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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 24, 2007 1:02:07 GMT -5
Mad, Jeez, you're freaking me out, man. What's with the jumping all over the "ooh shiny" from the scumbait? We know she looks guilty as hell, but Pygmy said the VERY same thing, but you jumped only on Dotchan for it.... Come on, man, I expect you to be a stronger player than that. Can the other Dotchan voters give a better reason for voting for her other than the "ooh shiny"? I am talking about the ridiculous unvote during the Day.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 24, 2007 9:58:46 GMT -5
So... um... anybody have any thoughts? On dotchan? On pygmy? On the Detroit Lions playoff chances? Anyone? Anyone?
I, for my part, am stymied. There are fair reasons to vote for both candidates, but compelling reasons to vote for neither.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 24, 2007 10:05:44 GMT -5
OK. I've waited long enough for an answer to this post. So I'll vote dotchan. The thing is: I can understand some townie saying, during the Day, "well, I don't know, but so-and-so seems town-aligned to me and I won't sacrifice another townie for my sake". During a run-off things change. You KNOW your own allegiance . And nobody else's. You don't know the other's allegiance if you're a townie. And, in that case, you obviously should vote for the option that helps town. In this case, that option is voting for the other (there would be at least some uncertainty as to the other player's allegiance). dotchan is not doing that. And that's enough for me.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 24, 2007 10:11:15 GMT -5
On the Detroit Lions playoff chances? Anyone? Anyone?
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 10:18:38 GMT -5
Dot, if you don't want to play any more you should have arranged for a sub, not just stopped trying (especially if you're town). Suicide is not a helpful alternative in this game, and you're making it very hard for even your apologists to defend you.
What are you TALKING about, you won't vote for Pyg in the runoff?
If you're town, you know you're town and you want town to win, right? And if you're scum you should still want your team to win. You're just hardly making any sense any more.
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 10:21:53 GMT -5
I must point out, though, that Dot unvoted Pygmy when we were trying to get a tie and didn't toss it back on. That's pretty darn sporting. You're right. I plan on not voting for dotchan during the run-off, and not building a case against her. As of now, I only plan to defend myself, specifically nesta's large post in which he voted for me. And damn straight you are going to vote against Dotchan if you're town, damn you! You guys are the ONLY players (other than scum. .. maybe you're scum) who know that you're town (if you are).
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 24, 2007 10:27:46 GMT -5
I plan on not voting for dotchan during the run-off, and not building a case against her. As of now, I only plan to defend myself, specifically nesta's large post in which he voted for me. I fail to understand why I'm the one getting jumped on. I was being irrational yesterday, and for that I apologize. I am town. Incomptent town, but it's better than nothing, I guess. vote pygmyrugger
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 24, 2007 10:28:44 GMT -5
*Incompetent, even.
Preview, preview, preview.
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 10:31:04 GMT -5
I fail to understand why I'm the one getting jumped on. You will note I jumped on Pygmy, too.
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 24, 2007 10:32:32 GMT -5
I fail to understand why I'm the one getting jumped on. You will note I jumped on Pygmy, too. I guess we were composing our posts at the same time.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 24, 2007 10:34:03 GMT -5
Ehh, what's the difference? I was kinda hoping neither of us would vote for each other.
Vote dotchan
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 10:39:33 GMT -5
Ehh, what's the difference? I was kinda hoping neither of us would vote for each other. Vote dotchanThat requires that we all assume that you're both fair and honest and good and won't toss in a vote at the last minute. This way they're out where we can see them.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 24, 2007 10:48:25 GMT -5
Ehh, what's the difference? I was kinda hoping neither of us would vote for each other. Vote dotchanThat requires that we all assume that you're both fair and honest and good and won't toss in a vote at the last minute. This way they're out where we can see them. On that note, I urge everyone to get their votes in early today! I don't think a non-lynch is the desirable outcome toDay and I for one am quite willing to align myself to a vote against pygmy if there is a danger of a tie.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 24, 2007 10:54:11 GMT -5
You're right. I plan on not voting for dotchan during the run-off, and not building a case against her. As of now, I only plan to defend myself, specifically nesta's large post in which he voted for me. I'm also abstaining from my vote, so that there won't be a tie. (And honestly, I don't trust myself to make a good decision at this point.) As I said before, let the cards fall where they may. Why? Well, because, even though the outcome of your musings is the same (non-vote), his argument is that he will only defend himself. Your argument is that you don't trust yourself to make a good decision at this point. In other words, pygmy said he'd be actively putting forth reasons why he shouldn't be lynched, you said you'd refrain from doing anything. IMHO pygmy's position seem far more helpful to town than yours.
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Post by nesta on Aug 24, 2007 11:17:21 GMT -5
Vote pygmy.
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 11:18:17 GMT -5
Ok, I'm having a crisis.
Several unpleasant and possibly unpopular thoughts follow: I will publicize them so that no uncertified town has to go out on a limb and say what they're thinking, if they're thinking what I'm thinking.
I'm not comfortable with either of these players as scum. I think we might be in a bad spot with no good alternatives-- I know several of us supported a runoff to have extra time to think. However.
Unpleasant Thought A: If we don't lynch Dot, are we going to have the exact same scenario tomorrow? Her questionable posts will still remain, and (this is all assuming she's town) she'll still be either distracting or scum will be able to use her as bait or both, and we won't get any work done toward catching scum, unless every single non-scum member of town gets on board with some alternate lynching project.
So implications: 1) Dot needs killin' even IF she's town, or 2) Do we have enough town that's comfortable with her surviving and moving forward onto other things?
moving on, however. . .
Unpleasant Thought B: Currently I count 9 players. If we lynch one and there is a successful nightkill, we start tomorrow with 7. Three of whom may be scum. If there four. . . well. . .
Unpleasant Thought B, corollary: Possibly the most unpopular thing I will say and I expect to catch hell over it.
IF both of these candidates are town. . . would a no-lynch be best for the town? Are we sure we don't have two bad options here? We might already be in a bad position: are we going to make it worse? Again, it would require that all the town at least come to some sort of resolution about Dot, if they come to the conclusion that she's town, and not let her get in the way.
I acknowledge that there may be some town that really earnestly believe Dot's scum. I also earnestly believe she may be a very easy target for railroading. It's a hard call.
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 24, 2007 11:36:26 GMT -5
But if there are still 4 scum left and we end the day with a No Lynch, then the game would be over already - as storyteller pointed out, even with a successful Doc protection overNight we'd be at even numbers Tomorrow.
That's what made me fairly certain there weren't 4 scum left after NAF ate it - if there had been 5 scum, one or more of them could have hammered before NAF even showed up as a potential lynch target.
And, really, the same two options apply if (note the use of the hypothetical here) I'm scum: 1) Lynch me now. 2) "Save" me until later, keep on scum hunting.
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Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 24, 2007 11:41:45 GMT -5
<snip> Most of pygmy's posts on Day 1 were fluff. It was Day 1. Not much content to be posted, really.That was a joke. I was being silly. Again, it was Day 1That’s still how I interpret it.If I knew at the time that the two leading wagons were for scum, don’t you think I would have at least voted for one of them to try and gain some townie tokens? I found Hal suspicious because of one thing he said. Although I didn’t mention him again, I was still reading his posts. I didn’t say I had him pegged as a pro-town power role. I said I had him pegged as a pro town role. That could have been anything, vanilla, cupid, doctor, therapist… Me either. It just seemed a little –too- persuasive. So persuasive that I placed my vote. After thinking about it, I realized that might not be a Good Thing.
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Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 24, 2007 11:42:38 GMT -5
The last paragraph was still NESTA's quote.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 24, 2007 11:49:09 GMT -5
(snip) Unpleasant Thought A: If we don't lynch Dot, are we going to have the exact same scenario tomorrow? Her questionable posts will still remain, and (this is all assuming she's town) she'll still be either distracting or scum will be able to use her as bait or both, and we won't get any work done toward catching scum, unless every single non-scum member of town gets on board with some alternate lynching project. So implications: 1) Dot needs killin' even IF she's town, or 2) Do we have enough town that's comfortable with her surviving and moving forward onto other things? moving on, however. . . Unpleasant Thought B: Currently I count 9 players. If we lynch one and there is a successful nightkill, we start tomorrow with 7. Three of whom may be scum. If there four. . . well. . . (snip) IF both of these candidates are town. . . would a no-lynch be best for the town? Are we sure we don't have two bad options here? We might already be in a bad position: are we going to make it worse? Again, it would require that all the town at least come to some sort of resolution about Dot, if they come to the conclusion that she's town, and not let her get in the way. (snip) Well, here's the situation as I see it: 1. Number of psychopath's left a.)At most, the psychopath's numbered 5 at the game's start (or, at least, that has been our collective assessment. So, toDay there were, at most, 3 left b.) There were, at game's start, 3 monks. That makes me think that there were 4 psychopath's at the beginning, and thus we have 2 psychopath's left 3. If we mis-lynch toDay, we are down to 8 players (7 during the Night). At worst (scenario 1a) we would have one more mis-lynch, at best 2 more 4. None of this matters. Make your decision on who you think is a psychopath. If you are convinced none of them are, by all means, don't vote 5. Still, I think even a mislynch toDay gives us information, in the form of voting patterns a.)if pygmy goes down, we'll have a better handle on Day 1's voting patterns and the psychopath's attitude on Day 1 b.) dotchan's lynch would tell us if they kept her vote on reserve on Day 1. Which, in turn, might tell us where the rest of the scum were
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 11:55:23 GMT -5
5. Still, I think even a mislynch toDay gives us information, in the form of voting patterns a.)if pygmy goes down, we'll have a better handle on Day 1's voting patterns and the psychopath's attitude on Day 1 b.) dotchan's lynch would tell us if they kept her vote on reserve on Day 1. Which, in turn, might tell us where the rest of the scum were The reserve vote (I sounds like a Kansas Science textbook cover here) is simply one theory out of several and can't be proven until we kill the scum involved, if there are any. If there aren't. . . A good theory, but still a theory. It implies that one of these two MUST be scum and sets us up to doing the other in Tomorrow-- an important implication to overtly recognize.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Aug 24, 2007 11:56:06 GMT -5
Okay, I'm going to start catching up now. I'm going to go ahead and vote Dotchan for now for the same reason I did earlier since it may take me a few hours to catch up (you know, having to occassionally do work and all, being at work and stuff) and I might not finish before the voting deadline. When is it anyway?
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 24, 2007 12:17:45 GMT -5
5. Still, I think even a mislynch toDay gives us information, in the form of voting patterns a.)if pygmy goes down, we'll have a better handle on Day 1's voting patterns and the psychopath's attitude on Day 1 b.) dotchan's lynch would tell us if they kept her vote on reserve on Day 1. Which, in turn, might tell us where the rest of the scum were The reserve vote (I sounds like a Kansas Science textbook cover here) is simply one theory out of several and can't be proven until we kill the scum involved, if there are any. If there aren't. . . A good theory, but still a theory. It implies that one of these two MUST be scum and sets us up to doing the other in Tomorrow-- an important implication to overtly recognize. ... and that's exactly what I don't understand. You're saying it's a good theory. There are several scum-tells that I (and others) have mentioned about dotchan. And which you haven't really refuted. But you're still acting like you don't really believe any of it. You act like someone who, deep inside, is convinced dotchan can't be scum. My point is: Make up your mind. I seldom defend anyone when the only thing I have to defend them is a gut feeling. I may not vote against them but I don't waffle around, attacking valid arguments (like, for instance, arguments against Mal). At that time the only reason I had to refrain from voting against him was the implausibility of having spotted two psychopath's on the very first Day. Still, I recognized that he was a valid target. The arguments may not have convinced me. I still acted on the information I had. And, concerning your argument about pygmy vs. dotchan (or pygmy plus dotchan, if you prefer): their role on Day 1 is still in the balance. They may both have been "reserve votes" on Day 1, though I doubt it. It seems more likely that only one of them was. You say the theory can only be proven if we kill one of them. Well... is it the theory strong enough in your eyes or isn't it? If it isn't, are there other factors that make you believe one of the two candidates are scum to add to the theory? Don't make your decision based on the theory alone. Look at their posts. Find out if any of them look scummy to you. Vote on that information. And do the same thing again tomorrow.
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Post by Blaster Master on Aug 24, 2007 12:37:51 GMT -5
Okay, first off... Storyteller deserves a round of applause. Excellent work in adjusting the facts to fit your theory, rather than adjusting your theory to fit the facts. I will respond to your points in a subsequent post.
As for the matter at hand, I saw nothing in my read through the last several pages to change my earlier suspicions. If anything, the meta-gaming point brought up by Roosh just goes to show that the "newbie" playstyle is almost certainly an act.
Based on my earlier reasoning, if she's scum, then whether or not Diggit is depends on my estimation on the initial number of scum. If she's not, then I'm convinced pygmyrugger is.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 24, 2007 12:44:06 GMT -5
Okay, first off... Storyteller deserves a round of applause. Excellent work in adjusting the facts to fit your theory, rather than adjusting your theory to fit the facts. I will respond to your points in a subsequent post. Bring it on. Be careful about accusing me of adjusting facts, though; my interpretation may be subject to debate, but the facts - ...that you have not received a single vote other than mine (and drainbead's silly one) all game long, and have been the subject of exceedingly minimal suspcion during the same period ...that you have voted exclusively for players already subject to substantial all around suspicion ...that you were the fourth vote for drainbead, that the votes for Mal began piling up shortly after you started voting for drainbead, and that she abandoned her attempts at defense within an hour of your vote for her ...that you were the most passionate and aggressive critic of mhaye's plan, in spite of showing relatively little aggression at other times ...that NAF FOSed you and never followed-up and ...that you have posted strategy discussion that overlooks key points that I can't believe you'd overlook unintentionally are pretty easily documented. If your plan is to say that I've "adjusted" any of these facts, you migth want to consider a different approach.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 24, 2007 12:44:48 GMT -5
One more fact: I can't spell, apparently.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 24, 2007 12:47:26 GMT -5
dotchan (4) - Mad the Swine, diggitcamara, pygmyrugger, Blaster Master pygmyrugger (2) - dotchan, nesta
Two hours and nine minutes left.
Three more people need to vote.
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 12:50:14 GMT -5
Diggit, I'm just concerned about you pushing that theory as The Given Truth at precisely this minute. Let's say, hypothetically and for the sake of argument-- just so that you can see my point of view-- that you, for example, are scum and Dot's town. I go, ok, let's get this out of the way and lynch Dot just to move on with things. She turns out town. Whoopsie Doodle, say the scum, Bad Guess! Must Be PYGMY, Then! Lynch Him. And then, hypothetically, he turns out town.
I haven't seen any of Dot's scumtells as anything that can't equally be chalked up to ineptitude, and I've already made that clear. There's no refuting it with you, especially if, hypothetically, you have an agenda. Instead you might as well go full ad hominem like NAF did at the end. I'm a very naughty anti-town player.
But it's not necessarily about her. It's entirely possible that she is town and a not-so-hot player, and it's possible that she's the worst scum player that ever lived, but half of the reason I don't want Dot lynched is because I sure don't like the makeup of her lynching team. A team that I can now expect, if we lynch her, to jump immediately onto Pygmy in the Morning. I don't like the narrative and I don't like the cast. It's all looks very grotty. And you would feel the same way if you saw someone you suspected was town get jumped on by precisely the players who you suspected were scum. If you're town.
I'm not 'convinced' that Dot is town but I'm not convinced that she's scum, either, you see. I'm sorry I'm not getting on board fast enough.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 24, 2007 12:58:57 GMT -5
Diggit, I'm just concerned about you pushing that theory as The Given Truth at precisely this minute. Let's say, hypothetically and for the sake of argument-- just so that you can see my point of view-- that you, for example, are scum and Dot's town. I go, ok, let's get this out of the way and lynch Dot just to move on with things. She turns out town. Whoopsie Doodle, say the scum, Bad Guess! Must Be PYGMY, Then! Lynch Him. And then, hypothetically, he turns out town. I haven't seen any of Dot's scumtells as anything that can't equally be chalked up to ineptitude, and I've already made that clear. There's no refuting it with you, especially if, hypothetically, you have an agenda. Instead you might as well go full ad hominem like NAF did at the end. I'm a very naughty anti-town player. But it's not necessarily about her. It's entirely possible that she is town and a not-so-hot player, and it's possible that she's the worst scum player that ever lived, but half of the reason I don't want Dot lynched is because I sure don't like the makeup of her lynching team. A team that I can now expect, if we lynch her, to jump immediately onto Pygmy in the Morning. I don't like the narrative and I don't like the cast. It's all looks very grotty. And you would feel the same way if you saw someone you suspected was town get jumped on by precisely the players who you suspected were scum. If you're town. I'm not 'convinced' that Dot is town but I'm not convinced that she's scum, either, you see. I'm sorry I'm not getting on board fast enough. Again, if you don't like that, simply don't vote. Because by your argument you really aren't convinced either by the theory or by the cast of supporters or by the arguments that point in dotchan's direction or by a combination of all factors. And in your last argument you add to that an argument that makes me think you don't like going against pygmy either. The thing is, you're simply waffling (IMHO). You don't have a strong argument of your own, but cast doubts into all existing theories. Do you have a strong argument to vote non-lynch? Show it. Do you have a strong argument to vote pygmy? Bring it. But don't leave it to the last couple of minutes. The Town needs to discuss anything, with ample time if it's possible.
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Post by capybara on Aug 24, 2007 13:06:06 GMT -5
Unpleasant Thought A: If we don't lynch Dot, are we going to have the exact same scenario tomorrow? Her questionable posts will still remain, and (this is all assuming she's town) she'll still be either distracting or scum will be able to use her as bait or both, and we won't get any work done toward catching scum, unless every single non-scum member of town gets on board with some alternate lynching project. This is not meant to be an anti-town move. I'm certainly not convinced that Pygmy's scum. Dot-- no offense, but I need to do this-- we can't have a no lynch day and I don't know if there are enough players who feel certain that Pyg's scum to turn things around. If he dies you'll just be killed tomorrow anyway, I fear. If Dot turns up town I will NOT let Pyg's death tomorrow be a foregone conclusion. Dot, through your death we settle something once and for all, which needs to be settled now. If your town, I hope you can appreciate that it's something that has to be done. If you're scum, well, die, scum. In either case I think this might be the less bad choice today. Vote DotchanThe rest of you who aren't scum: I hope we can make some very good decisions tomorrow.
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