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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 20:06:54 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 12, 2009 20:06:54 GMT -5
That was not a snuggle Cookies. It was just my opinion of your play with a caveat that you had fooled me in the past. Rest assured that a lynch of me today will be a mislynch. Well actually, maybe not, I will be back tomorrow if we don't lose to the Spiney Bunny tonight.
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Day Six
Jan 12, 2009 22:05:59 GMT -5
Post by MiteyMouse on Jan 12, 2009 22:05:59 GMT -5
Ok...I admit that I'm not the best player and have very limited experience but, I have never seen Scum give up so easily, much less 2 in the same game. I'm going to have to do a seious reread before I take anymore action. I am tired now and need some sleep...I have the day off tomorrow and will wrap my head around it then. Night everyone!
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 9:00:59 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 13, 2009 9:00:59 GMT -5
Hoopy, you quoted yourself voting five times...I don't know if you meant those as votes for not, but I didn't count them just in case you didn't. Your first set, however, is counted..and along with Cookies' votes, the count is currently:
KidV - 16 votes Kat - 16 votes Nanook - 16 votes Hoopy Frood - 16 votes MiteyMouse - 15 votes Almost Human - 15 votes sinjin - 10 votes Cookies - 10 votes misterblockey - 9 votes Total Lost - 8 votes Zeriel - 2 votes
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 13:21:45 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 13, 2009 13:21:45 GMT -5
With slightly less than 24 hours to go, I will say why I am not opposed to a Zeriel lynch, but it's not simply because he's scum.
The scum want (and possibly need) us to lynch the bomber. The big question is why?
Rugger mentioned when he was trying to strike a deal with Chucara how the scum win cycle was changing and guessed that Chucara's was as well. Chucara admitted that his was not (and I'm pretty sure Chuc was being honest about that).
Now, we all figured that scum would target a town power role (at least I did, and apparently KidV did based on his comments earlier). But they didn't. It might be because they viewed a tame SK as a bigger threat, but it might also be because they needed the SK dead to meet their win condition. What if scum never planned to target town last night at all, regardless of what chucara did? The obvious play would be for the Doc to protect me anyway, so scum would lose a kill if they tried to take me out. So chucara takes out the doc, and scum take me out toNight. That way scum not only don't lose a townie power-role kill that night, but they take out a PFK as well. And our win condition didn't cycle, yet if there is a bomber, there is likely a PFK remaining. It's quite possibler that scum's condition is to kill all PFK at this point, and they have the power to freeze the win condition at some point. We have now taken out all 3rd parties save the bomber. If we go shooting for the bomber toDay, we could possibly hand the game to scum, since our win condition at this point says we must defeat all scum to win.
So we have a choice:
1) Try to take out the bomber, and risk losing to scum.
2) Try to take out scum, and risk losing to the bomber.
We essentially are winning the numbers game, but we can lose based on the win condition game. (Which is probably the most anti-town mechanic in this game, even more so than splitting the town while allowing scum to fully coordinate, because at least Day 4 gave us potential extra data points and an extra lynch to compensate. Cycling win conditions when we can neither control them, nor know what the other parties have, nor even know for certain who the other parties are is very anti-town, because town can lose by playing well if the luck aspect doesn't swing their way.)
So I guess the question is, would Idle have made a game that could be won by a bomber by Dawn of Day 6 if everything worked out in that bomber's favor? (I.e. all scum and sk kills go through, no lynch is stopped, and no bomb target has died). A short game for 25 people, especially with the oddities that we've seen. I don't know.
I know who I want to see swing if we decide to shoot for the bomber, but I won't reveal it at this point, because I don't want scum to be taking out the bomber tonight. If we take out any of the unconfirmed, we narrow their pool if they're going for elimination of PFK. And any people we vote for can give them ideas as to who the bomber might be. I want to know what everyone thinks on this. I'm actually kind of leaning back toward a lynch of Zeriel, but we have a bit of time to discuss it.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 13:36:52 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 13, 2009 13:36:52 GMT -5
I am cool with taking out Zeriel toDay. My only concern is that if he is telling the truth (ha, scum telling the truth) his lynch falls into my worst case scenario and the bomber wins toNight as long as scum don't take him/her out. As you may have noted I'm a bit concerned about the Spiney guy. I feel that we have this game essentially won if we don't make any gross mistakes. I just have an itchy feeling about this.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 13:38:23 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 13:38:23 GMT -5
Ok I don't have much time right now, but I want to get this out so it can be talked about.
Out of all of the unconfirmed, cookies has been dominating the conversation today. I have to say that while we all need to talk, it occurs to me that's exactly what a bomber would want to do, particularly if nearly at a win.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 13:55:04 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 13, 2009 13:55:04 GMT -5
I am cool with taking out Zeriel toDay. My only concern is that if he is telling the truth (ha, scum telling the truth) his lynch falls into my worst case scenario and the bomber wins toNight as long as scum don't take him/her out. Correct, but as I said worse case scenario means that the bomber could have one by this morning. In discussion I've had with NAF both concerning the gastard game and in the game I'm designing with Rysto and him, one should shoot for around 8 days. If it gets too long, people lose interest and the game drags (witness both Arkham and Gastard, which really slowed town at the end), but if it's too short, people can feel robbed. (This refers to the large games of course, the ones with 20+ people. Smaller games naturally run quicker.) So I don't know if Idle would have worked a standard bomber into this game given everything else we've seen. I mean, a standard bomber has a much easier win condition than the SK did (i.e. everyone must be dead, but auto lose if scum aren't the last one you kill) if chucara was on the level.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 13:55:50 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 13, 2009 13:55:50 GMT -5
NETA: In that first sentence "one" = "won".
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 13:56:14 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jan 13, 2009 13:56:14 GMT -5
I just don't know if we can accept anything the scum have said as truth. As Hoopy says, we don't know what their win con is, we don't even know for a fact that there is a bomber. What we do know is that our win con says scum dead, and Zeriel has claimed to be a scum. I think our best bet is to just go with our current win con, and lynch the claimed scum. I just don't see Idle making a game that could end overNight Tonight with a solo win.
Oh and regarding the bomber, if we assume he exists, I'm now wondering if that's who targeted me on Night Two. My role doesn't state what I can protect against, just that I can protect. It's not out of the question that I can block the spinies as well as NKs. If that is the case, I REALLY don't believe we're going to lose overNight to the bomber, and our best bet is almost certainly to kill Zeriel.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 13:57:04 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 13, 2009 13:57:04 GMT -5
Rats, I just had another bad thought, what if Zeriel is lying not about being spinied but about being scum at all. Then it's possible that by taking him out we might give our win to the scum. Gah, I get such tunnel vision sometimes.
Maybe we should hold off on Zeriel until Tomorrow so Hoopy can investigate him.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:01:27 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 14:01:27 GMT -5
not the above good god not what sinjin said hoopy do not investigate zeriel, either he's scum or the spiny bomber, there's no point in investigating him. I'm about 50% sure sinjin is scum as well now.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:03:09 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 13, 2009 14:03:09 GMT -5
Huh? Why?
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:04:23 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 14:04:23 GMT -5
only 50% sure because the spinier might also say that to avoid being investigated, and there's a tiny, say 5% chance that sinjin is the other town and had just completely lost her mind.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:05:27 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 13, 2009 14:05:27 GMT -5
I also don't understand Blockey's reaction. We have nothing else to figure out except which flavor of not-town Zeriel is.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:07:25 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 13, 2009 14:07:25 GMT -5
My bad. If he's scum we still have to find the bomber in the remaining unknowns, if we still have that opportunity upon his reveal.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:10:32 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 13, 2009 14:10:32 GMT -5
I'm sorry, I've just been obsessing about the spinier since KidV made his post at the start of the Day. I've never made up a game, don't know how to balance a game or any of that meta-gamey stuff.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:12:53 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 14:12:53 GMT -5
There is no town reason to claim scum, ergo zeriel is either scum or the pfk bomber. We then KNOW that he has to go, and there's far less net gain in investigating him, than in anyone else in the unconfirmed pile.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:23:21 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 14:23:21 GMT -5
Right now I'm looking for the spinier, from my perspective we have unconfirmed Total Lost, Sinjin, Zeriel, and Cookies.
Total Lost: I haven't been getting much of a read, but she has been riding zeriel all game. Sinjin: just seriously proposed a plan to cut net town information in 1/2 Zeriel: claimed scum, removed from the equation for the moment. Cookies: Has been dominating the conversation and subtly removing herself from contention. initially agreed with concept of cutting town info in 1/2
So then from there I have my first split: I can try to
A)Lynch Zeriel: either scum or a daring ploy by the pfk, a reasonable choice
B)Choose a lynch target from Sinjin, Total, and Cookies
At this point I have another qualitative split:
Sinjin's suggestion has put me in the mind of a scum move to buy time. So I'm leaning towards the thought that either Total or Cookies is the bomber. This is a gut reaction though, and my gut has certainly been wrong before.
Total and Cookies have both been giving off a townie vibe, but a pfk with no perfect information can certainly manage that.
Total has been slightly quieter than normal today, which combined with the facebook snuggle syndrome is a reasonable strategy for the pfk
Cookies has been dominating the conversation today, and with a pool of unconfirmeds to move in at least 50% of whom are scum from the pfk's perspective, that's a reasonable strategy as well.
This is where I stand at the moment, and I feel like we need to find a target fairly quickly so we can start really digging a hole.
I realize I have left myself out of this. I'm giving you my thought processes, and I know I'm town, but I don't expect you to just take my word for it. I'm simply going to await the cases that are likely to be thrown at me and rebuke them as best I can when they come up.
Right now my gut says to go for cookies, but I'd like some other input first.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:27:10 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 13, 2009 14:27:10 GMT -5
I think we're all clear that Zeriel is not town. What isn't crystal clear to me is why using an investigation to determine if he's the bomber would be an inherently bad idea.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:35:44 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 13, 2009 14:35:44 GMT -5
You don't think a high level of participation might be a strategy for an unconfirmed vanilla townie basically being told to "dance, motherfucker!" at gunpoint?
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 14:51:10 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 14:51:10 GMT -5
Just because something is a reasonable strategy for a pfk, doesn't mean it's also not reasonable for town, the problem I'm having is that I know I'm town and I'm 98% sure only one other unconfirmed is town. Therefore it's reasonable of me to look at townie behavior and think, "Would a pfk do that?"
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:00:13 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Jan 13, 2009 15:00:13 GMT -5
Given Hoopy listed these as our choices it seemed like a good idea if we knew whether zeriel was the bomber or a scum so we could actually ya know make a choice.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:00:41 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 15:00:41 GMT -5
Screw it.
I'm tired of this thought process and honestly don't think that we're at LyLo
Zeriel has to die anyway, so let's get his information by killing him.
(town has two means of gaining info, killing and investigating. Since we know zeriel has to die anyway, an investigation would be a waste when we can just kill)
Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:00:52 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 15:00:52 GMT -5
Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:01:02 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 15:01:02 GMT -5
Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:01:09 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 15:01:09 GMT -5
Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel Unvote Zeriel
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:03:36 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 15:03:36 GMT -5
more to follow later as precaution
It's far more likely that we lose to the bomber than the scum at this point, but on the off chance that zeriel is the bomber trying to hide as scum I'm ok today. I'll be happier tomorrow when we have another unconfirmed investigated.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:07:22 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 13, 2009 15:07:22 GMT -5
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:14:59 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jan 13, 2009 15:14:59 GMT -5
I agree hoopy, I just feel like we need to pick someone right about NOW to avoid the risk of last minute vote turning by the accused, and I'm getting 0 backup.
My gut feeling on cookies is nowhere near strong enough for me to try and just make the decision unilaterally.
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Day Six
Jan 13, 2009 15:25:28 GMT -5
Post by Zeriel on Jan 13, 2009 15:25:28 GMT -5
Frankly, blockey, you sound a bit frantic to me. And I know you ain't my buddy.
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