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Post by autolycus on Jun 11, 2007 1:52:08 GMT -5
Although, you have Mad down in both categories erroneously. What's up with trying to make Mad look bad? Huh? Huh?? I want 'im in my belly! Yarrr, seriously though, only the second category should be erroneous. I be usin' Mal's list on page 11 with the updates from 'en until now. What's up with makin' ME look bad? Huh huh huh?!
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 11, 2007 3:28:01 GMT -5
Rules question! In MFII, going over 10 votes initiated a countdown IIRC. Does the same happen in this incarnation?Anyone else awake? I've already said toDay will go the distance, so if I changed that now, it would be unfair to people who thought they still had another 36 hours to chime in - even though toDay's vote looks like a foregone conclusion.
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Post by zuma on Jun 11, 2007 7:23:46 GMT -5
Et tu, Capy, Et tu? I suggest you all be very careful about what you are about to do. Actually, I encourage you all to do it. Once my role is revealed, it's going to be too late. vote: zuma
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 8:21:32 GMT -5
C'mon, zuma. That's bush league.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 11, 2007 8:35:20 GMT -5
Et tu, Capy, Et tu? I suggest you all be very careful about what you are about to do. Actually, I encourage you all to do it. Once my role is revealed, it's going to be too late. vote: zumaCan you explain why you lied about being Captain Steele? Are you still claiming that you are Captain Steele? If so, what is your explanation for the absense of a mark on your attacker? --FCOD
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 11, 2007 8:42:20 GMT -5
I suggest you all be very careful about what you are about to do. Actually, I encourage you all to do it. Once my role is revealed, it's going to be too late. Well that was about the least crewman-like post I've ever seen. zuma, what's up? If we are really going to harm ourselves by lynching you, shouldn't you tell us why? If you don't, why should we believe you're on our side? Are you denying you lied about being Capt Steele? If not, why'd you do it? If so, where are your marks? In what specific ways do you request us to be careful?
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 8:45:39 GMT -5
Et tu, Capy, Et tu? I suggest you all be very careful about what you are about to do. Actually, I encourage you all to do it. Once my role is revealed, it's going to be too late. vote: zuma Care to offer any explanation or just veiled dodginess? Oh, and were you gonna bother to quote the PMs like you said?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 8:45:42 GMT -5
And why the hell are you voting for yourself? I can conceive of no in-game reason why a player would want to do that. None.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 8:58:49 GMT -5
Important question, and I just want to say... becareful with where it leads. If they're as smart as us, it could also just as easily have been a ploy for us to lynch Idle, find out he's crew, lynch Zuma, find out he's pirate, then follow that trail and lynch NAF to find out he's pro-crew, giving them 2-1 (plus whatever night kills get pulled of). That said, as you imply, it could have also been the idea that enough distraction has occurred for us to forget about NAF OR that the trail seems "too obvious". Also, if there's one thing to be learned from M3, it's that the confessions of dying scum are about as useful as a three-legged dog, and as dangerous as a rabid one. That is, I think it's reason to inspect someone further, but it shouldn't be the main evidence. Of course, that all said, I'm inclined to suspect NAF anyway, because I already did before this fiasco. This just gives me a warm-fuzzy that that suspicion may have been right.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 9:03:57 GMT -5
And why the hell are you voting for yourself? I can conceive of no in-game reason why a player would want to do that. None. I think because he's scum, and he got caught red-handed. If he is, then he knows anything he's going to do will be heavily scrutinized for clues, especially where his final vote is. If he votes for ANYONE, he'd have to be careful, because he can't be sure how we'd interpret it, and he's just as likely to give someone we already suspect, that's actually pro-crew, some relief, or he may give some damning evidence to a fellow scum of his. Of course, he could have accomplished the same by simply not voting, or voting for someone where we'd just have a WTF factor (like on one of the officers). Either way, it only looks MORE scummy, unless he's trying to pull a move similar to what Idle was doing... but I thought that looked scummy too, so go figure.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 9:06:20 GMT -5
And since the only reason I was waiting out in switching my vote is apparently moot...
Unvote Idle Thoughts Vote Zuma
May God have mercy on your soul.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 11, 2007 9:13:00 GMT -5
I can't think of any reason to hold off voting. Even if zuma is somehow a crew, for whatever crazy reason (because anything can happen in this game), he's nobody I want on my team.
vote zuma
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 9:16:42 GMT -5
True. But then why not take that opportunity to sow chaos and discord by, say, naming four people he'd like to vote for, voting for one of them, and leaving us to try to puzzle out (or try to ignore) for the next several Days whether or not he included scum in that list and, if so, who?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 9:23:33 GMT -5
I agree with whoever said we should use this time to plan contingencies for the next Day. I'm going to take a close look at zuma's past posts, and then we can hopefully develop a rough strategy for who we should examine if zuma's a pirate, if he's Sam, if he's a crew member, or if he's (God forbid) Steele. (I don't think zuma's behavior tells us one damn thing about other posters if it turns out he's Dick or Gunn, although someone can correct me if I'm wrong, and he's surely not the Doctor.)
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 9:38:36 GMT -5
Et tu, Capy, Et tu? I suggest you all be very careful about what you are about to do. Actually, I encourage you all to do it. Once my role is revealed, it's going to be too late. vote: zumaHmm. Ok, we're supposed to think something complicated is being suggested here. Exegesis: "Et tu, Capy"--I assume he's just making me feel like slime for voting for him even though he saved my hide, or suggesting to the already suspicious that I have a pact with him. Being careful about what we're about to do. . . I can only read this as a suggestion that we're missing something. If he's scum, I really doubt he's trying to be helpful, so I see this as pure bluff. "Once my role is revealed". So. . . you're not Steele but another role? We know you're not the doctor.. . unless you're Ben Gunn you still need killin', and perhaps even then. Too late for whom? Do you have anything to add in your defense? The promised PMs? Anything at all? If you're crew your being unhelpful. If you're scum. . . well, you're doing exactly what cornered scum would do.
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 9:55:48 GMT -5
Ok, Having trouble imagining pirates going off all half-cocked, unless there's a really complex plan. If Zuma's any role, I suspect it's Sam or Ben, which helps explain the bizarro-land activity. Let's give him half a benefit of a doubt for a second (choo choo, imagination express again!): What might Zuma be implying?
Sam doesn't prevent a crew win (so perhaps he's suggesting that he's not the BEST person to kill) and only hurts the crew by his narcing.
Ben, if attacked, changes affiliation, and perhaps Zuma had a brain fart in terms of logic and predicting outcomes--meant to get targeted and change affiliation but didn't take into account the whole. . . death thing, or perhaps thought he'd get away with the Idle thing (in which case maybe by pointing at Idle he thought he was doing the crew good for some reason. . .). So he's technically pro-crew but gonna get killed from a misstep (which he made. . . why? Why claim Steele, which is verifiable? I guess that was the only possible crewish role to claim, and perhaps he skimmed the rules as we all did and didn't realize how it was verifiable?).
He'd better explain SOMEthing.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 11, 2007 9:59:22 GMT -5
Oh! And I know I'm posting like crazy right now, but I'm all giddy because I finally feel we've got some momentum and ship-camraderie here, but remember my main theory as to why zuma accused Idle - to take the heat off of NAF. Ok, I have only caught up to page 12. But I just want to say that this is the most ridiculous theory I have ever heard. If it was true and Idle is not a pirate and zuma said he was because I am a pirate and he was protecting me...we would both die right after Idle was lynched. I am sorry but the pirates are going to be smarter than that. Also, I was totally ready to handle my own heat, I really did believe that Idle was a pirate. This is an extremely surprising turn of events. Got more pages to read. Back with thoughts in a bit.
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 10:02:03 GMT -5
I really did believe that Idle was a pirate. This is an extremely surprising turn of events. You still might not be wrong. . . the revelation that Zuma's been lying doesn't logically necessitate Idle's exoneration, after all. As far as I'm concerned Idle's now just an unknown again, who doesn't need lynching today.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 11, 2007 10:16:01 GMT -5
Ok, first:
unvote Idle vote zuma
lynch all liars and all that.
Second: I don't know if Idle is scum or not at this point. When I put together my post he seemed like the most scummy player on the deck to me. So follow me here, would it not be possible that this is a sacrifice play on the part of zuma and Idle? I am not saying it is, but you people are treating Idle like he is confirmed crew. Is it not possible that they cooked up this scheme over the night to create a confirmed town situation? It explains why Idle fairly well. Also, Idle's responses to the accusations are were not exactly pro town. His volume and unwillingness to die as a vanilla townie just don't ring like pro town play.
But I could be wrong. The whole zuma thing has thrown me for a bit of a loop. Maybe I am over thinking, but the question of why zuma decided to back me up in my case against Idle bugs the hell out of me.
I am just saying, the pirates are as smart as we are, we need to start trying to think like them and stop looking for the stupidly obvious solutions to problems.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 10:20:30 GMT -5
NAF:
How are we doing this? Nobody is presumptively clearing Idle. Quite the opposite, if anything. (See the post, y'know, directly above yours.)
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 11, 2007 10:37:03 GMT -5
Touche, Gad.
In my reading of the whole thread in a single shot the feeling I got was that many, not all, of the crew were clearing Idle. Maybe not in words, but in tone. The post above mine was written while I was composing my post (which took a while since I am working while I do this, and Monday's are always kinda busy here). I didn't see capy's post before I wrote mine.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 11, 2007 10:39:00 GMT -5
I for one am not clearing Idle.
Until we figure out what is going on here, I think we're all suspects. But I'm looking most closely at those directly implicated in this mess:
zuma Idle Thoughts NAF FCOD and ArizonaTeach (who were quite, quite certain that Idle is a pirate, back when we believed zuma's role claim) MadTheSwine and Auto (who voted for zuma back when the rest of us believed his claim)
I am sure this is not a scum list (i.e. I am sure some folks on that list are crew who have unfortunately found themselves playing into crew hands). But they each merit some scrutiny.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 11, 2007 10:42:06 GMT -5
Ok, I have only caught up to page 12. But I just want to say that this is the most ridiculous theory I have ever heard. If it was true and Idle is not a pirate and zuma said he was because I am a pirate and he was protecting me...we would both die right after Idle was lynched. I doubt it's the most ridiculous theory you've ever heard...! But can you deny that his pointing at Idle drew every ounce of suspicion away for you for two days?
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 11, 2007 10:50:39 GMT -5
I for one am not clearing Idle. Until we figure out what is going on here, I think we're all suspects. But I'm looking most closely at those directly implicated in this mess: zuma Idle Thoughts NAF FCOD and ArizonaTeach (who were quite, quite certain that Idle is a pirate, back when we believed zuma's role claim) MadTheSwine and Auto (who voted for zuma back when the rest of us believed his claim) I am sure this is not a scum list (i.e. I am sure some folks on that list are crew who have unfortunately found themselves playing into crew hands). But they each merit some scrutiny. OK, I had resolved to get through the rest of this game without getting unduly upset at posts, but come on. Is there anyone else who doesn't understand the situation that we have to spend more time on it? We were quite, quite certain that zuma had been attacked and protected by the Doctor. In fact, it's a damn good thing we felt confident about that information, or the other pieces would not have fallen into place. Anyone else out there seriously believe that FCOD and I are scum? Seriously? I will say this, anyone who follows that line of thought is absolutely guilty of wasting the crew's time and energy.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 11, 2007 10:55:26 GMT -5
Ok, I have only caught up to page 12. But I just want to say that this is the most ridiculous theory I have ever heard. If it was true and Idle is not a pirate and zuma said he was because I am a pirate and he was protecting me...we would both die right after Idle was lynched. I doubt it's the most ridiculous theory you've ever heard...! But can you deny that his pointing at Idle drew every ounce of suspicion away for you for two days? Nope no denying. And if he hadn't I would have been in no position to defend myself until today either, I just had no time this weekend to post. Idle could have just steamrolled me into being lynched since that seems to be what he was intent on doing. I knew that was a chance when I posted my case against Idle, but frankly I thought the case was good enough that I wouldn't have to come and defend myself. But it doesn't really matter to me if I get lynched or not. Like I said before, my strategy is to play every day as if I am going to get night killed, and I really believed that I had found scum. I wasn't not going to post my info just because I was going to be absent for over half of the Day. Think about it AZ, if YOU were a pirate, would you ever suggest something so bluntly obvious to your team mates? I watched the mafia in M2 run circles around the town because the town kept thinking that the scum were that stupid. If we keep underestimating the scum this way we are going to lose.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 11, 2007 10:56:10 GMT -5
Et tu, Capy, Et tu? I suggest you all be very careful about what you are about to do. Actually, I encourage you all to do it. Once my role is revealed, it's going to be too late. And now to address this. Yeah, pathetic. Too bad, he's not even going to try to bluff anymore. I was looking forward to seeing what he would come up with. At this point, all he wants to do is put a wrench in things. Either he's trying to throw suspicion at capy or he's trying to throw suspicion off her by throwing suspicion at her. It doesn't matter. He's trying to be cryptic so we'll waste time. Yeah, it'll be "too late" in the sense that the Day will be over. I think it's definitely time to discuss two things: 1) If Ben is activated, who do we suggest he attacks? 2) Since it's likely we'll lose thoughtful players tonight, we should start talking about the next Day and who should be lynched.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 11:00:19 GMT -5
Okay, so, zuma's posts:
Positive ArizonaTeach (I.410 (uv)) capybara (II.89, II.222, II.230, III.86, III.257) CaerieD/Hal (I.254) FlyingCowOfDoom (III.86) NAF1138 (I.254) Pleonast (I.254, III.65, III.257) tirial (III.151)
Neutral ArizonaTeach (II.36, III.64, III.125, III.145, III.151, III.257, IV.66, IV.180) Autolycus (II.230) CaerieD/Hal Briston (III.201 (uv), III.205 (v), III.208 (uv)) capybara (I.254, I.421, II.231, IV.51, IV.184, IV.362) FlyingCowOfDoom (III.145, III.257, IV.180) hockeymonkey (III.205) Idle Thoughts (III.205, III.211, IV.58, IV.178) Kyrie Eleison (III.4) NAF1138 (III.211, IV.36) Pleonast (III.125) storyteller0910 (II.222, III.4)
Negative ArizonaTeach (I.254 (v), II.37 (v), II.222, II.223 (uv), III.86) Autolycus (I.428, II.222, IV.162, IV.180) CaerieD/Hal (III.86, III.151 (v)) Idle Thoughts (III.86, III.252 (v), III.257, IV.36, IV.180, IV.184 (v), IV.223, IV.224) mhaye (II.223 (v), II.230, II.512) storyteller0910 (II.225) tirial (III.65)
A summary of these mentions in my next post.
Some thoughts:
(A)
First, an interesting quote by zuma in Reply #36 of Day Two:
Completely wretched logic there, although nobody called him out about it at the time: Dick killing fluiddruid doesn't mean that Steele blocked the pirates, as there are at least two other plausible explanations (the Doctor and Gunn), not to mention that under the rules, if Steele blocks a kill he does not actually see the would-be killer. That could be a breadcrumb, but in light of his misunderstanding about Steele's role, it's more likely to just be smoke-blowing.
(B)
Also on Day Two (this is Reply #89):
Emphasis mine. That seems an awful lot like scum attempting to give subtle advice to scum right there. I've always maintained that capy has a strong town vibe, but if zuma turns up pirate, we might want to focus ourselves back in her direction.
(C)
Next, here's part of his lengthy response to storyteller0910 in Reply #222 of Day Two:
Upon a closer reading, the phrase "same side" is a somewhat strange one for a crewmember to use. It's far more explicable if zuma was a pirate and believed storyteller might be Sam or Dick, or if zuma was Sam and believed storyteller might be Dick or a pirate. As it turned out, of course, storyteller was crew, but zuma's phrasing still strikes me as odd.
(D)
Then again, maybe it's just that zuma phrases things strangely. From that same post:
storyteller had asked about zuma's vote for ArizonaTeach:
In his response, zuma dodges the question and completely declines to mention my name, which I find really weird for some reason:
I dunno, and I have no idea why he would duck the question like that. Like I said, maybe he just doesn't word things in an easily comprehensible manner. Of course, he then goes on to say (in response to a different question from storyteller) that "capy talks too much to be a pirate." And if talking too much is one of his criteria, I certainly fit within that mold as well, so I guess he just didn't feel the need to actually, y'know, be responsive to storyteller's previous pairing of ArizonaTeach and me.
(E)
From early on in Day Three, something interesting. In Reply #65, zuma votes for tirial despite never having previously mentioned her (or her predecessor, Cookies). In addition, zuma expresses strong (and, as he admits, essentially unfounded) trust in Pleonast:
Just another thing that jumps out at me as weird. Something to consider is that if zuma is Sam, he's getting new information every night as he investigates another crewmember. One thing to look for, then, might be whether zuma appears to change course on somebody or whether he starts mentioning someone, positively or negatively, seemingly out of the blue. In this instance, zuma had already mentioned Pleonast as feeling like crew way back on Day One, but this strong resurfacing of that sentiment is fairly odd, and might mean a slightly closer look at Pleonast or a slight anti-FOS at tirial. Meanwhile, one example of reversed feelings is zuma going from trusting CaerieD/Hal in I.254 to saying that they look very scummy in III.86. This post also marks the first time that zuma mentions Idle Thoughts in any capacity (he says Idle is scummy for questioning the claims of ArizonaTeach and FCOD).
(F)
He claims in III.125 to have watched ArizonaTeach on Night One and Pleonast on Night Two in his capacity as Steele.
(G)
zuma is involved with NAF in that weird "let's make simulposts when trying to force a tie so that we each vote and unvote several times in comical fashion" exchange at the end of Day Three (Reply #s 201, 205, 206, 208, 211). He also accidentally mistakes NAF for Idle in III.205, which is strange (although the two do have fairly similar posting styles).
(H)
At the end of Day Three, zuma states (in his supposed role as Steele) that there are seven or eight players on his potential "watch list," including ArizonaTeach, FCOD, Pleonast, and possibly capybara. He doesn't mention possibly exercising his block power, and he apparently (according to his own narrative) ended up watching himself instead. Of course, now we know that this latter thing is a lie.
(I)
One more really weird post. During Day Four, after accusing Idle of attacking him (but before voting for Idle, zuma made the following post in IV.178:
This is utterly perplexing to me, and seems to completely shred any semblance of pretense that zuma was telling the truth when he claimed to have been attacked by Idle. Specifically, if Idle truly had attacked him, then obviously Idle was scum of some kind (in light of zuma's claim to be Steele, it would make no sense for Idle-as-Ben-Gunn to attempt a nightkill on him). So yeah, duh, Idle would then be trying to out the Doctor, if that were the case. I'm not sure why zuma sounds so surprised by this, as if the two of them were on the same side and Idle was behaving intemperately.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 11:08:16 GMT -5
zuma's posting summary[/u]
Positive 5 -- capybara (Days Two and Three) 3 -- Pleonast (Days One and Three) 1 -- ArizonaTeach (Day One) 1 -- CaerieD/Hal (Day One) 1 -- FlyingCowOfDoom (Day Three) 1 -- NAF1138 (Day One) 1 -- tirial (Day Three)
Neutral 8 -- ArizonaTeach (Days Two, Three, and Four) 6 -- capybara (Days One, Two, and Four) 4 -- Idle Thoughts (Days Three and Four) 3 -- CaerieD/Hal Briston (Day Three) 3 -- FlyingCowOfDoom (Days Three and Four) 2 -- NAF1138 (Days Three and Four) 2 -- storyteller0910 (Days Two and Three) 1 -- Autolycus (Day Two) 1 -- hockeymonkey (Day Three) 1 -- Kyrie Eleison (Day Three) 1 -- Pleonast (Day Three)
Negative 8 -- Idle Thoughts (Days Three and Four) 5 -- ArizonaTeach (Days One, Two, and Three) 4 -- Autolycus (Days One, Two, and Four) 3 -- mhaye (Day Two) 2 -- CaerieD/Hal (Day Three) 1 -- storyteller0910 (Day Two) 1 -- tirial (Day Two)
I forgot to note on my earlier chart that the negative (and only!) mention of tirial by zuma on Day Three involved a vote as well.
Any thoughts?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 11:14:38 GMT -5
ArizonaTeach:
(1) No idea. Someone he thinks is likely to be scum.
(2) I don't know if I agree with this. To my mind, anybody we put on the "might possibly be lynched" list right now will, if they aren't scum, go untargeted toNight, as the pirates will tend to forego hitting people that they think they might be able to get the town to lynch---I've learned this from watching the deliberations in Mafia III. I don't know how helpful it would be to get a head start, given that.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 11, 2007 11:22:32 GMT -5
Anyone else out there seriously believe that FCOD and I are scum? Seriously? I will say this, anyone who follows that line of thought is absolutely guilty of wasting the crew's time and energy. Please. I clearly said that I do not believe that everyone on that list is scum, so it's a bit disingenuous to say "anyone ELSE seriously believe this?" when nobody has said that they do in the first place. You two used very strong language to demonstrate your certainty that Idle Thoughts is a pirate. You seem to have information that I don't have, which is fine, but remember that I no longer have strong evidence that he is. So if it turns out that he's not a pirate, you will have some explaining to do. And since nothing is certain any more, this is a possibility I wanted to note now before the next bomb drops.
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