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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 17, 2012 18:37:35 GMT -5
Oldred, Town, is dead.
Colby11, Town, is dead.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Day.
Day will end on Friday at midnight.
OR if 13 people vote to end Day early.
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 17, 2012 19:19:39 GMT -5
Hmph...going after my confirmeds now.
Since I'm still here, I'm going to work under the assumption that A) we still have a doc, and B) that I'm protected. Until a doc turns up dead, I'll be keeping townie investigations (like last night's) under wraps for now.
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Post by Archangel on Jun 17, 2012 19:22:47 GMT -5
I want to vote Inner Stickler for reasons discussed yesterday (he's the most likely of the people Pleo "cleared" to be scum.
But I'm WiFoMing myself all over again. Surely Pleo realized that it would only be a matter of time before Hal investigated him/her. So this could be a ploy to make us lynch non-participatory town.
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Meeko
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I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
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Post by Meeko on Jun 17, 2012 20:10:49 GMT -5
Hmph...going after my confirmeds now. Since I'm still here, I'm going to work under the assumption that A) we still have a doc, and B) that I'm protected. Until a doc turns up dead, I'll be keeping townie investigations (like last night's) under wraps for now. But, at any moment one or both of your assumptions prove wrong, then what? Can someone better at math than me figure out if the night kills of last night imply a kill was blocked? |
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Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
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Post by Meeko on Jun 17, 2012 20:26:21 GMT -5
Vote Patricia
I just think your efforts against me are scum motivated, given my attention towards Pleonast.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 17, 2012 22:02:34 GMT -5
Patricia - 1 vote (Meeko)
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Post by Rich Beckman on Jun 17, 2012 23:29:55 GMT -5
<snip> Can someone better at math than me figure out if the night kills of last night imply a kill was blocked? Well, two were killed last night and one was killed the night before...so if a kill was blocked last night, then two kills were blocked the night before. Since two were killed last night, but only one the night before, it seems reasonable that someone was successfully protected the night before. |
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Post by LadyRogue-II on Jun 18, 2012 0:56:46 GMT -5
Vote PatriciaI just think your efforts against me are scum motivated, given my attention towards Pleonast. I thought the same thing. Patricia |
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Post by LadyRogue-II on Jun 18, 2012 0:57:47 GMT -5
That was supposed to read vote Patricia
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 18, 2012 9:03:57 GMT -5
Ok, I think it's worthwhile to take a look back at Pleo's "investigation" results. I know this isn't a complete list, but I think we've got some good data here: Oh, my updated results: N1: supemel is town. N2: dottiebob is town. Which means the new michelehunter is town, if my notes are correct. N3: - N4: jlrinmke is town. N5: jerelijah is town. Now, here's my internal argument: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- One of the reasons for scum to false-claim detective is to get some of their scumbuddies "cleared". Therefore, at least one scum is clearly going to be on this list. You don't know that. In a game this size, with as many town power roles as we can expect to have, it would be crazy for Pleo to think that he'd make it to the endgame without being found out.Still, he decided to go with this gambit, and if he didn't "clear" any of his scumbuddies, then the only purpose for the gambit would be to sow dissention. So? It looks like it worked pretty well, didn't it? If we *start* with the assumption that "there is at least one scum among those four", you know what that could mean? Four straight mislynches! Especially since, if we were to agree with your thinking, right now there's at least a 25% chance of finding scum. But every mislynch would make the odds even better! Why, after two mislynches, we'll be down to a 50-50 shot! And when we got that one wrong, well, we'll have *definitely* found scum then! Or not. It's a very dangerous supposition to make.Huh...never thought of it that way. Yes you did -- otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation. Don't make me go all "lynch all liars" on you.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, italicized me has an excellent point, but I'm still not convinced -- I think it might be worthwhile to at least take a strong look at who Pleo "cleared". I decided to go with the Mafia Rule of Threes, and look back at the third person he "cleared". If we assume he wouldn't immediately start naming his scumbuddies, It's as good a place as any to start. So then, a look at jlrinmke: --A Day One vote for Pleonast. (Scum) --A Day Two vote for mchlle71. (Town) --"Going to be away" posts. --A Night Two "confused newbie" post. --A Day Three vote (after my reveal) for Endhoot. (Scum) --A Day Five "confused newbie" post (with more content than anything she'd posted previously). --A Day Five vote for texcat. (Scum) --A Night Seven summation of her play so far. Includes the interesting line "Anyway, I don't think the strategy of voting off everyone Pleo confirmed is a good one, because at least one of us is town." --A Night Seven line to Archangel about newbie cuddling. My guess? Might be worth a vote, if no better suspect comes up. I have a lot of work to do today, but I'll try and take a look at the others on the list. If anyone else wants to take a crack at analyzing the others, be my guest. |
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Post by crys on Jun 18, 2012 9:59:38 GMT -5
Ok, I think it's worthwhile to take a look back at Pleo's "investigation" results. I know this isn't a complete list, but I think we've got some good data here: Oh, my updated results: N1: supemel is town. N2: dottiebob is town. Which means the new michelehunter is town, if my notes are correct. N3: - N4: jlrinmke is town. N5: jerelijah is town. Now, here's my internal argument: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- One of the reasons for scum to false-claim detective is to get some of their scumbuddies "cleared". Therefore, at least one scum is clearly going to be on this list. You don't know that. In a game this size, with as many town power roles as we can expect to have, it would be crazy for Pleo to think that he'd make it to the endgame without being found out.Still, he decided to go with this gambit, and if he didn't "clear" any of his scumbuddies, then the only purpose for the gambit would be to sow dissention. So? It looks like it worked pretty well, didn't it? If we *start* with the assumption that "there is at least one scum among those four", you know what that could mean? Four straight mislynches! Especially since, if we were to agree with your thinking, right now there's at least a 25% chance of finding scum. But every mislynch would make the odds even better! Why, after two mislynches, we'll be down to a 50-50 shot! And when we got that one wrong, well, we'll have *definitely* found scum then! Or not. It's a very dangerous supposition to make.Huh...never thought of it that way. Yes you did -- otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation. Don't make me go all "lynch all liars" on you.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, italicized me has an excellent point, but I'm still not convinced -- I think it might be worthwhile to at least take a strong look at who Pleo "cleared". I decided to go with the Mafia Rule of Threes, and look back at the third person he "cleared". If we assume he wouldn't immediately start naming his scumbuddies, It's as good a place as any to start. So then, a look at jlrinmke: --A Day One vote for Pleonast. (Scum) --A Day Two vote for mchlle71. (Town) --"Going to be away" posts. --A Night Two "confused newbie" post. --A Day Three vote (after my reveal) for Endhoot. (Scum) --A Day Five "confused newbie" post (with more content than anything she'd posted previously). --A Day Five vote for texcat. (Scum) --A Night Seven summation of her play so far. Includes the interesting line "Anyway, I don't think the strategy of voting off everyone Pleo confirmed is a good one, because at least one of us is town." --A Night Seven line to Archangel about newbie cuddling. My guess? Might be worth a vote, if no better suspect comes up. I have a lot of work to do today, but I'll try and take a look at the others on the list. If anyone else wants to take a crack at analyzing the others, be my guest. What you say really does make sense. Sent from my SCH-I405 using ProBoards |
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Post by wombat99 on Jun 18, 2012 10:22:28 GMT -5
Ok, I think it's worthwhile to take a look back at Pleo's "investigation" results. I know this isn't a complete list, but I think we've got some good data here: Oh, my updated results: N1: supemel is town. N2: dottiebob is town. Which means the new michelehunter is town, if my notes are correct. N3: - N4: jlrinmke is town. N5: jerelijah is town. You left off Inner Stickler from N6. What do you think of Archangel's argument that he's the scummiest of Pleo's targets? |
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 18, 2012 10:36:33 GMT -5
You left off Inner Stickler from N6. What do you think of Archangel's argument that he's the scummiest of Pleo's targets? My biggest problem with that was that by Night Six, Pleo had to have at the very least an inkling that it was all unraveling. That would be the worst time to start naming scumbuddies as "cleared". Which could then, of course, make it be considered the best time. |
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Post by Archangel on Jun 18, 2012 10:40:00 GMT -5
Hal's post convinces me it's worthwhile voting Inner Stickler.
Pleo "put in" a false claim very early in the game. Given the conditions that we knew we had doctors, detectives, masons and two unknown roles, he didn't specify what he "was." S/he couldn't claim mason under the circumstances because with real masons, s/he'd be found out easily.
Claiming a totally made-up role was dangerous under the circumstances too (because once the crazy townies and PFK were dead s/he'd be found out).
In fact, the SAFEST claim under the circumstances was doctor-- s/he could false claim doctor and say s/he was self-protecting, or picked any target to protect other than those who turned up dead, since we didn't and still don't know how many doctors we started out with.
So for Pleo to claim detective I have to believe s/he wanted to use it to "clear" a fellow scum. (The part of Hal's argument that gives me pause on this is that Pleo would appear so devious s/he may well have wanted us to waste days mislynching low-participation players, which would offer little to know info for the voting record.)
From this list, Inner Stickler is the only one who doesn't fit the pattern, and IMO is the most dangerous were he to be scum.
Vote Inner Stickler
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 18, 2012 10:49:33 GMT -5
Oh crap, I completely forgot about what went down on Day Five. jlrinmke moved the vote off of Pleo and on to Texcat -- the vote was down to two scum on the hotseat, and better to lynch the one who wasn't a fake detective! Plus, annem picked up on a very nice possible scum slip (color bleached): Due to my schedule, I have to vote now. I see texcat has 7 votes already, and pleonast is next in the vote count. I don't want to see a detective go (not sure if pleo really is one, but I'd rather not mislynch here). Vote texcat You'd 'rather not mislynch' Pleo, so you're voting for the current vote leader without any other explanation as to why they deserve it. What if that's a mislynch? As I said, I don't feel any of the vote leaders are particularly deserving of lynching today, so I'll Vote: jlrinmke I even voted for her, based on the "rather not mislynch" line, which I felt was a PIS scum slip. The only reason my vote came off of her was because it was pointed out she'd been "cleared" by Pleo. Since that vouching is now worth its weight in ostrich droppings, I'm bringing this one back... Vote jlrinmke |
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 18, 2012 11:03:28 GMT -5
3. gnarlycharlie
5. Suburban Plankton
8. CatinaSuit
9. Special Ed Archangel
11. Cathi
13. jlrinmke - "investigated" town by Pleonast
14. phoenixphyre
19. supermel- "investigated" town by Pleonast
21. dizzymrslizzy
22. crys
24. annetastic
25. sharon wombat99
27. Silver Jan- mason
28. Meeko
29. AmyKB
32. bec JustBeingGinger
33. adorasaurusrex Total Ulla
34. Inner Stickler
36. aleetha
37. susanmurphy
38. richbeckman
39. Patricia
40. cassipietz
42. amyliz421 guiri
43. jerelijah
45. melissashort mistde
47. Hal Briston- detective
48. dottiebob Michelehunter- "investigated" town by Pleonast
50. Roosh LadyRogue
51. Dyar Starrirain
56. Suits101
58. annette Paranoia
is this list of living players accurate?
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Post by wombat99 on Jun 18, 2012 11:04:00 GMT -5
Next on my list is Dizzy, she's been backing Pleo since the start of the game  , what are you referring to specifically? I don't understand why you say that dizzy was backing Pleo, in fact, she raised suspicions about him in a few places. (I've voted for dizzy twice, I'm not necessarily defending her, but to smudge with no evidence seems scummy). |
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 18, 2012 11:15:22 GMT -5
Hmph...going after my confirmeds now. Since I'm still here, I'm going to work under the assumption that A) we still have a doc, and B) that I'm protected. Until a doc turns up dead, I'll be keeping townie investigations (like last night's) under wraps for now. good idea. alternatively, you can investigate inactives and share results while we lynch active players. if scum NKs a confirmed town, it will be an inactive one. it's like what Pleo was "doing" but at least we can trust you. |
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Post by Archangel on Jun 18, 2012 11:27:19 GMT -5
Hmph...going after my confirmeds now. Since I'm still here, I'm going to work under the assumption that A) we still have a doc, and B) that I'm protected. Until a doc turns up dead, I'll be keeping townie investigations (like last night's) under wraps for now. good idea. alternatively, you can investigate inactives and share results while we lynch active players. if scum NKs a confirmed town, it will be an inactive one. it's like what Pleo was "doing" but at least we can trust you. What makes you think scum will be so gracious as to avoid NKing active confirmed town? (Which is what they did last night?) |
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Post by Archangel on Jun 18, 2012 11:31:22 GMT -5
Oh crap, I completely forgot about what went down on Day Five. jlrinmke moved the vote off of Pleo and on to Texcat -- the vote was down to two scum on the hotseat, and better to lynch the one who wasn't a fake detective! Plus, annem picked up on a very nice possible scum slip (color bleached): You'd 'rather not mislynch' Pleo, so you're voting for the current vote leader without any other explanation as to why they deserve it. What if that's a mislynch? As I said, I don't feel any of the vote leaders are particularly deserving of lynching today, so I'll Vote: jlrinmke I even voted for her, based on the "rather not mislynch" line, which I felt was a PIS scum slip. The only reason my vote came off of her was because it was pointed out she'd been "cleared" by Pleo. Since that vouching is now worth its weight in ostrich droppings, I'm bringing this one back... Vote jlrinmkeHal, I see your point about jlrinmke's moved vote, but I don't see the point about the supposed scum slip? Especially since annem is dead scum? |
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 18, 2012 11:35:19 GMT -5
good idea. alternatively, you can investigate inactives and share results while we lynch active players. if scum NKs a confirmed town, it will be an inactive one. it's like what Pleo was "doing" but at least we can trust you. What makes you think scum will be so gracious as to avoid NKing active confirmed town? (Which is what they did last night?) there's only one left, Silver Jan. they get two kills per Night. the next step would be to take out the more experienced players. i'd rather they take out inactives. |
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Post by wombat99 on Jun 18, 2012 11:46:02 GMT -5
What makes you think scum will be so gracious as to avoid NKing active confirmed town? (Which is what they did last night?) there's only one left, Silver Jan. they get two kills per Night. the next step would be to take out the more experienced players. i'd rather they take out inactives. I don't understand this - if scum want to take out experienced Town, they will do so (they know who they are); what does it matter if that experienced player is "confirmed" in Town's eyes? |
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Post by Archangel on Jun 18, 2012 11:56:04 GMT -5
What makes you think scum will be so gracious as to avoid NKing active confirmed town? (Which is what they did last night?) there's only one left, Silver Jan. they get two kills per Night. the next step would be to take out the more experienced players. i'd rather they take out inactives. I understand what you mean now; I misread what you said. However, I think it's much better for town to have a block of "confirmed" actives whose motives we can trust re the voting record. A block of "confirmed" inactives isn't going to help us as much. |
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 18, 2012 12:06:59 GMT -5
Hal, I see your point about jlrinmke's moved vote, but I don't see the point about the supposed scum slip? Especially since annem is dead scum? Know what? I think I might've been reading into that too much. After rereading jlrinmke's post a dozen times just now, I have to concur -- it's really not a slip. In order for Perfect Information Syndrome to be in play here, jlrinmke would have had to have known that she was actively avoiding a mislynch, but you can't have a mislynch when both target choices are scum. However, I still think she's a decent lynch candidate. Now, bear in mind that everything I'm about to say is evidence from a conclusion (which is generally not a good idea), but I'm rolling with it for now: First, my previous Rule of Threes point. She was the third one "cleared" by Pleo. Second, the vote record -- And I'm aware that I'll be assigning motives here that are only accurate if she's actually scum: --Day One: A vote for Pleonast (Scum). Set up a little townie cred in case Pleo is taken out early. --Day Two: A vote for mchlle71 (Town). Ok, day two is good for sowing some seeds against townie players. --Day Three: A vote (after my reveal) for Endhoot (Scum). No-brainer -- I'd outed Endhoot, so voting elsewhere would've looked rather odd. --Day Five: A vote for texcat (Scum). As previously mentioned, it was going to be texcat or Pleo, so she made a move to keep the fake detective alive. All told, I'm comfortable with my vote. |
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jun 18, 2012 13:17:07 GMT -5
there's only one left, Silver Jan. they get two kills per Night. the next step would be to take out the more experienced players. i'd rather they take out inactives. I don't understand this - if scum want to take out experienced Town, they will do so (they know who they are); what does it matter if that experienced player is "confirmed" in Town's eyes? they will take out confirmed players first. if no confirmed Town is revealed toDay, they will likely take out the remaining mason and likely an experienced player and will continue to do so in the following Nights. there's only one left, Silver Jan. they get two kills per Night. the next step would be to take out the more experienced players. i'd rather they take out inactives. I understand what you mean now; I misread what you said. However, I think it's much better for town to have a block of "confirmed" actives whose motives we can trust re the voting record. A block of "confirmed" inactives isn't going to help us as much. true but if Hal reveals them, scum will have to choose between killing inactive confirmed players or allowing the number of places for them to hide to shrink. |
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Post by cathi on Jun 18, 2012 14:09:08 GMT -5
The votes seem to be more scattered today, in the absence of a "sure thing". So I'm wondering:
Is it better to vote WITH someone you think is Town? Since a consolidated vote has more power than a singleton vote?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jun 18, 2012 15:18:42 GMT -5
The votes seem to be more scattered today, in the absence of a "sure thing". So I'm wondering: Is it better to vote WITH someone you think is Town? Since a consolidated vote has more power than a singleton vote? It's better to vote FOR someone you think is Scum. If you vote WITH someone you think is Town then sure, you 'double' the vote, but what if the person you think is Town isn't? Or what if they are Town, but the person they're voting for is Town as well? Bottom line: You're responsible for your own vote. Voting for 'Player X' because 'Player Y' also voted for them is not a 'well justified' vote. |
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Post by annetastic on Jun 18, 2012 17:54:43 GMT -5
Putting my vote in now in case the Day ends early like last time
vote: jlrinmke
Based on Hals explanation although I still suspect Patricia too
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Jun 18, 2012 18:58:38 GMT -5
You know what the more I think about it the more MicheleHunter bothers me.
Something just doesn't sit right with me. She is on Pleo's "cleared" list so she's maybe/maybe not Town, but I'm leaning towards NOT. Her complete absolute lie smudge on me is ridiculous.
I'd like an explanation as to where she came up with her accusations.
Vote: Michelehunter
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Post by cathi on Jun 18, 2012 19:54:06 GMT -5
@suburban Plankton, thank you for the response.
I agree that "because s/he did it first" is a lame reason for a vote; I see the validity of multiple reasonings here today, and thought it would be better to "double" the vote ON someone who seems scummy AND WITH someone who seems Town...unless I'm missing something, it doesn't make sense to me to spread the vote unnecessarily.
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