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Post by Zeriel on Oct 17, 2007 14:49:30 GMT -5
This is getting odd.
Very odd.
Btw, Pygmy, I did mean panama, as Cookies already said for me.
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Post by Hal Briston on Oct 17, 2007 15:34:52 GMT -5
And you just happened to use your power, which could only be worked on your role and which just happened to be the first player Jubal tried on the person who is your own brother on the series? Well, keep one thing in mind here -- yes, I agree that CarieDot hitting that 3.7037037037037032% chance (proud of me, Blaster?) of finding me right off the bat is remakable -- however, my attempting to kill you had nothing to do with our respective roles. With the way you were looking, I'd wager any other crew member with a granted nightkill would've gone the same way. In fact -- if I were scum, why in the world would I have tried to kill you? Give a re-read to Night Five -- the "perfect knowledge of drain" thing would've lead, if not to a lynch, at least to a hell of a lot of scrutiny. I'd be a foolish scum indeed to try and off such a townie target.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 17, 2007 16:52:17 GMT -5
I'm feeling very stumped and humped at the moment. How about some fresh perspectives and eyeballs from those of you who have been quiet toDay?
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 17, 2007 17:21:33 GMT -5
Yeah... my gut feeling is that somethings not right here. River going off and killing her brother.... Actually, based on the Day 1 info, you had asked me, who do you think would be MOST likely to go crazy and turn on the crew.... I'd have said River.... So I wonder now... =( And the other thing that doesn't sit well with me is Jubal, the insane sadist/ attempted rapist, wanting to "assist" Rivers with kills, when on the show they seem like sworn enemies....
My guts just churning at this info. And i fear that maybe Jubal is a recruiter searching for a very specific player... Ie: River. So if we start having continued killings, perhaps River will continue to kill is my fear, and that she's turned to the dark side.
But I don't have any evidence for it other than this stuff isn't making sense for two people who seem to be mortal enemies on the show to be cooperating here.... But I'll wait off on that.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 17, 2007 17:44:12 GMT -5
Well, I'm certainly willing to sit on it for now and continue thinking. I'm happy with my vote right now, however I would happily change to CIAS if votes are needed as they're about equal.
As for others if votes build up on them, it will depend, at least for me. (I.E. I don't think I'd vote for Cookies or dnooman. I do think I'd vote for Captain Klutz or maybe dotchan)
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 17, 2007 18:10:05 GMT -5
How about a good ol' fashioned vote count? Haven't had one of those in a while.
3- Pygmy Rugger (Roosh, mtgman, dnooman)
1- CatinaSuit (zeriel) 1- Dotchan (Pygmy Rugger) 1- Hockey Monkey (Idle Thoghts)
and that's it!
6 of 17 votes cast with 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.
5 Days left (give or take) Happy Hunting!
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 17, 2007 19:09:30 GMT -5
Speaking of Captain Klutz, he has pretty much been a non-descript fixture in the background to me for most of the game, which is worryingly reminiscent of Kyrie in M5, who I didn't start paying much attention to until the very end, and who almost succeeded in pulling a slow and steady one over on me until the very end of the end game.
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Post by nesta on Oct 17, 2007 21:09:46 GMT -5
I want to respond to Cookies because she responded to my post on Day 3 wondering if it was her or Drain Bead that was scum. Of course we now know Drain was, so it's a bit of a moot point, but I feel like I owe you a response.
In your claim post you listed three possibilities for your investigations: that the person you identified is Mingo and that Mingo would then die; that they aren't Mingo; or that something interfered, in other words you were blocked. You used this as the basis for saying Drain was lying. What I found convenient was that I think you were probably next up on the block, so it seemed that if you were scum that claim would be a good rabbit to pull out of your hat. Now, I didn't find it strange you would probably know if you were blocked, but that you listed it as certain knowledge and I was under the impression that you were saying this was spelled out in your PM. Looking back at your claim post you don't say that, so maybe I was wrong that you meant to imply this.
So, a quick question: was the fact that you would know that you were blocked spelled out in your PM? If not, did you specifically ask the Mods about this or were you assuming this to be one of the results you would get?
That's not saying I don't believe you. I'm now only slightly skeptical (which I am of all unconfirmed claimers) because it could have been a planned move between you and Drain if you were both scum. Mostly I believe your claim now, but at the time I did find something about your claim strange, and claiming certain knowledge that you would know you were blocked is what I keyed in on.
No, I think you did the right thing because if your claim is true you had very good reason to believe Drain was scum. I think if I were in your shoes I would have claimed a little sooner, but that's neither here nor there because there was still plenty of time left in the Day at that point.
For what it's worth I think that post is a good example of how lost I was at that point in the game, and probably still am. I thought Idle was scum strongly enough to doubt Drain's scuminess just because Idle was so sure of it. We all know how that turned out.
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Post by nesta on Oct 17, 2007 21:46:49 GMT -5
Continuing my thoughts, as I saw Hal's claim upon preview. Jubal's character being designed specifically for giving River a weapon really clashes with my color gutcheck. So that shrinks the margin of the benefit of the doubt where Hal is concerned, and that shrinkage extends to dot as well, but now we're in Wacky Wifom World again. Would two scum implicate each other in such a fashion? Actually if I remember the Jubal episode correctly I think there is a way for the color to fit. Jubal was hunting River for the reward (but he wasn't "Alliance" himself I don't think), but then River got the best of him in the end. The last scene of the episode is Jubal floating off into space, probably to end up dead. (Or was he? We'll never know.) So there is precedent for Jubal finding River and River gaining a killing ability. (And here dotchan is, indeed. [That's a reference to the episode for those who haven't seen it.]) Not that color / canon means anything in this game it seems. I do find it odd that dotchan/CaerieD wouldn't have known that their target was River, and that once they found River that they wouldn't be informed that they had fulfilled their investigative role. I have some suspicion that dotchan is holding something back, and that possibly finding River was part of dotchan's win condition that is not with the crew. Almost like an SK or something. I'm willing to give her a little slack, though, because Cookies claims a similar investigative role and that seemingly crew names like Kaylee can be scum so I don't think the names denote alignment. I hesitate to even try to apply color to Hal-River since it could go just about anywhere, even vanilla I suppose.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 17, 2007 21:49:02 GMT -5
My PM included all three options, but it wasn't crystal clear to me whether the third option would apply to me being blocked, or Mingo being protected, or both. The mods confirmed (without confirming one way or the other as to whether I could indeed be blocked or Mingo could indeed be protected) that I would perceive either as something had gone awry.
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Post by nesta on Oct 17, 2007 21:56:11 GMT -5
That reminds me of another reason I remember finding your claim strange. It would have seemed to confirm a roleblocker in the game and it seems NAF/Kat have been careful not to reveal information like that. Reading back through your claim and now that you cleared up that they specifically didn't reveal this helps me trust you a little more.
Thank you for clearing that up.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 17, 2007 21:56:18 GMT -5
Not that I think nit-picking over the canon is overly useful, but Jubal was tricked/manipulated into his free-floating predicament by abilities, skills, and intelligence that River possessed prior to the encounter with Jubal. I'm not aware of her gaining or otherwise acquiring anything from Jubal.
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 17, 2007 21:59:22 GMT -5
No, I did know that my target was River. (In fact, all I got back from my results was a "is River/isn't River" result.)
But I wanted to see if my role had any other side-effects because I thought that being able to confirm Hal's rolename but not his alignment meant that I was more or less a Vanilla for the rest of the game, so I tried investigating two more times.
After drain bead ate it, I posted my thoughts in my Night 4 PM to the Mod, and that was when I got confirmation that my role was a one-shot ability.
In other words, I don't have any more Easter Eggs to give out.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 17, 2007 22:13:10 GMT -5
That reminds me of another reason I remember finding your claim strange. It would have seemed to confirm a roleblocker in the game and it seems NAF/Kat have been careful not to reveal information like that. Reading back through your claim and now that you cleared up that they specifically didn't reveal this helps me trust you a little more. Thank you for clearing that up. Some sort of tip like that was certainly what I was fishing for when I asked for clarification, but they did not indulge me.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 18, 2007 1:07:27 GMT -5
No, I did know that my target was River. (In fact, all I got back from my results was a "is River/isn't River" result.) But I wanted to see if my role had any other side-effects because I thought that being able to confirm Hal's rolename but not his alignment meant that I was more or less a Vanilla for the rest of the game, so I tried investigating two more times. After drain bead ate it, I posted my thoughts in my Night 4 PM to the Mod, and that was when I got confirmation that my role was a one-shot ability. In other words, I don't have any more Easter Eggs to give out. This post basically sums up my reason behind my vote for you. I don't see any reason why the Mods would reply to your PM on your second and third investigations without letting you know that they were in vein. I understand that it's a closed set up, but one would think that you would at least know your role, and powers, at least. Why would they wait until Night 4 to let you know? It just doesn't make sense to me. And if you knew what your role and powers were, why would you think they had some side effect on some other player besides the relationship that's been realized between River and Jubial?
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 18, 2007 6:35:49 GMT -5
hmm... that's a valid point. Once discovering River, why would you assume there's still another River out there? Were you trying to recruit someone else? What EXACTLY does your role SAY you do? we know what you did, but what was it that your flavor is indicating? Ie: WHY would you give River the weapon, Dotchan?
I could see myself voting for Dotchan or Pygmy at this point actually. so your answers would be quite appreciated.
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 18, 2007 7:50:01 GMT -5
Roosh, did you not read my posts at all? I wasn't looking for a second River, I was experimenting with my role to see what else it might do and I didn't expect the Mods to answer my questions.
And I told you, I had no idea that I gave Hal anything. (However, since Caerie D's icon had the infamous trigger word on it, I can see how from a flavor point of view a visit from Jubal would turn River into some sort of ninja.)
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Post by Captain Klutz on Oct 18, 2007 8:20:22 GMT -5
My "people to look at" list
hockey monkey For being on lots of bandwagons and voting based on "Top Dog"
CatInASuit Being on lots of bandwagons and being a bit too keen to get people to claim. Although according to 5.83 you say that you have been trying to look scummy??
panamajack There have been lots of revelations but nothing that sheds any light on your blocked attack. All we have is your word that it occurred.
CaerieDot/Hal Briston This is really odd. CaerieDot has a power that only works on one person and finds that person at the first attempt. She gives him an ability to kill someone but doesn't know it. She does not know that she has used up the entire extent of her ability. And then the receiver of the gift uses it on the one character that they have a real connection to (story wise). It's either an amazing series of coincidences or something bad is going on.
Vote CaerieDot
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Post by Captain Klutz on Oct 18, 2007 8:22:39 GMT -5
Speaking of Captain Klutz, he has pretty much been a non-descript fixture in the background to me for most of the game, which is worryingly reminiscent of Kyrie in M5, who I didn't start paying much attention to until the very end, and who almost succeeded in pulling a slow and steady one over on me until the very end of the end game. As I said before, yes, my posting frequency is a bit erratic. But I have been posting and voting throughout the game.
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 18, 2007 11:02:59 GMT -5
I was experimenting with my role to see what else it might do and I didn't expect the Mods to answer my questions. And I told you, I had no idea that I gave Hal anything. This is what I was asking about. Did YOU have any idea WHY you were doing what you were doing? You still haven't answered that part. I substituted in "looking for riveR" because I can't read your PM. To me it sounds VERY evasive. Because Cookie's is VERY explicit. She is to find her Twin. Once she finds her twin, she kills her twin. There is a "Looking for Who", a "what happens", and a "why it happens" You have said basically "you didn't know Who, until prompted (that's the part i didn't like that you didn't point out you knew it was River until AFTER Hal said he was River, makes me suspicious of you for that.) You continued looking/ "experiementing" which also makes me wonder... what in your role made you believe there was more to it.... You also didn't know "what happens". ie: you didn't know you'd give him a weapon. Again... suspicious. You also didn't know "Why". You still haven't said WHY your flavor was telling you to find River. I think you might know the answer to some of these Questions, and you're being quite evasive. Cookies was QUITE explicit when she had to roleclaim, she listed out Who, What, Where, Why she had to do the things she did. You haven't told us anything, and you keep holding the cards to yourself at this point, only revealing things AFTER others have said them. You also haven't EVEN stated who you looked at in the days after Hal. You're only going to say that AFTER i've asked you about it. Your reluctanse and your evasiveness makes me believe that you are up to something, something that you don't want to reveal to us. Unvote Pygmy Vote CaerieChan
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 18, 2007 11:53:34 GMT -5
Also, Just going back to Caerie's Day 1 Posts: here's a summary:
Reply #107: Expresses uncertainty on the Closed setup. See advantage in the fact that scum will be more in the dark than usual. But then points out that "we don't know how many power roles or what kinds we have either."
Reply #109: Replies to Blam's ideas of cancelling one-off votes (and it's kinda an important one, so I'll quote the whole reply): I'm not sure if I'd say that's the best way of doing things, but avoiding the one off votes probably is a good idea. I've been the timid townie who wanted to avoid the whole bandwagon mess and planted my vote well away the action and you know what it did? It came back to bite me on the ass. Some kind of crazy bandwagon of frothing madness doesn't do much good either, but, "Oh, I didn't vote on any of the top candidates, so you can't blame me!" is completely unhelpful if you're crew. The only players who would gain an advantage from that would be scum. -She's anti-One off Votes (basically being the only person to vote someone). She's also Anti-Bandwagons. But she's also against those who claim "oh I wasn't voting for a top candidate so don't blame me!" people, suggesting she's anti-Anti-bandwagoners too.
Reply #129: Tries to act as peacemaker between CaiS and FCOD: "So let us remember that differing theories and viewpoints != differing affiliations. "
Reply #138 (Her response to Idle's jumping on Reply 129 as scummy")": she just expresses confusion that Idle is agreeing with her, yet calling her scummy. Doesn't understand why she looks scummy. .... This to me is subjective. I understand Idle's point, but I'm not sure If Caerie did too, or if she's being dilberately obtuse. Idle's point: "But I often find the ones trying to play "peacemaker" is a prime suspect for scum themselves. I know I was the one saying (when I was scum) "Don't trust anyone, not even me" and "No, don't mod sha them" even when we were hoping they'd get modkilled. Substantial? Not at all. But just something that sorta trips my meter."
Reply #380 (her final post it seems): i'll just quote it. Okay, at this point I'm feeling more of a scumvibe from dnooman than anyone else, but dnooman has posted so little. I've gone back over the whole thread and there's so very little to go on here. I haven't posted very much myself, but geez. Even I've offered more at this point and I'm horrible on the first Day. It's possible we're looking at somebody with a pro-crew power role who's trying to be cautious, but I don't have the feeling that that's the case.
At this point, I suppose I'm going to give it a little while longer and poke about a bit more and see if dnooman has anymore to say before I actually cast my vote.
I am a bit suspicious of drainbead at this point, though. 'twixt the way she drew extra attention to her vote switch and her statement of being uncomfortable with her vote switch after making it, it just struck me as a "plausible deniability" gambit for later. ~~~~~~~ She does point out drainbead, but she will not pursue it. This makes me wonder if it's scum linking scum. Also, she says she'll vote for Dnoo, and she's smudged Drain, but she'll NEVER vote on Day1 at all then according to Hal. I disliked this play. Because not only does she Not vote, she had replied to Blam in post 109, how much she dislikes the people who drop single votes, and how she hates people who bandwagon as well. She called those people scum even, but then by not voting, it easily hides herself, and it's another reason why I hated the "no lynching" option of Day 1 so much. She basically states the scummy people are the ones who voted on Day 1, and then refrained from voting. Why she never voted for Drain, I wonder... she certainly smudged her, but never followed it up.
:shrug: But those were her posts with content the rest were fluff. It says she's only had 12 posts that why it's easy to do go back and check them out.
But there her posts are for the rest of you guys as well to easily find.
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Oct 18, 2007 11:58:48 GMT -5
I'm in 100% agreement that Dotchan looks hinky. I still don't think we are getting the full story. And we aren't getting the full story because it would mean certain death for a scum. Methinks there is too much tiptoeing around the subject for this to be a crewperson claiming.
For this reason, I will
vote Dotchan
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 18, 2007 12:09:09 GMT -5
At this point I'm going to vote panamajack. I don't like how we've gone so long without any further insight into what went on on Night 2. I would be comfortable switching over to dot, and will do so if necessary. But there is plenty of momentum going her way already. We have a few more days to hunt scum, and we seem to catalyze more useful information when we have at least two candidates on the block to rub together. And yes, I still have the pressure bruises to prove it.
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 18, 2007 12:14:53 GMT -5
Oh, right, because protown players never withold information for no good reason. This is what I know: 1) I am Crew. 2) Caerie D investigated Hal on Night 1. 3) Hal is River. 4) I am out of Easter Eggs. This is what I didn't know, prior to Night 4: 1) My ability had no affect whatsoever on other players. 2) My affect on River was a one-time occurrence. This is what I have to take Hal's word on, because I can't confirm what he says: 1) That he was aware of being investigated on Night 1. 2) That he got a one-shot killing ability.
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Post by Zeriel on Oct 18, 2007 12:28:22 GMT -5
That just seems awfully...light on detail, in light of some of the other players who are out there with claims.
I'd be comfortable with a lynch of CIAS, panama, and to a much lesser extent dotchan and Hockey Monkey.
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Post by Hal Briston on Oct 18, 2007 12:49:43 GMT -5
Oh, right, because protown players never withold information for no good reason. Ummm...no, they don't. I have no problem with townies witholding info, but it better be for a reason. I've been very wishy-washy on your status. I tended to believe you were crew, simply because you were assisting a crew member. However, the fact that you were unaware of that assistance coupled with your above statement are enough to tip the scales for me. Vote dotchan.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 18, 2007 12:59:29 GMT -5
I could swallow some level of difference between my PM and dot's (alleged) PM, as there would be differences in the mechanics of the roles, but fuck if I know how to try and get inside the mod's heads to try and quantify/qualify what a "reasonable" amount of difference would be.
Is there anything in the Mafia canon regarding how protection or role-blocking interacts with these gunsmiths/mad scientist type roles?
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 18, 2007 13:16:21 GMT -5
1) My ability had no affect whatsoever on other players. Again for the 3rd time I'll ask.... WHICH other players? you're still not telling....
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Post by Parzival on Oct 18, 2007 13:45:25 GMT -5
My thoughts on the Hal/River dotchan/Jubal thing:
I don't think that two plain Alliance scum would invent such a story and then have it come out in such a fashion. It draws attention to them without really confirming either one (note that their stories are at least slightly at odds with each other.)
We also know that somebody did kill (or nearly-kill) Idle last night, and it seems most likely that it was Hal. If he is anti-Crew or Alliance scum or recruited, maybe he could have done it, but it seems an elaborate stunt to pull; plus, it was not unreasonable of him to find Idle Thoughts scummy.
I'm inclined to think that the events did go down as described - CaerieD/Jubal Early discovered Hal Briston/River on Night 1 by sheer luck*, gave him the means to kill, which he used last night.
This doesn't mean that dotchan isn't Alliance scum, or other anti-Crew. It doesn't mean she is, either. But it does sort of seem like she may be holding back.
If I had to rank the choices, I'd do it thusly : Both pro-crew is most likely. Dotchan scum & Hal crew is more likely than vice versa, and both scum is least likely.
*It almost strains credibility when you think that the same night Dio investigated Hal, and may even have been blocked by drainbead.
Right now I'm sort of suspicious of whatthefrak, but I think I'm also going to check out hockeymonkey, mostly because I haven't considered her much, and it's time to take a look at the people I haven't suspected yet.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 18, 2007 14:01:15 GMT -5
Greetings all,
I have been watching the thread for a while to see what gets mentioned.
My 2p on the situation.
In terms of night kills, I still reckon we have a scum kill and a Vig kill on certain nights with Hal's special on the last night.
I am finding dotchan's evasive manner concerning her role as extremely suspicious.
I also notice that nothing has come out about panamajack's mysterious night visitor. Now, given my assumption above, this would mean that either the scum or vigilante attempted to kill him that night. But we already have had two kills on that night, which makes me think he was not attacked at all.
dotchan said she had no more gifts to give out, so that would mean either we had a third person with a night kill ability on that night or another gift giver helping out with night kills again.
So, Either Idle Thoughts and whatthefrak are the best blockers in the business, or we have third blocker we don't know about, to go with the third attacker we don't know about or haven't seen since or maybe even drainbead was feeling nice to the town, or another gift giver, but quite frankly it makes no sense at all.
That is way too many requirements for this to be for real. Isn't it?
vote panamajack
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