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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:22:22 GMT -5
Post by bufftabby on Jul 27, 2010 10:22:22 GMT -5
Although I wasn't aware anyone was near enough to the vote threshold for the claims to start flying. Waiting seemed unwise, as it would either lead to the lynch of a freemason, a last minute pile-on on a target with no time to defend theirself, or a no lynch. I even tried to avoid fully claiming by pointing out that I could be confirmed, but that was conveniently ignored by the folks voting for me.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:23:36 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Jul 27, 2010 10:23:36 GMT -5
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Lynch me. okay. Vote: Idle Thoughts That said, Idle, and where I agree that the Wolves would love for us not to lynch and we need the information, weren't you just threatening us all with voting for us if we voted for you?
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:24:34 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 27, 2010 10:24:34 GMT -5
Yes, but I changed my mind now.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:25:07 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Jul 27, 2010 10:25:07 GMT -5
Yes, but I changed my mind now. Fair enough.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:25:13 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jul 27, 2010 10:25:13 GMT -5
Well all right then. Vote: Idle Thoughts
--FCOD
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:25:36 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 27, 2010 10:25:36 GMT -5
Plus...meta gaming here..I'm not really all that caring to play or stay in a game anymore. I thought I was, but I wasn't..so the sooner I'm out, the better.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:30:48 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jul 27, 2010 10:30:48 GMT -5
I've already stated my opinion that seeking information through lynches in Conspiracy is overrated. This is an entirely different animal than standard mafia. Prior to the claims I could have given you a compelling argument for a no-lynch. Essentially by denying scum information (claims) the nightkills are more likely to fall pro-Town. But with 3 claims already on the table, that factor no longer applies.
That said, with 3.5 hours to the end of the Day, I don't see a lynch as even being possible (except Idle, since he's gunning for himself now).
Vote: Idle Thoughts
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:34:05 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 27, 2010 10:34:05 GMT -5
Just to be clear, nphase, redskeezix, septimus, Special Ed, MentalGuy, eureka, nanook, you are all voting for a freemason. statistically likely, With 7 votes and asuming 3 freemasons, there is a 66.4% chance I'd be voting for one. (3/24 + 3/23(1 - 3/24) + 3/22(1 - (3/24 + 3/23(1 - 3/24))........) or are you claiming freemason?
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:38:35 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 27, 2010 10:38:35 GMT -5
I've got 8-6 Idle over bufftabby
still 5 short of lynching him
Vote: Idle Thoughts
for the time being.
Idle, how about a role claim if you're going to go down?
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:39:04 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 27, 2010 10:39:04 GMT -5
I've got 8-6 Idle over bufftabby still 5 short of lynching him Vote: Idle Thoughts [/color] for the time being. Idle, how about a role claim if you're going to go down?[/quote] NETA, now 9-6 since I've voted
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:38:59 GMT -5
Post by bufftabby on Jul 27, 2010 10:38:59 GMT -5
Dammit, ed, you know how I feel about math! *shakes fist*
And I know you were joking, but just to be crystal on this: yes, I am a freemason.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:39:40 GMT -5
Post by septimus on Jul 27, 2010 10:39:40 GMT -5
I have no skill at telling whether questions or the tone of comments are Townish or scummish, but I do get general vibes. And sometimes I feel comments are illogical, or misconstrue what another is saying, either of which would seem scummy. For examples: sachertorte's #7 seemed potentially useful, even if only weakly so. Those who deny this are being illogical and hence suspect. (This does not imply a sachertorte Town-tell, BTW.) idle's #13 seems true (or almost true), making idle Town. Those who deny this are suspect. There are also some misconstructions, probably oversights, but nevertheless possibly suspicious. Honest Moley's #45 ascribes an opinion to Eureka without mentioning the idea was first advanced by redskeezix's #16. There are enough of these that I don't consider a Lynch vote unless I see at least two of these weak scum-tells against the same player. But voting against Idle seems very suspicious to me since several players, not just me, are arguing that Idle's #13 was a very strong Town-tell. Some players are giving me Town vibes. special ed, for example, partly because he's voting against some of my own suspects. (Nevermind that he votes me! Some do sense scum vibes from me, though I'll try to argue against that in this post.) I feel that I've been taken out of context. The post where I voted to lynch bufftabby was I've been re-reading the messages to choose lynch candidate(s), and one name keeps coming up on top. Understand that I strongly think Idle's post is Town and truthful (or almost truthful); that many other players seem to agree with that assessment; and therefore that those attacking Idle or his list may be scummy. Red just explained this better: I'm reading this vote as overly contrived. I'm not even convinced that bufftabby thinks idle is scum, which to me says she is. There are a few other players who "ping" as anti-Idle, but bufftabby seems most suspicious. Vote bufftabbyMy reason for voting may be a poor one, but it is clearly stated. bufftabby then challenged, and I mentioned that another player also sensed a different scum-tell on her. Then: I don’t think you should be following anybodys lead if you are town, irrespective of whether they are mafia experts or not. The idea that you are willing to follow their lead is disconcerting to say the least and suggests some sort of affiliation with them. Not to mention the persistent ‘I’m not scum’ theme prompts me to Vote: septimus [/color] [/quote] I'm relaxing my rule. A single misconstruction is good enough if it's against me: Vote: duvsie [/color] I will observe that special ed, who sends me Town vibes, also voted duvsie and this does give me more confidence in this vote. If that's a scum-tell, implying he and are Wolves together or something, then so be it. I'll defend myself from scumminess charges. Three of my statements have been singled out: For example the correct list might be [Idle's] posted list with one Town role changed to Cabalist. This started as an arbitrary example, and I now agree it is probably very unlikely. Better examples where Idle's list is "almost correct" might be that he's left 24 roles correct but changed his own, perhaps away from a town power role. Anyway, I am trying to encourage open discussion about Idle's claim; isn't that pro-Town? The following comments, I still think, are clown-tells rather than scum-tells. (FWIW, I've been continually misunderstood and misread throughout my life. I think I'll start a MPSIMS thread at SDMB on that very topic, when this game concludes.) For one thing, I wanted everyone to know that I am not a Cabalist! ;D ... I'm a rank newbie, and will doubtless say many stupid things. (This may help my personal survival, as I'll be viewed as a liability rather than asset to my faction.) My attempts at humor aren't premeditated, so I can't really guess if I'd have posted this way were I really scum, but I'm doubtful. My own self-evaluation here is that I'm happy about my Towniness, not afraid of my Scumminess. Idle's started a poll, so I'd like to start one! Whether you think I'm scummy or not, do you think the guy who wrote " For one thing, I wanted everyone to know that I am not a Cabalist! ;D " did so to elicit a chuckle, or out of fear of being thought scummy?
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:41:23 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 27, 2010 10:41:23 GMT -5
I've got 8-6 Idle over bufftabby still 5 short of lynching him Vote: Idle Thoughts [/color] for the time being. Idle, how about a role claim if you're going to go down?[/quote] Nope, no role claim. Kill me if you want to eventually find out what I am (this is Conspiracy so I assume it follows the tradition of not saying what people are until two days later).
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:45:15 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 27, 2010 10:45:15 GMT -5
Nope, no role claim. Kill me if you want to eventually find out what I am (this is Conspiracy so I assume it follows the tradition of not saying what people are until two days later). OK, now this warrants a vote. Refusing to role claim when you know that even if you die, we have to wait a billion years (in game terms) to get any information from your death is a definitive, no-two-ways-about-it, anti-Town choice. It is a good way to generate a few Nights and Days full of confusion about what everything that has happened so far actually might mean. vote Idle Thoughts
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:51:21 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jul 27, 2010 10:51:21 GMT -5
No role claim, Idle? WTF!
Now I am definitely leaning towards NOT believing your list. I can't think of any reason you'd refuse to claim if you know you're gonna die unless you're not Town.
--FCOD
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:51:41 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 27, 2010 10:51:41 GMT -5
I've got 8-6 Idle over bufftabby still 5 short of lynching him Vote: Idle Thoughts [/color] for the time being. Idle, how about a role claim if you're going to go down?[/quote] Nope, no role claim. Kill me if you want to eventually find out what I am (this is Conspiracy so I assume it follows the tradition of not saying what people are until two days later). [/quote] Which is why I would expect you to claim, because don't we get your alignment first? So at least by then we could trust you if you were Town....
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:52:23 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jul 27, 2010 10:52:23 GMT -5
OK, now this warrants a vote. Refusing to role claim when you know that even if you die, we have to wait a billion years (in game terms) to get any information from your death is a definitive, no-two-ways-about-it, anti-Town choice. It is a good way to generate a few Nights and Days full of confusion about what everything that has happened so far actually might mean. Actually, not claiming is the most pro-Town thing Idle Thoughts has done today. We don't need to know his role right away, we mostly need his alignment. Furthermore, his claim won't actually tell us that. We won't know what Idle Thoughts is until the real by Pleonast anyway.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:53:58 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 27, 2010 10:53:58 GMT -5
I'm going to go sweat this hangover away by mowing the lawn. I'll be back before the end of the Day or I'll be passed out at the curb.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 10:56:17 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 27, 2010 10:56:17 GMT -5
OK, now this warrants a vote. Refusing to role claim when you know that even if you die, we have to wait a billion years (in game terms) to get any information from your death is a definitive, no-two-ways-about-it, anti-Town choice. It is a good way to generate a few Nights and Days full of confusion about what everything that has happened so far actually might mean. Actually, not claiming is the most pro-Town thing Idle Thoughts has done today. We don't need to know his role right away, we mostly need his alignment. Furthermore, his claim won't actually tell us that. We won't know what Idle Thoughts is until the real by Pleonast anyway. Will you two ever agree on anything? Contrariwise!
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:05:52 GMT -5
Post by metallicsquink on Jul 27, 2010 11:05:52 GMT -5
Hi Everyone. I'm back. I'm trying desperately to catch up but the Day has gone from 3 pages to 11 in my absence. I see that we do not have a consensus on a lynch candidate yet and I don't want to throw out a vote just to get someone lynched. That being said, however, it seems that in my brief skim of the Day, Idle is pretty much asking to be lynched so I will add him to my list of votees (I still have a vote on nphase. As I read through what I missed, I will see if there is any reason for me to change that).
vote Idle Thoughts
Also, someone mentioned that there have been three claims toDay. I see that bufftabby is claiming freemason. Would someone be so kind to tell me who else has claimed? I'm still hoping to have time to read everything before end of Day today but I'm also trying to catch up on work right now as well.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:07:13 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 27, 2010 11:07:13 GMT -5
OK, now this warrants a vote. Refusing to role claim when you know that even if you die, we have to wait a billion years (in game terms) to get any information from your death is a definitive, no-two-ways-about-it, anti-Town choice. It is a good way to generate a few Nights and Days full of confusion about what everything that has happened so far actually might mean. Actually, not claiming is the most pro-Town thing Idle Thoughts has done today. We don't need to know his role right away, we mostly need his alignment. Furthermore, his claim won't actually tell us that. We won't know what Idle Thoughts is until the real by Pleonast anyway. I don't see how that's true. When Idle's alignment is revealed, if he's Town, we will know his actual role if he claims it toDay (I mean, assuming a Town Idle wouldn't false claim). If he doesn't claim his role toDay, we won't know his role until Pleonast reveals it.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:08:19 GMT -5
Post by metallicsquink on Jul 27, 2010 11:08:19 GMT -5
Hi Everyone. I'm back. I'm trying desperately to catch up but the Day has gone from 3 pages to 11 in my absence. I see that we do not have a consensus on a lynch candidate yet and I don't want to throw out a vote just to get someone lynched. That being said, however, it seems that in my brief skim of the Day, Idle is pretty much asking to be lynched so I will add him to my list of votees (I still have a vote on nphase. As I read through what I missed, I will see if there is any reason for me to change that). vote Idle Thoughts Also, someone mentioned that there have been three claims toDay. I see that bufftabby is claiming freemason. Would someone be so kind to tell me who else has claimed? I'm still hoping to have time to read everything before end of Day today but I'm also trying to catch up on work right now as well. I'm not sure why my color didn't show up on that vote so I'm trying again. vote Idle Thoughts [OOG] Is there a "post preview" or "advanced" function on this board for posts that don't involve quotes? In IE, I know I could do Alt+S to get to a posting page that wasn't a quick post but that doesn't seem to work in Firefox. [OOG]
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:09:15 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 27, 2010 11:09:15 GMT -5
I'm not role claiming. Think what you want and happy voting.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:13:17 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 27, 2010 11:13:17 GMT -5
You know what? I've changed my mind. sach is right.
<cue the locusts>
If he's Town, and if he's already made up his mind to die, Idle is right not to claim. It creates uncertainty for any Scum looking to false claim - they can't reliably know whether Idle is going to come up as what they are claiming, and whether there will be overlap or conflict.
I withdraw my previous statement.
Now, what to do with the vote? Having reconsidered my previous argument, I'm left with no particular reason to believe Idle is Scum. I am also left with the following likelihood: if Idle is not lynched toDay, no one will be. But if Idle is Town, in this particular case, is his lynch actually preferable to a no-lynch? I'm not sure it is.
I'll be around all Day, so there's plenty of time for me to restore this vote if I need to. But for now, unvote Idle Thoughts
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:13:27 GMT -5
Post by sachertorte on Jul 27, 2010 11:13:27 GMT -5
I don't see how that's true. When Idle's alignment is revealed, if he's Town, we will know his actual role if he claims it toDay (I mean, assuming a Town Idle wouldn't false claim). If he doesn't claim his role toDay, we won't know his role until Pleonast reveals it. But why is knowing Idle's role important? What benefit does it give Town? What benefit does it confer above and beyond knowing his alignment? More importantly, what benefit does it give scum? I based a large portion of my play as Coroner in C1 on this distinction.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:16:13 GMT -5
Post by Red Skeezix on Jul 27, 2010 11:16:13 GMT -5
If I'm reading the tealeaves right, then there is a scenario where Idle's play makes a some sense. Either he is what I think he is, he's doing something that seems incomprehensible for a town player to do, or he's one of the scum team members and needs to be lynched anyways.
vote Idle Thoughts
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:25:28 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jul 27, 2010 11:25:28 GMT -5
Idle, it seems to be you are hyper focused on your list and only your list. If you spent more than 5 seconds reading my post you'd realize exactly what my role is, and whether or not it is on your list.
Mason huh? Can't say I'm surprised, I have a terrible time getting a read on you.
Unvote: buftabby
Since you seem to be focusing exclusively on your list and nothing else this game, and you're asking for it:
Vote: Idle Thoughts
And it seems my claiming for Eureka was the correct move, since he still hasn't checked in and there's lesss than 3 hours til Day end.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 11:51:23 GMT -5
Post by BillMc on Jul 27, 2010 11:51:23 GMT -5
It's kinda nagging me that he has a secret power that needs him to die to use it - ubermiller. I won't be back until after day end so
Vote: idle
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 12:04:20 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 27, 2010 12:04:20 GMT -5
I don't see how that's true. When Idle's alignment is revealed, if he's Town, we will know his actual role if he claims it toDay (I mean, assuming a Town Idle wouldn't false claim). If he doesn't claim his role toDay, we won't know his role until Pleonast reveals it. But why is knowing Idle's role important? What benefit does it give Town? What benefit does it confer above and beyond knowing his alignment? More importantly, what benefit does it give scum? I based a large portion of my play as Coroner in C1 on this distinction. Well, for one, it would finally lay to rest the "Is Idle's list true or not?" I've said it before and I'll say it again: Once it's found I'm Town and, consequently, that my list is TRUE (and not changed in any way by me), Real Town can then use it for the rest of the game...it makes claims of extra false roles all of extinct! Nobody can claim Vig, because there is no Vig. Nobody can say they were raised by a Witchdoctor, because there is no Witchdoctor. Nobody can claim redirect by Magician or Warlock, because there aren't those roles. So what the hell are you on thinking that my role doesn't give Town any good info? It helps them out greatly, which is in my best interests since I want to win! As for staying in the game, though...meh. I don't really care. I'm volunteering since it seems a hell of a lot better than scrambling around and possibly not having ANY lynch at all. I don't care what you say, ANY lynch is better than NO lynch. Lynches give people info...as I said before, wolves would just love to not have a lynch over and over and over and over, and I expect subtle ways they'll try to keep it being that way because then it keeps the Town in the dark.
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Day One
Jul 27, 2010 12:07:07 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 27, 2010 12:07:07 GMT -5
I mean...look at it this way...if no-lynching keeps happening, the wolves aren't going to die any other way other than being killed by Vamps. THERE IS NO VIG....so that puts Town at a huge disadvantage. So how are Wolves going to die if we're not killing them off in the Day? Because I seriously doubt they'll be killing themselves at Night.
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