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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 21:34:32 GMT -5
Whoops-- remove Greedy Smurf from that list. Brain aneurysm. Sheesh!
I.e.: Who is not on the Drain Wagon that is not certified town? Pygmy, Mal, Diggit, Dotchan. Four total players.
Et cetera.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 21:35:13 GMT -5
I really don't think Capy is gonna change her mind unfortunately as she has always seemed set in her ways,but Nesta, what are your thoughts on the 2 scum post? Your post wasn't there when I just defended dotchan for the non-vote on Day 1. I'll go re-read her post that you think was a major slip-up. I'll admit my bias before even reading it: I've had a town read on dotchan so far, but if it makes you feel any better, for better or worse, I've also had a town read on you Mad. My town feelings about you are starting to ebb a little now that you are so insistent we lynch someone based on something that I didn't find extremely scummy the first time I read it, though.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 21:42:35 GMT -5
OK, I understand now. You left out drainbead in your theory of where the scum voted. I don't agree that dotchan's lack of a vote implicates her. She was around with enough time to vote. The next to last post of the day was from her. I'll quote it: Maybe because I'm contrary (or dumb), I just don't see the so-called scum tells. My own experience tells me that sometimes townies will accidentally (or purposely) say eyebrow raising things to stir up discussion and lure scum out of the woodwork. And though we are short on time, I'm not going to vote for the sake of voting. She could have voted for drainbead saying she agreed with the scum tells and gained a little townie cred. Instead she says she doesn't see them (though doesn't really specify if she was talking about drainbead or someone else). There wasn't enough time left for real townies to switch their votes so that defense just makes her look bad. I don't see scum doing this, even newbie scum. Maybe. But the post you quote was posted 4 minutes before Idle finished the Day. Mhaye's vote change (which effectively ended drainbead's chances) had happened just 15 minutes before. If the psychopaths had discussed using her vote to deflect drainbead's death (which is my assumption, anyway), she as a newbie would have been left, standing without a clue as to what to do... and decided not to vote.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 21:53:16 GMT -5
Whoops-- remove Greedy Smurf from that list. Brain aneurysm. Sheesh! I.e.: Who is not on the Drain Wagon that is not certified town? Pygmy, Mal, Diggit, Dotchan. Four total players. Et cetera. Taking my ideas, again? Let's assume 4 scum. One is accounted for: drainbead (not on her wagon. Obviously) Like you put it, it sounds very unlikely that all of them piled on to the drainbead wagon. Unless it was a willful sacrifice. It seems somewhat more likely (to me) that one was on that wagon, from early on and couldn't extricate him/herself. Leaves 2 scum. One is "accounted" for ( dotchan). On no wagons, since she was supposed to act as a last minute savior for drainbead and missed the deadline. One other would be left. NAF/Mal, Me or pygmyrugger. By now I've half convinced myself that Mal is a pretty good candidate, not the least because of the comment you made earlier about him, that his votes and mine have coincided on all Days. I hadn't noticed that, but by now I've noticed something else: his votes always "followed" mine. Make of it what you will, but it seems suspicious to me.
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Post by nesta on Aug 17, 2007 22:58:39 GMT -5
I really don't think Capy is gonna change her mind unfortunately as she has always seemed set in her ways,but Nesta, what are your thoughts on the 2 scum post? OK, I re-read dotchan's post, and I honestly don't know what to think. At first it does seem like a slip, but if it is, that's a slip like no other. When I was scum there's no way I would have made a slip like that, and I have a hard time believing anyone would. Calling a night-kill a lynch, yes, but almost outright admitting to being scum and commenting that it would be funny if others were, and in the first sentence of a post at that, seems way to obvious to be a scum slip. Maybe dotchan is scum and just wasn't thinking at all. I could also see it being something a townie would say without thinking. She was being called out on not FOSing two players in particular, and I could see her just saying "wouldn't it be funny if those two were scum and I completely missed them", and maybe her particular way of constructing sentences made this "wouldn't it be funny if those were the other two scum that I hadn't suspected". Far fetched? Maybe, but I'm not willing to think we should lynch someone quite yet based on this one thing. It could be an honest mis-phrasing. I'm going to make an excuse I wish I didn't have to right now. It was a hellish, interruption filled day at work today, and I feel like I haven't slept in days. When I re-read dotchan's posts they did seem more scummy than I found them while reading (and being interrupted) at work, so I'm not sure I trust my judgment right now. I'm going to sleep on it. One problem I'm wondering about is that storyteller, NAF and diggit have jumped on that post as scummy, and those three were in my top four suspects going into Today. (In case you're wondering, pygmy was in my top three, rounding out the four). I guess I could have been wrong about most of them, but I think at least one of them is scum. This makes me very cautious because I think the scum are probably looking for a town scapegoat Today, and if I think even one scum is after someone I need to look closely at why. I'll be up bright and early reviewing this game, but for now it's time for some sleep.
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 17, 2007 23:05:39 GMT -5
My thoughts: I'm kinda pleased, but bummed you confessed Capy as you were one of the Top 3 people I had in my "Possible Genius" list, of the other two, one may be the doctor, so I'll keep them unnamed. --And yes, that does sound really shady to me even, just saying it after the fact, but still. All i've got is my balls and my word. And i guess my spreadsheet where i wrote down "Possible genius!" but still. I still really really secretly hope there are 4 geniuses and one of the others is in hiding, buuut.... that's prolly wishful thinking. 2nd Thought: On my scum list: Dotchan, Pygmy, Diggit. You three are my biggest guesses for scum currently. Then the rest of the people on that FOS list. Then the rest of the town, then the final 2 People on my "Genius" list. Then the 2 geniuses confirmed. Then Me. Thats my trust list. I wanted to get Pygmy (as i believe if Pygmy turns up scum, then I have 100% Faith in Dotchan AND Diggit being Scum) and then move on to get Dotchan tomorrow, as I believe the 3 biggest scum leaders are firmly connected. However, If pygmy turned up scum, I woulda considered Dotchan as possibly then being the Townie player. Because I really think Dotchan has made quite a few "odd" moves this game. And she's either REALLY REALLY newbie-ish in her moves, or She's scum. Inexperienced Scum. But scum none the less. That's why i hesitated on voting for her Diggit, and kept asking her the Questions today, because MAYBE MAYBE Dotchan said alot of wrong things (as Capy is thinking she's doing), and so I wanted her to defend herself. However...My Thoughts on Dotchan again: Dotchan didn't vote on Day 1. Okay.... Perhaps she was new and didn't really know who to vote for.... However, this was someone who on day one had no problem casting a random vote for myself, and then throwing a vote at Nafacandra as well. I feel: It's like Dotchan was gunshy, and unsure of voting for anyone, she certainly got into it at first, and voted and unvoted quickly. I feel that Dotchan is the scum that was supposed to be the least noticed, hence the final non-vote (so she's not in any piles), and yet, she's still involved during the day so it doesn't look like she's lurking at all with her 2 votes and quick unvotes. Then during Day 2, she quickly posts the 4th vote of the day, following after Jsexton's lead by voting for Malacandra. Why did she vote for Malacandra on Day 2 as scum, but unvote him on day 1? I asked her that during my big attack on her, and she said it was inexperience with the game. She had a realization overnight it seemed, and she's gonna be more aggressive this time around. So then when I vote for her... She unvotes Mal and throws a vote right back at Me for doing so. I felt this was an OMGUS vote, and i asked her about it, but again... nothing really strong, just the vote, and Cowgirl seemed to lead the attack then. Then Day 3, She quickly votes for Nesta, and then unvotes nesta, before finally settling on Mhaye, who was in no danger of being voted out at that point. She didn't really have anything to say at first on the Jsexton vs. Malacandra tie (even though she had agreed with Jsexton on day 2 about Malacandra), but not during the tie. It's only in the tie breaker then she makes up her mind where she states that "JSexton has been fairly beneath my radar..." but apparently "toDay's action [of Jsexton] does seem rather out of left field." and thusly she ends up VOTING for the guy. This to me... made NO sense upon reading it. She seemed to be in Jsexton's camp on Day 2. She agreed with him vs. Malacandra. But when it came down to Day 3, she didn't vote for Mal to break the tie... But she DID vote against JSexton in a tiebreaker (right after Diggit cast the first vote) This just didn't sit well with me. But maybe... maybe she's just REALLY townie.... And inexperienced. But jeez. Reversing positions from Day 1, then Day 2 then Day 3. This just seems... bad. Inconsistent actually. And i remember what Storyteller lectured us all on day one about inconsistencies in playing style.... 2) Then Post #182: I asked Dotchan about her damning "other two scum." She points out, "she's Town" and that she didn't FOS several other people actually. All of them but Diggit and Pygmy Are Dead. The... reply was downright comical to me actually. The fact that she didn't FOS the people who died overnight and on Day 1.... That's not helping the case much at ALL. But... maybe she's New. Maybe she's a newbie townie. And she thought that was good evidence to help her out. That she hasn't gone around FOSing the Dead for the 24 hours they were alive.... 3)So I asked her about Pygmy and Diggit then. She points out in that same post and i quote: "Basically other people were doing stuff I found to be more supicious, so I ended up pointing fingers elsewhere." - DotchanSo now i'm intrigued. Because currently she's voting for MadtheSwine. What's her big key reason for voting for the guy? What's the big suspicious thing that's caught her eye? So: I asked her about it in post 186 ( Story I asked you a Q too and you've not answered it). So what's her reason for voting for Mad, other than the OMGUS vote (which she herself pointed out that it WAS [Remember, she could be a newbie townie, who JUST likes using OMGUS votes -See reply #164]) Her answer why she voted for MadTheSwine: I already found him suspicious due to the whole vote/unvote/vote/unvote thing with nesta and felt that he purposely mis-interpreted my statement in order to get me lynched. So... He voted. Unvoted. And voted/Unvoted for someone, once he found out that the person he was voting for was a Genius.... THAT was the most suspicious thing? That was the big reason for voting for him? (>_<) BUT... It's THE VERY SAME THING YOU DID, DOTCHAN! Day 1. Vote. Unvote. Vote. Unvote. Day 2: Vote Mal. Unvote Mal. Day 3: Vote Nesta. Unvote Nesta. It's ... What YOU DID. All 3 Days. >_< Okay... So maybe you're a newbie player, Dotchan. But, I really really must say... I dislike the "thought" that you give behind your votes, and though your votes aren't random, they do NOT in any way seem beneficial for the town. They're quite unhelpful actually. Your actions are also inconsistent and have been so from Day 1 up until now. The very fact that you're voting still w/ OMGUS votes in Day 4, and that you're voting for someone based on something that you yourself have been doing previously the ENTIRE game is just inconsistent and downright scummy. And so even though I believe pygmy and Diggit are scummier, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and right now i believe that someone is out there, who is 100% Scum in my eyes. And as diggit pointed out, I should vote for them (though i think you're just selling your fellow scum down the river at this point, and trying to come out clean). Unvote PygmyRunnerVote DotchanOh and yeah, that whole "the OTHER two scum" seems really really damning, but that's just extra, I didn't need to get into that aspect of this. But its not helping you any either. You could just be Newbie Scum, perhaps. But scum none the less.
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 23:49:38 GMT -5
Ok,
That seems reasonable,
but,
I am thinking out loud here. I am not doctrinaire. This matters, though: I see in our four non-Drain crew at least one of two as a sure thing, and one of two others as well. . . and this 'one of two others' is what's up for discussion.
So if Dotchan's the noob scum. . why didn't the veteran scum just instruct her who to vote for if she was so uncertain on Day 1? They can talk during the day. Remember, the noob scum, if there are any, have handlers this time. Unless she's a total loose canon and there's another message board where everyone is going "NO NO SHUT UP! Christ! SHIT!"
I've been arguing this for a few players (especially Dotchan, a couple of others) on the nerd board: this kind of constant screwup (sorry, Dot) I don't see happening in this game with scum who can chat during the day and #1) coach and #2) ass cover: I've seen few people defend Dotchan other than myself all game-- usually people find another target by themselves (exceptions? Might be interesting to see if anyone aside from known town defends her).
To me, this sort of gaffe, especially repeatedly, seems pure "free agent".
I was a total town noob last game, very pro-town in a way that made me look totally scummy ( I can bring this up again now without raising suspicion) and got into hot water and I can imagine it, so I admittedly give her the benefit of a doubt. But again as out and confirmed town, I am the only one who can act as an advocate to someone I see as a potential mistake of a lynch. So. . . take this post under advisement.
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Post by dnooman on Aug 18, 2007 0:28:39 GMT -5
Completely batshit! I love it! I knew you wouldn't let us down Idle.
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 12:35:49 GMT -5
I suspect quite strongly that between Mal-NAF and Diggit there is scum. One of them, possibly both. I think anyone looking at the Day 1 voting will see what I mean. My suspicions of Mal are well documented; see yesterDay's goings on if you need a review. Diggit, however, has been in my eyes remarkably sane toDay, and has come very far in allaying my suspicions-- he's making a lot of sense. I'm starting to think that's either he's clean (says the angel on my right shoulder) or he's the scum that's going in as a deep mole by smudging other scum (says the devil on the other side). In any case, he's shifted around on my list. NAF unfortunately arrives in the game inheriting Mal's baggage. No choice of his own, but alas. And I'm not keen on his play today. For instance: Earlier today is response to the Blaster-Story discussion of geniuses claiming (in which Story suggests that it would be a good idea for geniuses to claim sooner than later, while Blaster disagrees), I will say that I agree 100% with Story and would like to officially FOS BlaM for his anti town logic. Story is right, he is watching another game with perfect knowladge, he has been scum, vanilla, and a power role. He should know better. Meanwhile, up on page. . 7? CAPY! You realize that you just split the doctors protection for the night giving the scum 50% better odds of taking one of you out? We need the feakin' geniuses to stay alive! A bit of a change of heart. Why so upset? Perhaps it would have been nice if the genius who claimed didn't remove more protective cover for scum off the Drain-wagon. The genius wasn't where he hoped the last genius to be. With this, the request for scum-suspect lists, and hand wringing 'think about the children' references to my anti-town play, he hasn't done a lot to change my mind. I think Mal dodged a bullet yesterday. vote NAF
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 18, 2007 12:54:22 GMT -5
For me, it seemed that Diggit only seemed to become the "clean" townie AFTER Dotchan's non-FoS list was revealed by Mad. So I'm a bit leery of his behavior now, as it suddenly seems to come outta nowhere, and not something i really remember from days 1-3 as much. However, I can see where you're going Capy, and we'll just have to agree to disagree. Though if Dotchan comes up scum.... I'd like to persue Diggit.
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 13:32:19 GMT -5
Regarding the Dotchan problem. The theory of 4 or 5 scum is bandied about several places early in the Day-- Story suggests it (#37), Blaster agrees for the most part (#40), Dot suggests it in #42. Dot brings it up again and immediately receives Why are you so sure there are either 4 or 5 scum Dotchan? The implication, of course, is that she KNOWS. He did not ask the same question of Story or Blaster or any of the other players who've been working with the 4 or 5 idea (elsewhere (#52) Mad suggests that only three survive-- he likes a low number). Right at this moment things head off in the direction of Nesta's claim-- in #107 Dotchan answers Mad's query and FOSes him for general playstyle in #118--but in #122 and #124 and the posts that follow Mad and NAF have a very fast back and forth and bring the Dotchan hunt into being. Roosh comes in a bit ambivalently in #131. More characterization of Dot by Mad and NAF in 136, 137. . Roosh invites her to defend herself in 143. This and another request for clarification later earn Roosh the title of apologist and some heavy peer pressure. In #145 she makes her slip that feeds the fire. Mad runs with it, runs with it, Roosh comments again, Diggit comments on how it could look funny, NAF clarifies that this is a 'rather classic scum tell'. Story comes in to consider all of this, doesn't vote pending further examination. More back and forth between Dot and Roosh, who winds up labeled an apologist with me by Diggit (who has not voted for Dotchan. . .). I claim, and get un-HOSed, and change from scum protecting scum to fascist demagogue who won't listen to reason. Diggit in #221 asks the reasonable question of why Dot didn't vote to help Drain, and resolves just afterward that it was too late for her to do anything. Et cetera. My point? Well, the Dotchan wagon, which is being characterized as the will of the town, is being driven from long before her gaffe by 2 players, really, one of whom should be VERY invested in her looking like scum, per the voting chart, and another who would love us to see three scum left total (and has pitched that ONE of the four off the drainwagon is scum)-- Dot of course, and I presume, oh, who knows. Maybe unknowable members of the drainwagon. The third eager member of the wagon is Diggit, who is equally invested in her looking like scum. Whether NAF or Diggit is scum is sort of only a footnote to this problem--perhaps one or both IS town, but their investment in the problem remains. I just think we should notice that the driving force behind this thread is not a neutral, disinterested force. When either of them explains that Dot MUST BE the one of the four that is the scum, this is not necessarily a neutral statement. I'm much more interested to see what uninvested players have to say about her possible scum slip.
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 13:39:15 GMT -5
For me, it seemed that Diggit only seemed to become the "clean" townie AFTER Dotchan's non-FoS list was revealed by Mad. So I'm a bit leery of his behavior now, as it suddenly seems to come outta nowhere, and not something i really remember from days 1-3 as much. Where is the non-FOS list, BTW? I see Diggit describing some well-reasoned suspicion of MALNAF in #90, #92. Ah, Mad is in #122. What do you think?
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 18, 2007 14:05:26 GMT -5
Roosh wrote: Wait, what? I don't quite follow your logic there. Everybody's either town or scum, there's no humorous third option (unless Idle was REALLY a bastard and put the Mad Bomber in the game ).
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 18, 2007 14:06:59 GMT -5
Where is the non-FOS list, BTW? I see Diggit describing some well-reasoned suspicion of MALNAF in #90, #92. Ah, Mad is in #122. What do you think? Which non-FOS list? Mine is at reply #182, if you want to take a look at it.
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 18, 2007 14:11:48 GMT -5
The Non-FoS list would be Reply #132 by MadTheSwine. I found that list to be veeery interesting. And that seems to be when Diggit starts to begin his anti-Dotchanism
That and i guess we should include the list where dotchan adds all of the dead people that she never suspected during my questioning of her (that was reply #182).
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 14:19:39 GMT -5
Ah, my point was that he looked "clean town" before that list, although you're correct in that Diggit gets anti-Dot there.
What was veeeery interesting about it? That it was posted, how it's responded to, or its contents in itself?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 18, 2007 14:20:56 GMT -5
EIGHT out of ELEVEN people have voted.
There are eight and a half hours to go before Day ends.
dotchan (3) - NAF1138, Mad the Swine, Roosh Mad the Swine (2) - Blaster Master, dotchan pygmyrugger (1) - diggitcamara diggitcamara (1) - GreedySmurf NAF1138 (1) - Capybara
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 18, 2007 14:26:56 GMT -5
More so interesting as in it seemed like a very odd note that the 2 people on the list (2 peep i had been looking at, hell even voting for one of em) were the "least suspicious" to Dotchan. It seemed like a newbieish thing to do if you were scum.
And then i wondered, well now... If theoretically I was scum and I just realized that one of my scummates had made such a slip, what would i do? Why i'd do the same thing that Diggit is doing. Sell them down the river, cut off all ties, and then try to make myself look as town as possible and move on to another topic instead.... And hopefully therefore forgetting that i was one of the 2 people on that list.
That's why i'm kinda suspicious of Diggit, cuz that was my thought when i first saw the list. And now Diggit seems to be doing exactly that. But the easiest way to tell is to follow the trail. hence my vote for Dotchan, because I really just dislike her inconsistencies in playing (see my late night votepost against her, and my day 2 post against her) This stuff is just extra slips that aren't helping her in my eyes.
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 18, 2007 14:29:02 GMT -5
Roosh wrote: Wait, what? I don't quite follow your logic there. Everybody's either town or scum, there's no humorous third option (unless Idle was REALLY a bastard and put the Mad Bomber in the game ). *Whoops didn't catch that typo in the first paragraph. It should be if pygmy turned up NOT scum, then I'd consider your innocence. As for the 2nd one. Yeah. I agree with you. You're still Scum.
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 18, 2007 14:30:48 GMT -5
I'm still waiting, Storyteller for your response to my Q waaay back in the day.... Heh.
Where oh where didja go?
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 18, 2007 14:32:34 GMT -5
Pygmy, Story, and Nesta all have yet to vote.
I'm most curious though to see Pygmy and stories actions.... Esp. with the votes this close for Mad vs. Dotchan....
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 14:40:08 GMT -5
More so interesting as in it seemed like a very odd note that the 2 people on the list (2 peep i had been looking at, hell even voting for one of em) were the "least suspicious" to Dotchan. It seemed like a newbieish thing to do if you were scum. Just wanted to point out that you're finding someone most suspicious because she's not suspicious of 2 people you were already suspicious of-- her scumminess factor is predicated on theirs but she jumps to the head of the list ahead of the people whose presumed scumminess is (part of) the basis for the determination of her scumminess. If you don't think they're as scummy, that erodes that reason that you find her scummy. Just making sure you overtly understand this part of your logic flow-- I've seen a few people do this over the course of the game: If "A is and B is, then C is," and then not being so sure about A or B but positive about C because of math they've just dismantled.
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 14:40:49 GMT -5
My own vote isn't set in stone-- I will move it where I think it's needed.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 18, 2007 16:13:47 GMT -5
OK, I thought that someone, somewhere, might have shot one (or more) holes in my theories about dotchan. Honestly, I don't see a reason to change my belief that she's scum.
Unvote pygmy Vote dotchan
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 18, 2007 16:19:49 GMT -5
dotchan (4) - NAF1138, Mad the Swine, Roosh, diggitcamara Mad the Swine (2) - Blaster Master, dotchan diggitcamara (1) - GreedySmurf NAF1138 (1) - Capybara
Remember, six votes ends day automatically. All votes are LOCKED after the sixth vote is placed.
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 16:30:47 GMT -5
Interesting.
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 18, 2007 16:38:14 GMT -5
Time to play hypothetical situations again.
If I were, as several people have posited, a loose-canon scum, how many other scum would be bussing me right now to gain themselves town cred?
On the other hand, if I am just a careless dumbass Normal Townie who can't keep her damn mouth shut, would the scum jump me right now and then play chicken with the doctor, or do they only have to put me in the lead and wait for the clock run out?
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 16:47:41 GMT -5
Oh where oh where are the valiant scum to save their poor Dotchan? Since the wagon voting for Dot is clearly all town, the scum must be the others!
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 18, 2007 16:55:35 GMT -5
Time to play hypothetical situations again. If I were, as several people have posited, a loose-canon scum, how many other scum would be bussing me right now to gain themselves town cred? (snip) Thing is, dotchan, your defense has been... lacking? Completely absent? And then you post this. And, as I read the last sentence I posted I can't help but thinking: it sounds like a psychopath who has given up. And now tries to milk the hopeless situation for what little it's got. In other words: you're going down, but you're going to drag someone else down with you.
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Post by capybara on Aug 18, 2007 17:00:12 GMT -5
In other words: you're going down, but you're going to drag someone else down with you. So, Diggit, you think she's scum that wants to take some other scum with her-- not just resolve herself to being lynched but now she's trying to throw the game? Can you clarify that this is your theory here, or am I misunderstanding you?
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