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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 9:19:06 GMT -5
In re-reading I came across this statement: Note that I will not vote for myself, because I know I'm town. This is my own personal moment of zen this game. My vote is down, I've made my case, I'm done.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 20, 2009 10:05:35 GMT -5
In re-reading I came across this statement: Note that I will not vote for myself, because I know I'm town. This is my own personal moment of zen this game. My vote is down, I've made my case, I'm done. The difference between you and me here, sinjin, is that you're absolutely sure I'm scum. So sure that your case consists of quixotically making datapoints fit your conclusion rather than the other way around. You're blind to your own certainty. If you really are town, you're playing horribly. Me, I don't know if you're scum for sure. But the way I see it, you were the best choice going into toDay, and the way you've come to the conclusion that you're extremely shaky case is clearly infallible, you're complete "one-trackiness" of my having to be scum, hasn't changed my mind in the least on that one.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 20, 2009 10:10:09 GMT -5
When does the Day end again?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 20, 2009 10:26:45 GMT -5
When does the Day end again? In a little over two real-time days, or when the hammer falls, whichever comes first.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 10:34:55 GMT -5
The difference between you and me here, sinjin, is that you're absolutely sure I'm scum. <snip> Me, I don't know if you're scum for sure. <snip> Did you forget these interchanges: sinjin: Hoopy's reply: sinjin: Hoopy's reply: LAL, Hoopy.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 20, 2009 11:10:47 GMT -5
Vote Sinjin
If she does turn out to be scum I think we should lynch Hoopy toMorrow.
And just a thought - why don't we make it so KidV doesn't hammer but we get enough votes to end toMorrow. Then we might be one more uncomfirmed down??
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 20, 2009 11:14:23 GMT -5
Vote SinjinIf she does turn out to be scum I think we should lynch Hoopy toMorrow. And just a thought - why don't we make it so KidV doesn't hammer but we get enough votes to end toMorrow. Then we might be one more uncomfirmed down?? If she turn out NOT to be scum - sorry for that one!
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 11:18:26 GMT -5
Vote SinjinIf she does turn out to be scum I think we should lynch Hoopy toMorrow. And just a thought - why don't we make it so KidV doesn't hammer but we get enough votes to end toMorrow. Then we might be one more uncomfirmed down?? Note to town: After my second mislynch and Hoopy's subsequent lynch take a look at the Hoopy/ totallost connection and the second paragraph above and consider her for the lylo on Day 10. Recall that she was Hoopy's latest investigation.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 20, 2009 11:20:24 GMT -5
And just a thought - why don't we make it so KidV doesn't hammer but we get enough votes to end toMorrow. Then we might be one more uncomfirmed down?? Not a bad idea, but being that it requires 7 out of 8 to hammer, we'll all have to agree on a choice and KidV will have to agree to not be the last to vote that person.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 20, 2009 11:21:48 GMT -5
And just a thought - why don't we make it so KidV doesn't hammer but we get enough votes to end toMorrow. Then we might be one more uncomfirmed down?? Not a bad idea, but being that it requires 7 out of 8 to hammer, we'll all have to agree on a choice and KidV will have to agree to not be the last to vote that person. With also indicates we only have one scum left to hunt, right? Anyway - it something to talk about before toMorrow starts.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 20, 2009 11:29:06 GMT -5
Note to town: After my second mislynch and Hoopy's subsequent lynch take a look at the Hoopy/ totallost connection and the second paragraph above and consider her for the lylo on Day 10. Recall that she was Hoopy's latest investigation. Yes, because obviously the sneaky scum detective who claimed when there was no indication that town didn't have a detective of their own other than a potential one-shot and so would pretty much be sunk by a counterclaim would wait until his investigation 2 Days later after the claim to insulate a fellow scum. Really, what makes my "latest investigation" so special over any other one?
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 12:05:01 GMT -5
Grrr, when I did my best and worst case scenario's on the previous page I thought we had only 7* players left. That's why I was in such a panic today. Deep breaths. Ok with the new totallost/Hoopy plan to off KidV along with me today the best case scenario if you can bring yourselves to lynch Hoopy tomorrow becomes:
Assume 2 scum and 6 town (including KidV)
Day 8: lynch sinjin and unhammer KidV (4 town remaining) Night 8: scum kill (3) Day 9: lynch Hoopy (1 scum remaining) Night 9: scum kill (2 town remaining) Day 10: lylo
Well heck right back where we were.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 20, 2009 13:01:48 GMT -5
Total, thats a horrible plan, IMHO... we have time on our side, now is not the time to accelerate the schedule in hopes of an erly win. Having said that, if it is the will of Town, I will not hammer the vote today. It'd be a mistake, but of course you all don't know that. I'm really down with a Sinjin lynch. She's getting frantic, and this could be Townie who doesn't want to lose, but it feels much more like a Scum player looking down the barrel of a loss. I said earlier, a Town player facing the noose has the comfort of knowing their death provides critical info to Town. A Scum player also knows what critical information Town will recieve upon their death, but isn't comforted by that info at all. The fuzzy math isn't helping either. We have time, there's no need for her to flail if she's Town. Feels like Scum grasping at straws. I'm not going to vote for Sinjin at this time, in case I need to hammer, but if I was voting that'd be where I'd put it. Please to note that this does not indicate that I'm comfortable with Hoopy, at all, and I'm sure he'd feel the same way were the situation reversed. But we've got time on our side, Town is still in control of this. Assuming 6 Town and 2 Scum, we're at three mislynches. If we're wrong about Sinjin, that brings it to two mislynches, and then we've got a choice, depending on what happens overnight. I think it looks something like this ... If Sinjin turns up scum, and Hoopy is NK'd, we take out Cookies next, and in any sane universe, that'll be game over. If Sinjin turns up scum, and Hoopy returns a scum result on Cookies, ditto. If Sinjin turns up scum, and Hoopy returns anything else on Cookies, I think we lynch him, because things just got really fuzzy. Alternatively, if Sinjin turns up Town, and Hoopy ISN'T nk'd, I think we need to lynch him at that point, to be sure that we don't have to use our 3rd (last) mislynch on him later. I'm saying it doesn't matter what he returns on Cookies, if Sinjin isn't Scum then something is funky. I think.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 20, 2009 13:03:05 GMT -5
Grrr, when I did my best and worst case scenario's on the previous page I thought we had only 7* players left. That's why I was in such a panic today. Deep breaths. Ok with the new totallost/ Hoopy plan to off KidV along with me today the best case scenario if you can bring yourselves to lynch Hoopy tomorrow becomes: Assume 2 scum and 6 town (including KidV) Day 8: lynch sinjin and unhammer KidV (4 town remaining) Night 8: scum kill (3) Day 9: lynch Hoopy (1 scum remaining) Night 9: scum kill (2 town remaining) Day 10: lylo Well heck right back where we were. I think you're being unfair. I never said we would unhammer KidV toDay. I said - let's talk about the possibility to do this toMorrow.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 13:12:04 GMT -5
It doesn't make any difference total if you do the hammer thing today or tomorrow we are still at lylo on Day 10 with your plan. Hoopy said 7/8 to hammer which is the situation today not tomorrow. I'm sorry if you don't like my math KidV. I made a stupid mistake, recognized it when Hoopy said 7/8 for the hammer today and I corrected it.
I give up.
unvote Hoopy
vote sinjin
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 20, 2009 13:31:03 GMT -5
Unofficial vote count:
Sinjin - 5 votes (Hoopy, Almost Human, Miteymouse, Total Lost, Sinjin).
Probably best to have no more votes... one more, and the Scum will be in reach of the hammer vote, and Town will lose a mislynch.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 13:35:29 GMT -5
For all of you saying I'm fighting too hard too be town all I can say is: * bufftabby* And if Hoopy stops lying about me I will stop posting.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 20, 2009 13:59:01 GMT -5
For all of you saying I'm fighting too hard too be town all I can say is: * bufftabby* And if Hoopy stops lying about me I will stop posting. I don't think you're fighting too hard to be town. I think you're so dismissive of the holes in your case against me that you're scum. You've refused to see pro-town motivations in anything I've done, and only look for pro-scum, even when the pro-town motivations are far more likely. You shift your datapoints to fit your conclusion. (Really, scum claiming Detective on Day 5 without any pressure? Even when you said that scum have been playing conservatively? How in the Hell is that a conservative play by scum? I'm not saying scum would never do that, but that's not conservative. Yet you used scum conservatism as support of one your other arguments against me.) Or my mention how the Masons have a separate win condition was clearly a pro-scum maneuver to smudge KidV. Of course it couldn't be that a townie me saw that the Masons weren't fully allied with town, and in fact, this very fact was confirmed by our Mason, but no, you never even entertained the idea that I could be telling the truth. You've created this whole case against me based on a premise you've already come to a conclusion of so you can conveniently ignore the points that don't agree, and you've only taken into consideration the second half of the game. You haven't even looked at the first half of the game in your case against me. Your case is dishonest. Yes town can build dishonest cases mistakenly, but scum do it intentionally. And then you smudge Total Lost for coming up with an idea you disagree with, even though it has some merit. It might not be the right choice, or even a good choice, but we've seen worse ideas posited by townies this game. And then if disagreeing with her idea isn't enough, you smudge her by saying I investigated her, and did so on my last investigation, so she's a good lynch choice. And you accuse me of hubris?
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 14:19:45 GMT -5
Hoopy I've fully explained why I came to think you are scum already. To put it briefly: I totally believed in you until Mr. Blockey turned up town. I never said a bad word about you prior to that. Based on your detective work the supposed scum pool narrowed down to me and Cookies. I know I am not scum therefore you must be. So yes everything I've said is conjecture. I don't have any great super powers like you do. I've worked with what I was given.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 20, 2009 15:06:19 GMT -5
ToDay's decision seems straight forward enough. Sinjin has the least amount of credibility, even though some of the credibility enjoyed by Hoopy and KidV is somewhat indirect or implied. My credibility about myself is first-hand.
It is toMorrow that I fear, and I don't just mean because I'm one of two people likely be lynched, unless I'm night killed.
I'm around and willing to put down a vote if necessary.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 20, 2009 15:56:27 GMT -5
Questions for Cookies and Sinjin:
1) Does it seem reasonable to you to assume that we've got 2 scum left?
2) If yes, do you believe Hoopy is lying, or mistaken?
3) If no, do you believe the other of the two of you is scum?
4) If you think Hoopy is scum, who do you think he's in cahoots with?
And Cookies, what's bugging you about Tomorrow, if not your own possible lynch?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 20, 2009 16:51:28 GMT -5
Questions for Cookies and Sinjin:
1) Does it seem reasonable to you to assume that we've got 2 scum left?
We may only have 1 left, but I consider 2 remaining scum more likely than only 1 or as many as 3.
2) If yes, do you believe Hoopy is lying, or mistaken?
I don't understand the question. Why does there being 2 scum (if that is indeed the case) mean either a lie or an error? Hoopy seems to be allowing for multiple possibilities, or at least that is how I'm reading him.
3) If no, do you believe the other of the two of you is scum?
If it weren't for the fact that the Godfather was outed rather easily (though a slip was involved, so it wasn't necessarily voluntary) and then Rugger basically hung himself (in a very voluntary fashion), I wouldn't think twice about lynching sinjin again. The scum's actions make me worry that they could've had a well-hidden mole in the confirmed pile for some time. Your prolonged absence is playing into that paranoia a bit too.
4) If you think Hoopy is scum, who do you think he's in cahoots with?
If Hoopy is scum, it could be either you or Total Lost or sinjin I suppose, but I've been thinking about the confirmed as confirmed for so long, I could easily convince myself to be paranoid of all of you again.
5) And Cookies, what's bugging you about Tomorrow, if not your own possible lynch?
I've already summarized it, but my fear is that both sinjin and I are town and that once y'all have killed us and figured it out, the well-camouflaged scum could blind-side the town for a win, especially if there are two of them in the "confirmed or somewhat confirmed" group.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 16:59:48 GMT -5
Questions for Cookies and Sinjin: 1) Does it seem reasonable to you to assume that we've got 2 scum left? 2) If yes, do you believe Hoopy is lying, or mistaken? 3) If no, do you believe the other of the two of you is scum? 4) If you think Hoopy is scum, who do you think he's in cahoots with? And Cookies, what's bugging you about Tomorrow, if not your own possible lynch? I think you know my answers already. 1) I'm guessing 4 scum total based mainly on what everyone is saying (I know nothing about game balancing and skip those posts because they make my head explode). However, three just seems to be too few, especially given that we had a day/night cycle with no scum kill and an additional town night kill due to the gastard Idle machinations. 2) I am torn on Hoopy. Yes I went after him today for the reasons I posted above. I still don't understand why he is so positive that my role is scummy. I never even heard of a scum scotsman before this. For Og's sake I bread-crumbed my role in my confirmation post (obscure yes, but comprehensible upon explanation.) I started this day thinking that either you and Cookies were in cahoots or Hoopy and Cookies or one of his confirmed were in cahoots. My focus fastened on Hoopy when he attacked me in what seemed to me to be a most single-minded fashion. It's like Cookies wasn't even in the equation for him anymore. He launched an all out assault on me. So I responded in fashion. And then escalation ensued. Maybe we are both town doing a town on town battle. I truly don't know. 3) Hi Opal! I think all of your questions are answered in the first two points above
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 20, 2009 17:21:46 GMT -5
Well, if there's two scum left, and you know that you aren't one of them, then either Hoopy is wrong, or lying, or I'm lying. Why aren't you agitating for the consideration of those possibilities?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 20, 2009 17:45:07 GMT -5
If Hoopy is wrong or lying, it opens up all sorts of possibilities other than just that you are lying.
Here's how I'm seeing the possibilities:
1 scum left, and it is sinjin: We lynch her toDay and win. If we don't lynch her toDay, a) I don't know who we'd string up instead today, but probably me...and when I come up town you lynch her toMorrow and we win toMorrow.
2 scum left and one of them is sinjin: We lynch her toDay, but don't win. We lynch me toMorrow (unless I'm night-killed) and then I don't know what the hell y'all are going to do. This is one of the scary options.
2 scum left and neither of them are sinjin. Basically this plays out same as the previous scenario except the winning would take another Day and you have two Days where I don't know how the hell y'all would hunt scum in the confirmed pile. This is the scariest option.
1 scum left and it isn't sinjin. Sinjin dies a townie, I die a townie, and then I don't know how the hell y'all would hunt the scum in who's left. Still pretty scary.
3 scum seems so implausible it isn't worth considering anymore.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 20, 2009 17:50:45 GMT -5
I still don't understand why he is so positive that my role is scummy. I'm not positive your role is scummy. You had the exact same role in Batman and you weren't scum there. However, anyone who can stop his own lynch without some other pro-town power to back it up has an anti-town aspect to the role. As has been said many times, by many people, anti-town does not mean pro-scum. We lynch you, you lose your one-shot saving. Which means we not only don't get info on your lynch, you are also now vulnerable to night kill. I may have gotten to investigating you the night after Total Lost (really, I didn't think that far ahead, with a game that changes as rapidly as Mafia does, any long-term specifics are typically hosed before the next cycle), but I saw you as the only potential anti-town power amongst a bunch of vanillas, one of whom I was certain was town. So I investigated that person first. Upon the next Day, you lost your power in the Castle, so I realized that if you were a Townie before that Day, lynching you would be smart, because we would get info on what you were and narrow the pool, when normally it would take us two lynches, and scum clearly weren't going to try to take you out and waste a night kill. How was I to know that your power was going to carry over regardless? So toDay, you come back to life. Now if you are town, you are a straight up vanilla, but one who had an anti-town power. That's why I voted you again. Yes, we have to spend two Days lynching you, because your power was anti-town. We wouldn't even be bothering with you had you been able to be confirmed in death. You didn't seem to realize you would come back toDay, so why did you expect me or anyone else to? Why are my actions so scummy to you when they have a perfectly valid pro-town motivation?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 20, 2009 17:56:24 GMT -5
NETA: And just to clarify the point, even though anti-town does not mean pro-scum, it is closer to pro-scum than a lack of any anti-town is.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 20, 2009 18:20:06 GMT -5
You completely missed my point. I wonder whether that was on purpouse.
Lemme try again. Between Hoopy and myself, everyone is accounted for except you and Sinjin. If you know you aren't scum, and you believe that there are 2 scum left, you MUST believe that Hoopy is wrong/lying, or that I'm lying. Right?
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 20, 2009 18:20:40 GMT -5
EBWOP - previous was for Cookies, of course.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 20, 2009 18:36:37 GMT -5
I'm not positive your role is scummy. <snip> I may have gotten to investigating you the night after Total Lost (really, I didn't think that far ahead, with a game that changes as rapidly as Mafia does, any long-term specifics are typically hosed before the next cycle), but I saw you as the only potential anti-town power amongst a bunch of vanillas, one of whom I was certain was town. So I investigated that person first. Upon the next Day, you lost your power in the Castle, so I realized that if you were a Townie before that Day, lynching you would be smart, because we would get info on what you were and narrow the pool, when normally it would take us two lynches, and scum clearly weren't going to try to take you out and waste a night kill. How was I to know that your power was going to carry over regardless? <snip> Why are my actions so scummy to you when they have a perfectly valid pro-town motivation? See Hoopy it's this double talk that makes me so suspicious of you. You say here that you are not sure I am scummy. But you previously stated twice, as quoted above, that you chose not to investigate me because you KNEW I was scummy. And I still can't get my mind around why you would investigate someone you were CERTAIN was town and under no pressure of getting lynched vs investigating someone who may or may not have been town who's claimed power (if town) would lead to two mislynches this late in the game. If I turned up town we would save not one but two mislynches. If I turned up scum almost game over. I just can't conceive that a player of your caliber would make that choice. As to the last I have stated again and again why your actions seemed scummy to me. See my reply to KidV above and my reply to you above that for the short hand version.
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