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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:22:55 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Dec 8, 2008 20:22:55 GMT -5
Hey rysto. I tend to agree and disagree at the same time. Any reason why you say scum as opposed to PFK with some odd win condition? I mean yeah it sure doesn't feel like a PFK claim but what in the world could scum motivation be? I think that she's a scum bomb. If we lynch her, one of us dies.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:29:18 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 8, 2008 20:29:18 GMT -5
So given your theory, what's her win condition if she eventually blows up anyway? Seems like the crappiest of crappy roles. I don't believe that she's PFK. I believe that she's scum. And I was just about to post that after doing more thinking. (Understand, I bit the PFK think hook, line, and sinker in the beginning, but I've changed my mind completely.) It seems many here are assuming that she's being truthful. But why? After all.... She is self claimed not aligned with town!Now I think it's safe to assume that means she's not town, since that would be the oddest gambit for a townie to play. I can think of scenarios where town might pull such a thing, but I'd also have to think that there'd be better ways to do it than this. But she's PFK just because she said she is? Try this one instead: mmouse, a Bob-omb (scum timebomb) has to be lynched in a given number of days or she suicides with no one else to take out. Since lynch the lurker seems to be a strategy people are employing on Day 1, mmouse decides to actively lurk, checking out the thread, but not posting much to it. This buys her enough votes to get in the lead. Her plan is working. But, suddenly people are changing their minds, a train against Bufftabby gains steam. Also, some people are voting DBI for lurking. mmouse finds herself losing votes. So the scum change the strategy. Mallow, the scum with the power to change town's goal, and mmouse decide to pull a gambit where mmouse claims PFK. She might still get lynched that day since she claimed PFK, but even if she doesn't, Mallow will change town's win condition so that town will need to lynch PFK to win. So now town has a PFK in their sights and decides to lynch her to further their cause, however, what they really do is further scum's cause more. Scum bombs don't want to be lynched if they don't have to. Because a living scum is a far better than changing out a scum for a townie for them. PFK don't want to be lynched, because they typically lose upon their death. Look at Sinjin in Marvel. She claimed (truthfully) PFK for whatever reason, but when it was apparent she was going to be lynched, she tried to stop that lynch, knowing that she would lose if she didn't. Mmouse is taking no action to stop her own lynch. That pretty much goes against every conventional strategy for lynching in mafia. Hell, even vanilla town will fight their lynch to the end. Self-Preservation is a null tell, but No-Preservation screams scum.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:34:13 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 8, 2008 20:34:13 GMT -5
Self-Preservation is a null tell, but No-Preservation screams scum. As a former town bomb myself, that should say "No-Preservation and not town screams scum". Though, frequently even town bombs will fight their lynch for a bit, since taking out a night killer is usually more apt to hit scum or SK than choosing someone on the lynch wagon. They just tend not to claim.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:39:49 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Dec 8, 2008 20:39:49 GMT -5
[oog] I claimed because I was pissed about the purple, not purple thing and I mainly because I couldn't figure out a pro-town Rogue power stealing role. I knew nothing about the Marvel universe and figured I was dead meat. My claim was basically suicide by Mafia. The only reason I came back later is because I don't like to give up without a fight. Which turned out to be a poor fight at best. Woof.[/oog]
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:40:03 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Dec 8, 2008 20:40:03 GMT -5
I don't believe that she's PFK. I believe that she's scum. And I was just about to post that after doing more thinking. (Understand, I bit the PFK think hook, line, and sinker in the beginning, but I've changed my mind completely.) It seems many here are assuming that she's being truthful. But why? After all.... She is self claimed not aligned with town!Now I think it's safe to assume that means she's not town, since that would be the oddest gambit for a townie to play. I can think of scenarios where town might pull such a thing, but I'd also have to think that there'd be better ways to do it than this. But she's PFK just because she said she is? Try this one instead: mmouse, a Bob-omb (scum timebomb) has to be lynched in a given number of days or she suicides with no one else to take out. Since lynch the lurker seems to be a strategy people are employing on Day 1, mmouse decides to actively lurk, checking out the thread, but not posting much to it. This buys her enough votes to get in the lead. Her plan is working. But, suddenly people are changing their minds, a train against Bufftabby gains steam. Also, some people are voting DBI for lurking. mmouse finds herself losing votes. So the scum change the strategy. Mallow, the scum with the power to change town's goal, and mmouse decide to pull a gambit where mmouse claims PFK. She might still get lynched that day since she claimed PFK, but even if she doesn't, Mallow will change town's win condition so that town will need to lynch PFK to win. So now town has a PFK in their sights and decides to lynch her to further their cause, however, what they really do is further scum's cause more. Scum bombs don't want to be lynched if they don't have to. Because a living scum is a far better than changing out a scum for a townie for them. PFK don't want to be lynched, because they typically lose upon their death. Look at Sinjin in Marvel. She claimed (truthfully) PFK for whatever reason, but when it was apparent she was going to be lynched, she tried to stop that lynch, knowing that she would lose if she didn't. Mmouse is taking no action to stop her own lynch. That pretty much goes against every conventional strategy for lynching in mafia. Hell, even vanilla town will fight their lynch to the end. Self-Preservation is a null tell, but No-Preservation screams scum. You are assuming, however, that mmouse is taking the smartest and shrewdest possible action. I am not. mmouse is a newbie, admitted that she was "intimidated", and today has said little with all our votes on her. To me, that screams "rolling over and dying". It's not like it doesn't happen. Look at the Shadowfacts lynch that just happened on the Straight Dope. Here's my theory--mmouse had a PFK power that could help town, so she decided to come clean and hide behind the town. But when she said she was PFK, people started gunning for her, so she abandoned that strategy. To add insult to injury, the win condition changed so that we're all but sure to lynch her. Because of this, she became bitter, and adopted an "Up yours, town!" attitude. It may not fit with the 'assume your opponent is playing perfectly" stratagem, but I think it takes into account personalities better. And mmouse, I apologize for any assholeishness in the above post.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:42:01 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 8, 2008 20:42:01 GMT -5
Hoopy, I agree with some - not all - of the above.
Here's the thing: we are all assuming that mmouse's PFK claim was a deliberate attempt to get lynched, and it might be. But there are other possibilities. To wit: in a standard game, what would be the best way to get lynched? Claim PFK? Nah. In our recent games, Town has been moving toward the view that a PFK lynch constitutes a mislynch, that it's better to try to get the Scum to kill them for us, or have a Vig take them out. Just look at the collective reaction when mmouse claimed PFK - was it a rush of votes for her? No. It was a a few halting "if there's no better choice" votes and a bunch of people generally saying "let's let the Vig take care of her." I did that, in so many words.
So let's add one more bizarre possibility to the mix: mmouse is Scum with a power that activates if a Night kill is attempted on her. Claiming PFK was a way to try to guarantee such an attempt - no way for mmouse to know, after all, that there's evidently only "potential" Vigs out there.
(Or hell, maybe a Vig did target her, and the power has already been activated. Who knows?)
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:47:55 GMT -5
Post by special on Dec 8, 2008 20:47:55 GMT -5
And I was just about to post that after doing more thinking. (Understand, I bit the PFK think hook, line, and sinker in the beginning, but I've changed my mind completely.) It seems many here are assuming that she's being truthful. But why? After all.... She is self claimed not aligned with town!Now I think it's safe to assume that means she's not town, since that would be the oddest gambit for a townie to play. I can think of scenarios where town might pull such a thing, but I'd also have to think that there'd be better ways to do it than this. But she's PFK just because she said she is? Try this one instead: mmouse, a Bob-omb (scum timebomb) has to be lynched in a given number of days or she suicides with no one else to take out. Since lynch the lurker seems to be a strategy people are employing on Day 1, mmouse decides to actively lurk, checking out the thread, but not posting much to it. This buys her enough votes to get in the lead. Her plan is working. But, suddenly people are changing their minds, a train against Bufftabby gains steam. Also, some people are voting DBI for lurking. mmouse finds herself losing votes. So the scum change the strategy. Mallow, the scum with the power to change town's goal, and mmouse decide to pull a gambit where mmouse claims PFK. She might still get lynched that day since she claimed PFK, but even if she doesn't, Mallow will change town's win condition so that town will need to lynch PFK to win. So now town has a PFK in their sights and decides to lynch her to further their cause, however, what they really do is further scum's cause more. Scum bombs don't want to be lynched if they don't have to. Because a living scum is a far better than changing out a scum for a townie for them. PFK don't want to be lynched, because they typically lose upon their death. Look at Sinjin in Marvel. She claimed (truthfully) PFK for whatever reason, but when it was apparent she was going to be lynched, she tried to stop that lynch, knowing that she would lose if she didn't. Mmouse is taking no action to stop her own lynch. That pretty much goes against every conventional strategy for lynching in mafia. Hell, even vanilla town will fight their lynch to the end. Self-Preservation is a null tell, but No-Preservation screams scum. You are assuming, however, that mmouse is taking the smartest and shrewdest possible action. I am not. mmouse is a newbie, admitted that she was "intimidated", and today has said little with all our votes on her. To me, that screams "rolling over and dying". It's not like it doesn't happen. Look at the Shadowfacts lynch that just happened on the Straight Dope. Here's my theory--mmouse had a PFK power that could help town, so she decided to come clean and hide behind the town. But when she said she was PFK, people started gunning for her, so she abandoned that strategy. To add insult to injury, the win condition changed so that we're all but sure to lynch her. Because of this, she became bitter, and adopted an "Up yours, town!" attitude. It may not fit with the 'assume your opponent is playing perfectly" stratagem, but I think it takes into account personalities better. And mmouse, I apologize for any assholeishness in the above post. Except with Scum being able to talk during the Day, she could come up with a very shrewd move with the help of her scum buddies. Perhaps even better than any one person could develop on their own.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:49:45 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Dec 8, 2008 20:49:45 GMT -5
Except with Scum being able to talk during the Day, she could come up with a very shrewd move with the help of her scum buddies. Perhaps even better than any one person could develop on their own. Wait, wait. Scum can talk during the Day? We know this for a fact?
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:52:59 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Dec 8, 2008 20:52:59 GMT -5
Um yes scum can talk during the day, I asked that day one , back with a link in a minute.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:54:43 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Dec 8, 2008 20:54:43 GMT -5
Ah, too bad. I thought that seemed too easy, but I had to make sure.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 20:59:32 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Dec 8, 2008 20:59:32 GMT -5
Dum de doo.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 21:05:35 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Dec 8, 2008 21:05:35 GMT -5
Hey rysto. I tend to agree and disagree at the same time. Any reason why you say scum as opposed to PFK with some odd win condition? I mean yeah it sure doesn't feel like a PFK claim but what in the world could scum motivation be? I think that she's a scum bomb. If we lynch her, one of us dies. And now I feel like I am arguing with myself. If this is the concensus let's agree and either all vote as a bloc potentially getting another PFK or another scum as collateral damage. If we are concerned about that unnecessarily putting a potential town power role in harms way then choose random.org to place the vote(s) on her necessary for a lynch. Better yet, you get two vanillas to vote her and then it's still one for one. In any of the above scenarios you get a heck of a lot of data. What in the world am I missing? I know this is going against my stated preference for a no lynch of mmousenumer. But I just made the compelling argument in my own head.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 21:06:27 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Dec 8, 2008 21:06:27 GMT -5
FYI Rysto from Idle in Night Zero:
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 21:07:27 GMT -5
Post by special on Dec 8, 2008 21:07:27 GMT -5
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 21:11:13 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 8, 2008 21:11:13 GMT -5
You are assuming, however, that mmouse is taking the smartest and shrewdest possible action. I am not. mmouse is a newbie, admitted that she was "intimidated", and today has said little with all our votes on her. To me, that screams "rolling over and dying". It's not like it doesn't happen. Look at the Shadowfacts lynch that just happened on the Straight Dope. Here's my theory--mmouse had a PFK power that could help town, so she decided to come clean and hide behind the town. But when she said she was PFK, people started gunning for her, so she abandoned that strategy. Uhhh...what? As story mentioned (steal my thunder, why don't you?) no one was really gunning for her. Heck a few of us asked her for a full claim and to convince us why we shouldn't lynch her. Even with her non-response we still lynched someone who was, in retrospect, a townie over her. And as Ed mentioned (steal my thunder, why don't you?), scum can talk during the day. Hence why I mentioned Mallo aiding her yesterDay. Shadow rolled over and died in SDMB Mafia, but he said he was doing so. Heck, he even couldn't hold himself to that having to get one more post in. Even those who accept that they are going to be lynched try to get some last word in even if it's nothing more than "Town'll be sorry". mmouse has taken this whole thing rather Zen-like. Story makes an interesting point that she might have been trying to get herself vigged with her claim, but the point still remains that if she's a timebomb, our best choice is to ignore her. If we vig her, our vig dies. If we kill her, a non-scum dies, and odds say that it'll be a townie.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 21:15:49 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 8, 2008 21:15:49 GMT -5
If this is the concensus let's agree and either all vote as a bloc potentially getting another PFK or another scum as collateral damage. The only way we can get another scum is if the collateral damage is randomly determined. I really don't see scum taking out another scum on Day 2. (Unless scum have a detective who happened to out a scum traitor on night 1. Not likely.)
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 21:27:33 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Dec 8, 2008 21:27:33 GMT -5
But that's the point Hoopy if we all vote her and it's a randomn bomb element then there is the chance of collateral damage. If it's a self directed bomb then option three would be the best.
I am not that familiar with bombs. Never have had one in a game I have participated in. Are they typically random or self directed? Or is this going to be the typical it depends answer?
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 21:36:02 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Dec 8, 2008 21:36:02 GMT -5
Definitely a "it depends" situation. I'm not going to try to read Idle's mind any more than I have on this: a bomb could be random or it could be directed, it could take a night-killer who killed the bomb or it might not, etc. Which one Idle would have chosen -- assuming that mmouse really is a bomb -- would probably have been nailed down in the balancing phase.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 22:50:18 GMT -5
Post by mmouse9799 on Dec 8, 2008 22:50:18 GMT -5
OK, ASAP is sooner than I thought. mmouse is a weird subject. She's obviously going the Iago route - "demand me nothing. What you know, you know" - and we're not going to get her to give us more than that. Analyzing her actions so far brings up a bunch of possibilities. The first and most obvious is this: she is not a PFK who loses if she dies. One way or another, her win condition must contain some caveat that allows her to win even if she's dead. Let's start by taking her at her word, and assume that she's actually PFK. Now, either: (1) she wins immediately if she dies; or (2) she doesn't. If (1), then either (1A) she wins exclusively if she dies; or (1B) she wins if she dies but the game continues for the rest of us. Of these two, I discount 1A as rather unfair, and also rather boring from a design standpoint (why design a game that could be over by Dusk of Day One?). 1B is a possibility, but if it's the case, mmouse should die toDay, because it's no skin off our nose if she wins, and her death moves us toward our new win condition. Now let's move on to (2) mmouse dies with her outcome undetermined. From here we have multiple branching possibilities: (2A) She dies and her winning or losing is outside of her control; (2B) she dies and yet somehow gets to keep playing or influencing the outcome - think the Angel and Devil roles from Gastard; or (2C) she dies, but she is not a solo PFK - she has a partner (think sinjin and kassia from Blade Runner) and her death in some way forwards the cause of that PFK partnership. Of the three, 2A seems monumentally unlikely; why would a player court death so enthusiastically if that death ended her chance to influence winning or losing? 2B is absolutely possible, and so is 2C. If it's 2B, we'd really be better off keeping her alive, where she can be blocked, redirected, and so on as our available powers dictate. If 2C, she can die, because even if her partner benefits we're going to have to catch them both eventually. ----------------------------- Then there's the possibility that mmouse is lying, and is Scum. In such a case, her death may serve any number of possible ends, enough so that listing them all here wouldn't be very profitable. If she's a bomb, it's entirely possible that her ability to kill will only affect someone who has voted for her (either randomly or by her choice). Given that, if we come to the conclusion that she is going to be our lynch target toDay - and it looks like we're getting close to that point already - we should carefully discuss how to handle the voting process. ----------------------- So there it is. How to handle mmouse is beyond me right now. I agree that there is unlikely to be a full Vig, given that she survived the Night, but that does not mean that there aren't multiple potential Vigs out there. I don't know if we have a blocker, a redirector, or something even more exotic that might be able to handle her in a way other than lynching. I do know that: (1) lynching her seems almost mod-mandated, at this point, given the altered win condition; and (2) talking about it much more - other than from a technical perspective, as I allude above - isn't going to bear a lot more fruit. Given that, let's change the subject. I have something to mention, in my next post, shortly forthcoming. As a Lit. major, I must say Iago is about the last Shakespearean character to whom I ever expected to find myself compared. Interesting. But, Congratulations and Props: you figured me out.
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Day Two
Dec 8, 2008 23:12:16 GMT -5
Post by mmouse9799 on Dec 8, 2008 23:12:16 GMT -5
Oh, to appease one of your worries, I cannot end the game.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 9, 2008 2:10:07 GMT -5
I propose we don't listen to a fucking word mmouse says from here on out.
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Dec 9, 2008 2:43:39 GMT -5
What about if we chose the the second-most lynchable person today, and have him/her be the only person with a vote on mmouse? Isn't that better than random.org? Also, it'd give us a voting pattern to get information from rather than only votes on mmouse..
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Post by Total Ullz on Dec 9, 2008 5:46:00 GMT -5
I propose we don't listen to a fucking word mmouse says from here on out. But you still want to lynch her toDay?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 9, 2008 7:45:27 GMT -5
What about if we chose the the second-most lynchable person today, and have him/her be the only person with a vote on mmouse? Isn't that better than random.org? Also, it'd give us a voting pattern to get information from rather than only votes on mmouse.. We need at least two people who aren't mmouse to vote to avoid a tie, and hence a no-lynch. This is why peeker mentions the "two vanilla" suggestion.
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Post by Chucara on Dec 9, 2008 8:31:11 GMT -5
What about if we chose the the second-most lynchable person today, and have him/her be the only person with a vote on mmouse? Isn't that better than random.org? Also, it'd give us a voting pattern to get information from rather than only votes on mmouse.. We need at least two people who aren't mmouse to vote to avoid a tie, and hence a no-lynch. This is why peeker mentions the "two vanilla" suggestion. Aye, but why vanilla instead of someone(sometwo) we'd like to lynch anyway.. I'm thinking that if we get two people to volunteer to die for town, they're pretty much bound to not be scum, whereas if we force someone to volunteer, we'd at least have a chance of getting scum? Maybe we're just argueing over semantics here, I'm not really certain.
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Post by Chucara on Dec 9, 2008 8:32:44 GMT -5
The downside of the above obviously being that we risk lynching a power role.. *shrug* I don't know if the pros outweigh the cons.
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Post by Almost Human on Dec 9, 2008 8:42:13 GMT -5
What about if we chose the the second-most lynchable person today, and have him/her be the only person with a vote on mmouse? Isn't that better than random.org? Also, it'd give us a voting pattern to get information from rather than only votes on mmouse.. We need at least two people who aren't mmouse to vote to avoid a tie, and hence a no-lynch. This is why peeker mentions the "two vanilla" suggestion. Well if you do decide to go that route I don't mind volunteering to be one of the voters. Though I don't think it would confirm myself or whoever else votes as town in the slightest as chucara suggested. After all if mmousenumber is scum rather than pfk the rest of her team may well know that there's no risk involved in voting for her. Alternatively if she is pfk then scum may risk it in the hope that nothing will happen or if she is a bomb she can target whoever she wants. But the offer's there anyway. Oh and I forgot to confirm earlier that I also got the Mallow pm though I expect everyone will say that
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Post by MiteyMouse on Dec 9, 2008 9:23:17 GMT -5
I would be willing to vote for MMouse as well...I'm ok with being the victim of the bomb if she is one.
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Post by Zeriel on Dec 9, 2008 9:24:47 GMT -5
The downside of the above obviously being that we risk lynching a power role.. *shrug* I don't know if the pros outweigh the cons. I'll be the person to say it--nailing scum is more important than protecting power roles, and if we're hypothesizing that mmouse is a bomb, then I'd rather have a shot at scum and risk a power role than go the volunteer route and be assured of killing a vanilla. The experience of SDMB Mafia over on the SDMB has renewed my conviction that power roles are nice but not paramount, and I'm not of a mood to endorse any plan that lowers risk to power roles by killing vanillas for sure.
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Day Two
Dec 9, 2008 10:41:26 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 9, 2008 10:41:26 GMT -5
I propose we don't listen to a fucking word mmouse says from here on out. But you still want to lynch her toDay? Yes. I don't understand the intent of your question.
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