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Day Two
Jul 30, 2007 20:08:56 GMT -5
Post by Greedy Smurf on Jul 30, 2007 20:08:56 GMT -5
OK so have a little break at work. I aplogise for the lengthy post, but I really wanted to work through some things. In this post when discussing who votes were made for I’m going to refer to me in the third person for clarity – it makes it easier to read I think. And apologies in advance I can't figure out how to make a hyperlink take you to a specific post it seems to only take you to the top of the page the post is on. Starting point for my analysis is Drainbead was in the lead with 3 votes, Dnooman on 2 votes. At Post #242– Jsexton votes for Greedy – no explanation, follows that in post #252 with his analysis of my ‘smoking gun’ post, his suspicions seem mainly based on grammatical nuances and awareness of posting impressions. I'm willing to let that slip to some extent, on the basis that it's the first Day, there is very little to go on, so this may have stood out. It's enough though to keep on eye out because basically I was the first distraction wagon from Drainbead - scum organised or not? Not sure Hal Briston in #257 rehashes some of Jsextons analysis and votes for Greedy. This is after saying in post #249 that he had nothing – “ was everyone choosing their words especially carefully”. A little twitch here, I see a wagon forming. Diggitcamera in #259 agrees with Jsexton saying there are ‘compelling reason’ and votes Greedy. This is after saying in post #246 he had no strong suspicions. Wagon definitely rolling now! Innocent one or scum orchestrated? At post #278, Greedy, Drainbead and Dnooman are locked on 3 votes each Drainbead posts that she doesn’t think it is a good tactic to lynch lurkers. Dnooman had his three votes at this stage essentially for ‘lurking’ people are trying to get him to post, is Drainbead trying to subtly prompt a swing of votes from Dnooman over onto Greedy, who in the last 20 posts or so has been tied to a quickly accelerating wagon? Post #280 Hockey votes for Malacandra – I was initially very suspect of this, but now that we know Hockey was town, blows that out of the water. Post #287 Drainbead says Mal feels very scummy to her. Is she trying to kickstart a new wagon here in the hopes of saving herself? Because by this point the momentum on the Greedy vote seems to have slackened off – primarily due I think to posts by Blaster and Cowgirl. It is not too late to get Mal’s votes up past Drain, so it would be fatalistic (and a bit WIFOM on my part) to suspect that Drain has already written herself of and is going for the “ everyone will think Mal is a townie when they review my votes” ploy. Posts #289 & 310 the Mal wagon gets rolling with votes from Cowgirl and Mhaye. I thought Cowgirls stated reasons for the vote were a bit so so, however the stalling of my wagon was in part thanks to Cowgirl so if she is psycho why do that? why speak up for me, just to have to try and start a new wagon on someone else? Seems to point towards townie for Cowgirl. Post #311 – Dnooman votes for Drainbead – this is starting to get late in the day – this vote puts Drain 2 votes clear of everyone else – if placed on either Greedy or Mal would have tied up the vote. Would the scum still be playing silly buggers getting this close to the end of the Day? Surely they wouldn't have written Drain off if they could have tied up the vote with a relatively low-suspicion vote. I think this is a tick for Dnooman. Capybara votes for Mal in post #316, I’m not sure how to read this one, psycho still trying to save Drain? Not sure #325 Kat votes for Greedy – my analysis here is now moot. Mal votes for Greedy at post #335, saying he isn’t going to save his own neck? Is it really that big a black mark to say I’m voting for so and so to save my own hide? I did it and didn’t get crucified for it? Maybe it isn’t too WIFOM to be suspecting Drains vote for Mal back at #287At Post #341 Nesta votes for drainbead, taking her to 7 votes, now two clear of both Mal & Greedy. Nesta could have tied the vote up with a vote on either Mal or Greedy? Seems to indicate townie? Post #354 Is Mhaye with a longish analysis of the vote, and shifting his vote from Mal to Drain. A last minute vote that changed nothing no matter which way he voted. Is this a last minute leap for the scum to appear with the angels. Not sure? The post seems very lengthy and has some sound thinking and analysis in it, seems a lot of work if it’s just to cover a last minute “ look at me I’m voting for the scum too” statement. And Dotchan – no vote, I’m not sure how to read this, a vote from her could have been decisive in the last bit, potentially saving Drain bead. She would have to know people would be suspicious of a no vote – if she is scum wouldn’t it have been better to jump on either Greedy or Mal to save Drain? What would have been worse – no vote or being one of the last ones in lynching a (probable) townie? So after that long winded piece- this is my view on the remaining players - Hal & Diggitcamera - suspicious, will be keeping a close eye on these two. JSexton - not sure, but my gut is saying OK, Malacandra - also not sure, but my gut here is saying scum, Dnooman, Mhaye, & Dotchan - all three have a little question mark in my mind but I'm leaning town for them, Blaster & Storyteller - both playing a strong vocal role, if they're scum they're doing it well, leaning town at the moment Nesta & Cowgirl - I'm happy that they're both town at this stage, Capybara, Mad the Swine, & Pygmy Rugger - for whatever reason I don't have a read here at all, Last but not least Roosh - there was a post by Roosh early in Day one that set my gut tingling, but now I'm not sure, judgement reserved here. So anyway that's my two cents and where my thinking is at the moment. [Oh and apologies for any spelling errors - my post seems to have broken the spell checker]
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Day Two
Jul 30, 2007 20:21:13 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Jul 30, 2007 20:21:13 GMT -5
Damn....Sorry to see ya go Kat and Hockey I will be looking forward to your return as lesbian zombie cheerleaders though. I have just completed a read through,though I wont be able to post tonight about my thoughts,I will tomorrow. (Worked all day and am exausted again ...have tomorrow off though and will spend a lot of time here.)
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Death By Irony
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Day Two
Jul 30, 2007 21:28:57 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Jul 30, 2007 21:28:57 GMT -5
Not including myself or the confirmed dead.
1. Blaster Master - Great strategy discussions (though the part about Geniuses could be interpreted as role-fishing). 2. Hal Briston - Non content posts tend to be a bit jokey, but once he gets down to analysis they're very well thought out. His early "I've got nothing" post pinged my suspicion meter (because really, at that point why did he even need to say "I've got nothing"?), but otherwise I'm not getting anything too scummy from him. 3. Storyteller0910 - Also excellent analysis. 4. Malacandra - His discussion of Genius strategy is a bit eyebrow raising, ditto the third vote on dnooman for lurking. HockeyMonkey's death may or may not be his fault tangentially, since he was the highest on her suspect list. 6. MadtheSwine - Not all that much content, and though I'm not clear on previous play history he does seem a bit odd. 7. Capybara - Likes to call people out a lot, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (as that does get discussion going), but it also reads a bit as "the lady doth protest too much". 9. DiggitCamera - Not a whole lot to go by. 12. GreedySmurf - The whole "not to play the newbie card but" thing annoyed me a little too, but that doesn't make her more or less likely to be scum, just as it isn't a given whether or not a veteran player is scum. 13. Roosh - Inconsistent read. There are some things about his posts that don't quite sit well with me, but right now I can't point to one thing that says "aha! Scumtell!" 14. dnooman - No impression either way. 15. cowgirl - She does voice her suspicions of a few people, but drain bead's not one of them. This may or may not mean something. 16. nesta - No impression either way. 17. Pygmy Rugger - Pinged my suspicion meter a little over the discussion over Night One's killings, but as far as I can tell it was just a misunderstanding. 18. JSexton - He's the one who actually started the whole discussion over what side the Geniuses were on. (See Reply #123.) And his overanalysis of Greedy Smurf seems a bit of a stretch--his supicions may or may not turn out to be correct in the end, but having one's words picked apart for the tinest of scumtells can become a disincentive to post. 19. Mhaye - Namedropped quite a bit in his post voting for drain bead...is it better to have a detailed vote explanation, or just do it based on "gut feelings"...?
I suppose it's due to my own playing style, but I'm actually more suspicious of the people whose posts read as deliberate and thoughtful than off the cuff since the scum can coordinate by talking in secret.
At this point I feel that it's a tossup, and though I'd rather vote on stronger evidence, we might not ever get any, so...
(Argh the better part of me really doesn't want to do this--I know it's only a game but it still doesn't sit well with me.)
vote Malacandra
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Day Two
Jul 30, 2007 22:17:39 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 30, 2007 22:17:39 GMT -5
Malacandra (2) - JSexton, dotchan Mhaye (1) - dnooman Roosh (1) - Storyteller0910
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RoOsh
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Day Two
Jul 30, 2007 23:48:11 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jul 30, 2007 23:48:11 GMT -5
Right now, I consider you to be the person most likely to be scum; why should I not place a vote and document that fact? Well, I know I'm a townie, so a lynch in favor of me would not really get the town anywhere, but of course that's not a very good defense i suppose. The biggest thing I have to say is something which is mentioned later on (I think JSexton says it, where he states that Storyteller is more townie because he led the charge against Drainbead. ). To me, in terms of voting, Storyteller was the FIRST to vote for Drainbead, but that doesn't make him an automatic pro-townie. The votes before I voted were: dotchan (1) - JSexton Malacandra (1) - Blaster Master JSexton (1) - Malacandra drainbead (1) - storyteller0910 GreedySmurf (1) - kat dnooman (1) - Hockey Monkey
(Copied from Reply 224 on day 1) At that point, scum could have voted and they could have not voted because there was a six way tie. Anyone could have been voted for with a high-likely hood that they were not going to be voted. Possibly even scum just voting for other scum that day. I sat down and thought about my vote for a while. And then i posted my thoughts on each of those people (because i had used an older voting list from the page before and didn't see those votes) (except for Dnoo/greedy), and my vote was the first to break the tiebreaker and actually vote for Drainbead. I felt he was the most suspicious and at that point it seemed like everyone did not want to start a bandwagon or put a vote on someone, but i felt of the four i looked at, Drainbead was the guiltiest and i voted for him and STUCK with him the entire time. Others posted arguments for each of their own cases on why they thought each of the others was worse- and i suppose if i was scum, i'd think that i should have listened to them, and switched my vote because at that point why kill a fellow scum so early, i could have killed an innocent and gotten away with it or something like that- But i believed Drainy was guilty, and so i stuck with him. I'm one of the few who never changed their votes that entire day. That's prolly about the only good thinking reason i can say for my un-scummyness, but still. It is what it is. Also, i can't help but look at Jsexton, who did the same thing as me- he voiced suspicion of Malacandra and even went so far as to be the first VOTE for the guy, but he's getting away scott-free, Storyteller? But he even goes on to state that he thinks that you (Story) are a townie just because you offered one of the first votes for Drainbead: ...Now i went and looked back actually to your posts since my post was made voting for Drainbead It's reply #229 on page 8 i believe of Day one.... Since then, I started to skim looking for all the Storyteller posts. And sure enough he posts: Reply #175-You vote for Drainy. Reply #182 -Fluff Reply #185 - You answer a reply to Drain's Question("what do you mean by "weirdly specific?"). You explain you feel he was disingenuous. ~These are the replies now that I've voted and Drainbead's got more than 1 vote on him IE: It's no longer a 6 way tie.~ Reply 237-where he explains why he voted for Drain again. I liked this post actually, as i felt like you were agreeing with my thoughts, which def. made me feel better. Reply #258 You butt heads w/ JSexton on the random voting issue. Reply #262 - You encourage people to not to bandwagon votes, but certainly to vote for people on bandwagons IF YOU FEEL they're guilty. This again was another post i tended to agree with (You always give me such a reassuring vibe storyteller, like everything you say makes me go.... "Gee. Wow. You're so right. It's like the veteran helping out the newbies." But its also really... icky. And then your next post... That's it. Those were all the posts you made since Drainbead's gotten more than 1 vote. I didn't really see it the same way as JSexton who said that because you started the "lynch" on Drainy that you get auto town-cred for it. And then JSexton goes on to vote for Malacandra.... and no response from you. So my question to you Storyteller, why only Me? Why the double-standard here? You don't seem like a guy who be flattered by Jsexton's townie cred to just stop suspecting the guy....
So why'd you pick my FOSin' of Malacandra over JSexton's VOTING of malacandra?(To me and my simple mind, i think i was wise to FOS the three of you, because somewhere in there i think there could be a scum, but the problem is i like all 3 of you guys from previous games that i'm biased into liking you guys and what you say (like you Storyteller, everything that you seem to say on day 1 just made me nod my head and go, "exactly! That's what i'm talking about!") So i dunno if you Storyteller are on the Up and up and JSexton isnt, or if you and Jsexton are working in cahoots here, or if Malacandra really is the bad guy in this all along.... But i'm hoping you'll help clarify things for me, dude. As your tend to help explain things to me alot more. So I'm asking you in light of this evidence, what do you think of your relationship to JSexton vs. yours and Myself? Or does noone else see what I think i'm seeing here?
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Day Two
Jul 30, 2007 23:57:11 GMT -5
Post by dnooman on Jul 30, 2007 23:57:11 GMT -5
2. Hal Briston - Non content posts tend to be a bit jokey, but once he gets down to analysis they're very well thought out. His early "I've got nothing" post pinged my suspicion meter (because really, at that point why did he even need to say "I've got nothing"?), but otherwise I'm not getting anything too scummy from him. Agreed, but what exactly did you think was "well thought out"? 4. Malacandra - His discussion of Genius strategy is a bit eyebrow raising, ditto the third vote on dnooman for lurking. HockeyMonkey's death may or may not be his fault tangentially, since he was the highest on her suspect list. How was Hockey's death "his fault tangentially"? 12. GreedySmurf - The whole "not to play the newbie card but" thing annoyed me a little too, but that doesn't make her more or less likely to be scum, just as it isn't a given whether or not a veteran player is scum. I don't think you said anything of substance in regards to Greedy, please explain. 15. cowgirl - She does voice her suspicions of a few people, but drain bead's not one of them. This may or may not mean something. So, she didn't vote for the known scum. Her actions after that warrant examination, please post your take on them. 18. JSexton - He's the one who actually started the whole discussion over what side the Geniuses were on. And your position on that is? 19. Mhaye - Namedropped quite a bit in his post voting for drain bead...is it better to have a detailed vote explanation, or just do it based on "gut feelings"...? So, did his post seem scummy to you or not? I suppose it's due to my own playing style, but I'm actually more suspicious of the people whose posts read as deliberate and thoughtful than off the cuff since the scum can coordinate by talking in secret. At this point I feel that it's a tossup, and though I'd rather vote on stronger evidence, we might not ever get any, so... Scum can talk in secret, so can the geniuses. What are you saying specifically? (Argh the better part of me really doesn't want to do this--I know it's only a game but it still doesn't sit well with me.) vote MalacandraThis post does not seem to logically lead to a vote for Malacandra to me. You certainly haven't made a solid case for it. I'll be the first to say that Malacandra's voting history is suspect (mostly because he cast a third vote for me for no good reason, that evened the playing field. Secondarily because he seems to exhibit zero pro-town behavior), but I'll vote for him when I think he's the most obvious scum in the pool, if ever. To me you sound like scum trying to justify pro-scum positions, with very very little factual info to back it up, if any. You are on my "leaning scum list", and I will fortify my argument later by quoting you. Until I do so, please answer my questions.
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Death By Irony
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 1:04:32 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Jul 31, 2007 1:04:32 GMT -5
Man, I put all that work into a post and it still gets taken apart. There's no pleasing you guys, is there? ;D Agreed, but what exactly did you think was "well thought out"? (About Hal Briston) For example, #124 about the Genius win condition and #257 the analysis on Greedy Smurf. How was Hockey's death "his (Malacandra's) fault tangentially"? Like it was said, Hockey may or may not have died because Mal was the highest on her scum list. Hence the "tangentially". I'm not actually blaming Mal--yet. I don't think you said anything of substance in regards to Greedy, please explain. I don't really have anything on Greedy either way. Her most eyebrow raising post, asking about no-lynch, seems more out of inexperience than anything else. I also don't completely buy the detailed explanation JSexton gave about Greedy's scumminess, but it is making me pay more attention So, she (cowgirl) didn't vote for the known scum. Her actions after that warrant examination, please post your take on them. I only see three posts that are relevant - a vote on Malacandra, and two fluffy night posts (the first apparently trying to suggest that there are three groups: town, scum, and psychopath, and the second a "oops" post). That first night post is a bit suspicious, but for now I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. And your position on that (JSexton's Genius discussion) is? Assuming "that" is referring to JSexton's post. On the one hand, it did clarify that the Geniuses are pro-town (but they have their own win condition), and it sort of reminds me of Hal Briston's "should we care about the Non-Believers" question in Mafia V; on the other, his positing that the Geniuses are effectively another mafia group (albeit with no nightkill) is a little worrying. Eventually the discussion got dropped anyway so at the moment it's just a little mark next to JSexton's name. So, did his (mhaye's) post seem scummy to you or not? Less suspicious than JSexton's "gut" vote on drain bead, certainly, but the analysis did not make mhaye have a stronger town vibe for me. Scum can talk in secret, so can the geniuses. What are you saying specifically? Well of course I'd be willing to consider that a deliberate-sounding player could be a genius, but my first suspicion tends to be "he/she is coming off as way too nitpicky--is this scum trying to justify their vote?" (Argh the better part of me really doesn't want to do this--I know it's only a game but it still doesn't sit well with me.) vote MalacandraThis post does not seem to logically lead to a vote for Malacandra to me. You certainly haven't made a solid case for it. It is, I admit, rather tentative. But I figure since we are past Day One, a wibbly vote is better than no vote. To me you sound like scum trying to justify pro-scum positions, with very very little factual info to back it up, if any. Honest question: Which would be the pro-scum positions that I'm supposedly advocating? As far as the lack of direct quoting goes - I tend not to do that, since it's hard to get the context and the overall flow of a conversation. So my suspicion list tends to be more general and hoping to see if I can find an overall trend. You are on my "leaning scum list", and I will fortify my argument later by quoting you. Until I do so, please answer my questions. Glad to answer! Just as long as you don't try to twist my words to make me sound scummy. ;D
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 1:24:11 GMT -5
Post by dnooman on Jul 31, 2007 1:24:11 GMT -5
Nice job Dotchan,
You are officially less suspicious as far as I'm concerned. That post was cogent, and addressed my questions.
However, the posts that made me wary of you are still out there.
Tomorrow will bring more questions, and hopefully as many answers.
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RoOsh
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 1:25:54 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jul 31, 2007 1:25:54 GMT -5
Less suspicious than JSexton's "gut" vote on drain bead, certainly, but the analysis did not make mhaye have a stronger town vibe for me. I think JSexton voted for GreedySmurf on Day 1 and i think he stuck with it all day (after switching his randomvote for you that is). Just a clarification, unless i misread something between you two.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 3:06:13 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jul 31, 2007 3:06:13 GMT -5
4. Malacandra - His discussion of Genius strategy is a bit eyebrow raising, ditto the third vote on dnooman for lurking. HockeyMonkey's death may or may not be his fault tangentially, since he was the highest on her suspect list. (Argh the better part of me really doesn't want to do this--I know it's only a game but it still doesn't sit well with me.) vote Malacandra Hi dotchan. Can I just ask a question or three? 1) What exactly is eyebrow-raising about my discussion of Genius strategy? In all the games I've participated in I've been anxious to examine all sides of a question like this, whether or not it makes me look bad; and I thought all I was saying is that the Genii might be better able to play for a solo win in this game than, say, the Masons could in M3. It hardly makes the Genii public enemy #1, as I thought was obvious. 2) dnooman - at the time it looked like one or two votes weren't going to wake him up, and he had plenty of company on three votes so it's hardly like I was just seizing the opportunity to lynch a lurker. I was fully prepared to unvote him once he showed up although as matters fell out his previous voters unvoted him before I could. I still maintain that it was sticking another pin in him that woke him up, but plainly that's unverifiable. 3) Yes, I suppose it's my fault in a way - if I was starting to gather suspicion on Day One then I imagine it's elementary scum strategy to bump off one of my detractors in order to net themselves a nice safe lynch on Day Two. But (advocating both sides of the argument again!) it could be a ballsy move on the part of the scum if I were one, reasoning that the town will never think the scum would dare be so blatant. At this point I'm really thinking I should have spent a year or two building up immunity to iocaine powder. It's only a game. On the other hand, I'm no keener on being toasted unnecessarily than the next man, and as I've said elsewhere, vanilla townies should be content to be lynched in a good cause, but we can't push that too far or else the scum will get the game handed to them on a plate.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 8:46:59 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 31, 2007 8:46:59 GMT -5
And apologies in advance I can't figure out how to make a hyperlink take you to a specific post it seems to only take you to the top of the page the post is on. FYI, there's a link on the bottom of each post that says "Link to Post". Clicking it will add the specific information for that post to the URL in the address bar. All you have to do is then copy and past that URL.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 8:51:11 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jul 31, 2007 8:51:11 GMT -5
Malacandra - Lots of attention here. the dnooman vote did seem like an attempt to derail DrainBead's lynch. Then, later, Mal votes GreedySmurf even while acknowledges that DB is probably the better lynch. Wow. Scum. vote: Malacandra Sorry, is that quite fair? I guess a vote for DrainBead would look like trying to save my own neck, so I'd better not. Is that a bad reason for not voting for DrainBead? By doing so it would have been likely that DB would indeed swing, but in the event that she turned out to be town (about five to one on assuming the usual numbers balance in this game), I reasoned that it would be highly likely to be viewed as a scum-tactic on my part to save my own neck. It didn't seem like quite time to panic there and then, and I reasoned that my best chance of not getting lynched on Day Two was to not look too obviously like I was trying to get someone else lynched in my stead on Day One. I had no reason to be strongly inclined in favour of lynching DB - I presume no-one did in the evidence-free world that is Day One - and so I can hardly be called scummy for refusing to join in the consensus. As for dnooman, I've explained about that already. The whole point was to get him to speak up, and that's what happened. There was plenty of time for all concerned to unvote him once he'd spoken his piece, and that's what happened. Mission accomplished.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 8:55:47 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 31, 2007 8:55:47 GMT -5
3) Yes, I suppose it's my fault in a way - if I was starting to gather suspicion on Day One then I imagine it's elementary scum strategy to bump off one of my detractors in order to net themselves a nice safe lynch on Day Two. But (advocating both sides of the argument again!) it could be a ballsy move on the part of the scum if I were one, reasoning that the town will never think the scum would dare be so blatant. At this point I'm really thinking I should have spent a year or two building up immunity to iocaine powder. While I understand what you're saying, I think the point from earlier Today warrants reitterating. While you correctly say that the psychos could have killed Hockey Monkey either to incriminate or vindicate you; it's also entirely possible that she was killed because she gave a power role tell or because she seemed someone pro-town in general or was a random/WTF kill, etc. So using it as any sort of evidence is suspect in my eyes. Even if every death for the next several days is someone who suspects you, and we become in some sense convinced that they're obviously trying to pull us in one direction or the other, we still have no way of knowing which way. I can't really make heads or tails of what your motivations are (even with the added knowledge of your play style in relation to your role in MV). But it WILL raise an eyebrow from me who continue to use the death of Hockey Monkey either to support a vote for you, or to reason why they are not voting for you. That all said, you're high on my list of people I need to do further investigation on.
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Death By Irony
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 8:56:53 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Jul 31, 2007 8:56:53 GMT -5
1) What exactly is eyebrow-raising about my discussion of Genius strategy? In all the games I've participated in I've been anxious to examine all sides of a question like this, whether or not it makes me look bad; and I thought all I was saying is that the Genii might be better able to play for a solo win in this game than, say, the Masons could in M3. It hardly makes the Genii public enemy #1, as I thought was obvious. It was just a "huh, why is he suggesting that Geniuses might be anti-town?" kinda thing. Not really suspicious, just a little something that made me look at the rest of your posts a little closer. 2) dnooman - at the time it looked like one or two votes weren't going to wake him up, and he had plenty of company on three votes so it's hardly like I was just seizing the opportunity to lynch a lurker. I was fully prepared to unvote him once he showed up although as matters fell out his previous voters unvoted him before I could. I still maintain that it was sticking another pin in him that woke him up, but plainly that's unverifiable. Assuming that dnooman just plain wasn't available at the time, it seemed kind of opportunistic. (Of course, this could be part of dnooman's devious strategy to make you look bad... ;D) 3) Yes, I suppose it's my fault in a way - if I was starting to gather suspicion on Day One then I imagine it's elementary scum strategy to bump off one of my detractors in order to net themselves a nice safe lynch on Day Two. But (advocating both sides of the argument again!) it could be a ballsy move on the part of the scum if I were one, reasoning that the town will never think the scum would dare be so blatant. At this point I'm really thinking I should have spent a year or two building up immunity to iocaine powder. Like I said, I'm not blaming you...yet. It just doesn't look all that great for you given that you were pretty much #1 on Hockeymonkey's list and she died overnight. (And yes, it could go either way right now, too. See my signature file.) Yeah I need to take the game less seriously and not worry too much about "lynching" people. ;D
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 9:38:08 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Jul 31, 2007 9:38:08 GMT -5
I agree with storyteller's analysis of how we can never know why hockeymonkey was selected; not only is it a waste of time to try to figure it out, but it's a good way for scum to elbow in and distract us.
I am still suspicious of Malacandra for the same reasons I was yesterDay.
MHaye's lengthy pre-gallows post about drainbead - this doesn't seem so scummy to me. If it were me, I would have spent ages composing the post (he probably started writing it well before the bandwagon had collected so much steam) and posted it anway. I confess it initially rang quite towny but I'll go back and go over it again, this time assuming that he is scum.
Also I'd like to know why dotchan didn't vote.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 9:44:52 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Jul 31, 2007 9:44:52 GMT -5
I'd edit my post above if I could to remove the part about why dotchan didn't vote, because I thought I remembered someone saying that she didn't, but I see she did, early yesterDay, so I will retract that until I figure out what's up.
sorry for the confusion, folks, I have a bad habit of skimming the thread and posting and then rereading thoroughly, so I make mistakes of memory. Just trying to keep up.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 9:58:41 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Jul 31, 2007 9:58:41 GMT -5
and just reading over the last 25 or so of Hockey's posts seems to show that she had posted the fact that she was keeping a detailed list of voting habits, which she showed to us all. And during day one, she was very anti-Malacandra instead of joining the Dnoowagon or the Drainwagon (though she did agree that Drainbead was a scummy looking suspect, she felt more inclined to go after Malacandra)....
And for that. Malacandra say hello to my FOS. FOS play nice with Malacandra
Hockey Monkey never had a chance to investigate anyone; her first Day suspicion of Malacandra has literally no more basis than anyone else's. This is either careless, or a scummy attempt to refocus attention on a Day 1 target by hiding behind a confirmed power role.
I'm guessing the latter. And since I'm starting to feel like the FoS is a bit of a cop out, how's about we go directly to:
vote Roosh
(subject to change) I am curious about this vote Mr.Teller. I am not defending Roosh cause I have seen some posts that struck me as HazelNutty(odd),but Roosh did cast the second vote for Drain and left it there.What are your thoughts on that?
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 10:02:41 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Jul 31, 2007 10:02:41 GMT -5
(snip) Digget - One small note, if GreedySmurf turns up town, I think Diggit might be scum by the way he jumped on the wagon. (snip) Now that I think about it, another question: I "jumped on the wagon" (your words) on the strength of your accusations against GreedySmurf (I said as much in this post ). (snip) And since JSexton has made a pretty compelling argument against GreedySmurf, so I'll vote GreedySmurf (snip) My guess is that you made your arguments hoping to convince someone else. Why do you, once you achieved that effect, turn around and cast suspicions on the person that got convinced by your post? It was the manner in which you did so. The others that generally agreed with me also tended to disagree with one or more points, or ask for clarification, which showed that they were considering it objectively. Not you, though, you just jumped right on with an enthusiastic "me too!" Thing is, it'd be easy to slip onto a bandwagon on a townie that way, then point at me when (if) Greedy turned up town. As I said, a small thing. I'm not unilaterally declaring you scum. But it's worth noting.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 10:08:25 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Jul 31, 2007 10:08:25 GMT -5
Malacandra - Lots of attention here. the dnooman vote did seem like an attempt to derail DrainBead's lynch. Then, later, Mal votes GreedySmurf even while acknowledges that DB is probably the better lynch. Wow. Scum. vote: Malacandra Sorry, is that quite fair? I guess a vote for DrainBead would look like trying to save my own neck, so I'd better not. Is that a bad reason for not voting for DrainBead? Yes. It is. Remember what storyteller said yesterday? "Vote for who you think is scum." See, again, you're more concerned with your own neck than with finding scum. This reads as though you thought Drain was the best place for your vote, but you didn't, because you thought that if you were wrong, you'd be lynched the next day. You apparently forget that if drain gets mislynched, there's probably 7 or more other players on the wagon with you. That kind of self-awareness is scum motivated. Townies really don't worry that much.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 10:30:44 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jul 31, 2007 10:30:44 GMT -5
It was the manner in which you did so. The others that generally agreed with me also tended to disagree with one or more points, or ask for clarification, which showed that they were considering it objectively. Not you, though, you just jumped right on with an enthusiastic "me too!" Thing is, it'd be easy to slip onto a bandwagon on a townie that way, then point at me when (if) Greedy turned up town. (snip) Let me get this straight: you think it's all right to agree with you... as long as one disagrees on at least point? And this on a "bandwagon" on someone whose alignment we don't know yet?
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 10:34:05 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jul 31, 2007 10:34:05 GMT -5
Sorry, is that quite fair? Is that a bad reason for not voting for DrainBead? Yes. It is. Remember what storyteller said yesterday? "Vote for who you think is scum." See, again, you're more concerned with your own neck than with finding scum. This reads as though you thought Drain was the best place for your vote, but you didn't, because you thought that if you were wrong, you'd be lynched the next day. You apparently forget that if drain gets mislynched, there's probably 7 or more other players on the wagon with you. That kind of self-awareness is scum motivated. Townies really don't worry that much. 1) I didn't think Drainbead was scum. I saw no grounds to. A number of other people evidently disagreed, and we got lucky. 2) So by the same token it's not a question of being "more concerned with saving {my} own neck than finding scum", because that would argue that I thought hanging Drainbead would be finding scum. As repeatedly stated, I didn't. Also, being an innocent townie, why should I be eager to see myself swing? I thought that Drainbead was more likely town than not, but on the other hand, I knew damn well that I was and am! Getting hanged doesn't affect my own chances of winning, since I can still win with the town despite being dead, but it affects the chances of the town win in which I hope to share. Therefore, to be hanged when I might manage not to be is not good play. I had no reason to think Drain was the best place for my vote, but I did think that a vote for Drain would be likely to get me hanged the next Day if she were town - more so than the other players who voted for her, because I would be the one being talked up as doing it to save my own neck. As to your last statement, "Townies don't do such and such" is invalid if I'm a Townie and do do it. You then have to argue "Ah, but no true Townie would do that".
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 10:39:40 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 31, 2007 10:39:40 GMT -5
Hockey Monkey never had a chance to investigate anyone; her first Day suspicion of Malacandra has literally no more basis than anyone else's. This is either careless, or a scummy attempt to refocus attention on a Day 1 target by hiding behind a confirmed power role.
I'm guessing the latter. And since I'm starting to feel like the FoS is a bit of a cop out, how's about we go directly to:
vote Roosh
(subject to change) I am curious about this vote Mr.Teller. I am not defending Roosh cause I have seen some posts that struck me as HazelNutty(odd),but Roosh did cast the second vote for Drain and left it there.What are your thoughts on that? Fair question, one I don't want to answer until I've re-examined his entire participation Day 1; his vote - and the fact that it remained in place for the rest of the Day - has a context. Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to give any kind of involved analysis until tomorrow (real life tomorrow, ie, Wednesday, August 1). I'm taking two days off work next week (Nothing that will negatively affect my participation in the game, btw - I'll be "vacationing" at home, while the wife and daughter are out of town, so if anything I may post more often over the exetnded weekend). I am frantically trying to wrap up some work projects here and so have time only for a few one-off posts until tomorrow.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 10:53:45 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jul 31, 2007 10:53:45 GMT -5
Ok, I'm becoming a bit less suspicious of Mal as time goes on for one reason and another, but much more suspicious of a couple of other players. My vote for Mal yesterday was a 'greater evil' vote-- I was not convinced of anyone either way but he smelled the most-off to me (chalk my later-in-the-day vote up to this uncertainty). Today, however, a few new players have jumped towards Mal with no better reasoning than I had yesterday-- is he the new easy lynch 'o the day? Like, Dotchan, why no vote at all yesterday and such a fast vote for Mal today? (apropos your earlier characterisation, Dotchan, I'm not 'calling people out', I'm calling YOU out, so you notice it quite vividly, I'm sure). Unfortunately I can't post a long analysis until later today- real life intervenes.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 10:59:56 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Jul 31, 2007 10:59:56 GMT -5
... catching up, applying Day 2 eyes to Day 1 posts ... drainbead said This makes MTS look a bit towny to me, I can't imagine why she would have said that about a fellow scum. She also says in 1.264: Would a scum say such a thing about someone she knew to be townie? I'm leaning "no" but would like to hear what y'all think. Roosh also seems towny. storyteller first voted for drainbead and it was Roosh who filled out the argument here. That's what really got the bandwagon going and I can't see scum doing such a thing. Altho, Roosh, I'm not vibing your FOS on JSexton. Is it still there? if so, would you mind reiterating your reasons? or was it just because of his persecution of Greedy? diggitcamera post 1.259: This was the first substantial post he made, and it looks quite bandwagonny to me. FOS diggitcamera. And I'd still like to hear from dnooman.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 11:06:43 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Jul 31, 2007 11:06:43 GMT -5
It was the manner in which you did so. The others that generally agreed with me also tended to disagree with one or more points, or ask for clarification, which showed that they were considering it objectively. Not you, though, you just jumped right on with an enthusiastic "me too!" Thing is, it'd be easy to slip onto a bandwagon on a townie that way, then point at me when (if) Greedy turned up town. (snip) Let me get this straight: you think it's all right to agree with you... as long as one disagrees on at least point? Let me get this straight: you think it's not all right to analyze someone's motivation for a post/vote? Bandwagons, by definition, are on people who alignments are unknown.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 11:10:18 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Jul 31, 2007 11:10:18 GMT -5
Yes. It is. Remember what storyteller said yesterday? "Vote for who you think is scum." See, again, you're more concerned with your own neck than with finding scum. This reads as though you thought Drain was the best place for your vote, but you didn't, because you thought that if you were wrong, you'd be lynched the next day. You apparently forget that if drain gets mislynched, there's probably 7 or more other players on the wagon with you. That kind of self-awareness is scum motivated. Townies really don't worry that much. 1) I didn't think Drainbead was scum. I saw no grounds to. A number of other people evidently disagreed, and we got lucky. Do you not see a giant contradiction here? If you didn't think she was scum, then why on earth were you contemplating voting for her? No, my response is that we have only your word about your alignment, and I don't actually believe you right now.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 11:16:40 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jul 31, 2007 11:16:40 GMT -5
Let me get this straight: you think it's all right to agree with you... as long as one disagrees on at least point? Let me get this straight: you think it's not all right to analyze someone's motivation for a post/vote? Bandwagons, by definition, are on people who alignments are unknown. Of course I think it's right to analyze someone's motivation for a post/vote. However, picking on someone who: 1. Agreed with you and 2. Didn't have qualms with your reasoning seems strange to me. And of course bandwagons, at the time of their forming, are on people whose alignment is unknown. It seems to me, therefore, that unless the alignment of the bandwagonee is know (after his Death, for instance, or after a credible roleclaim, or a successful investigation), casting suspicion on anyone on that bandwagon simply adds another unknown to the equation.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 11:50:09 GMT -5
Post by nesta on Jul 31, 2007 11:50:09 GMT -5
She also says in 1.264: Would a scum say such a thing about someone she knew to be townie? I'm leaning "no" but would like to hear what y'all think. I think scum are very likely to defend townies, especially if they think there's a good chance that townie will end up dead soon. It's an easy way to gain a little trust because we expect scum to accuse townies of being scum, not defend them. Of course, this has now turned around (especially since storyteller used this well in M2) and defense now seems a little scummy. I do think that scum defending a townie in order to seem less scummy is a mistake that newbie scum will make. I would expect this to be much more subtle from experienced players, though. That post was one of the bigger scum tells that convinced me drainbead was more likely to be scum than anyone else Yesterday, and lessens my suspicions of Greedy Smurf a little. Roosh also seems towny. storyteller first voted for drainbead and it was Roosh who filled out the argument here. That's what really got the bandwagon going and I can't see scum doing such a thing. True, storyteller's and Roosh's case against drainbead are marks in their favor. I have a small suspicion that the scum might have been offering up one of their own to gain townie cred, so I'm still a little wary of both of them. Roosh particularly has had some very townie moments, but also some that have pinged my scumdar. Altho, Roosh, I'm not vibing your FOS on JSexton. Is it still there? if so, would you mind reiterating your reasons? or was it just because of his persecution of Greedy? I think the gist of his theory is that the Greedy Smurf bandwagon was meant to swing votes away from drainbead, and JSexton started the Greedy Smurf bandwagon, so he is likely to be scum. I actually like this theory, and I admit it did help influence me to vote for drainbead in part to see if that theory might be correct. As I said above, though, I'm trying to approach it objectively and not consider JSexton scum just because of it, since that could have been one of the objectives if drainbead was offered up purposefully Yesterday.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 11:54:34 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jul 31, 2007 11:54:34 GMT -5
1) I didn't think Drainbead was scum. I saw no grounds to. A number of other people evidently disagreed, and we got lucky. Do you not see a giant contradiction here? If you didn't think she was scum, then why on earth were you contemplating voting for her? No, my response is that we have only your word about your alignment, and I don't actually believe you right now. Dude, it was Day One, and you have to vote for someone... Actually, do you? The position I was in, being second in the poll (at the time I voted), I could... ...Vote for Drainbead, and have it spun as an obvious attempt to dodge the noose myself <-- scum tell ...Vote for someone else, and have it spun as an obvious attempt to avoid the previous scum tell <-- scum tell ...Vote for no-one, and have it spun as an obvious attempt not to give information about my alignment <-- scum tell. In other words, and unless I'm misunderstanding your position, I was damned whatever I did - depending on how it's going to be spun, of course.
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Day Two
Jul 31, 2007 12:08:30 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Jul 31, 2007 12:08:30 GMT -5
Does the insert quote function only work on the thread you are in? I can't insert a quote from Day1 over into Day2.
Anyhoo,after rereading drain's posts from Day1, I noticed the very last three she made(while living) are concerning dnooman... and seems to be defending him. Noob mistake in trying to clear suspicion of fellow scum dnoo, or trying to set him up and take down an innocent with her?
Also,her lack of defense for herself is curious.She seemed resigned to her fate,almost like it was pre-arranged.
Whadda ya'll think?
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