Gir!
FGM
EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 20:13:41 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jan 11, 2009 20:13:41 GMT -5
Except that he didn't say he wasn't participating. He said he wasn't interacting with other unconfirmed players.
blockey's had 12 posts in the Day Six thread (with only 3 higher posters, one of which is Idle). Most of the posts were addressed towards Hoopy from what I can see, who isn't one of the unconfirmed.
He did have much smaller post counts in previous Days; though has indicated RL reasons for it. That doesn't mean he isn't scum with actual RL issues, just that his lurkiness isn't automatic scumminess. Additionally, combing over his posts and addressing the actual lurkiness would make sense if you're suspicious (Hoopy already gone over the posts on page 1, in fact), but that comment approaches twisting the meaning of his words.
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 20:15:24 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 11, 2009 20:15:24 GMT -5
The scenarios that follow are based on the following assumptions. We have 8 town, 2 scum and 1 PFK left. One scum is spinied. The Spiney Bunny wins if > 1/2 of all those alive are spinied. Scum have no interest in helping town win*. I want to state up-front I have no special knowledge that these assumptions are true. I'm taking this mainly from what Hoopy and KidV have said. If any of these assumptions is wrong, so goes the analysis.
Best case scenario.
We lynch an unknown today who turns out to be the Spiney Bunny. (1/5) Game Over, We Win.
Second best case scenario. We lynch an unknown who turns out to be a spinied scum.(1/5) Scum take out an unspinied town. *Shakes tiny fist at evil scum* Spiney Bunny spinies. Hoopy investigates and finds: a) The Spiney Bunny (1/4) Game over, we win tomorrow at dusk. b) The last scum (1/4) c) Town (1/2)
Alive = 9, town = 7, scum =1, Spiney Bunny = 1, spinied = 4
Worst case scenario:
We lynch an unknown today who turns out to be town or non-spinied scum. (3/5) Scum take out an unspinied town. *Bad scum, bad.* Hoopy investigates and finds *** makes no difference. Spiney Bunny places a new spiney.
Alive = 9, 5-6 town, 1-2 scum, 1 Spiney Bunny. Spinied = 5. Game Over, Spiney Bunny wins.
Town has a 25% chance of winning tonight or tomorrow at dusk, unfortunately we also have a 60% chance of losing tonight.
Alternate scenario:
We lynch a spinied town today. Scum take out a non-spinied town today. *Bastards* Spiney Bunny places a new spiney. Hoopy investigates and either finds: a) The Spiney Bunny. Game Over, We win at dusk tomorrow. (1/5) b) Town. (2/5) c) Scum. (2/5)
Alive = 9, 6 town, 2 scum, 1 Spiney Bunny, Spinied = 4.
Town has a 20% chance of winning at dusk tomorrow and a 0% chance of losing during this cycle.
I hope these numbers are right as I was rolling them around my my mind while in the car for 6 more fucking hours today.
*I haven't seen any scum sporting shirts that say "I'm with scummy" yet.
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 22:09:25 GMT -5
Post by MiteyMouse on Jan 11, 2009 22:09:25 GMT -5
Except that he didn't say he wasn't participating. He said he wasn't interacting with other unconfirmed players. blockey's had 12 posts in the Day Six thread (with only 3 higher posters, one of which is Idle). Most of the posts were addressed towards Hoopy from what I can see, who isn't one of the unconfirmed. He did have much smaller post counts in previous Days; though has indicated RL reasons for it. That doesn't mean he isn't scum with actual RL issues, just that his lurkiness isn't automatic scumminess. Additionally, combing over his posts and addressing the actual lurkiness would make sense if you're suspicious ( Hoopy already gone over the posts on page 1, in fact), but that comment approaches twisting the meaning of his words. 100% agreed! I think that Blockey has a good idea here so I'm going to... Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 22:35:24 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 11, 2009 22:35:24 GMT -5
Here's 4 more from me...
unvote zeriel unvote zeriel unvote zeriel unvote zeriel[/color]
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 22:45:40 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 11, 2009 22:45:40 GMT -5
KidV - 16 votes Kat - 16 votes Nanook - 16 votes Hoopy Frood - 16 votes MiteyMouse - 15 votes Almost Human - 15 votes sinjin - 10 votes Cookies - 10 votes misterblockey - 9 votes Total Lost - 8 votes Zeriel - (- 8) votes
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 22:54:33 GMT -5
Post by Zeriel on Jan 11, 2009 22:54:33 GMT -5
I could probably do the spam votes for myself thing, but somehow that seems unsporting.
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 22:59:07 GMT -5
Post by Zeriel on Jan 11, 2009 22:59:07 GMT -5
Y'know, at this point I realize I literally have nothing to lose by admitting I'm scum and not currently in possession of a spiny.
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Gir!
FGM
EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 23:23:40 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jan 11, 2009 23:23:40 GMT -5
Yeah? Can you tell us who else is scum?
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Day Six
Jan 11, 2009 23:33:10 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 11, 2009 23:33:10 GMT -5
Hmmm, ok. How confident are the rest of you feeling that the spiny-giver is not a scummy? I'd say about 70/30 personally.
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Gir!
FGM
EVIL Demon Goddess Mod
What? Kat is sweet and innocent!
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 0:14:24 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jan 12, 2009 0:14:24 GMT -5
I'm fairly sure the spiny-er is PFK. It wouldn't make sense to make it a scum role. (Of course, there's the small chance Idle may have defied sense in creating the role.)
I'd say about 85% certain of it.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 0:37:13 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 12, 2009 0:37:13 GMT -5
Yeah, the only thing that gives me pause is the wifom play of Rugger flaming out as he did, with respect to his statements about the spines.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 1:16:25 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 12, 2009 1:16:25 GMT -5
The other thing to keep in mind is that if the spinier is about to win, claiming scum would actually be a good move.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 3:23:14 GMT -5
Post by Almost Human on Jan 12, 2009 3:23:14 GMT -5
I think this is the only game I've played where two scum have outed themselves! unvote zeriel unvote zeriel unvote zeriel unvote zeriel unvote zerielThough if the spinier would like to claim too that would be nice
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Total Ullz
Administrator
You can take the girl out of mafia - but you can't take mafia out of the girl
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 4:25:45 GMT -5
Post by Total Ullz on Jan 12, 2009 4:25:45 GMT -5
I'll wait with my unvotes on Zeriel for now. He might be scum but why would he say it? I have never ever played a game with 2 (!) claiming scum and I'm a bit worrried that he might have a plan with the claim. It's all WiFoM (I know) but maybe we should talk about it still...
Santo made an efford in saying:
I can't help but think this is a way of hiding the actual number of scum. So we might have 2 left to hunt. I must admit I havn't done any work with numbers - but why would Santo give us this information just like that... if it wasn't untrue?
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 8:14:48 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 12, 2009 8:14:48 GMT -5
I'll wait with my unvotes on Zeriel for now. He might be scum but why would he say it? Actually, if you look at his record this game, he comes across, at least to me, as the scummiest of the lot of you. I was going to make a post at some point (this evening probably) detailing why I find him the scummiest, and why I wouldn't recommend voting for him toDay. Scum can wait. They are less of a threat to us at this point. As to why he would say it? Well, scum may have a trick up their sleeves remaining. Also, scum don't want to lose to the bomber anymore than we do. I do believe that if there is a bomber out there, Santo was telling the truth about being hit with a spiny. Also, along with my Zeriel is scum post, I was going to make a case as to why you come across as the least scummy to me, the main point being you bringing DBI to within one vote of bufftabby. Something that would be extremely unlikely for scum to do on Day 1. Particularly when it outed another scum who had to save the Godfather. (However, this indicates little on your status as the bomber, but it does work somewhat in your favor on that front, even.) Oh, they probably have a trick. But there's not a whole lot we can do about it. Oh, there are clearly at least 2 scum remaining. A 3 scum game with 3 masons, a detective, a doctor (I'm 95% nanook is what he says he is, since the only other doctor power we saw was a one-shot), an inactive jack-of-all-one-shots, and a inactive one-shot vig on the town side, in a 25 player game, would be grossly underpowered for scum, even with an SK thrown into the mix. Heck, I think 4 is still underpowered. So yeah, I'm really not liking the unvotes on zeriel. I think he's scum, and better saved for another Day. I'd rather hit the bomber. Our best bet is to try to find the person who is trying to act townie, but be meek enough that scum will try to hit other people. As Ed said, he was attempting to play scummy enough that scum wouldn't want to kill him, but townie enough that town wouldn't want to lynch him. Unfortunately, we can't get much from blockey analysis at all. Normally, if we were just lynching unconfirmeds, I'd say he'd be a great lynch candidate just for that reason. However, we need to do some analysis on Cookies and Sinjin. I thinking the bomber is somewhere in the Cookies/Sinjin/Blockey pool, and there'll be at least one scum in there as well. And because I don't think he is the right choice for us toDay: vote zeriel vote zeriel vote zeriel vote zeriel vote zeriel
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 10:53:23 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 12, 2009 10:53:23 GMT -5
I don't know how to follow your lines in the sand, Hoopy. As Blockey pointed out, Zeriel could be the Spine-giver false-claiming as scum for the very reason you have his name in backwards blue: to perhaps eek out another Day and another spine victim to get that much closer to whatever his win condition might be.
You're basing your analysis on Zeriel being scum because he's ping'd you as the scummiest of the unknowns if you look back through the whole game. While at the same time you caution us that the Spine-giver will likely be playing scummy enough that the scum wouldn't go after him, and townie enough that the town wouldn't go after him.
Doesn't Zeriel's play so far in the game fit into your suggested "playing both sides" strategy? And wouldn't false-claiming as scum also fit into a PFK strategy to do whatever it takes to survive another Day/Night cycle?
I'm all for PFK-killing ToDay, but everywhere I turn I see WIFOM, and when I try on your perspective to see how it fits, none of that WIFOM goes away.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 13:06:31 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 12, 2009 13:06:31 GMT -5
I think the key thing is someone with a scummy enough case against them who wasn't scum would have been jumped on by Rugger and/or DBI since both were flinging things left and right to see what could stick. Both our outed PFK's came under fire by Rugger, and Zeriel comes across as considerably more scummy than Chucara ever did, and I see a subtlety in his playstyle that I don't see in Ed's.
One of the basic strategies for scum is to see who's acting scummy that isn't scum and get them lynched. Zeriel hasn't taken much heat this game other than from confirmed town or TotalLost, who I'm pretty sure is town.
It's why I don't think he's the bomber.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 13:42:20 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 12, 2009 13:42:20 GMT -5
Ok, then I'm not exactly sure how the rest of this day is going to go, since I'm apparently one of three (possibly 4) people y'all are going to hang today instead of Zeriel. Is this going to end up like an inverse final three tribal council on Survivor?
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 16:19:29 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 12, 2009 16:19:29 GMT -5
Boy have we flat-lined over here...
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 17:42:11 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 12, 2009 17:42:11 GMT -5
KidV - 16 votes Kat - 16 votes Nanook - 16 votes Hoopy Frood - 16 votes MiteyMouse - 15 votes Almost Human - 15 votes sinjin - 10 votes Cookies - 10 votes misterblockey - 9 votes Total Lost - 8 votes Zeriel - (- 8) votes
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:10:46 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 12, 2009 18:10:46 GMT -5
Hoopy, my friend*, I'm not sure what the hell we're supposed to be doing. Looking for the elusive essence of the PFK who is scummy but not too scummy and townie but not too townie and was attacked by DBI and Santo? Cool, I didn't know there was a formula. And I guess if the hypothetical two of us amongst the unconfirmed fail, the loss will be our fault. I feel like just voting myself off the island twice so I can get on with my life. Hey confirmed. We did what you wanted. We pointed out who we thought was scummiest and caught a scum of some sort. What is it game over for you? You're confirmed town so now you want to sit back and watch us unconfirmed mud wrestle for a seat in the final four. Bite me**. *sinjin channels John McCain **rest of post is proof positive that sinjin is not a member in good standing of any political set.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:28:05 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 12, 2009 18:28:05 GMT -5
You're confirmed town so now you want to sit back and watch us unconfirmed mud wrestle for a seat in the final four. Will you wear bikinis while mud wrestling? Well, except blockey and Zeriel, unless their in to that sort of thing, of course. I mean, who am I to judge someone else's preferences.... Anyway, I think what some of you are failing to grasp, and I intentionally left out this little point from my earlier post just to see people's reactions, is that if zeriel is lying, the scum are likely to out him when one of them is sure to swing. Why? Because unless they've fully resigned themselves to a loss, they want town to take out the bomber. Right now town looks to be in a much better position than scum. There is no reason to expect them to take out the bomber via their night kill. And if the bomber were to lie and claim scum, the bomber would clearly have to have made a huge judgement error, or would have to think scum are finished and won't out him. I could see a bomber doing this in a Day or Two hence. But Day 5? With only two scum down? And one of those was a goon? And multiple built-in anti-town game-mechanics (i.e. rotating win conditions, funky voting stuff)? And all town power roles outed? In other words, you have to assume a few things to draw this conclusion: 1) Scum are officially defeated. 2) The Bomber is willing to risk claiming scum with only a numbers game indicating the above. (Since no one knows what powers scum have remaining. An extra kill mechanism for them would balance things considerably.) 3) The Bomber is counting on scum not to out him anyway even if they are defeated. Do you really think scum are going to necessarily let him get away with it? Hell, Idle outed me as the last PFK scum in gastard after he died. And there was no strategic reason for him to do so. So all those jumping on my case, I ask you: Would you take that risk? If so, why?
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:29:59 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 12, 2009 18:29:59 GMT -5
Oh, and I forgot to do this:
vote Zeriel vote Zeriel vote Zeriel vote Zeriel vote Zeriel
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:31:21 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 12, 2009 18:31:21 GMT -5
And just because I really don't think she's a good lynch for toDay, though she's sitting in second place: vote Total Lost vote Total Lostl vote Total Lost vote Total Lost vote Total Lost
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:32:09 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 12, 2009 18:32:09 GMT -5
NETA: Uhhh, that wasn't supposed to be in quote tags.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:34:28 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 12, 2009 18:34:28 GMT -5
You want to see someone your mom's age in a bikini? Cool BRB.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:41:14 GMT -5
Post by Zeriel on Jan 12, 2009 18:41:14 GMT -5
You want to see someone your mom's age in a bikini? Cool BRB. If you look as good as my mom, then hell yes. (You can't win these kind of games with me in the room)
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 18:46:24 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 12, 2009 18:46:24 GMT -5
A couple of people found the PM-comparison case against Zeriel to be somewhat compelling, while I considered it quite obvious. The fact that he came back shortly thereafter and admitted to being scum who had "no reason not to claim" made further conversation about his PM seemingly moot, but I'm still wondering if anyone else found it to stick out as obviously as it did to me. I don't know if I can be objective, since it was the similarities to my own PM that stood out to me.
So my question to everyone else is, what (if anything) do you deduce from the combination of Zeriel's PM quote and the subsequent claim to be scum?
And if we don't lynch Zeriel, who is it going to be? I'm willing to consider another target, and I will do my best to to stand up to scrutiny and be held accountable for my actions so far in this game, but I don't have a bead on any of the other unconfirmed players at this point.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 19:22:57 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 12, 2009 19:22:57 GMT -5
So my question to everyone else is, what (if anything) do you deduce from the combination of Zeriel's PM quote and the subsequent claim to be scum? And if we don't lynch Zeriel, who is it going to be? I'm willing to consider another target, and I will do my best to to stand up to scrutiny and be held accountable for my actions so far in this game, but I don't have a bead on any of the other unconfirmed players at this point. I believe Zeriel. Right now, it is in scum's best interest to out someone if they want town to take out the spiny dropper. Look at the numbers. We have 5 unconfirmed. Of those, one is a bomber, one is town, two are scum, and one is completely unknown depending on what the final balance is, and with the kooky mechanics, we can't game this one by JSexton's formula alone. Now if there are 3 scum and we random lynch, we have a 60% chance of hitting scum. And only a 20% chance of hitting the bomber. If there are 2 scum, we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and still only a 20% chance of hitting the bomber. But if one of those scum who is expendable outs himself, we now have dramatically better chances of taking out the bomber. Remember, scum only need one person alive to win. In Doperville we scum managed to tie town's numbers resulting in coin flip lynches for the last 4 Days if it had come to it. We only had a 6.67% chance of losing the game at that point. We managed to win the first flip. So scum sacrificing one of their own is not a bad play. Particularly if town can take out the bomber for them by doing it. And if they save their more powerful members for later, they will buy themselves possibly 2 Days (we hit the bomber one Day and Zeriel the other) to work whatever machinations they have. Now, I will say that there is one very good reason why I am not fully opposed to a Zeriel lynch. I won't say it yet, because I want people to keep talking. I'll will mention it either later today or sometime tomorrow, but well before Day end. Rugger's discussions during his last Hours in this game are a big part of why I can be convinced to vote Zeriel. But we were way to ready to send him packing, and I think that it could be a rash decision. And understand, Zeriel, that if you can figure out what I'm getting at, feel free to try to state why I'm wrong in my suspicions. If you want another hint as to what I'm getting at, I'll give you one.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 19:48:52 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 12, 2009 19:48:52 GMT -5
Ok, I'll take a few steps back from Zeriel.
Vote zeriel Vote zeriel Vote zeriel Vote zeriel Vote zeriel[/color]
In the unconfirmed pool that remains, I know my own alignment, and I'm left to decide between blockey and sinjin. I'm inclined to still look at Total Lost as well, but agree with some of the pro-town observations that have been made about her.
My only real read on either blockey or sinjin at this time, is that blockey pointed out that a spine-giver Zeriel might claim scum to buy himself some time to try and spine again (which would be a reasonable thing for the true spine-giver to try and point out), and sinjin snuggled me as town for reasons I don't really understand. Any unconfirmed claimed vanilla at this point should get at least a dubious look simply for surviving, yet sinjin gave me a snuggle.
I'm going to look at them both (and Total Lost again, just to be sure) and will try and come back with my best guess at whack-a-pfk.
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