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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 21, 2011 9:28:29 GMT -5
Match pace: Archangel Outrun: mOODYmITCHY Why? You came in and dropped this vote on moodymitchy without a single comment. In fact, the only gameplay-related comment I can find you making about mitchy all game is this, from Day 3 Post 23 (snipped to include only the parts relevant to this topic): What are your thoughts on MoodyMitchy, JustBeingGinger and Deni? I haven't paid enough attnetion to the game to have opions on as many people. Moody's post earlier pinged me a little. So why did you vote for moodymitchy here?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 21, 2011 9:29:59 GMT -5
Did you claim earlier or is this just to lend support to your theory? Just to support my theory. OK, so you didn't claim 'earlier', are you claiming 'now' (that is, in Post 207)? Or was that Post just to support your theory?
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 21, 2011 9:31:23 GMT -5
Looks like I miss all the fun.
Brief thoughts. Have read through guiri's analysis of Deni, storyteller and myself and the case against Deni appears to make sense.
Also concerned with Pinkies, who has wandered in, dumped a vote and wandered off again each Day. And is now off for two weeks, so who knows.
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Post by Deni on Jul 21, 2011 9:40:41 GMT -5
Ok, first of all moodymitchy I didn't think you were an easy lynch at all. I thought Archangel was and that was why I was looking further. In all honesty you weren't in my radar until guiri compelling case. After reading it I went through your posts with a different perceptive and yes, I did take your post as you did know Archangel was town but I suppose that was the wrong wording you definitely seemed to think she was town. It wouldn't have pinged me at all if your vote wasn't on her at the time. I am willing to bet there are scum in the attempt on Archangel which makes JBG thoughts on Cap more reasonable as a scum kill not a inactive vote. However since this is normal play for Cap I would prefer to see him mod killed instead of lynched. Guiri, I just want to say I was not "attempting to stay under the radar" I truly wasn't around. I will concede though, that my poor participation during D1 & D2 are worthy of a lynch the non playing player.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 9:41:05 GMT -5
Just to support my theory. OK, so you didn't claim 'earlier', are you claiming 'now' (that is, in Post 207)? Or was that Post just to support your theory? huh? No, I hadn;t claimed yet at all.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 21, 2011 9:55:00 GMT -5
Lightfoot, Deni, CIAS, Story, what are your thoughts? Am I completely off base here? Is Archangel a better lynch candidate and I'm just missing it? With the benefit of hindsight, I think you're missing something ;D
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 21, 2011 10:10:48 GMT -5
OK, so you didn't claim 'earlier', are you claiming 'now' (that is, in Post 207)? Or was that Post just to support your theory? huh? No, I hadn;t claimed yet at all. OK, let's try to make this very clear. You posted this (snipped to include only the relevant sections): Just to add more zaniness to the fray: Here are Wikipedia's 5 lemmings from the genus lemmus: I am a Wrangel Island Lemmin Lemmus Wrangel Island Lemming (Lemmus portenkoi) [/b][/color] [/li][li]Silver Jan[/b] [/li][li]Special Ed[/b] [/li][/ul] [/quote] So...are you claiming to be a Wrangel Island Lemming, or are you not?
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 21, 2011 10:24:05 GMT -5
May as well do some analysis while I can.
Inner Stickler: subs in for metallicsquink Day 2: #12: Nothing jumps out about cassidy's post, votes texcat over suggesting fubbleskag should not reveal results straightaway which is not pro-town #37: comment about scum offing fubbleskag's result each night would be easy to block for a doc. #135: responds to CIAS, says never played game where scum just picked off investigated townies. Cop shouldn't reveal info sounds like scum not wanting info to come out. #167 OOG comment
Day 3 #137: vote archangel about not knowing same species, comment on Captain Pinkies. #203: unvotes archangel, votes moodymitchy agreeing with others reasons #206 unvotes moodymitchy following mason reveal #208/#209: comment about Ed claiming and mass vanilla claims which could leave all scum without a place to hide. (hopes it isn't broken) #216: asks Ed is we should lynch SilverJan or himself to prove his theory #220: comment that mason breadcrumb looks verifiable.
Thoughts: For Day 2, I'm surprised he voted texcat given that several people were saying fubbleskag shouldn't reveal all unless necessary. For Day 3, the votes have been follow on's, joining the bandwagons and then unvoting as data becomes available. Interesting back and forth between him and Ed about vanilla claims.
Now, it really should be unlikely that the game can be broken through vanilla claims, so I don't get why he is asking if should lynch players to prove it. Ed is right, as more people go down, will show whether it is viable or not.
Then again, thinking about it, why has Ed claimed now?
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 21, 2011 10:31:14 GMT -5
If my hypothesis is correct (and it's based on Meeko being systematic or at least symmetrical), then there would be 3 of each type of lemming, and 1 of them would be Scum. Which, of course, leads me to beleive that Silver Jan would be Scum. (as an aside, this causes me tremendous guilt as I'm currently pushing to lynch her in another game) Thinking about it, if this was the case, it would be game breaking to the extreme. But if you can get people to follow it and you know that the distribution of lemming types among the scum does not follow this pattern, it would be a great way to get a couple of mislynches and hide a couple
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Post by CatInASuit on Jul 21, 2011 10:34:36 GMT -5
Out of the ones I've looked over, I think guiri's case against Deni looks the strongest, although I'm curious as to where Ed is going with this and also about Sticks' responses to it.
Outrun Deni
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 10:40:43 GMT -5
huh? No, I hadn;t claimed yet at all. OK, let's try to make this very clear. You posted this (snipped to include only the relevant sections): Just to add more zaniness to the fray: Here are Wikipedia's 5 lemmings from the genus lemmus: I am a Wrangel Island Lemmin Lemmus Wrangel Island Lemming (Lemmus portenkoi) [/b][/color] [/li][li]Silver Jan[/b] [/li][li]Special Ed[/b] [/li][/ul] [/quote] So...are you claiming to be a Wrangel Island Lemming, or are you not?[/quote] Earlier in that same message I stated: I am a Wrangel Island Lemmin I did forget to add the g to the end there. But yes, I am a Wrangel Island Lemming.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 10:48:00 GMT -5
Then again, thinking about it, why has Ed claimed now? Why not? If nothing else, it will spark discussion. And if my theory is accurate, it'll help us tremendously. There's no guarantee I'd be alive tomorrow to share it either.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 10:48:57 GMT -5
If my hypothesis is correct (and it's based on Meeko being systematic or at least symmetrical), then there would be 3 of each type of lemming, and 1 of them would be Scum. Which, of course, leads me to beleive that Silver Jan would be Scum. (as an aside, this causes me tremendous guilt as I'm currently pushing to lynch her in another game) Thinking about it, if this was the case, it would be game breaking to the extreme. But if you can get people to follow it and you know that the distribution of lemming types among the scum does not follow this pattern, it would be a great way to get a couple of mislynches and hide a couple Of course, I'm not advocating that we follow it. I'm just suggesting the pattern so that as we gather more information,w e can see if it holds true.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 21, 2011 11:27:36 GMT -5
Ed, Would you be so kind as to answer the question I post in Post 240: Why did you vote moodymitchy earlier?
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Post by LightFoot on Jul 21, 2011 11:31:47 GMT -5
Then again, thinking about it, why has Ed claimed now? Why not? If nothing else, it will spark discussion. And if my theory is accurate, it'll help us tremendously. There's no guarantee I'd be alive tomorrow to share it either. You could have just as easy done your analysis without including yourself. We have 4 confirmed Town alive and you have effectively given Scum a narrower field to aim at the Doc if you are Town
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Post by moodymitchy on Jul 21, 2011 11:41:18 GMT -5
I'm now wondering (though he'll call it smudging)... why guiri feels the need to build "compelling" cases against people ?
He was doing it with me , until I was revealed (not confirmed but not countered) to be a Mason.
Now he has done a big WOW on Deni.
Was his case against me because he knew that both Archangel and I were TOWN ?
Was he looking at me closely because my vote was on Archangel and if she had been lynched.. he could have pointed to me on Day 4 with more conviction?
Overall I'm finding his contribution to be helpful but do wonder about the need to build the compelling case.. Maybe it's just his way.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 11:52:55 GMT -5
Ed, Would you be so kind as to answer the question I post in Post 240: Why did you vote moodymitchy earlier? I didn't vote for moody mitchy back then. I was responding to a question by guiri. I voted moodymitchy when fubble cleared Archangel.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 11:53:57 GMT -5
oh, wait, I get it.
yes, I voted moody after guiri had made his case.
I had early stated that it was quite compelling.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 11:56:34 GMT -5
Why not? If nothing else, it will spark discussion. And if my theory is accurate, it'll help us tremendously. There's no guarantee I'd be alive tomorrow to share it either. You could have just as easy done your analysis without including yourself. We have 4 confirmed Town alive and you have effectively given Scum a narrower field to aim at the Doc if you are Town At this point, I would do whatever I could to get the Scum to continue to shoot for the doctor. If they do and miss, we'll have 5 confirmed Town toMorrow. 6 if the doctor goes ahead and claims. That would be splendid! And odds are still that they'd miss. And don't forget, fubble might have an extra person to confirm from Night 1 as well. We can't be sure they'll still be alive, but hey.
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Post by LightFoot on Jul 21, 2011 12:15:42 GMT -5
Ed That is the second time you’ve said something that appears to advocate a vanilla claim I’m against it Too early for any claims that are not required to prevent a miss-lynch IMO
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 12:56:15 GMT -5
Ed That is the second time you’ve said something that appears to advocate a vanilla claim I’m against it Too early for any claims that are not required to prevent a miss-lynch IMO How did I advocate it? I think we're very close to a mass claim, but maybe not quite there.
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Post by LightFoot on Jul 21, 2011 13:46:07 GMT -5
Ed That is the second time you’ve said something that appears to advocate a vanilla claim I’m against it Too early for any claims that are not required to prevent a miss-lynch IMO How did I advocate it? I think we're very close to a mass claim, but maybe not quite there. *When you claimed VT while mapping out the lemmings *When you said”At this point, I would do whatever I could to get the Scum to continue to shoot for the doctor.” These bits could have encouraged a Lemming or three to chime in with their genus showing. Which I think would be a bad idea.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 21, 2011 14:07:34 GMT -5
outrun Special Ed
I just don't buy it.
You made the case on Day 2 that if colby flipped Scum, that implied that Archangel was as well, but you never really explained why. But after colby did flip Scum, it gave you a reason to vote Archangel today. When fubbleskag saved Archangel from an almost certain lynch, you moved your vote to moodymitchy, despite you never having expressed any real suspicion of him all game. And after LightFoot derailed that bandwagon to pull moodymitchy back from the brink, you go back to your 'default vote' of Captain Pinkies. At least you know there's nobody left to clear him...
You of all people would, under normal circumstances, be telling us how we shouldn't lynch Pinkies; we should leave him for the Vig. It's not like you to take the 'easy way out'.
Your defense of your vote on moodymitchy doesn't ring true to me either. Yes, I know you said "quite compelling, guiri". That doesn't exactly sound like a ringing endorsement of guiri's case; more like something you just threw out there, so that you could refer back to it if needed to support your lynching of a Townie.
The one thing that bothers me just a bit is your vote on colby on Day 2. You put him into a tie with me, and probably were in some part responsible for the fact that he was lynched. So would you buss a teammate like that just so you could build Town cred and make the conenction between colby and archangel?
Yes, you most certainly would. I'll refer you back to the Dr Seuss game on Giraffe.
Add in your "I'm claiming vanilla/no, I didn't claim anything/yes, I did claim" routine, the fact that you may (or may not) be advocating a mass claim, your 'theory' suggesting Silver Jan must be Scum (unless the theory is wrong, which you admit it quite likely is), and it all comes out smelling bad.
I'll be the first to admit that this is by no means an iron-clad case. It's based in equal parts on circumstantial evidence and 'gut feeling'. There you have it.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 14:13:01 GMT -5
How did I advocate it? I think we're very close to a mass claim, but maybe not quite there. *When you claimed VT while mapping out the lemmings *When you said”At this point, I would do whatever I could to get the Scum to continue to shoot for the doctor.” These bits could have encouraged a Lemming or three to chime in with their genus showing. Which I think would be a bad idea. um, no..you're missing a fine distinction. I would love it if the Scum shot at the doctor. I don't actually want them to find him, silly.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 14:23:21 GMT -5
outrun Special EdI just don't buy it. You made the case on Day 2 that if colby flipped Scum, that implied that Archangel was as well, but you never really explained why. But after colby did flip Scum, it gave you a reason to vote Archangel today. When fubbleskag saved Archangel from an almost certain lynch, you moved your vote to moodymitchy, despite you never having expressed any real suspicion of him all game. And after LightFoot derailed that bandwagon to pull moodymitchy back from the brink, you go back to your 'default vote' of Captain Pinkies. At least you know there's nobody left to clear him... You of all people would, under normal circumstances, be telling us how we shouldn't lynch Pinkies; we should leave him for the Vig. It's not like you to take the 'easy way out'. Your defense of your vote on moodymitchy doesn't ring true to me either. Yes, I know you said "quite compelling, guiri". That doesn't exactly sound like a ringing endorsement of guiri's case; more like something you just threw out there, so that you could refer back to it if needed to support your lynching of a Townie. The one thing that bothers me just a bit is your vote on colby on Day 2. You put him into a tie with me, and probably were in some part responsible for the fact that he was lynched. So would you buss a teammate like that just so you could build Town cred and make the conenction between colby and archangel? Yes, you most certainly would. I'll refer you back to the Dr Seuss game on Giraffe. Add in your "I'm claiming vanilla/no, I didn't claim anything/yes, I did claim" routine, the fact that you may (or may not) be advocating a mass claim, your 'theory' suggesting Silver Jan must be Scum (unless the theory is wrong, which you admit it quite likely is), and it all comes out smelling bad. I'll be the first to admit that this is by no means an iron-clad case. It's based in equal parts on circumstantial evidence and 'gut feeling'. There you have it. Several points. 1. I was quite clear as to why I thought Archangel would be Scum if colby flipped Scum: 1a. On Day 1, Archangel voted colby even though trepa took the lynch by many votes. 1b. On day 2, when it appeared quite possible that colby would die, she flip flopped without giving a reason, yet stating that she had a reason. 1c. I concluded it quite possible that she was distancing herself from colby on day 1, and then trying to save him on Day 2. 1d. Really, the case was quite clear. How you failed to understand it is beyond me. 2. I did express suspicion of moodymitchy. However, it was only in my agreement with guiri's case. I didn't make an independent case on him, that much is true. 3. I did move my vote to Captain Pinkies. We need to lynch someone. 4. I, of all people would want the Vig to take out Captain Pinkies. Did you also fail to notice me making that request repeatedly on day 2. Did you fail to notice my comments about how disappointed I was that the Vig failed to kill Captain Pinkies on Day 3? Are you even paying attention?!? 5. guiri's case was compelling. When the case against Archangel was proven wrong, I moved to it. Shouldn't really be a surprise. I found it compelling, then, suddenly, I was compelled to vote for him. 6. Your suspicious of me for putting colby into a tie with you, which eventually led to colby's lynch. yes, it's possible that I could have been busing him. To use that point against me is most certainly confirmation bias. 7. When you asked me if I had claimed Vanilla. I amswered that I had. I even pointed out the statement where I claimed it. Your confusion might be coming from my answer to a question that Inner asked before you, and which I answered before. He asked me if I had claimed earlier or if I was just claiming to support my theory. I replied that I had not claimed earlier...meaning I had not claimed earlier than my actual claim where I laid out my theory. Somewhere we miscommunicated. (I blame you, but YMMV)
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Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
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Post by Meeko on Jul 21, 2011 14:32:17 GMT -5
Archangel (2) : captain pinkies, gnarlycharlie Captain Pinkies (2) JBGinger, Special Ed Deni (2) : Guiri, CIAS Special Ed (2) : Archangel, Suburban Plankton
Just about 8 and a half hours to go, if I can do the math free-handed.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 14:35:51 GMT -5
half the players aren't voting?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 21, 2011 14:48:16 GMT -5
Oh, so now it's my fault that you're Scum, is it? ;D half the players aren't voting? The late 'reveals' on Archangel and moodymitchy did throw things into a quandary. There are 4 people who unvoted and have not yet found a new place to place their vote, and 4 people who have not yet voted at all Today. Notably, our Cop and both of our Masons are currently among the 'non-voters', so hopefully that lessens the chance of the Scum being able to railroad someone with a flurry of late votes.
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Post by special on Jul 21, 2011 14:58:25 GMT -5
Oh, so now it's my fault that you're Scum, is it? ;D half the players aren't voting? The late 'reveals' on Archangel and moodymitchy did throw things into a quandary. There are 4 people who unvoted and have not yet found a new place to place their vote, and 4 people who have not yet voted at all Today. Notably, our Cop and both of our Masons are currently among the 'non-voters', so hopefully that lessens the chance of the Scum being able to railroad someone with a flurry of late votes. That's it? No comments on how I proved the bulk of your case against me is just wrong? See if I invite you to my birthday party next year.
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Post by LightFoot on Jul 21, 2011 15:09:43 GMT -5
Apologies for my disappearance. I could give the whole sordid story, but I think I’d be better off spending my time actually participating. So, starting with a few random observations: 1. I do not understand the reasoning behind fubbleskag with-holding (the alignment portion of) the results of his investigations. Doing analysis of voting patterns and results is always easier and more effective with more information on the alignments of the players involved. Also, we have a Vigilante. Confirming Townies will help the Vig maximize his/her value. I can’t see any counterbalancing advantage to keeping the results secret. What am I missing here? I recall this was discussed at length I was one who ‘didn’t get it’ then too So you toss out a carrot yourself with no substance- that’s what started Archangels wagon This was written Tuesday. Being busy is one thing, but reading the contributions D1 there really isn’t much there (total of 12 posts in game) idlemafia.com/index.cgi?action=userrecentposts&user=storyteller0910 Outrun Storyteller ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ This may change as the day wanes but I wanted to get some meat on the plate
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