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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 18:47:21 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 8, 2009 18:47:21 GMT -5
KidV - 15 votes Kat - 15 votes Nanook - 15 votes Hoopy Frood - 15 votes MiteyMouse - 14 votes Almost Human - 14 votes Total Lost - 10 votes Zeriel - 10 votes sinjin - 10 votes misterblockey - 10 votes Cookies - 10 votes
Remember that anyone can UNvote anyone as many times as they want, as well.
You can even vote (or unvote) the same person in one post, so as long as it's only a max of five.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:03:11 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 19:03:11 GMT -5
Well, shit. That sucks... there's no getting rid of me Today, then, short of a lynch.
Here's the problem. I'm pretty sure that lynching scum Today would be about on par with trying to hit the broadside of a barn from the inside, but I'm not sure scum are the immediate threat.
In the WORST case scenario, we've got 5 spinies out there (presuming Santo lied, but there are two scum that DO have spinies). There's 11 players. Half-or-more is a good threshold for recruiter-types... we could be on the verge of a loss to the spiny-er.
We've lost our Vig, and our tame SK too, and it's an exercise in futility to lynch spinied players - that just prolongs the agony.
On the flip side, if you want to continue taking all claims at face value, we've got (probably) 2 scum and a PFK in a 5 person pool, and if those two scum are spinied, then taking one out can only help.
It gets sticky if we hit a scum that isn't spinied, though. Scum likely won't do us the favor of taking out a spinified player, if Santo is any guide, so after a lynch and a NK, it'll be nine players and a worst-case 6 spinies. Even if it's only 5, thats still a loss. Just the spinies we have now, +1, are a loss Tomorrow morning (assuming the spiny-er needs half or more).
Huh.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:24:46 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 19:24:46 GMT -5
What about my new post with the vote for her? Did you take that into consideration?
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:38:54 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 8, 2009 19:38:54 GMT -5
Yes.
The votes are correct.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:39:58 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 8, 2009 19:39:58 GMT -5
Hm..well, I thought they were correct. Teach me to be so smug and certain of myself. You're right..she should have 14 now.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:50:21 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 19:50:21 GMT -5
It looks like, if all of our confirmed are actually who they say they are, that town could just lynch everyone on the unconfirmed list one by one and make it. I don't like making that supposition, but if I did my numbers right we still have that Yep. There are 11 players. There are 2 or 3 scum remaining, and 1 likely PFK. With 2 scum, we have 3.5 mislynches before lylo. With 3 scum, we have 2.5 mislynches before lylo. Regardless, of how you look at it, with 5 unknowns we should be able to wrap this up. Because one of those mislynches will take out our PFK. The problem is, we need the PFK dead, and we don't have an SK anymore to help us. Barring an extra kill, odd win condition, or other mechanic, it doesn't seem like scum can win at this point. So scum will probably let Town sink or swim on its own. Scum could night kill from the unconfirmed if they wanted to help town, but they're not going to. At this point, if they can't win and they wanted to help town, they could just as well claim to narrow the pool further. But I'm not expecting help on that front. Unless scum really have a yen to not lose to the bomber. Though, if that were true, they probably would have left the SK in. Since any townie who was spinied would claim it, if we're lucky, there are no scum with spinies, this means only 3 out of 11 are spinied. Which gives us two Days, counting toDay. Any more than that, and toDay is the last day, barring a no-kill night. Unless, scum decide to just start whacking spiny confirmed to see how it all plays out. So we're in a really weird situation. How scum play will largely affect our chances of winning.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:54:14 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 19:54:14 GMT -5
It gets sticky if we hit a scum that isn't spinied, though. Scum likely won't do us the favor of taking out a spinified player, if Santo is any guide, so after a lynch and a NK, it'll be nine players and a worst-case 6 spinies. Even if it's only 5, thats still a loss. Just the spinies we have now, +1, are a loss Tomorrow morning (assuming the spiny-er needs half or more). Huh. Actually, if any scum are spinied we're hosed if we don't lynch the bomber or a spinied toDay. See my post above. We end up with 5 spinies out of 9 players toMorrow morning.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:54:54 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 19:54:54 GMT -5
Mass claim time, I think. I'll go work up an order.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 19:58:22 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 19:58:22 GMT -5
It gets sticky if we hit a scum that isn't spinied, though. Scum likely won't do us the favor of taking out a spinified player, if Santo is any guide, so after a lynch and a NK, it'll be nine players and a worst-case 6 spinies. Even if it's only 5, thats still a loss. Just the spinies we have now, +1, are a loss Tomorrow morning (assuming the spiny-er needs half or more). Huh. Actually, if any scum are spinied we're hosed if we don't lynch the bomber or a spinied toDay. See my post above. We end up with 5 spinies out of 9 players toMorrow morning. Thats what I'm saying - if you assume 50% as the wincon, then just the spinies we have now, plus one more tonight, minus a lynch and a nightkill, means we're at lylo to the spiny-er tomorrow.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 20:00:38 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 20:00:38 GMT -5
EBWOP, any more than 3+1, and we're at lylo right now.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 20:03:53 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 20:03:53 GMT -5
I'm going to hit up random.org
Everybody on the list, or just completely unconfirmed, or what? I have reservations about Nanook still, of course, he hasn't even verified his power to us. Might be time for a PM from Hoopy, just to be sure, and if we're gonna do that then ya'll might as well see mine as well.
Thoughts?
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 20:15:33 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 20:15:33 GMT -5
I'm going to hit up random.org Everybody on the list, or just completely unconfirmed, or what? I have reservations about Nanook still, of course, he hasn't even verified his power to us. Might be time for a PM from Hoopy, just to be sure, and if we're gonna do that then ya'll might as well see mine as well. Thoughts? I think we all should claim. Because we need to know all the powers we have out there so that we can figure out what we can do. At this point we have little to fear from scum knowing who we are. And the bomber really doesn't care since he's not killing us. As far as my PM, I gave it here: psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=woosh&action=display&thread=654&page=9#37803The only thing I left out was my name, and since I don't think revealing that is going to be an issue anymore, I am Wario.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 20:23:16 GMT -5
Post by MiteyMouse on Jan 8, 2009 20:23:16 GMT -5
You all know who I am. I agree that now might be a good time for us all to claim.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 20:39:05 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 8, 2009 20:39:05 GMT -5
I'm just going to claim now:
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 20:49:52 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 20:49:52 GMT -5
The only thing I left out was my name, and since I don't think revealing that is going to be an issue anymore, I am Wario. Actually, I just thought of something. We probably do want the unnamed confirmed to claim last. Because we know they'll be truthful. If the name is relevant to who's dropping the spinies, they'll no doubt try to change their name. They might take someone who's already taken. So I think the unconfirmeds should claim first. Cookies has started. Though I encourage everyone to let it happen randomly. Otherwise, our spiny guy will probably try to go last.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 21:08:43 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 8, 2009 21:08:43 GMT -5
no I started but whatever
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 21:25:38 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 21:25:38 GMT -5
Claim order: 3. Total Lost 13. Sinjin 5. Zeriel 21. Cookies 18. misterblockey 6. Kat 15. Almost Human 23. Nanook 2. KidV 4. MiteyMouse 14. Hoopy Frood
Please post full PMs, guys.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 21:59:40 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 21:59:40 GMT -5
One more idea.
I think all unconfirmed should unvote one of the other unconfirmeds. I think the order should be based on random.org as well. Feel free to justify your unvote or not. Can you generate us another list, KidV?
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 22:18:52 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 22:18:52 GMT -5
Also, can the Spinied restate what night they got spinied?
I know KidV was Night 5.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 22:38:41 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 22:38:41 GMT -5
One more idea. I think all unconfirmed should unvote one of the other unconfirmeds. I think the order should be based on random.org as well. Feel free to justify your unvote or not. Can you generate us another list, KidV? Sure... whats this going to do, though? 5. Zeriel 21. Cookies 18. misterblockey 13. Sinjin 3. Total Lost - vanilla
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Gir!
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 22:42:38 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jan 8, 2009 22:42:38 GMT -5
I got spinied at 12:36 AM Central Time, January 3, which was smack in the middle of Day Five. So, either the spiny-er can act during the Day, or Idle forgot to send the PM until then.
I wonder, did Mitey get anything from Idle that might explain why no WC change? Nanook theorized that there might be no PFK left, but if so, that would make the spiny-er either scum or Town, which makes little sense (yes, I know some of the other bits of this game make little sense, but still...).
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Gir!
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 22:49:51 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jan 8, 2009 22:49:51 GMT -5
A thought: Trying to learn how to fly quickly, most people found themselves flying upside down and backwards. What a kerfluffle! Underlining mine. I wonder if that means someone is not backwards, and will have their votes and unvotes count as normal. Somebody who's good at math might want to keep a close eye on the vote counts to make sure.
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Day Six
Jan 8, 2009 22:50:32 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 22:50:32 GMT -5
Sure... whats this going to do, though? 5. Zeriel 21. Cookies 18. misterblockey 13. Sinjin 3. Total Lost - vanilla Create some data points. Spur discussion. Who knows? The bomber is in those 5. A bomber would not usually claim Doctor or Detective, due to painting a target on his back for scum. Your a confirmed mason. Everyone else is confirmed by me. I think at this point, objectively it's highly unlikely I'm not what I say I am because any other Detective would be out by now. So one of those 5, 1 is the bomber, 2 or 3 are scum, and the last 1 or 2 are town. Shooting randomly we have a 2/5 chance of making it to toMorrow, by either taking out a spinied scum (if any) or taking out the bomber himself. I don't think Rugger was lying, because at that point he was still playing his gambit for chucara. So I don't think we have 5 spinies (in which case we only can win if we hit the bomber).
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 9, 2009 0:23:57 GMT -5
One more idea. I think all unconfirmed should unvote one of the other unconfirmeds. I think the order should be based on random.org as well. Feel free to justify your unvote or not. Can you generate us another list, KidV? That's a stupid idea, I'm sorry. I'll go ahead and Unvote Total Lostand Unvote Zerielbecause of my aforementioned point that their deaths would provide more information. I am only doing that because I have some actual minutia of reasoning behind it beyond the unconfirmed bit. I'll go ahead and wait to post my role pm just in case, although I did post the only truly relevant part of it already, the role name.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 9, 2009 0:25:36 GMT -5
to clarify I don't think that all the unconfirmed should have unvotes tossed at them. That's silly. I did however have reasoning and I figured I might as well get the data points out there rather than end up too late.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 9, 2009 0:26:49 GMT -5
The reason it's silly is because there's still the slight possibility of lylo and just blanket dropping the unconfirmed makes even subtle last ditch manipulation possible.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 9, 2009 1:51:20 GMT -5
A thought: Trying to learn how to fly quickly, most people found themselves flying upside down and backwards. What a kerfluffle! Underlining mine. I wonder if that means someone is not backwards, and will have their votes and unvotes count as normal. Somebody who's good at math might want to keep a close eye on the vote counts to make sure. No. KidV - 15 votes Kat - 15 votes Nanook - 15 votes Hoopy Frood - 15 votes MiteyMouse - 14 votes Almost Human - 14 votes sinjin - 10 votes misterblockey - 10 votes Cookies - 10 votes Total Lost - 9 votes Zeriel - 9 votes
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 9, 2009 4:15:22 GMT -5
If we are at Day 6 and we have 3 spiny-things maybe they only work every other Night. I can't remember right now, but I think AH was hit Night 1, Kat on Night 3 and now we got another in Night 5.
Sorry for the late PM (I was out all night yesterday and didn't even turn on the computer)
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Post by Almost Human on Jan 9, 2009 5:13:45 GMT -5
If we are at Day 6 and we have 3 spiny-things maybe they only work every other Night. I can't remember right now, but I think AH was hit Night 1, Kat on Night 3 and now we got another in Night 5. Sorry for the late PM (I was out all night yesterday and didn't even turn on the computer) Actually I got my spiney pm a minute before Day 3 started, Kat got hers on Day 5 and Kid got his toDay/last Night. vote hoopy vote Mighty Mouse vote Kid V vote nanook vote kat
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Post by Almost Human on Jan 9, 2009 5:17:11 GMT -5
vote Almost HumanBy the way thanks for investigating me hoopy - the suspicion on me would've caused a distraction otherwise so i'm glad that's out of the way. Now just in case cos Idle's a tricky bugger: Is there an unvote threshold for a hammer Idle? ie if someone reaches a certain number of unvotes are they automatically lynched?Just covering the bases so Kid doesn't get accidentally mod killed
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