us one less mislynch (2.5).
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
By the way, I am a physicist, so I can probably answer any questions along those lines, but let's save fluff for the Night thread.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 12:30:00 GMT -5
The Heisenberg uncertainty principle was the analogy I was looking for (Thanks Sis). But I don't see why we need to talk about it in detail, it was just an analogy.
I think you are wrong about a 3 scum start in such a small game Pleo. It's possible but unlikely. The typical C-9 setup (which this would seem to be based on) has similar starting numbers and only two scum. 2 scum makes more sense to me, and is more balanced, unless there are masons in the game.
Hell, if there are masons in the game I support a mason claim as well. It narrows the scum pool down a good bit and will tell us with near certainty how many scum there are.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 21, 2010 12:31:12 GMT -5
Ok, Pleo. I'm curious what you feel about the Total Lost situation. You're willing to vote for story because you think his line of questioning may have led to Total exposing herself, but I (and I do not think I am alone) see your actions as just as likely to have contributed to her death, assuming it was due to something other than blind luck. Your soft claim exerted pressure on the Town power roles no matter what the motivation was.
Sell me (with something beyond "well I know I'm town") on why storyteller should hang for something that, from where I'm sitting, you are just as much if not more guilty of. I do not doubt as to the pressure your claim had on the power roles in the game. I have significant doubt that storyteller sweet-talked Total into showing the scum her ankles. It is a possibility, but one of many.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 12:38:20 GMT -5
So, while we wait for Pleo to claim. I will talk about Shaggy, since it seems that no one else is interested in my vote on him, including Shaggy.
I am voting him based on the death of TL and the revelation that Sis was scum.
To get there with me, you have to assume only 2 scum. I looked at the posts that Pleo put forward from TL, and frankly I think scum got lucky taking out TL. I don't think they pegged her as anything other than a potentially dangerous player.
"Who would do that?" I asked myself. Sure, TL is a strong player, and Story and Pleo have some heat on them, but why TL over anyone else. My best guess is that the scum who killed her killed her because he knows her better than average. I looked at my list of players and only saw one person who might want to kill off TL straight out of the gate, and that was Shaggy.
Does this have anything at all to do with what has happened in game? A little, but not much. This is why I posted the vote the way I did. I wanted to gague the reaction to the vote by shaggy and others. I figure 2 things would happen if I was wrong.
1) scum would jump on me as an easy lynch target. 2) shaggy would defend himself
What happened instead was Shaggy saying "Meh, whatever" and everyone else ignoring my weird behavior while focusing on Pleo's soft claim. Note that I believe Pleo to be likely town and that Shaggy voted for Pleo yesterDay as well.
To me this works out neatly and makes more sense than voting for Pleo, a claimed power role.
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Post by peekercpa on Apr 21, 2010 12:40:52 GMT -5
and while i agree with this generally i'll also play devil's advocate. since our detective is dead and the power roles were defined in the beginning isn't he by default either claiming doc or mason? now of course, that is a little problematic in and of itself. because if a doc were to counter claim he could just claim mason and out one or more of them. or if a mason piped up he could just claim doc and be safe until the real doc counter claimed. hmm, now that i type this it really is kind of sub optimal town strategy. but if we force Pleo to claim first, then only a Mason or the doctor needs to counterclaim. I've never heard of having ALL town power roles claim to counter-claim a soft claim. and ed i was kind of agreeing with you and didn't make it clear enough. no other power roles should claim until we know what pleo is or at least what he says he is. unless of course they are getting ready to get stretched.
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Post by zuma on Apr 21, 2010 12:58:54 GMT -5
"Who would do that?" I asked myself. Sure, TL is a strong player, and Story and Pleo have some heat on them, but why TL over anyone else. My best guess is that the scum who killed her killed her because he knows her better than average. I looked at my list of players and only saw one person who might want to kill off TL straight out of the gate, and that was Shaggy. Actually NAF I don't think this is a bad line of reasoning. I know when I've been scum at the early game stage, without much to go on, I've been content to take out the "strong" players who are familiar with me. If I were scum in this game I'd probably take your ass out early Why do you believe shaggy (not familiar with him at all) would take out TL? Do they have some sort of history here?
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Post by zuma on Apr 21, 2010 13:04:45 GMT -5
And actually I'd be inclined to vote for you as well, all things being equal, as you scare me But they're not equal at this point, so I guess I also want to hear from Pleo like everyone else. I don't really see the point of his soft claim yesterday. I'd like to get the pleo situation resolved before I decide on a vote.
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Post by zuma on Apr 21, 2010 13:06:42 GMT -5
Also i'm fisheroo. That revelation is probably pointless, but name claims seemed to be discussed yesterday. I don't really see the value or harm in revealing that, but there it is.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 13:12:58 GMT -5
Why do you believe shaggy (not familiar with him at all) would take out TL? Do they have some sort of history here? TL and Shaggy are both part of the facebook crowd and have a long history with each other over there. Facebook mafia seems to be a lot more personal in terms of friendships forming and getting to know the other players as people then it is over here. Ed was part of that crowd too, but I am leaning away from his as possible scum anyway, whereas shaggy I had a neutral read on yesterDay.
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Post by zuma on Apr 21, 2010 13:17:19 GMT -5
I think you are wrong about a 3 scum start in such a small game Pleo. It's possible but unlikely. The typical C-9 setup (which this would seem to be based on) has similar starting numbers and only two scum. 2 scum makes more sense to me, and is more balanced, unless there are masons in the game. Wasn't c-9 a mafiascum thing? I played a couple games there a few years ago and there were 2 scum out of 7 total players, if I remember correctly. 2 scum out of 13 players in this game seems unlikely to me.
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Post by Pleonast on Apr 21, 2010 13:21:58 GMT -5
I think you are wrong about a 3 scum start in such a small game Pleo. It's possible but unlikely. The typical C-9 setup (which this would seem to be based on) has similar starting numbers and only two scum. 2 scum makes more sense to me, and is more balanced, unless there are masons in the game. I'm not familiar with the "typical C-9" setup. Looking at straight numbers, 2 scum out of 13 players gives the town 4.5 mislynches, which is a lot--a third of the players. I think that more than one mason is unlikely without a godfather. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Cookies, I explained my reasoning about storyteller and Total as best I could already. If you didn't understand specific parts, ask about them. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ NAF, your reasoning about shaggy is plausible, but not enough for me to change my vote.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 21, 2010 13:31:10 GMT -5
I think you are wrong about a 3 scum start in such a small game Pleo. It's possible but unlikely. The typical C-9 setup (which this would seem to be based on) has similar starting numbers and only two scum. 2 scum makes more sense to me, and is more balanced, unless there are masons in the game. I'm not familiar with the "typical C-9" setup. Looking at straight numbers, 2 scum out of 13 players gives the town 4.5 mislynches, which is a lot--a third of the players. I think that more than one mason is unlikely without a godfather. Ok, I can go with you that 3 scum is possible. I am still going to say unlikely, but not as unlikely as I had originally thought.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 21, 2010 13:42:44 GMT -5
Pleo: I'm specifically asking you to explain, if you can, why you are different than storyteller. I understand your case against storyteller, but the same case can be applied to you with more stick. So why should I ignore that vote to lynch Storyteller instead?
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Post by special on Apr 21, 2010 13:59:51 GMT -5
Ed was part of that crowd too, but I am leaning away from his as possible scum anyway, whereas shaggy I had a neutral read on yesterDay. I had a falling out with the facebook crowd. I wanted to play mafia and they wanted to play drama queens. ;D I'm not liking the assumption of there being only 2 Scum. 3 seems much mroe likely to me. In which case I can see a 2 person masonry or not and the game still being balanced in Idle's eyes. 2 Scum gives us (11-2)/2 = 4.5 mislynches. With no roles that can decrease the number of mislynches, we would get to lynch or lose (3-2) at Day 5 at the earliest. 3 Scum gives us (10-3) = 3.5 mislynches, whouch means we could have potentially reached lynch or lose on day 4 (4-3).
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Post by Pleonast on Apr 21, 2010 14:24:19 GMT -5
Pleo: I'm specifically asking you to explain, if you can, why you are different than storyteller. I understand your case against storyteller, but the same case can be applied to you with more stick. So why should I ignore that vote to lynch Storyteller instead? I guess I don't see much similarity. I made a soft claim. story advocated a town power role take specific action.
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Post by shaggy on Apr 21, 2010 16:50:45 GMT -5
So, while we wait for Pleo to claim. I will talk about Shaggy, since it seems that no one else is interested in my vote on him, including Shaggy. I am voting him based on the death of TL and the revelation that Sis was scum. To get there with me, you have to assume only 2 scum. I looked at the posts that Pleo put forward from TL, and frankly I think scum got lucky taking out TL. I don't think they pegged her as anything other than a potentially dangerous player. "Who would do that?" I asked myself. Sure, TL is a strong player, and Story and Pleo have some heat on them, but why TL over anyone else. My best guess is that the scum who killed her killed her because he knows her better than average. I looked at my list of players and only saw one person who might want to kill off TL straight out of the gate, and that was Shaggy. Does this have anything at all to do with what has happened in game? A little, but not much. This is why I posted the vote the way I did. I wanted to gague the reaction to the vote by shaggy and others. I figure 2 things would happen if I was wrong. 1) scum would jump on me as an easy lynch target. 2) shaggy would defend himself What happened instead was Shaggy saying "Meh, whatever" and everyone else ignoring my weird behavior while focusing on Pleo's soft claim. Note that I believe Pleo to be likely town and that Shaggy voted for Pleo yesterDay as well. To me this works out neatly and makes more sense than voting for Pleo, a claimed power role. Ok now with reasons for the vote this I can respond to. First if I am reading this right, you are saying that you voted me to see if I were scum and would know your wrong if: a) If I defended my self and/or B) if scum and others would jump on you as an easy lynch target So by not defending myself due to nothing given to defend myself from and because Scum or others did not jump all over you for this reason. Which kinda almost in your own words means you were almost wrong, yet some how you are right? Atleast if I am reading that right, it almost seems that way. Maybe it is me but not quite following the train here. Along with that when you did vote me you said you will be posting your reasons why in a bit. So is it not the best and most logical thing to do was to wait till you post said reasons that you said you were going to, to start to really defend ones self? And maybe also why others did not jump on you. To me it would be more a scum tell if you say your are going to be given reasons and the person in the mean time goes all crazy defending before there is anything to defend against. So know wonder why I nor anyone jumped all over you, you said you would be giving reasons. So I atleast and probably most were mearly waiting to hear your said reasons. Seconed with because she was a strong play, well correct me here but does not almost half, if not most of the players here know her as a strong player? So whether I started on FB or not almost seems like a mute point to me. Especially when I have not even played on FB in what like 6 months or more now? I mean I really have almost nothing to do anymore with FB mafia any more. In fact I would wager you, story, peeker, and/or pleo just to name a few, probably has played in just as many games as I have with her. Seeing as I do not play on what ever it is called, the dope site like most of you do with her. Plus I missed a few games here that I know she did play, with the rest of you. Thirdly your right I voted the guy yesterday, and I stand by my vote yesterday, to me I saw no better reason to not vote the guy. I mean we still and I think i am not alone here, really do not know if he is actually a power role or totally BSing about it. I mean with the lynch yesterday I am now having part of me wanting to lean towards he is town but that does not mean I totally am ready to put the guy in the town camp just yet. Lastly here is a thought, I had as I am writting this...maybe since she was a big suporter of Pleo if for argument sake he is town, then maybe she was taken out to help better secure a lynch on the guy? I dunno, just a thought that popped into my head right now. Especially with remembering what you said about the last time this was played with trying so hard to kill him right away, so maybe this time it is the same thing but with a lynching attempt instead of killing attempt. As I said dunno just thinking out loud here. Anyways that is my 2 cents on what your reasons for the vote on me are, seeing as now I actually have something I can address and talk about.
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Post by fisheroo on Apr 21, 2010 17:13:39 GMT -5
[blue]VOTE SHAGGY[/blue]
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Post by shaggy on Apr 21, 2010 17:48:12 GMT -5
Well ok if you want, though in NAF's case he said he was going to give reasons, hence as I said why I never really pushed it or defended myself. Cause I was wanting to wait till he did give his reasons...in this case since you never said anything may I ask why? Since hey if you want to vote go right ahead but atleast if I could know why you are.
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Post by peekercpa on Apr 21, 2010 18:36:30 GMT -5
Well ok if you want, though in NAF's case he said he was going to give reasons, hence as I said why I never really pushed it or defended myself. Cause I was wanting to wait till he did give his reasons...in this case since you never said anything may I ask why? Since hey if you want to vote go right ahead but atleast if I could know why you are. i am going to agree with shaggy, fisheroo. do you have any reasons for your vote or it is just "me too"? and yes i have played a number of games with total but there are several other players here that would be considered scarier to me than her. no offense total but that's just my viewpoint. but i also caveat that with the observation that there aren't too many slackers at all in this crowd, if any. and it's interesting that you metagame about fb. never played there, just here, giraffe and the dope and they all have a different flavor and different nuances.
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Post by DorianPhoenix on Apr 21, 2010 21:44:27 GMT -5
Ed was part of that crowd too, but I am leaning away from his as possible scum anyway, whereas shaggy I had a neutral read on yesterDay. I had a falling out with the facebook crowd. I wanted to play mafia and they wanted to play drama queens. You're a liar. You shut up right now you filthy liar. You stop spreading your poop mouth all over the mafia-sphere. Lying poop mouth. Shut up. Ok, bye bye.
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Post by special on Apr 21, 2010 22:08:56 GMT -5
I had a falling out with the facebook crowd. I wanted to play mafia and they wanted to play drama queens. You're a liar. You shut up right now you filthy liar. You stop spreading your poop mouth all over the mafia-sphere. Lying poop mouth. Shut up. Ok, bye bye. I rest my case. I usually called people idiots not liars, unless I caught them lying. It was much easier catching them being idiots, since everyone is an idiot sometimes.
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