Day Four

[Malacandra]

A vile night, with a storm brewing up and canvas steadily shortened until the Hispaniola is riding it out under trysail and spitfire. There'll be no dawn under such a sky, but gradually night yields to day and all hands look about them to see who's missing.

To the general surprise of the whole company, the ship has come through the night with no further losses.

It is Day Four. You have just shy of 96 hours - 9pm my time on Tuesday 12th June, to be followed if necessary by two hours of extra time and then an appeal to Dame Chance if the jury's still hung.

[NAF1138]

WOOHOO no deaths!

[Mad The Swine]

Wow!

[Gadarene]

Nice.

[Hal Briston]

Nyah nyah! Nyah nyah! Loser scum! Loser scum!

<koff>

Well all right! Let's ride this little wave of good fortune and string us up a no-goodnick, shall we?

[cowgirl]

That's great! Thank you, whoever you are.

I can't wait to figure out what happened.

I will open the discussion as I have been composing posts.

Random thoughts:

First, I haven't the slightest idea what to think about anything. This game feels so much like M2: power roles look like scum; paranoid or excited townies also look like scum; and our prime suspects are almost always crew, these days.

Also it struck me that every "scum tell" I can think of has also been displayed by crewmates, usually me. I know I am crew, but I acknowledge I have been playing scummily (and poorly). Overall I feel like the most effective scum will be playing something like me - analysis, not much aggression, maybe lurking a bit too much, etc.

If I'm thinking like a pirate, I'm thinking I will be helpful, but not too helpful. (I know scum can be "too helpful" but there's no way I'll be able to figure that out at this point, so I'm ruling it out for the moment.) So I'm going to assume (for this line of reasoning only) that none of the high vote-getters from the last few days are scum. So I am directing my attention away from hockeymonkey or capybara (as well as the various and sundry role-claimers) for those reasons.

Nothing original here, I know, but I'm letting you know my reasoning.

In my opinion the person who has been most exhibiting these scum tells" (i.e. posting like me; and being helpful but not aggressive), is panamajack. I feel exactly the same way towards him as I did towards storyteller in M2, namely, that he is sensible and saying the exact same things that I am thinking of. (Yes, I am aware of the absurdity of that line of reasoning. But I find myself agreeing with scum so often that I can't help but be suspicious of it when I see it ...)

More in a bit.

[Malacandra]

Note: Checking my diary, I may be late into the thread on Tuesday night. The 9pm cut-off still applies even if I have to check post timestamps retrospectively.

[NAF1138]

Welcome back cowgirl. Where ya been? You don't call, you don't write...we were worried sick! ;D


I will say that you are right about one thing. Everyone will exhibit a scum tell at some point in time. Look at the forbidden thread for M2 if you need proof of this. So a single scum tell here or there will no longer help us at this point. We need to look for townie tells to clear the innocent and we need to start finding the preponderance of evidence that will sink the pirates. We have a lot of info to work with at this point and it is time we start using it.

That being said, I finally think I have hit upon a theory that might have panned out. I am going to go double check myself and make sure I have all the facts straight before I post it though.

[Gadarene]

Okay, some quick thoughts before I leave work. Here are the possibilities for what happened last night; if I've left something out, let me know.

(1) The pirates and Dick targeted the same player (most likely zuma). The Doctor and Steele both blocked.

(2) The pirates and Dick targeted the same player (most likely zuma). The Doctor blocked, and Dick's power failed. Steele either did or did not witness the attack.

(3) The pirates and Dick targeted the same player (most likely zuma). The Doctor or Steele (but not both) blocked, Steele either did or did not witness the attack (assuming the Doctor blocked), and the targeted player was Ben Gunn, who is now activated.

(4) The pirates and Dick targeted separate people (say, target A and target B). The Doctor blocked A and Steele blocked B.

(5) The pirates and Dick targeted separate people. The Doctor or Steele (but not both) blocked A, Dick's power failed, and Steele either did or did not witness the attack (assuming the Doctor blocked).

(6) The pirates and Dick targeted separate people. The Doctor and/or Steele blocked A, B was Ben Gunn (who is now activated), and Steele either did or did not witness the attack (assuming he did not block).

(7) The pirates and Dick targeted separate people. A was Ben Gunn (who is now activated), Dick's power failed, and Steele either did or did not witness the attack.

So my off-the-cuff conclusions are these: (a) it's now very possible that Ben Gunn has been activated, in which case we might well have three killings on Night Four; (b) if the Doctor did successfully block an attempt, that person cannot be protected by the Doctor tonight, and (probably) should be protected by Steele; (c) if zuma is Steele, he should tell us what he saw last night, if anything; and (d) if someone else is Steele, they should keep quiet about it even if they did see anything (or at least they should be more circumspect in breadcrumbing). Personally, I think at least one, and possibly both, of the baddie camp went after zuma, rightly or wrongly thinking him to be Steele.

Glarg. ...I've got another conclusion or two along those lines, but I feel constrained because they highlight potential strategy that I don't think the scum should be privy to, if they haven't figured it out themselves. How do people usually handle this?

I don't know. Those are the scenarios as I see them. Time to figure out if we know anything more than we did yesterDay. zuma, feel free to chime in if you witnessed anything (oh, and I forgot --- don't say who, if anyone, you protected!).

[Hockey Monkey!]

Woweeeee, no kills? Fantastic! I won't have to re-do any of this analysis! Good to see you back in it cowgirl.

Here's some raw data I compiled during the night for us to mull over. These are all of the votes for all three days so far. I have highlighted the dead in Lime Green, and the "Confirmed" in Orange. I will exclude my crew status from the confirmed list for the sake of clarity for everyone else. I did it this way so it would be easier to see where the crew have been voting, and hopefully tease out a pirate.

Day One Votes

ArizonaTeach (zuma) = 0
Auntbeast (Mad The Swine,hockeymonkey) = 0
Autolycus (Pleonast, Mad The Swine, Cookies, Gadarene, FCoD,Kyrie Eleison, Gadarene, CaerieD) = 0
Blaster Master (NAF1138, panamajack,capybara) = 1
CaerieD (NAF1138) = 0
capybara (FCoD, Blaster Master,fluiddruid, FCoD,MHaye,Mad The Swine) = 5
Cookies (Pleonast, Gadarene) = 1
cowgirl (Kyrie Eleison, fluiddruid) = 0
DiggitCamara (NAF1138) = 0
FCoD(NAF1138) = 0
hockeymonkey (Lakai) = 1
Idle Thoughts (capybara, hockeymonkey, cowgirl, capybara,capybara) = 1
KatiRoo(Pleonast,storyteller0910, panamajack,ArizonaTeach,Cookies,zuma,Gadarene,CaerieD,hockey monkey,NAF1138) = 9
Kyrie Eleison (Idle Thoughts, Lakai) = 1
Lakai (panamajack,Kyrie Eleison) = 1
Mad The Swine (KatiRoo,auntbeast) = 1
NAF1138 (Kyrie Eleison,ArizonaTeach) = 0
Pleonast (panamajack) = 0
storyteller0910(diggitcamara,auntbeast) = 2
zuma (Pleonast) = 0


Day Two Votes

MHaye 7 (Blaster Master, Gadarene, zuma, hockey monkey, Pleonast, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene,ArizonaTeach, hockey monkey, Kyrie Eleison)
hockeymonkey 5 (Lakai, NAF1138,FlyingCowOfDoom, Hal Briston, autolycus,diggitcamara,Idle Thoughts,ArizonaTeach)
FCoD 3 (hockeymonkey,storyteller0910, KyrieEleison, MHaye, cowgirl, diggitcamara, autolycus, MHaye, Gadarene, capybara)
NAF1138 2 (Auntbeast,tirial)
auntbeast 1 (Mad The Swine,Pleonast,MadTheSwine)
Lakai 1 (panamajack,hockeymonkey)
MadTheSwine 1 (capybara, capybara)
Cookies {now Tirial} 1 (Pleonast, NAF1138)
ArizonaTeach 0 (zuma)
Kyrie Eleison 0 (Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach)
panamajack 0 (hockeymonkey)
zuma 0 (storyteller0910MadTheSwine)



Day Three Votes

auntbeast 6 (Pleonast, hockeymonkey, Mad The Swine, panamajack, NAF1138, ArizonaTeach,Blaster Master)
hockeymonkey 4 (autolycus, FlyingCowOfDoom, panamajack, diggitcamara, auntbeast)
Hal Briston 2 (ArizonaTeach, Lakai, Mad The Swine, zuma, NAF1138)
Lakai 2 (Hal Briston, Gadarene)
autolycus 1 (capybara)
Idle Thoughts 1 (zuma)
NAF1138 1 (Idle Thoughts)
zuma 1 (Mad The Swine, auntbeast, Lakai, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach)
cowgirl 0 (Gadarene)
panamajack 0 (hockeymonkey, Blaster Master)
tirial 0 (zuma, NAF1138)



Something else that also hit me to look at was who has been on the deciding bandwagons, but just as important, who has not. *Bandwagons that did not conclude in a lynch are not represented here.

On every bandwagon – Pleonast (unvoted Katiroo – technically was on two), Hockey Monkey, and ArizonaTeach (mason)
On two of the three bandwagons – panamajack, Gadarene, Blaster Master, NAF1138, zuma (Capt. Steele?)
On one bandwagon – storyteller (dead), Cookies/tirial, CaerieD/Hal Briston, Kyrie Eleison (dead), Mad The Swine
Placed NO VOTES at all for the Lynched (not counting the dead) – Autolycus, capybara, cowgirl, diggitcamara, FCOD (mason), Idle Thoughts, and Lakai

I don’t think any self-respecting pirate would have been in on all three lynchings. In the next category, I think it might be feasible for a pirate to be in that bunch, but not so much as I am sure there is one (or three) in the One Bandwagon category. Certainly there is scum among those who have been staying off the bandwagons.

By my estimation, there are 6 or 7 scum in the game. Three pirate-aligned roles (if all are in play), Flint, and 2 or 3 vanilla pirates. We are down to basically a 50/50 shot on our lynches now, and the chances of Ben or Dick hitting a pirate have increased. Yay!

Because of what happened with Auntbeast, I am reluctant to pick someone to vote for right now or be a bandwagon driver. Certainly I wouldn’t think you guys would trust me to pick someone anyway. So I’m compiling the data and you can glean what you can from it. I’ll give you a list of who I think needs to be looked hard at, and you guys can go from there.

Autolycus – pfft, don’t know what info you can get from his posts, but he’s in the No Bandwagons category
Capybara – because after analyzing this data, it seems she has been very vocal, but purposely staying out of the spotlight with her votes.
Cowgirl – for not participating at all on Day Three. I want to hear what she has to say
Diggitcamara – sitting here writing this, I can’t remember much if anything of diggitcamara’s play-style, and that coupled with him not being on a single wagon bother’s me.
Idle Thoughts – mainly for ending up in this category
Lakai – same as Idle, although I’ve had some reservations about Lakai before and this doesn’t help. He is staying very low, and hasn’t really offered much analysis that I can remember
Tirial, Hal Briston, and MadTheSwine – all for being in the One Bandwagon category

I think the probability of our scum roles being mostly grouped in here is very high. I’m not discounting completely that there could be scum in the other categories, just that we should focus here first.

*After mulling on all this for a couple of hours, it occurred to me that there were more than 3 bandwagons in the game. If we can agree that a bandwagon consists of 4 or more votes, here is a bandwagon representation of the entire game so far:

Day One
Autolycus (Pleonast, Mad The Swine, Cookies, Gadarene, FCoD,Kyrie Eleison, Gadarene, CaerieD) = 0
capybara (FCoD, Blaster Master, fluiddruid, FCoD, MHaye, Mad The Swine) = 5
~KatiRoo (Pleonast storyteller0910, panamajack, ArizonaTeach, Cookies, zuma, Gadarene, CaerieD, hockey monkey, NAF1138) = 9

Day Two
~MHaye 7 (Blaster Master, Gadarene, zuma, hockey monkey, Pleonast, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, ArizonaTeach, hockey monkey, Kyrie Eleison)
hockeymonkey 5 (Lakai, NAF1138 FlyingCowOfDoom, Hal Briston, autolycus, diggitcamara, Idle Thoughts,ArizonaTeach)
FCoD 3 (hockeymonkey, storyteller0910, KyrieEleison, MHaye, cowgirl, diggitcamara, autolycus,MHaye, Gadarene, capybara)

Day Three
~auntbeast 6 (Pleonast, hockeymonkey, Mad The Swine, panamajack, NAF1138, ArizonaTeach, Blaster Master)
hockeymonkey 4 (autolycus, FlyingCowOfDoom, panamajack, diggitcamara, auntbeast)
Hal Briston 2 (ArizonaTeach, Lakai, Mad The Swine, zuma, NAF1138)
zuma 1 (Mad The Swine, auntbeast, Lakai, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach)




Thoughts? Discussion?

[NAF1138]

Nice HM. That list will be really helpful. I agree that the scum will probably be trying to avoid all bandwagons. And if they are on them at all they probably got on early.

[Gadarene]

Wow, thanks a ton, hockey monkey. Great idea!

*Bandwagons that did not conclude in a lynch are not represented here.

I definitely agree with this. Oh, wait...is that what you did in the latter half of your post?

[capybara]

Ok, to hop in and say that, in addition to two eager bandwagoneers quickly agreeing that pirates certainly won't want to bandwagon, here's a non-bandwagoneer to say that it's entirely possible to not jump in and drink the lynch-flavored Kool-aid at the drop of a hat AND be a plain old crewmember who suspects that we're stringing up innocents and can't get behind it. I was starting to suspect already yesterDay that someone would pop in with that suggestion and knew I'd stand out because of it.

I suspect pirates will mostly be in the middle-- moderation in all scummy things.

[Gadarene]

NAF:

I agree that the scum will probably be trying to avoid all bandwagons.

And I disagree with this. Not least because it would make them stand out like a sore thumb if anyone did this kind of analysis. It goes back to the "true random" versus "fake random" idea that Blaster Master articulated on Day Two: scum are going to be trying to look random, and that means ending up on some bandwagons (because avoiding all bandwagons is too notable). They probably won't be the driving force behind the bandwagons, thought, and they'll probably try to stay out of the spotlight if they do find themselves on a bandwagon.

[Gadarene]

Ok, to hop in and say that, in addition to two eager bandwagoneers quickly agreeing that pirates certainly won't want to bandwagon

;D Touché.

I suspect pirates will mostly be in the middle-- moderation in all scummy things.

I love this.

[Idle Thoughts]

Uh..I unvoted Zuma before the end of Day Three, Hockey.

[NAF1138]

gadarene said:

NAF:

I agree that the scum will probably be trying to avoid all bandwagons.

And I disagree with this. Not least because it would make them stand out like a sore thumb if anyone did this kind of analysis. It goes back to the "true random" versus "fake random" idea that Blaster Master articulated on Day Two: scum are going to be trying to look random, and that means ending up on some bandwagons (because avoiding all bandwagons is too notable). They probably won't be the driving force behind the bandwagons, thought, and they'll probably try to stay out of the spotlight if they do find themselves on a bandwagon.

This is more of less what I was thinking, but articulating poorly. In my experiance, scum try to avoid bandwagoning. But will end up on the occasional bandwagon, more or less by accident. But when they end up on one they usually try not to draw attention to themselves.

[Gadarene]

This is more of less what I was thinking

How can something be more of less?

[NAF1138]

Alright, here is what I got.

Remember how I said I spend most of yesterDay looking at posts, testing theories and having them not pan out? Well last Night I finally hit upon something.

I think that Idle Thoughts is scum.

Why?

Lots of reasons, and I will take you through them point by point in a minute.
Towards the middle of the Day yesterday I eventually started going through every players posts, chronologically in isolation and looking for inconsistencies and scum tells, as well as town tells (because all players give off a few scum tells, but scum rarely give off town tells.) And what I found was that Idle had almost no town tells, but lots of neutral comments. I found this to be strange, so I looked at his posts more carefully.

The very first thing I noticed was this:

In WWPP (side thread of Day 1) he says that he will play exactly the same way every time, no matter what his role.

In D3 P#246 he say’s “Do you honestly think I’d play the same way in every game?”

This seemed like a strange inconsistency. In P246 he was defending himself against an attack on him saying that his posting style was inconsistent.

In D1 post #257 storyteller shows some mild suspicion that Idle is scum, storyteller confirmed crew and a strong smart player, is now dead at the hands of scum.

I noticed that he accused me of spreading too much suspicion and playing too aggressively. It placed me on his suspicion list in D2 and got me a vote from him in D3. But Idle has been one of the most aggressively suspicious players in the game, and even admits as much in D1 P235. Also, most of the people he has pushed hard, have turned out to be crew upon death. In fact, except for MHaye he has pushed against almost every dead player so far. But not all of the people on his suspicion list are dead yet.

The biggest thing for me in this respect is what happened with cowgirl in D1 post #73. He subtly accuses her of being scum, then goes after Kyrie and fluid for voting for her based on his sly accusation. When Kyrie and I call him on it he adds me to his list, and rides Kyrie hard right up until Kyrie’s death.

He subtly “smudges” both HM and capy in D1 P 196 & 197.

He starts his accusations of HM based on her D1 P139 where she points out other legitimate inconsistencies in his play.

The this one is the clincher for me.

D2 P323 he says (in response to a question from AuntBeast) that the pirates were all PM’d the names of the other pirates at the beginning of the game. How does he know this? Mal hadn’t responded yet. Who but a pirate would know this information? He doesn’t say that they were probably PM’d this info, or that they were likely PM’d this info…it is a statement of fact.

This was a major slip, and I don’t know why no one caught it before.

Then add to that HM’s new data about the bandwagons, and I think we have a preponderance of evidence. None of it is too damning all on it’s own, but put it together and I say:

Vote Idle Thoughts

[NAF1138]

gadarene said:

This is more of less what I was thinking

How can something be more of less?

YEESH! More OR less.

No more posting while working on big thesis posts for me.

[cowgirl]

hockeymonkey said:

Thoughts? Discussion?

I think it is awesome. Also I bow in respect of your coding.

I am reminded of what someone pointed out earlier: that in groups like this, crewmates will be randomly distributed and pirates will not. It is very difficult to mimic "random" when you have knowledge and the others don't. So with this

On every bandwagon – Pleonast (unvoted Katiroo – technically was on two), Hockey Monkey, and ArizonaTeach (mason)
On two of the three bandwagons – panamajack, Gadarene, Blaster Master, NAF1138, zuma (Capt. Steele?)
On one bandwagon – storyteller (dead), Cookies/tirial, CaerieD/Hal Briston, Kyrie Eleison (dead), Mad The Swine
Placed NO VOTES at all for the Lynched (not counting the dead) – Autolycus, capybara, cowgirl, diggitcamara, FCOD (mason), Idle Thoughts, and Lakai

I don’t think any self-respecting pirate would have been in on all three lynchings. In the next category, I think it might be feasible for a pirate to be in that bunch, but not so much as I am sure there is one (or three) in the One Bandwagon category. Certainly there is scum among those who have been staying off the bandwagons.

I entirely agree. Also I think there will be more on the "no bandwagon" list than on two or more bandwagons. I am taking the liberty of doing the same analysis on your data on the rest of the bandwagon jumpers, be back in a bit.

[Parzival]

Hooray for no death!
Nice summary by Gadarene. I was wondering what last night's non-kill might tell us as well. Also, it seems to confirm zuma's role at least a little bit ( I thought of a super far-fetched theory where the Pirates held off, but being killed by Dick would be too much of a risk to take). Thinking about it now, Dick's presence seems to make Pirate false role-claims less likely.

Question for Malacandra (or anyone else who might now) : Since Steele's action has a chance of changing, does he actually know which action he performed last night? For example, if Steele Watches X, but it becomes a Block instead, is he aware of that or does he only know that X did not die last night?


cowgirl, I suppose the comparison to storyteller's Godfather might flatter me if I were a pirate, but then again a pirate who merely aped someone else's style wouldn't be a good one. I'm welcoming any analysis (since up to now it's mostly seemed like vague dislike of my style, which I can't really defend) - as I said yesterDay I may deserve as close a looking at as anyone. On the other hand, I don't want to be mistaken for a pirate and die by a lynch either.

For my own opinion - I don't like the idea of going after someone simply because you perceive them as having 'pirate style', especially when you say something like "that's how I would play as a Pirate" (which I got from BM too). Not only do we all play with different styles (Pirate or no), it's likely the case that there is no set 'pirate style' ^*. One of the key things I look for when analyzing style is inconsistency with their own views, not just inconsistency with my views - this is something I saw with both hockeymonkey and Lakai.

While I'm on that subject - hockeymonkey's posts and her other qualities make me less suspicious despite my misgivings. To my mind she's as likely as anyone to be scum (but then our numbers are approaching that anyway).

Lakai, however, is still twinging me, and I think I've realized some of the problem. He's merely stating his own reason for the vote, but doesn't seem to make an effort to convince others. It is, to me, something crew will naturally do - not only do they want to hear what others think about their theory, but they can assume the rest of the crew has the same information they do, and might logically reach the same conclusions. This does not mean that he gets automatically flipped over to 'pirate' by me, but I think I'm better able to put my finger on what was bothering me.

^*which, if true, neither absolves nor condemns me.

[capybara]

naf1138 said:

D2 P323 he says (in response to a question from AuntBeast) that the pirates were all PM’d the names of the other pirates at the beginning of the game. How does he know this? Mal hadn’t responded yet. Who but a pirate would know this information? He doesn’t say that they were probably PM’d this info, or that they were likely PM’d this info…it is a statement of fact.

Mmmm. Nah. I'm suspicious of him for various reasons going back to Day 1 myself, and he's been suspicious of me, but I have to say, this isn't a clincher. Anyone who'd played before would know that this is the typical way it's arranged (I assumed as much and I've never played-- extrapolating from the PM/E-mail that crewmembers got wouldn't the pirates' be similar but with a pirate list or something?). And he does pitch it as 'the way it usually works', not, "well, at 9:35 PM Mal e-mailed us . . I mean, teh pirates. . ." I know you're trying to make a case but this seems spinny, NAF.

[NAF1138]

capybara said:

naf1138 said:

D2 P323 he says (in response to a question from AuntBeast) that the pirates were all PM’d the names of the other pirates at the beginning of the game. How does he know this? Mal hadn’t responded yet. Who but a pirate would know this information? He doesn’t say that they were probably PM’d this info, or that they were likely PM’d this info…it is a statement of fact.

Mmmm. Nah. I'm suspicious of him for various reasons going back to Day 1 myself, and he's been suspicious of me, but I have to say, this isn't a clincher. Anyone who'd played before would know that this is the typical way it's arranged (I assumed as much and I've never played-- extrapolating from the PM/E-mail that crewmembers got wouldn't the pirates' be similar but with a pirate list or something?). And he does pitch it as 'the way it usually works', not, "well, at 9:35 PM Mal e-mailed us . . I mean, teh pirates. . ." I know you're trying to make a case but this seems spinny, NAF.

Ok so maybe I was a bit overzellous with the last one. Honestly that was the eureka moment for me and I was a bit excited, and I do believe that it was a scum slip.

But in truth, none of this is anything on its own. What do you think about the rest of my post?

[NAF1138]

Also, to expand on that point. Why does he think it was in the PM? I know when I PM'd people in my game I just told the scum that they were scum and to watch their email. I then emailed them a link to the scum boards.

And since Mal was using the same google group I was using for the scum boards (because we all started there and I helped him set it up), I know that it is in fact MUCH more convenient to do things this way. It's just the way that google is set up.

My point is, he is stating with certainty a very specific set of conditions, which may not be true. Only a scum would know that for certain.

[cowgirl]

Further to the analysis of bandwagon-jumpers …

I think that scum will be reluctant bandwagoneers: I think they would be more likely to get on them, and also more likely to get off them before they’re seen through. I expect if I was scum, and I was watching crewmates lynch another crewmate, that I would prefer to step back and let them do the dirty work. (In aim of testing that thesis, the numbers in brackets refer to the number of successful bandwagons, from HM’s post above). I don’t really know what to think about any of this, but I give you my data so you can judge for yourself.

I counted how many times each name appeared in hockeymonkey’s list, and removed all the “confirmed” or confirmed.

Name Total bandwagons (bandwagon lynches)
Gadarene 6 (2)
hockeymonkey 5 (3)
Mad The Swine 5 (1)
NAF1138 4 (2)
Pleonast 4 (3)
CaerieD/Hal Briston 4 (1)
Autolycus 3 (0)
Blaster Master 3 (2)
Diggitcamara 3 (0)
Lakai 3 (0)
panamajack 3 (2)
Cookies/Tirial 2 (1)
Idle Thoughts 2 (0)
Capybara 1 (0)
Cowgirl 1 (0)

So, for what it’s worth, the leaders in jumping on bandwagons but not being on bandwagons against crew are Mad the Swine and Hal Briston (they were only involved in one successful bandwagon, but participated in a lot more.) Of course, this could be the exact opposite of a scum tell, an action of someone who is being careful not to participate in scum-driven bandwagons against crew.

Auto, Lakai and diggitcamera all joined three bandwagons but didn’t lynch anyone.

[Henceforth I will use the term BW to refer to “bandwagon” because I’m sick of writing it out.]

I am also interested to see who the targets of the top BWs were.

Gadarene – Day 1: Auto (twice), KatiRoo; Day 2: MHaye (twice), FCOD (Day 2)
hockeymonkey – Day 1: KatiRoo; Day 2: MHaye (twice), FCOD; Day 3: Auntbeast
Mad the Swine – Day 1: Auto, capybara; Day 3: auntbeast, Hal Briston, zuma

This looks a bit scummy for hockeymonkey (as she has BWed only “crew,” so far). Only 2 of 5 of Mad’s targets are “crew.”

I'll keep thinking. Not nearly ready to vote or even FOS anyone yet.

[NAF1138]

naf1138 said:

Also, to expand on that point. Why does he think it was in the PM? I know when I PM'd people in my game I just told the scum that they were scum and to watch their email. I then emailed them a link to the scum boards.

And since Mal was using the same google group I was using for the scum boards (because we all started there and I helped him set it up), I know that it is in fact MUCH more convenient to do things this way. It's just the way that google is set up.

My point is, he is stating with certainty a very specific set of conditions, which may not be true. Only a scum would know that for certain.

Actually, now that I am thinking about it, I am not 100% certain that I didn't put all the scums names in the PM. I know I did for the masons because I had to. And I remember what a huge pain in the ass it was to have to alter the character description. Each time. FCoD feel free to correct me on this if you remember.

[capybara]

naf1138 said:

But in truth, none of this is anything on its own. What do you think about the rest of my post?

I'm going to have another look at his posts over the next day or so. I was all over him on Day One but became less certain over time and others started to look scummier. Real Life calls right now, though.

[NAF1138]

And out comes my OCD.

I found the doc that has the role descriptions I put out for M2. This is what I put in that description.

Mafia Confimation:
Congratulations you just got made! Yes, you are in the Mafia and you couldn't be more proud, only one problem those pesky townsfolk are trying to snuff you and your brethren out. You meet at your secret clubhouse every night to discuss how to "handle" the problem. And if someone needs to get killed, hey that’s life.

Listen to your Godfather if there are any disagreements, he will make the final decision.

Each night you get one vote, but you may change it as often as you like until the deadline. Remember you only have 48 hours to decide who to kill, or if you would rather not kill anyone.

During the day you are pass yourself off as a Citizen and have one for to use towards a lynch. Again, you can change your mind as often as you like up until the deadline.

You will receive an email with an invite to the mafia google group before the night starts.

Ok, now I am going to let this one drop.

Sorry, I just had a redbull.

[Gadarene]

Fun with juxtaposition.

panamajack:

Lakai, however, is still twinging me, and I think I've realized some of the problem. He's merely stating his own reason for the vote, but doesn't seem to make an effort to convince others. It is, to me, something crew will naturally do - not only do they want to hear what others think about their theory, but they can assume the rest of the crew has the same information they do, and might logically reach the same conclusions.

NAF, mere minutes later:

But in truth, none of this is anything on its own. What do you think about the rest of my post?

Heh. ;D