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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 11, 2007 11:25:14 GMT -5
(2) I don't know if I agree with this. To my mind, anybody we put on the "might possibly be lynched" list right now will, if they aren't scum, go untargeted toNight, as the pirates will tend to forego hitting people that they think they might be able to get the town to lynch---I've learned this from watching the deliberations in Mafia III. I don't know how helpful it would be to get a head start, given that. Seriously, Gad? By this reasoning we should never talk about anything during the day. I will agree that we shouldn't make any decisions on who to lynch in advance, but the more we talk the better off the town is. We have lots of day left, and zuma is going to go down today for lying. Why not start talking about tomorrow?
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 11, 2007 11:29:40 GMT -5
Two things:
Idle Thoughts is far from cleared in my eyes. I could see the pirates using this situation to install Idle as "trusted". I don't think that's what happened, but it doesn't mean I trust Idle one bit.
Anyone that is still suspicious of myself and AZTeach needs to start paying more attention. At this point, we're verified. If we were lying, a "real" officer would have said something by now.
--FCOD
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 11:32:29 GMT -5
This is what I'm saying. We can talk all we want about contingencies, but I think it's somewhat counterproductive to draw up a list of possible lynches for tomorrow, when all we're doing is allowing the pirates to limit their own targets with the knowledge of who we do and don't suspect.
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 11, 2007 11:41:17 GMT -5
Well... after zuma's cryptic post I'll join the hangin' mob:
vote zuma
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 12:05:11 GMT -5
This is what I'm saying. We can talk all we want about contingencies, but I think it's somewhat counterproductive to draw up a list of possible lynches for tomorrow, when all we're doing is allowing the pirates to limit their own targets with the knowledge of who we do and don't suspect. If the information isn't there explicitly, it's there implicitly. That is, it's clear that NAF has some suspicion, so I'd be surprised if he get's night killed by the pirates (though, DD may decide to target him knowing he almost definitely won't be doc protected). Really, reitterating my point, the pirates have as much information as a vanilla crewman, plus their own special knowledge, and there's more than one of them. How does leaving things like "hmm... NAF looks suspicious" going to hurt the town at all, when we KNOW the pirates will come to the same conclusion?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 12:08:31 GMT -5
That's fair. I guess I'm not completely comfortable with the idea of wrapping all the information up and putting a nice little bow around it for them, but I can see what you mean.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 12:11:57 GMT -5
Et tu, Capy, Et tu? I suggest you all be very careful about what you are about to do. Actually, I encourage you all to do it. Once my role is revealed, it's going to be too late. vote: zumaHmm. Ok, we're supposed to think something complicated is being suggested here. Exegesis: "Et tu, Capy"--I assume he's just making me feel like slime for voting for him even though he saved my hide, or suggesting to the already suspicious that I have a pact with him. Being careful about what we're about to do. . . I can only read this as a suggestion that we're missing something. If he's scum, I really doubt he's trying to be helpful, so I see this as pure bluff. "Once my role is revealed". So. . . you're not Steele but another role? We know you're not the doctor.. . unless you're Ben Gunn you still need killin', and perhaps even then. Too late for whom? Do you have anything to add in your defense? The promised PMs? Anything at all? If you're crew your being unhelpful. If you're scum. . . well, you're doing exactly what cornered scum would do. I think he's trying to imply that he's Ben Gunn. But that wouldn't make any sense, he would have been better off claiming vanilla crewman, or hell, even Ben Gunn. Obviously, if he's pro-crew, he'd know that a false claim will eventually get figured out, and that will result in an IMMEDIATE lynching, especially with this kind of false claim. Bottom line, even if he IS Ben Gunn and we WERE to let him survive for now, the pirates would never target him, and we'd never know. But obviously, he CAN'T be Ben Gunn, because he wouldn't have needed to have been rescued by the doctor. And he's obviously not the doctor, because the officers wouldn't be voting for him. That means he's either a vanilla crew and pulled a Winston, or he's a pirate (or Dick, but that's slim because he'd have needed to have been blocked by Steele, or Sam, but I'd expect him to be trying to get information out to the pirates).
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 11, 2007 12:15:11 GMT -5
UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT Idle Thoughts - 2 - NAF1138, capybara, Pleonast, FCOD, MadTheSwine, ArizonaTeach, Hal Briston, Hockey Monkey, capybara, panamajack, zuma, Blaster Master, tirialNAF1138 - 0 - Idle Thoughtszuma - 15 - Idle Thoughts, Autolycus, MadTheSwine, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, FCOD, capybara, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey, panamajack, tirial, zuma*, Blaster Master, cowgirl, NAF1138, diggitcamara Autolycus - 0 - Pleonast* zuma did not unvote Idle Thoughts, so I don't think his vote for himself counts.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 12:16:11 GMT -5
Blaster Master:
Question: if zuma was Ben Gunn, and the pirates targeted him and the Doctor blocked, would the Doctor know that his protection was superfluous? I don't think this is conclusively resolved in Mal's rules and rule clarifications, and if the answer is no, then we can't rule out zuma being Ben Gunn after all.
Although I agree with you that it doesn't make much difference.
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Post by ArizonaTeach on Jun 11, 2007 12:18:50 GMT -5
You two used very strong language to demonstrate your certainty that Idle Thoughts is a pirate. You seem to have information that I don't have, which is fine, but remember that I no longer have strong evidence that he is. So if it turns out that he's not a pirate, you will have some explaining to do. I don't know how many times this has to be explained, because it's already been laid out several times, and I'm not going to do it again because the only reason I think someone wants to revist it is to get more information on the Doctor. So, that's that.
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 12:19:34 GMT -5
That's fair. I guess I'm not completely comfortable with the idea of wrapping all the information up and putting a nice little bow around it for them, but I can see what you mean. Well, I don't think we should go "hey, pirates, don't kill NAF if he's crew, we'll do it for you." But I DO think the "I have some suspicions, but I can't share them because it might help the pirates." is exponentially worse. Either way, it's still entirely possible that those suspicions will change depending on the night anyway. Basically, what I've learned from the previous games is that having no additional information, that we MUST assume that anything a vanilla crewman can figure out, so can the pirates, but not necessarily such that every other crewman can figure it out (tunnel vision, or a different perspective... etc.). OTOH, it MAY not be this case for times when we're sure the pirates are very low in number... though, that's obviously not the case here since we haven't killed any yet.
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 11, 2007 12:23:24 GMT -5
Blaster Master:Question: if zuma was Ben Gunn, and the pirates targeted him and the Doctor blocked, would the Doctor know that his protection was superfluous? I don't think this is conclusively resolved in Mal's rules and rule clarifications, and if the answer is no, then we can't rule out zuma being Ben Gunn after all. Although I agree with you that it doesn't make much difference. To clarify, my understanding is that the doctor knows when his power is used, but for Ben Gunn, he wouldn't be mortally wounded (otherwise, how could he be activated), so I'm operating under the assumption that since the doctor wouldn't be needed, the doctor also simply would have thought his protection was unneeded... Unless it's some kind of two night kill attempt, and the first kill activated him, and the second mortally wounded him and the doctor saved him from that, which actually could also explain the no-kill.... But I see that as a highly unlikely scenario, so...
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 12:35:07 GMT -5
All right. Well...does anyone have any comments about zuma's posting history, as I've outlined it? What's the best way to go from here, since toDay is a foregone conclusion, zuma seems unlikely to provide any further comment whatsoever, and we've got another 24 hours or so to kill?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 12:35:27 GMT -5
...Does my title change now?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 12:35:45 GMT -5
Darn.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 11, 2007 12:41:47 GMT -5
Well, I don't think we should go "hey, pirates, don't kill NAF if he's crew, we'll do it for you." But I DO think the "I have some suspicions, but I can't share them because it might help the pirates." is exponentially worse. Either way, it's still entirely possible that those suspicions will change depending on the night anyway. Right. The more we talk the better off we are. The only thing we should hold back are things we think will activly help the pirates (such as trying to figure out who the Doc is). BM I couldn't follow this paragraph at all. Sorry. Mind restating?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 12:44:02 GMT -5
The fewer pirates there are, the less likely they are to benefit from being able to strategize together at night.
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 12:44:53 GMT -5
All right. Well...does anyone have any comments about zuma's posting history, as I've outlined it? Well, personally. . . "whimper"? I admit that it makes me look a bit crusty, and while if he's a pirate we get more information it's not so good for me, I'm afraid, and I'm not sure what I can do to wash this secondhand scum off. Now I'll go look at his posts that DON'T appear to implicate me. . .
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 12:51:40 GMT -5
Just another thing that jumps out at me as weird. Something to consider is that if zuma is Sam, he's getting new information every night as he investigates another crewmember. One thing to look for, then, might be whether zuma appears to change course on somebody or whether he starts mentioning someone, positively or negatively, seemingly out of the blue. If he does turn out to be Sam, it does have VERY interesting implications. I'd like to repeat that, as far as false role claiming and verisimilitude is concerned, Steele and Sam look very similar, functionally. . .
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 11, 2007 12:51:49 GMT -5
Blaster Master:Question: if zuma was Ben Gunn, and the pirates targeted him and the Doctor blocked, would the Doctor know that his protection was superfluous? I don't think this is conclusively resolved in Mal's rules and rule clarifications, and if the answer is no, then we can't rule out zuma being Ben Gunn after all. Although I agree with you that it doesn't make much difference. See Reply #232. Ben prevents himself from being wounded and so the Doctor is never needed - he doesn't appear on the scene in the case of a Steele block either. Obviously he's only triggered by the sound of a man in mortal pain.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 12:54:10 GMT -5
Mal:Gotcha. Thanks; I must have missed that. capy:Do you feel comfortable commenting on any of those implications?
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 11, 2007 13:03:24 GMT -5
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 11, 2007 13:06:02 GMT -5
I don't know how many times this has to be explained, because it's already been laid out several times, and I'm not going to do it again because the only reason I think someone wants to revist it is to get more information on the Doctor. So, that's that. All I am saying is that IF Idle Thoughts is not a pirate, THEN I will be suspicious of everyone who expressed certainty that he was. (This is not exactly an unorthodox strategy to take in this game.) I have not asked you what information you have. I have not asked you for any clues or tips or suggestions as to what information you have. I'm not asking you to defend your position, I'm not asking you for any response whatsoever, and unless Idle Thoughts is proven to not be a pirate, then you are defending against a position that I have not taken. All I am saying is "if it turns out you're lying, I'll suspect you" - which I say equally to every player in the game.
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 13:09:40 GMT -5
From #257 on day. . . 3, Zuma says
Gee, THANKS, Zuma.
In regards to his claims to watcher status and your request for thoughts, Gad, I'm thinkin'. . . ok, to claim to have watched AZTeach is safe, as he'd been outed more or less as more or less confirmed town. And he claims to watch Pleo afraid he might get attacked. Now, AZ we're pretty secure on, but how would we have confirmed he was telling the truth about Pleo? Well, if he was lying and Pleo knows it, it's because Pleo HAS been involved in something, in which case he SURE isn't going to say anything to contradict Zuma. So Zuma's claims as to who he's been watching aren't verifiable whether or not he's Steele or Sam or nobody at all, and even if he is one of the former two we can't know who he's watched.
If he IS Sam, again (very cynical, and this is for you, Gad, in response to your query-- I've already mentioned this possibility) if he thought he could get away with it, he could point at Idle for the gallows because (in this hypothetical situation) he's spied on him and knows Idle's scum as would be revealed at death-- Idle's death would appear to verify Zuma's Steele claim.
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 13:10:02 GMT -5
Crap. Nice coding.
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 11, 2007 13:12:49 GMT -5
All I am saying is that IF Idle Thoughts is not a pirate, THEN I will be suspicious of everyone who expressed certainty that he was. (This is not exactly an unorthodox strategy to take in this game.) (snip) Actually it's simply wrong. Remember: anyone (even "mason-type-players") but pirates don't know the roles of anyone else until that player is dead. So: if crewmember Alpha says crewmember Beta is pirate (because he doesn't like him, because he FOS'd crewmember Beta, or whatever) he does so because he doesn't have enough information. However, scum know (at least) if someone is a pirate or not. From that, Pirate Gamma can say with certainty "Crewmember Beta is crew. Or else I die". It's the "perfect information syndrome" you have to watch out for.
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Post by capybara on Jun 11, 2007 13:17:40 GMT -5
And in response to myself, of course I went to the kitchen and remembered why that theory about Idle Thoughts was dumb the first time. Never mind. Sorry.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 11, 2007 13:25:50 GMT -5
So why Idle? The only plausible reason anyone has come up with (and wants to voice) is to quickly draw suspicion from NAF. It would be days before anyone came back to NAF. Game Days, perhaps. What about what I've been saying? That, since the last Day, I expressed not believing (more and rather stronger than anyone else) in his claim to be Captain Steele. Perhaps he thought or figured the only way I could be so strong in my belief is if I were Captain Steele myself.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 11, 2007 13:27:55 GMT -5
Mal:Nice!
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jun 11, 2007 13:34:21 GMT -5
Second: I don't know if Idle is scum or not at this point. When I put together my post he seemed like the most scummy player on the deck to me. How so? I replied to that huge post you made stating your case and I thought it was a pretty good and reasonable rebuttal. So would you mind, maybe, explaining yourself to those points? I've pointed out in my second post in this Day's thread that YOU have been wayyyy more inconsistant than anything you've said I've been. So..where's the defense on that? Funny. I don't see anyone doing that. I see people saying exactly what you're saying. That the jury is still out on me. EXCUSE ME?! I was all ready to ask for a Mod Kill if I was allowed and if this current Day would go on!
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