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Post by bufftabby on Jun 12, 2008 15:41:10 GMT -5
How do we know that type 2 can't bring more to their side? We have no proof that I'm aware of. What if any newly-possessed folks haven't felt the urge to advertise their shoe problems? While yes, it seems as though standard recruitment isn't part of it, but I don't see how this is any great revelation, proving any sort of townieness. We don't know...I don't see how that's relevant. Because you said it was a fact that we knew D2mons couldn't recruit and that somehow "proves" something about DS. I'm saying that isn't necessarily the case. Why not? What does it equal? It looks like fishing for power roles no matter what angle I attempt to look at it from. He said the same basic things as Hal--after Hal said them, yes? Your little bon mot about "Maybe [Hal's] scum too!!!!11" is misplaced, because Hal never fished for power roles. That's why Darth is under suspicion, and I've seen no evidence that clears him. Yeah...that''s my point. He said the same basic things as Hal. If DS was scum, how would he know that Hal was possessed and to mimic him? He wouldn't. And I still don't see where DS said he was fishing for power roles. --FCOD[/quote] How did anyone realize Hal was possessed? I would imagine that if Darth wanted to play at being posessed, he could pick up on the clues just as easily. And do you really expect someone to admit that they were fishing for power roles? I doubt it.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Jun 12, 2008 15:44:10 GMT -5
New page, new vote count!
Vote Count FlyingCowofDoom (4): misterblockey, Merestil Haye, Roosh, Blaster Master hockeymonkey (3): NAF1138, FlyingCowofDoom, Darth Sensitive Darth Sensitive (2): hockeymonkey, bufftabby misterblockey (2): tdpatriots, Rysto tdpatriots (1): Nanook NAF1138 (1): Kison Roosh (1): hawkeyeop
Not Voting: 5
A little over 3 hours left you crazy, crazy people.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 12, 2008 15:53:01 GMT -5
I don't know what else I have to say now that I have caught up.
I find HM's non-claim unconvincing at best and I don't think I will move my vote.
I am only halfway surprised that FCoD is the vote leader. Halfway only because it came up so fast...where were you people's votes earlier?
I am horrified that there are still 5 people not voting. And I really don't know what to do at this point about that.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 12, 2008 15:59:54 GMT -5
This is actually a very good observation and one I'd never put together(penalty + lynch = opportunism) so I shall be having another look at the votes yesterday. Eh, sure, it's a possibility. But I'm thinking that the scum would have wanted to stay as far away from SDM as possible. His +5 penalty votes mean that every vote that was actually placed on him is going to draw more attention than the average vote. I mean, even mathematically it works out. Only 3 people voted for him, and he was lynched with a total of 8. That means my vote, for example, was worth (in terms of pure value in pushing a lynch) more than twice as much as any vote on me. Meaning it stands out. Why would the scum go to such trouble? (Just to be even clearler, I mean that 8/3 = 2.67, and 7/7 = 1) * If I'm a powerful scum role. If I'm a goon, what's the value in RoOsh and/or NAF making as big of a scene as both of them did (Roosh by volume, NAF by timing) ? * If RoOsh and/or NAF are scum and they believed that SDM was more likely to be a power role than me. This strikes me as possible, but remotely. * If both SDM and myself are town, then RoOsh and/or NAF were each, in effect, trying to keep the most townies alive as possible. Or had their own reasons for their vote, especially RoOsh. * Other? Feel free. Option #1 you could always test by lynching or investigating me. Option #2, well, I'm not sure how that could be confirmed, but you'd think if either of us was a town power role, we probly woulda claimed. Option #3, well, that requires you to believe me (and not necessarily RoOsh or NAF), so I can understand how people would be hesitant to accept it based on my reasoning alone. Also note gratuitous use of and/or. I never got the impression RoOsh and NAF were working together at all. This is going to sound incredibly self-serving, but I don't think any scum voted SDM, for reasons stated above. It just isn't nearly as good of an "opportunity" as it appears initially, in my view. See, I thought along these lines and stated so Yesterday. Interestingly enough, I think at the time I stated that, no on had any votes on SDM. Is it possible that one or more scum were afraid to vote there, but once seeing we probably wouldn't look at them as scummy for doing so, thought it was a great opportunity? Roosh has the hardest explanation, because he was the first, but he's also come up with the most exotic claim I've seen in a while. Legitimate claim, or scummy nonsense to try to explain his bizarre behavior post hoc? NAF, maybe Roosh is scum and thought he could ride Roosh's reasoning and let him get the blame? Maybe he legitimately thought he was less townie than you? Your vote looks null at first, but you also initially refused to vote for him. Was this you trying to look townie and then taking the opportunity when you had it? Either way, I think there's at least some potential scummy motivation for any of the votes, so I'm disinclined to just give any of you a pass. However, at this point, I don't see any real way to draw any conclusions about it, and considering it's the only reall information I have about any of you, I think we have bigger fish to fry at this point.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 12, 2008 16:01:01 GMT -5
By all accounts, it is reasonable to conclude she is very likely to be town, thus I find it unlikely that she is "twisting your words" which, to me, implies nefarious intent, and is much more likely to be either misunderstanding you, you're doing a poor job explaining yourself, or she's picking up on some things. Or she wasn't reading/understanding everything I'm saying. Why don't you look at the first time she twisted my words around, when storyteller commented how she was doing so. I like how you assume that because she's likely to be town she's automatically immune from playing badly. Poor play != scum. And yes, I'm suspicious of you for another reason, primarily your vote for Hal on Day One. I explained my reasoning then. My suspicion has not been assuaged since that time and, as of yet, I'm not inclined to find any of the other major candidates any more suspicious than that made me. That said, I still have a few pages left up on which to catch ( ), so maybe my view of the other votees will change. So, you're placing a lynch-pin vote with 3.5 hours left in the Day and you haven't even read the entire Day yet? ?? It boggles my mind. Because you said it was a fact that we knew D2mons couldn't recruit and that somehow "proves" something about DS. I'm saying that isn't necessarily the case. No, I didn't. I said that it was true that one d2mon possessed one player, as a game mechanic. It relates to DS because at that point of Day One we didn't know if d2mons were a game mechanic or a type of role, but he seemed to. By the way, that whole word-twisting thing you like to do to me? You're doing it again! Why not? What does it equal? It looks like fishing for power roles no matter what angle I attempt to look at it from. It equals good play, if you ask me. We should all be looking through dead players posts for hints, because we can be sure of where they are coming from when they said what they said. Fishing for power roles is the act of trying to get the power roles to reveal themselves, it's not reviewing post histories for hints. How did anyone realize Hal was possessed? I would imagine that if Darth wanted to play at being posessed, he could pick up on the clues just as easily. First, Hal responded to DS attempt to communicate with the exorcist/other possessed. Then, through carefully worded responses to other people's speculations he drew attention to himself. Finally, Nanook asked him about shoes. The point is that DS posted what he knew about the possession mechanics before any of that happened, so he'd have to either make a lucky guess or be possessed himself. This game is nearing the point of being broken, if you ask me. Between the non-voters, non-participants, last minute voters, and pure bad reasoning I doubt we have a chance in hell. I'm leaving to drive home from work now. I won't be back online until abour 6:30 Eastern, which is 1.5 hours left in the Day. Hopefully things won't change too much until then (ha ha). --FCOD
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 12, 2008 16:07:40 GMT -5
* On RoOsh. I will take some milk. Doesn't work like that. But I appreciate your enthusiasm! Tdpatriots, May I interest you in a Refreshing Bottle of Ice Cold Milk?Don't know if this has been commented on, but I wanted to point this out. Apparently there's more to the methodology of delivering the milk than Roosh has explained. I have some thoughts one what some of the methodology may be, but if you haven't done so already, I think it is to our advantage for you to offer up more information on this front.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 12, 2008 16:14:26 GMT -5
By all accounts, it is reasonable to conclude she is very likely to be town, thus I find it unlikely that she is "twisting your words" which, to me, implies nefarious intent, and is much more likely to be either misunderstanding you, you're doing a poor job explaining yourself, or she's picking up on some things. Or she wasn't reading/understanding everything I'm saying. Why don't you look at the first time she twisted my words around, when storyteller commented how she was doing so. I like how you assume that because she's likely to be town she's automatically immune from playing badly. Poor play != scum. I am making no such assumption. In fact, I specifically said it's quite possible that she's misunderstanding you. The only assumption that I'm making with regard to her probably being town, is that a town won't deliberately misrepresent what you said. Either she's misunderstanding, or you're doing a bad job explaining yourself. Any implication that she's twisting your words which, as I explained means nefarious intentions to me, is not congruent with her the very likely probability that she's pro-town aligned. No. I'm putting my vote out there for now. I even said that my opinion may change when I'm caught up. I fully intend to be caught up before the Day ends and if my opinion changes, so will my vote. Considering your post stating that it was very bad that some people hadn't voted, I find it odd that you're berating me for voting, particularly since my reasoning has nothing to do with any of the information that I have not yet read. Would you prefer I wait until I'm completely caught up and allow even less time for people to evaluate my vote?
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Post by bufftabby on Jun 12, 2008 17:13:36 GMT -5
By all accounts, it is reasonable to conclude she is very likely to be town, thus I find it unlikely that she is "twisting your words" which, to me, implies nefarious intent, and is much more likely to be either misunderstanding you, you're doing a poor job explaining yourself, or she's picking up on some things. Or she wasn't reading/understanding everything I'm saying. Why don't you look at the first time she twisted my words around, when storyteller commented how she was doing so. I like how you assume that because she's likely to be town she's automatically immune from playing badly. Poor play != scum. Oh noes, FCOD is twisting BlaM's words! Bad bad FCOD! I'm not playing poorly; I can't read your mind with all that fecal matter in the way. Does it hurt to be that full of shit? Or do you just smell bad all the time? You know what, you're right. I'm twisting your words like I'm roOsh twisting your titties for milk. It's my hobby. I love it. You caught me. Congratulations, Columbo. Fishing for power roles would seems to me to be anything that might bring a power role to the attention of scum. I don't disagree that it could be beneficial to look through dead players' posts. That wasn't the idea DS originally put forth. The idea was for anyone to make public any breadcrumbs they've noticed. I think that's a terrible idea, but good play. For scum.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 12, 2008 17:29:40 GMT -5
FTR, my interpretation of WIFOM is decidedly different than the one you gave and is more based on a nuance of how the scene played out. Vizzini (the guy making the choice) would continually make outlandish explanations for why one of the choices was bad, and follow it up with saying "but you would have known I'd known that" and thus eliminate the other. summarized examples: Iocane comes from Australia, Australia is inhabited by criminals, Criminals don't trust people, I can't choose the wine in from of me. But, you must have suspected I'd know the wine's origin, so I can't choose the wine in front of you. Only a great fool would choose the wine he was given, so I can't choose the win in front of you. You must have known I wasn't a great fool, so I can't choose the wine in front of me. Et cetera... As far as I've always applied it to mafia, it comes to a concept like "I don't think scum would do that... but maybe they would because they'd think we'd think they wouldn't do it." Basically, it's a vicious cycle of who does what based entirely on what you may or may not think what your opponent is thinking and is basically just a flawed argument from the get go. Alright, if Roosh IS telling the truth, this is how I figure it: NIGHT ONE: I. TdPats is Your Lover. - False. Roosh might have no idea about this, but TDPats surely should. Either TDPats is lying or this has to be false. I think it's that simple. 2. You are Paranoid. - WIFOM, obviously. 3. You are a Milkman. - True. By elimination and because this is far too much screwing around to be false, even for this site. NIGHT TWO: 1. I need you guys let me deliver you milk. Or Else there is a lethal consequence for me. - False. I doubt there'd be a lethal consequence just because one person failed to post that they accepted the milk or something. 2. I lose if the Demons outnumber the Survivors. - True by elimination. In other words, Roosh is either town or has every incentive to work with us to meet his own win condition. W00t! 3. I am a Crazy Townie. - WIFOM. My theory is that there's no such thing, so both answers seem reasonable but are in fact incorrect. I can't see how either other option could truly be WIFOM in the sense that I think it's meant, but this one could. That said, I have some issue with the interpretation of the second set. My main issue is the inclusion of win conditions. I see Crazy townie as a straight up true or false sort of question, not a WIFOM. I'd be inclined to think that is false. As such, I'm inclined to think the win condition is probably true (unless Roosh falsified it, which seems unlikely at this point). That is, I'm of the opinion that the delivering of milk is the WIFOM one. He can deliver the milk without knowing what it does and potentially have anti-town results or he can NOT deliver the milk and potentially die. One option or the other is possibly (but not necessarily) superior to the other, and he has no way to determine which action is the correct one. Even assuming Roosh is honest and that my analysis is correct, this still doesn't give me any reason to think the milk is necessarily harmless, muchless good.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 12, 2008 17:48:06 GMT -5
I am making no such assumption. In fact, I specifically said it's quite possible that she's misunderstanding you. The only assumption that I'm making with regard to her probably being town, is that a town won't deliberately misrepresent what you said. Either she's misunderstanding, or you're doing a bad job explaining yourself. Any implication that she's twisting your words which, as I explained means nefarious intentions to me, is not congruent with her the very likely probability that she's pro-town aligned. I did not correctly read your sentence. Certainly, she is obviously misunderstanding me, but she's done it repeatedly, so I don't really have an explanation. No. I'm putting my vote out there for now. I even said that my opinion may change when I'm caught up. I fully intend to be caught up before the Day ends and if my opinion changes, so will my vote. Considering your post stating that it was very bad that some people hadn't voted, I find it odd that you're berating me for voting, particularly since my reasoning has nothing to do with any of the information that I have not yet read. Would you prefer I wait until I'm completely caught up and allow even less time for people to evaluate my vote? I would prefer that you didn't wait until 4 hours to end of Day to come and read the thread. I'd prefer that you didn't place a tie-breaking vote without having read pages of conversation. What I want is for people to be PARTICIPATING, so that they can vote early. bufftabby, you are immature and have stooped to a level that I will not. I am not going to respond to your posts from now on. --FCOD
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Post by bufftabby on Jun 12, 2008 17:55:56 GMT -5
bufftabby, you are immature and have stooped to a level that I will not. I am not going to respond to your posts from now on. --FCOD Then I've been successful. I'm pretty sure mentioning that you're full of shit for something that, well, you're full of shit on is not particularly "immature", even when done in a florid manner. One can only have one's words twisted by someone who is accusing one of twisting words so many times before frustration sets in.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 12, 2008 17:59:34 GMT -5
I obviously have to do what I know is best for the town here, and that is for me not to be lynched. I know I am town 100%. I also know that I need to be alive to do my part tonight. I don't like how FCOD has responded to pretty much anything this whole last part of the Day. It seems like a huge overreaction. I still don't like Darth's whole footwear issue that has been a non-issue since Hal died, and I’ll be looking at that further, but for today:
unvote Darth Sensitive vote FCOD
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 12, 2008 18:08:49 GMT -5
Well, since it's looks like it's gonna be me, I'll make my role claim.
There isn't one. I'm vanilla town. Unfortunately, I believe that most of the people voting for me are also town, so my death won't bring out much information. At least soon I'll know what the real setup is!
Go town!
--FCOD
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 12, 2008 18:09:55 GMT -5
Molefan:So far we have killed a Demon Lord and a vanilla town. I think we are doing just fine. Sure yesterday lynch was crappy, but most last minute lynches are. Kat and others were able to analyze posts and find scum day 1. That is not an easy task, and I take umbrage with considering it pure luck. Just because you don't like the reasoning, doesn't make the reasoning invalid. Just some nit-picking here. I agree that the lynch on Day One was poorly reasoned. The fact that the result of the reasoning was correct does not in anyway show that the reasoning was valid. That is, in a boolean universe, true can only imply true, but false can imply true as well as false. In terms of this game, valid logic based on true premises will always result in a valid deduction; however, just because the result agrees with the assertion of the arguer does not mean that his logic or his premises are necessarily true or accurate. This is an important distinction, because the only time it IS useful is when the result is false, which means the logic and/or the presmises MUST be false. This is particularly of note when it comes to investigative roles because, as I'm sure most of us are aware by now, a detective or a lying scum can give true result, so verifying his results really doesn't give us anything in and of itself. However, if a claimed detective gives us a bad reading, it is false and thus there is something wrong with the logic (a detective gets true result except on a godfather type role) or the premise (he is a detective). I'm pointing this out, not because I think it's scummy, as bad logic is usually a null tell, but because it's just plain bad logic and I don't want us to get caught up in a trap that that is good logic, because it may come back to bite us in the butt later. My objection was considering it pure luck. Any lynch not aided by a power role is going to be some combination of skill, luck, and scum interference. There isn't anyway to separate the components out. There is no true and false, just probabilities. People who do X are Y% likely to be scum. I have a hard time with anyone being able to discern what those percentages are. So you may believe it was a poor lynch, but maybe there is a high X = Y there that you haven't noticed. There is no objective way to determine these things, so I consider it a waste of time to argue whether a successful lynch was lucky or skilled. Please do try to make an effort to show up earlier in the day tomorrow.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 12, 2008 18:10:38 GMT -5
How did I go from wanting to place an early vote toDay to only placing a last minute one. Some RL issues aside, I wasn't sure who to vote for earlier in the day. I'm still not 100% certain.
Vote Roosh I'm voting for who I think is the scummiest.
I am not buying what Roosh is shovelling. (One reason why I had no compuction in accepting the milk). I think it is BS. Maybe, just maybe, there is a kernel of truth in there somewhere, maybe he is even an amensiac, but I think Roosh is spinning it for all it's worth.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 12, 2008 18:17:18 GMT -5
If there is one person screams vanilla town me it is FCOD. He is paranoid about everyone and everything. I'd venture to guess he has said something sounded suspicious about pretty much everyone. The most likely reason for this is that he has no clue what is going on. Vanilla town members have nothing to go on and can't trust anything. I'm strongly against this lynch.
unvote Roosh
vote Hockey Monkey
As I said I didn't care for Buffy/NAF's argument, but I have found other things she has done a bit suspicious. I mentioned earlier how she seemed to want to push the focus upon Roosh and Story, possible PFKs. She isn't quite at the top my list, but she is highest viable candidate.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 12, 2008 18:21:37 GMT -5
How did I go from wanting to place an early vote toDay to only placing a last minute one. Some RL issues aside, I wasn't sure who to vote for earlier in the day. I'm still not 100% certain. Vote Roosh I'm voting for who I think is the scummiest. I am not buying what Roosh is shovelling. (One reason why I had no compuction in accepting the milk). I think it is BS. Maybe, just maybe, there is a kernel of truth in there somewhere, maybe he is even an amensiac, but I think Roosh is spinning it for all it's worth. Deep breathes Roosh. Deep breathes.
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Post by Nanook on Jun 12, 2008 18:28:36 GMT -5
I find HM's non-claim unconvincing at best and I don't think I will move my vote. Someone else also mentioned that HM was making a non-claim claim of doctor. Could someone point out to me where this occurred? And I don't mean HM's most recent post, since the one I'm quoting and the one I'm referring to both occurred before it. I can't seem to find it.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 12, 2008 18:34:15 GMT -5
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 12, 2008 18:37:30 GMT -5
Crap. I was hoping to not have to do this. I am a Martyr. I am aligned with the town and I win with the town. Every night I have to pick someone to take the place of if they are targeted for a kill. I'd rather not say who I picked nights one and two because I don't want the scum to try to outguess me if I live through this lynch. Of course, I am utterly useless if I am lynched. So not really a doctor, but a protective role nonetheless.
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Gir!
FGM
EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 12, 2008 18:39:05 GMT -5
I completely missed any non-claim claim by hockeymonkey as well. Anyone got a link?
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Gir!
FGM
EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 12, 2008 18:39:54 GMT -5
That'll teach me to post without refreshing...
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 12, 2008 18:40:11 GMT -5
I completely missed any non-claim claim by hockeymonkey as well. Anyone got a link? pssst, two posts up.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 12, 2008 18:40:55 GMT -5
That'll teach me to post without refreshing... hmm, me too. Simulpost got me again. :shakes fist at the air: DAMN YOU SIMULPOST!
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Gir!
FGM
EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 12, 2008 18:45:33 GMT -5
Damn this. Vote Czech. Why? Because the most productive thing he's done is vote Hal and then backtrack shortly thereafter, then disappear. Then, when he was called on it, he popped up 10 minutes later, posted 4 times and disappeared again.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 12, 2008 18:47:26 GMT -5
Anyone got an updated vote count and list of non-voters?
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 12, 2008 18:52:34 GMT -5
Vote Count FlyingCowofDoom (5): misterblockey, Merestil Haye, Roosh, Blaster Master, Hockey Monkey hockeymonkey (4): NAF1138, FlyingCowofDoom, Darth Sensitive, hawkeyepop Darth Sensitive (1): bufftabby misterblockey (2): tdpatriots, Rysto tdpatriots (1): Nanook NAF1138 (1): Kison Roosh (1): Smurf czech (1): Kat!
This is just an update of what our mod already posted.
4 it seems aren't voting but I haven't looked to see who yet.
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Gir!
FGM
EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 12, 2008 18:57:56 GMT -5
Even assuming Roosh is honest and that my analysis is correct, this still doesn't give me any reason to think the milk is necessarily harmless, muchless good. Well, assuming Roosh is telling the truth about the whole milk thing, I'm leaning towards it not being harmful, based on the fact that (according to Roosh), atarus ruled that the milk delivery to me was completed, despite the fact that I never actually agreed to it. If Roosh is lying about that one piece of information, well, all you other people are screwed, but what would be the benefit of doing so? It'd make more sense for Roosh to have just asked me again. And, if the milk is harmful, then atarus is a Bastard-er Mod than anyone else for that ruling.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 12, 2008 18:59:51 GMT -5
Thanks NAF. I think all of our top 3 vote getters are town, and have suspicions on the single ones. I'm going to go ahead and vote
unvote Hockey Czech
I think Czech might purposely be trying to lurk.
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Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 12, 2008 19:00:02 GMT -5
No-voters; Czech, Kison, Storyteller. Kat just voted.
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