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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 17, 2007 18:21:03 GMT -5
sorry
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 18:22:42 GMT -5
So since one of us will likely die tonight (town's town. Shrug). . . some crackpot theories for your consideration.
So basically yesterday we decided to run with it, and knew afterwards that by being so hands-on we'd probably left a trail and that one of us might die last night. Alas. Didn't think it would be dnooman. . .
Yesterday we were torn about our top suspects-- Nesta was a fan of JSexton being scum and I was a fan of the Malscum theory. We decided to try both out and see who jumped on board. It wasn't very surprising to me, but unfortunately the Jsexton theory didn't work out well but we learned a lot by watching who jumped where.
The goings-on in the last 85 hours of the Day strengthened my hunches, and I hypothesized that toDay, if we'd been on to something, that scum would go pro-active and on the offensive and try to railroad a coordinated attack on someone that we thought was really townie but who tends to get into trouble-- Greedy, Dot, or Roosh-- an easy target. I thought they'd glom onto something like Roosh's missed vote yesterday and try to run with it.
So todays events are amusing to me, at least. It's like I unknowingly wrote the basic script, if our main theories are correct.
More on this in the next post.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 18:24:16 GMT -5
CAPY! You realize that you just split the doctors protection for the night giving the scum 50% better odds of taking one of you out? We need the feakin' geniuses to stay alive! Can't really agree with you on that one. I'm starting to ask myself: most players have agreed (in the past, at least), that the scum tend to separate their votes to avoid being identified as a group. You geniuses, obviously, didn't adhere to that doctrine. However, in that sense, the best separation the psychopath's could have achieved would be: 1 vote for scum 1 vote for non-scum 1 abstainee Does that sound about right?
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 18:29:53 GMT -5
CAPY! You realize that you just split the doctors protection for the night giving the scum 50% better odds of taking one of you out? We need the feakin' geniuses to stay alive! Can't really agree with you on that one. I'm starting to ask myself: most players have agreed (in the past, at least), that the scum tend to separate their votes to avoid being identified as a group. You geniuses, obviously, didn't adhere to that doctrine. However, in that sense, the best separation the psychopath's could have achieved would be: 1 vote for scum 1 vote for non-scum 1 abstainee Does that sound about right? Not edited to add: I'm talking, as usual, about Day 1
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 18:31:39 GMT -5
Well,guess I won't be voting for you tomorrow after all Capy.
I was gonna ask you this tomorrow, but since you claimed...
Why are you so adamant that Dotchan's post isn't scummy? It seems you don't even want to consider the possibility it is a blunder by a scum.
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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 17, 2007 18:33:07 GMT -5
CAPY! You realize that you just split the doctors protection for the night giving the scum 50% better odds of taking one of you out? We need the feakin' geniuses to stay alive! Can't really agree with you on that one. Can't agree with me about needing the geniuses to stay alive? I don't follow.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 18:36:15 GMT -5
I'm starting to ask myself: most players have agreed (in the past, at least), that the scum tend to separate their votes to avoid being identified as a group. You geniuses, obviously, didn't adhere to that doctrine. Well, we did a little. I voted with dnooman on Day 1 and 2, but we decided it would be best to split that up on Day 3. That was OK because they weren't really behind my JSexton theory anyway. Maybe we didn't do it enough, though. I think the block vote for Mal (now NAF) between capy and dnooman almost surely would have led the scum to capy tonight. However, in that sense, the best separation the psychopath's could have achieved would be: 1 vote for scum 1 vote for non-scum 1 abstainee Does that sound about right? I'm not quite sure I follow you here. What Day are you referring to? And you seem to be saying there's only three scum left. Do you know something we don't?
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 18:42:02 GMT -5
Can't really agree with you on that one. Can't agree with me about needing the geniuses to stay alive? I don't follow. The geniuses are no longer anything but confirmed townies.They really don't have any more importance than the rest of us at this point(If they are the last two).
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 18:43:36 GMT -5
I think it sounds *exactly* right. Actually 2 votes for non-scum, 2 votes for 2 separate scum, and one abstainee.
NAF, you wanted most-suspected lists. Here we go, but I don't think you'll like parts of it.
I has a theory.
---------------------- The Passion of the Drainbead, redux.
Re: what went wrong on Day 1 for the scum. A hypothetical elaboration on my earlier " 'Mal-wagon as scum alternative' is bullshit' theory.
This involves a theoretical cast of scum, Drain, Mal, Diggit, Mad, and Pygmy. Who happen to be my top list.
At the time that Mad votes, early on (Reply #241 on Jul 27, 2007, 7:39am), it's all over the place. A safe vote for another scum at that time.
At the time Drain votes for Mal (somewhere in the 280s), things are still all over the place and it looks like a safe vote for fellow scum. She posts a couple more times but is gone after things look dire. I think perhaps she simply wasn't around.
Near the end of the day I imagine voices in the scum thread going "Guys! Guys? Anyone?"
Then Mal and Drain get a heap of votes in quick succession,and all of them, I believe, town. A few votes fall on Greedy, including Mal's-- what else can he do? If he's scum, his death vs Drain's is equal. Good town cred by not putting a nail in her coffin.
Pygmy places his vote basically in reserve. ----------------- Snapshot: drainbead (7) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman, nesta
Malacandra (5) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, mhaye, capybara
GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger ------------------- To save Drain, someone else needs at least 2 votes. . actually GREEDY must gather two votes. Drain's wagon is primarily town-- especially the late votes-- as is Mal's. We know this to be true.
Where are the scum? Drain-- hasn't posted since God knows when-- her vote on Mal may simply have not been able to move since she was absent. Mad hasn't posted since God knows when, either.
So this makes possible scum votes on Greedy that can't move-- Greedy's the only chance but to the sadness of the scum almost all the votes are distributed between two scum wagons and town just aren't jumping on the right wagon.
The only free extra scum vote left in reserve, it becomes clear, can't help, so it might as well lie neutral looking.
With Mad's vote on Drain since the start and not moving, and Drain's early vote on Mal not moving there is nothing they can do. They have no control over it-- no 'sacrifice of Drain' decision needed for this theory.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 18:43:56 GMT -5
(snip) However, in that sense, the best separation the psychopath's could have achieved would be: 1 vote for scum 1 vote for non-scum 1 abstainee Does that sound about right? I'm not quite sure I follow you here. What Day are you referring to? And you seem to be saying there's only three scum left. Do you know something we don't? I noticed the first point myself. Day 1, if you haven't seen my follow-up post yet. There are a lot of theories as to the number of scum left, however I have 2 reasons to believe there were four initially: 1. The original number of geniuses(masons) + 1 2. dotchan's slip (one dead + dotchan + 2 more
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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 17, 2007 18:49:01 GMT -5
I am going home from work for the Day guys. I can't post much on weekends (and M5 is going to get my priority sorry) though I do still have questions.
I too want to know the answer to the question Mad just asked. Capy, if you are just a genius (and I believe you are) why are you so sure that you are right? You are making the facts fit your theories rather than basing your theories on the facts, and that is a bad way to go. Your posts toDay and the ideas they express, I believe, have been on the whole, bad for the town.
And with that, I am off.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 18:49:15 GMT -5
Well,guess I won't be voting for you tomorrow after all Capy. I was gonna ask you this tomorrow, but since you claimed... Why are you so adamant that Dotchan's post isn't scummy? It seems you don't even want to consider the possibility it is a blunder by a scum. It seems to me that in this case most of the more "experienced" players look at it as a pretty damning post. The open question of course is: why didn't dotchan try to save drainbead? Why didn't she abstain from abstaining? I'll have to take a closer look at her actions during Day 1.
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 19:00:46 GMT -5
I think I'll wait for people I haven't minutes before accused of being scum to critique my thoughts and tell me whether this is all bad for the town. Night night.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 19:22:21 GMT -5
Well,guess I won't be voting for you tomorrow after all Capy. I was gonna ask you this tomorrow, but since you claimed... Why are you so adamant that Dotchan's post isn't scummy? It seems you don't even want to consider the possibility it is a blunder by a scum. It seems to me that in this case most of the more "experienced" players look at it as a pretty damning post. The open question of course is: why didn't dotchan try to save drainbead? Why didn't she abstain from abstaining? I'll have to take a closer look at her actions during Day 1. And here's my answer. At the time of the linked vote-count it was a neck-to-neck race between 3 Players: drainbead (6) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman Malacandra (5) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, mhaye, capybara GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra (snip) I could understand a psycchopath withholding her vote. But shortly afterward nesta voted. For drainbead. dotchan's vote at that time would either have doomed drainbead or (probably) looked pretty bad for her once drainbead's alignment had been revealed. MHaye's votechange settled the matter for good.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 19:24:29 GMT -5
I too want to know the answer to the question Mad just asked. Capy, if you are just a genius (and I believe you are) why are you so sure that you are right? You are making the facts fit your theories rather than basing your theories on the facts, and that is a bad way to go. Your posts toDay and the ideas they express, I believe, have been on the whole, bad for the town. Come on NAF. Capy isn't any more sure she's right than the rest of us. We all have theories. The fact that we're geniuses/masons doesn't make us any more right, but it does mean that now we have a huge target on our back so we need to get our thoughts out there Today before we die. I don't understand why you think Capy's ideas and posts are bad for the town. Because it implicates you? Capy could be wrong, and I wouldn't be surprised if she is, but it's a good theory and one that should be discussed. Looking back at the voting record and what might have been the motivation behind it is exactly what we should be doing.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 19:37:37 GMT -5
I noticed the first point myself. Day 1, if you haven't seen my follow-up post yet. There are a lot of theories as to the number of scum left, however I have 2 reasons to believe there were four initially: 1. The original number of geniuses(masons) + 1 2. dotchan's slip (one dead + dotchan + 2 more I really hope it was 4 scum to start with, for the town's sake, but we don't really know at this point (at least most of us don't). I'm not sure the count is very important Today anyway, other than we know it's coming down to the wire and getting very important we lynch scum, but it's like that regardless of the actual number of scum. I still don't quite understand your point, other than you think dotchan not voting was scummy. I'm confused that you only have 3 scum on your list, but you say you think there were 4 on Day 1. Where was the other one?
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 19:47:04 GMT -5
I noticed the first point myself. Day 1, if you haven't seen my follow-up post yet. There are a lot of theories as to the number of scum left, however I have 2 reasons to believe there were four initially: 1. The original number of geniuses(masons) + 1 2. dotchan's slip (one dead + dotchan + 2 more (snip) I still don't quite understand your point, other than you think dotchan not voting was scummy. I'm confused that you only have 3 scum on your list, but you say you think there were 4 on Day 1. Where was the other one? ...ummm... did you miss the whole " dotchan infamous post" brewhaha? She mentioned, in that post, 2 other scum. Which means: dotchan + drainbead (dead) + 2 other scum 4 scum The other point (number 1 in my original post) assumes there is one less mason/genius at the beginning than there are scum/psychopath's. I could be wrong of course, but there you are.
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 19:49:27 GMT -5
Why are you so adamant that Dotchan's post isn't scummy? It seems you don't even want to consider the possibility it is a blunder by a scum. I need to do the Friday night thing but to answer this: Dotchan's statement well well indeed be a scum slip. In the end I may indeed be wrong. However, I'm basing my thoughts today on the whole pattern of the game: Dotchan has consistently seemed town noob to me who has a bad habit of thinking once and posting six times to clarify something she should have been more careful about phrasing. My suspicions are strong and based on the voting record and events overall and condemning a person on a very important Day based on two words that seem to me very vague seems very iffy looking: again, ooh, shiny. And this is timed very well to draw attention away from other possible candidates. You can't blame me for thinking it looks strange.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 19:50:38 GMT -5
I noticed the first point myself. Day 1, if you haven't seen my follow-up post yet. There are a lot of theories as to the number of scum left, however I have 2 reasons to believe there were four initially: 1. The original number of geniuses(masons) + 1 2. dotchan's slip (one dead + dotchan + 2 more (snip) I still don't quite understand your point, other than you think dotchan not voting was scummy. (snip) Her non-vote on Day 1 actually puzzled me. She could (conceivably) have saved drainbead with her vote. However when I looked at that Day's events, I could see a reasonable explanation for her non-vote. Reasonable, of course, if you assume she is a psychopath herself.
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 17, 2007 20:05:49 GMT -5
*checks back on capy's, dnooman's and nesta's posts*
Huh. Wow. Okay.
*puts capy and nesta on the "Confirmed Town" list*
And just in case I dindn't make myself clear enough, nesta is officially un-FoSed.
Again, this board so needs a face-smacking emote.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 20:15:20 GMT -5
Wait a minute. I don't think you're being fair, or even honest. You're making it sound like I'm ignoring pygmy, or dismissing him. But in my very long post near the bottom of page 2, I distinctly say that I thought two players were scummy - you and pygmy. And the "pygmy vs. storyteller feud" to which you allude did not break out shortly after you called us scum - it began with my post, at the bottom of page 2, to which both you and pygmy separately took exception. As far as finding you scummier than pygmy, I was wrong, but I don't apologize for it. In my experience, trying to manipulate an outcome while trying to avoid the appearance of manipulating that outcome is a bit more worrisome than a more direct approach. I believe I have consistently said these things, and the fact that I was wrong about you in particular does not change my opinion on them in general. I was being honest, but as I said I don't think I was being very fair, and I did apologize for that. As you pointed out I made a few (honest) mistakes, though. Yes, you did address pygmy in the post you voted for me, and I admit that wasn't the part of your post that stuck out to me, but rather where you decided to cut pygmy a little slack and vote for me instead. At least that's how I took it, but I think too much emotion was involved there on my part. As for your vote for me over pygmy, I still think her reaction was scummier than mine, but I am biased. I don't expect you to apologize for it. Quite the opposite. This is a game after all. Your take on my possible scumminess is fair whether you're town or scum. And now you have my in a stupid bind, because in spite of the fact that I brought up pygmy rugger as potentially scummy before anyone else did, and said that he was my number two suspect, if I vote for him it looks like I'm backtracking because of the way you've misinterpreted my actions. But you know what? Vote for who you think is most likely to be scum. For me, right now, that means a vote for pygmy rugger
Putting people in a bind is what this game is all about, though as town I hope to only do it to scum. I'm reconsidering my suspicion of you a little. I still think you could be scum, but I'm nowhere near as convinced as I was yesterday. I fell into the OMGUS trap, and since you were already on my radar your vote seemed to confirm my suspicion.
You're a good player, and I might be a little hyper-sensitive to that and end up a little more suspicious of you by default than I am of everyone else. I'm not sure that's such a bad thing, unless it leads to rash decisions, and I think I jumped the gun on accusing you of being scum before I could back that feeling up.
I'm wrong a lot, and do stupid things often. My only saving grace is that I try to admit it when it happens.
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 20:19:18 GMT -5
Oh, and "why am I posting my harebrained theories for everyone to see"?
Because I can.
Nesta and I are the only town who are able to analyze and theorize with impunity for the town's benefit--we don't have to worry about the scum starting a lynch wagon on us if we post something that's unpopular with them, and we don't have to worry about phrasing something so delicately that we self-censor our thoughts out of existence.
Accept or reject my theories, but I'm not going to shut up "for the good of the town", because half the time at least I suspect "for the good of the town" is an argument for something else. All information is good information for the town.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 20:22:44 GMT -5
(snip) I still don't quite understand your point, other than you think dotchan not voting was scummy. I'm confused that you only have 3 scum on your list, but you say you think there were 4 on Day 1. Where was the other one? ...ummm... did you miss the whole " dotchan infamous post" brewhaha? She mentioned, in that post, 2 other scum. Which means: dotchan + drainbead (dead) + 2 other scum 4 scum The other point (number 1 in my original post) assumes there is one less mason/genius at the beginning than there are scum/psychopath's. I could be wrong of course, but there you are. I think you're missing the source of my confusion or I'm being dense. You said: You geniuses, obviously, didn't adhere to that doctrine. However, in that sense, the best separation the psychopath's could have achieved would be: 1 vote for scum 1 vote for non-scum 1 abstainee Does that sound about right? You say this is about Day 1. 1+1+1=3. There were at least 4 scum on Day 1. I'm curious where you think the 4th vote was in your theory of scum not wanting to group their votes.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 20:29:27 GMT -5
...ummm... did you miss the whole " dotchan infamous post" brewhaha? She mentioned, in that post, 2 other scum. Which means: dotchan + drainbead (dead) + 2 other scum 4 scum The other point (number 1 in my original post) assumes there is one less mason/genius at the beginning than there are scum/psychopath's. I could be wrong of course, but there you are. I think you're missing the source of my confusion or I'm being dense. You said: You geniuses, obviously, didn't adhere to that doctrine. However, in that sense, the best separation the psychopath's could have achieved would be: 1 vote for scum 1 vote for non-scum 1 abstainee Does that sound about right? You say this is about Day 1. 1+1+1=3. There were at least 4 scum on Day 1. I'm curious where you think the 4th vote was in your theory of scum not wanting to group their votes. Well... Have you considered the possibility that I'm dense? I didn't consider dotchan's vote in that equation because it could easily be explained away (in the sense of "well, she voted for Malacandra because, at the time it was the only candidate who could conceivably have saved her neck"). I didn't say who I thought were the other scum on Day 1 (except, possibly, dotchan). In that sense, I was saying: well, we have dotchan abstaining, one voting for her, one voting for someone else and dotchan could vote for whomever, since her neck was on the line.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 20:40:31 GMT -5
I didn't consider dotchan's vote in that equation because it could easily be explained away (in the sense of "well, she voted for Malacandra because, at the time it was the only candidate who could conceivably have saved her neck"). I didn't say who I thought were the other scum on Day 1 (except, possibly, dotchan). In that sense, I was saying: well, we have dotchan abstaining, one voting for her, one voting for someone else and dotchan could vote for whomever, since her neck was on the line. You've confused me again. I think you've conflated dotchan and drainbead, but I'm not sure. Who was voting for who, and who's neck was on the line?
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 20:41:13 GMT -5
Bah, I even previewed. I hate typos.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 21:01:14 GMT -5
I didn't consider dotchan's vote in that equation because it could easily be explained away (in the sense of "well, she voted for Malacandra because, at the time it was the only candidate who could conceivably have saved her neck"). I didn't say who I thought were the other scum on Day 1 (except, possibly, dotchan). In that sense, I was saying: well, we have dotchan abstaining, one voting for her, one voting for someone else and dotchan could vote for whomever, since her neck was on the line. You've confused me again. I think you've conflated dotchan and drainbead, but I'm not sure. Who was voting for who, and who's neck was on the line? Yeah, I'm kind of dyslectic that way... Basically: 1. On Day 1 dotchan didn't vote 2. Looking back at Day 1 the reason she didn't vote seems to have been that she was waiting for just the right moment to save drainbead, but that moment didn't arrive 3. The distribution of all psychopath's votes (except for drainbead's, whose neck was on the line) would look "evenly" distributed: 1 abstainee, 1 for drainbead and 1 for anyone else 4. drainbead's vote + the other psychopath's votes equals 4
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 21:23:12 GMT -5
I think I'll wait for people I haven't minutes before accused of being scum to critique my thoughts and tell me whether this is all bad for the town. Night night. Some of your suspicions may be right,in fact, out of the four you mentioned in your post, at least one is probably scum.Not that far of a stretch with 11 of us left. What you are doing now though is certainly bad for the town.You have a player that, you yourself said, takes six posts to say what she shoulda said in the first one but its ok cause she is new... and you dismiss the biggest scum tell I have seen in all the games I have played as very vague. "THE OTHER TWO SCUM" is not something I would call vague. Especially since earlier this Day Dot was basing her posts on 4 or 5 scum remaining(which, I might add, is something the scum would want us to think to draw power roles out) Think about it Capy.Take off your blinders and think.Put your theory on the side for a minute and think.Forget your dislike of me and think.Forget that you (wrongly) think I am scum. Imagine, if you will, it wasn't me that pointed out the 2 scum post,but one of your more trusted(cause someone would have for sure) ,if you can clear your mind that much, and decide what impact that would have had on you. I think you would have agreed with them. Sometimes theories are wrong Cap(believe me, I should know). I really don't think Capy is gonna change her mind unfortunately as she has always seemed set in her ways,but Nesta, what are your thoughts on the 2 scum post?
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 21:28:36 GMT -5
OK, I understand now. You left out drainbead in your theory of where the scum voted. I don't agree that dotchan's lack of a vote implicates her. She was around with enough time to vote. The next to last post of the day was from her. I'll quote it: Maybe because I'm contrary (or dumb), I just don't see the so-called scum tells. My own experience tells me that sometimes townies will accidentally (or purposely) say eyebrow raising things to stir up discussion and lure scum out of the woodwork. And though we are short on time, I'm not going to vote for the sake of voting. She could have voted for drainbead saying she agreed with the scum tells and gained a little townie cred. Instead she says she doesn't see them (though doesn't really specify if she was talking about drainbead or someone else). There wasn't enough time left for real townies to switch their votes so that defense just makes her look bad. I don't see scum doing this, even newbie scum.
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 21:32:12 GMT -5
Oh, hell. If I may draw our attention to Day One again for hoots for some obvious observations.
Day One
drainbead (8) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman, nesta, mhaye
GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra
Malacandra (4) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, capybara
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger
Who is not on the Drain Wagon that is not certified town? Pygmy, Mal, Diggit, Greedy, Dotchan. Five total players.
If none of these people are scum, then it means that all three or four or five scum other than Drain voted for Drain. This is the "Drain on an altar atop a Mayan pyramid" theory that Mad's dental fillings suggested to him some time ago. Let us reexamine the likelihood of this scenario.
How many scum do we suspect voted for Drain? Then do some math. Then we can quibble over which of those players we think is scum. I'm willing to believe that one or two scum voted for Drain, but more than that?
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