Metallic Squink and JustBeingGinger: you both come in Today saying you were suspicious of colby, but I see neither of you had a vote on him Yesterday. It's been a busy few days, and the other thread is 14 pages; did you voice suspicions of him Yesterday? And if so, where? If not, why the suspicion now?
As for Meeko's vote on the late colby, I'm still trying to figure out what we can learn about it. It seems somewhat likely that the vote buyer and whoever killed colby are not both scum (and, of course, it's possible
neither are). It would make more sense for scum to buy a player's vote and put it on a townie that could get themselves lynched (or even a scummer who might not necessarily be in too much danger of being lynched). Putting the vote on a player that they're also killing still nullifies the player's vote, but doesn't seem to have as much of an advantage as other options. Idunno; I guess it's not enough of a difference to make too strong of an inferance.
Honest Moley, what are your thoughts about last Night (or anything else, for that matter)?
Thank you Dirk.
My answer is that I feel I've been slapped with a metaphorical fish (again). I had a "pecking order", and not only have the two of my top five scum picks gone, one was vanilla town and the other was the cop. Doesn't exactly make me feel good about my other picks.
Thoughts on the night kills and the voting situation:
So here's what we know:
Day Two:
Pinkles is forced to vote for
Archangel, who was suspected by a few people before then.
Day Three:
Meeko is forced to vote for
Colby, who was a lot of people's top suspect (including mine).
(Incidentally, I'm making the assumption here that
Meeko is not lying about his vote-steal, which seems pretty safe. It just makes no sense for him to choose
Colby as his target, if he and the vote stealer are both scum. Plus, if somebody else really did get their vote nullified, there's two people - the vote stealer and his / her real target - who could contradict
Meeko.)
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Colby was killed last night. It seems as though there was an awful lot of night-activity centred around him, considering he was vanilla town; somebody considered him worth killing, and somebody (I presume a different person) considered him worth stealing a vote for. Here's another possibility though. What if
Ed investigated
Colby, and because of it ended up dead? In other words, whatever power killed
Colby might also have killed people who visited him at night?
So that's a possible scenario where there's two killers, and one got incredibly lucky (or unlucky, if he / she was town).
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But let's go on and assume there are three, and that each killer has a specific alignment - either scum, town, or PFK / third-party.
I doubt scum would have two kills per night this early in the game unless something seriously screwy happened on Night 1 (which is possible) and there was a delayed kill. In which case, there are presumably two scum, acting together, both of whom were able to kill last night. If that's the case, whoever has the "delaying" power may know one of the scum. Something to bear in mind.
Third and most obvious possibility: we have a third-party killer (or serial killer), a scum kill, and a town-sided vigilante kill.
A vigilante would take out the third-party, without question. I don't see the scum killing
Colby unless they were convinced he had a power role, but a serial killer could very well want to take out one of the scum, if that's what he believed Colby was. If the scum knew or even suspected
Ed was a detective, he'd be an obvious kill. And looking back, Ed's style of play in the last two days could equally be explained if he were scum or a power role trying to evade detection. (I've played as scum with Ed, hence my suspicions of him.)
But if there's a third-party killer in the game, why didn't he, and why didn't the scum, kill on Night One? I can understand a vigilante choosing not to shoot (if the option to do so is available), but why would a Serial Killer not shoot?
And to answer that I say: is there any evidence that
any night action succeeded on Night One? I'm deliberately
not fishing for roles here (in other words DON'T CLAIM UNLESS YOU HAVE GOOD REASON TO!) but I've seen mass roleblocks used in games like this before (Hoopy Frood's "big freeze" power from Arkham Nights comes to mind). Again,
I'm not asking for claims; but this is definitely worth bearing in mind if we have another bloody night.
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So let's make some assumptions. Here's my two counter-scenarios.
1)
Ed and Colby, or possibly
Ed and Fluid (although Colby makes much more sense) were killed by the same person because of some power that affects not only the target but people who visit that target, which seems unlikely, or
2) Somebody has a delaying power that caused the first scum kill to be delayed one night, AND the vig choose not to shoot or was unable to do so on night one. But in that case, you have to assume that the scum either targeted
Colby or
Fluid on Night One. Not sure I like that assumption, despite
Colby's history.
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Unless one of those two scenarios is correct, I would think the most likely scenario is this:
- All night actions, or at least night kills, were blocked on Night One. The only action that we know succeeded was the "vote steal", which is a day power. I don't know whether the blocker was town, scum, or third-party, but it makes the
least sense that he or she was scum because I don't see why scum would block their own night-kill.
-
Special Ed was killed by the scum. They may have known or theorised that he was a cop. (For the newbies among us, this is a lot easier than you'd think, if you know who's scum and who's not it's often not that difficult to pick out the power roleplayers.)
-
Colby was killed by a third-party killer. Maybe looking for a vig claim, maybe looking to thin out the scum ranks.
-
Fluid was killed by a town-sided vigilante.
If all of this is the case, what does it say about the vote stealing?
We're assuming for the moment that
Colby wasn't killed by the scum. So him being voted really says nothing about the alignment of the vote-stealer; unless they're the same person as the serial killer (highly unlikely), they wouldn't know that Colby was going to die.
Things to bear in mind here:
- Both
Pinkles and
Meeko have been under some suspicion. As have their respective targets at the time they were targeted,
Archangel and
Colby.
-
Colby (vote-getter) and
Pinkles (whose vote was stolen) are both confirmed vanilla town.
Archangel's alignment and
Meeko's alignment are both unconfirmed.
Would a townie vote-stealer role take
Pinkles' vote and place it on
Archangel? I gotta say "yes", if they thought Archangel was scum. Likewise, would they take
Meeko's vote and place it on
Colby? Again, yes, but one thing bothers me. Why not place the vote on the
same person? If they can't do so, it limits the usefulness of the role late-game, and may even make it a severe liability. If they
can do so, why not stick to the same suspect? Unless they've changed their mind? But if anything
Angel seemed to be under more suspicion, not less, on Day 2.
Now would a scum vote-stealer take
Pinkles' vote and place it on
Archangel? Yes - IF
ARCHANGEL WAS TOWN. Continuing along those lines, would a scum vote-stealer take
Meeko's vote and place it on
Colby? Again, yes. What if
Meeko was scum? Possibly - the last person who had his vote stolen was town, which might sway some people. I don't know if they'd have chosen one of their own who was as suspected as
Meeko was though. It seems odd to make one of their own vulnerable this early in the game.
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If I had to weigh everything up, I'd say that the most likely scenario involves the following players:
"A", "B", "C", "D", "E" - scum. There wouldn't be likely to be more than five in a game with a serial killer. Possibly only four, although I think that would be slightly unbalancing things in favour of the town.
Let's say that:
"A" tried to kill someone on Night One, and failed;
"B" tried to kill Ed on Night Two, and succeeded;
"C" has a vote-stealing power. (And may be the same person as "A" or "B" I guess. Hey, I just like all these letters.)
"D" and "E"'s powers are unknown at the moment (one could hypothesise a role-blocker and scum detective maybe, but it'd be pure speculation, even more so than this list is!)
Then we have:
"F" - A malicious third party killing role who failed to kill on Night One, again due to "G", but who killed Colby on Night Two.
"G" - A town-sided, or possibly third-party, role blocker who decided to block all night kills, and possibly all night actions, the first night. (
Why they did this, I don't know, but I can guess. Possibly they felt threatened at night, or didn't think they'd survive the next day. Possibly they wanted to use their most powerful weapon as early as possible rather than risk being killed before they couldn't use it. Possibly they thought that a mandatory vig kill, as well as possible scum and third-party kills, would be badly informed on Night One and would be better uninhibited later in the game.)
"Archangel" - tentatively, town. Based on the idea that the scum wouldn't target one of their own on the second day with an automatic vote. Obviously this relies on the vote-stealer being scum.
"Meeko" - again tentatively, town, although I think I'm on more certain ground here. Unless the vote-stealer is town, I just don't see Meeko being scum, whether he's telling the truth or not.
And you don't have to tell me that this is based on an awful lot of assumptions!
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What could upset this long string of assumptions?
If there's no third-party killer (which would be pretty surprising to me given
Colby's death); if the vote-stealer is town (again, this would surprise me, although not as much); if night-kills weren't blocked during Night One; or if
Angel or
Meeko flipped scum. If any of those things happened, I would have to reconsider. (I would also hate my life just a little for wasting time on the massive analysis you've just read when I could have been out getting laid.)
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PHEW that was a long one. And what I personally get out of it is this:
I see the vote-stealer as likely to be scum, Archangel to be town, and Meeko to be town.And that's all for the moment, at least until I read back through everything possible and start trying to look for more suspects now that
Ed and
Colby are gone!