RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on May 26, 2009 13:39:41 GMT -5
I can't talk for others and I can't really help others - but I seem to remember RoOsh as a brilliant writer and would have loved to be able to pull a stunt like that as well. This will have to do for now. ... Que? Wha? Which Stunt are you referring to?
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on May 26, 2009 13:41:21 GMT -5
A mass claim will help town because it will help story and IS figure out who to target. I don't like the Mass Claim Idea- only because well... I'm the guy who created the Riddler- I like putting ideas in there that can SEVERELY hurt people who go for the mass claims into my games. But I can be persuaded to go along with this idea....
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 13:48:49 GMT -5
I can't talk for others and I can't really help others - but I seem to remember RoOsh as a brilliant writer and would have loved to be able to pull a stunt like that as well. This will have to do for now. ... Que? Wha? Which Stunt are you referring to? You have pulled stunt, you might even have pulled Stunts - and then you have pulled STUNTS. But you might be to humble to remember. If so - no need to take it further... I just thought you would know what I meant
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on May 26, 2009 13:50:01 GMT -5
I have no idea what you're talking about. :drinks milk:
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 13:50:50 GMT -5
If we're talking about a claim: I do not want to act too proud and in any way be humbled for doing so. I can't talk for others and I can't really help others - but I seem to remember RoOsh as a brilliant writer and would have loved to be able to pull a stunt like that as well. This will have to do for now. Interesting. So what you're saying, basically, is that you are the Chia Bingo Master? I said "I can't really help others" and that was the truth.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 13:51:30 GMT -5
I have no idea what you're talking about. :drinks milk: Good thing we have Story, then ;D
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on May 26, 2009 13:51:53 GMT -5
Oh. THAT stunt. Whoops. : bends over to tie Shu:
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Post by storyteller0910 on May 26, 2009 13:53:40 GMT -5
I like you people. Do I ever say that aloud?
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on May 26, 2009 13:55:59 GMT -5
Maybe instead of milk, I should have offered you frozen yogurt, Total Lost?
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 13:58:57 GMT -5
Maybe instead of milk, I should have offered you frozen yogurt, Total Lost? Well I'm not too proud to accept that - thanks
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 13:59:43 GMT -5
I like you people. Do I ever say that aloud? I say it all the time - the same difference
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Post by Pleonast on May 26, 2009 14:20:39 GMT -5
Oh and Pleo? Listing me as having No Vote Day 1 and 2 is kinda unfair, since I wasn't actually PLAYING yet. And while I may have been in the game Day 3, I came in very late and wasn't able to catch up in time. I can't comment on what my predecessor did or did not do in terms of voting. When you sub in, you own everything the previously player did (or didn't do). We can't give subs a pass simply because the new player didn't do the previous things. Based on his posted PM I don't see how he could know that. If AH didn't know groupie #3 and Pollux doesn't know groupie #3 then there are three options 1) Pollux is lying. But it's a stupid lie. 2) Groupie #3 is scum. And at this point that is functionally equivallent to the groupie not existing because scum would be fools to claim groupie #3 now. So no one is going to claim groupie 3. Though I suppose if IS comes back with an investigation that shows someone is groupie 3 this is something to consider. 3) There is no groupie #3. For where I am going with my current line of thinking, I think that all of the above yeild the same basic result. If the game was balanced for masons, then it was only balanced for 2 of them. 1a) There is a Groupie #3 and Pollux is lying about his alignment. Plausible. 1b) There is a Groupie #3 and Pollux us lying about who he knows is the third Groupie. Plausible, if Pollux is Town and doesn't want to reveal the third. So story is 100% a pro town vig. What is it with players trying to push confirmed status on others this game? storyteller could easily be a godfather-type role, who claimed to have killed Special Ed in case someone was watching him. It's useful that we have a Town result, but let's not jump to conclusions, especially when the claimed investigator is also unconfirmed. Two roles that can confirm each other = mason. That's not how many players use the term "Mason" and your usage that it does indicates an ulterior motive. Ro0sh was doing the same thing, but unfortunately I can only vote for one of you. The game is over we just won. Congradulations town. But this put you over the top. vote NAF1138There's no way we have the game won this early, when we've effectively no-lynched twice in a row and have only two potentially confirmed players (once Stickler is dead, then we can have some confidence in the investigations). Your over-confident praise feels like scum trying to encourage Town apathy while publicly griping about it.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 14:27:26 GMT -5
You're wrong Pleo. This game is a bit broken, but it's broken in a way a lot of games are broken.
CIAS's game on DoMeBo was broken in a similar fashion The Mister E game was broken in a similar fashion.
I am simply observing the pattern. If IS investigates in the unclaimed pool every Night and Story kills in the unclaimed pool every Night and Town lynches in the unclaimed pool every Day town will probably win. With near certainty. If town mass claims the odds of that win go up.
We are already down 1 scum yes? So there can not be more than 4 scum left alive. We have more than that number of claimed/investigated players living and we have a cop alive who can confirm them and a vig alive who can shrink the hiding places for scum. At this point it's all just math.
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Post by BillMc on May 26, 2009 14:53:14 GMT -5
NAF makes a fair point, if this pattern does continue, its just a maths problem and town will win irrespective of what we do. Admittedly if we start getting a dusk kill and 2 dead townies every morning, it could get rather close.
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on May 26, 2009 15:12:13 GMT -5
I am simply observing the pattern. If IS investigates in the unclaimed pool every Night and Story kills in the unclaimed pool every Night and Town lynches in the unclaimed pool every Day town will probably win. With near certainty. If town mass claims the odds of that win go up. WAIT, You fool! Just because Story is alive right now, you forget one thing.... We've got a fucking DAY KILLER out there. What's to prevent us from all just mass claiming, and then WHAM, the fucking Day killer takes out Story @ Dusk? Unless we've got a Day Doctor around here- that's a pretty big "oh shit" scenario there, NAF. We all admit who we are, and then Wham- our Vig is gone, and then we could lose our Cop as well at Night.... Consider yourself FOS'ed- as I KNEW there had to be a catch with this plan.... Games should not be so easily broken. Did you not think of that problem?
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 15:19:59 GMT -5
Ok, fair enough, there is a Day killer in the mix, but honestly I didn't think it would seriously effect the numbers. Maybe I am wrong. Let me (or you know, anyone who is actually interested) run the actual kill numbers and I will get back to you. I still think town is far enough in the lead that this is a game breaking scenario, but we might still be a Day or two away. In which case I am sorry for shooting my mouth off.
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Post by sinjin on May 26, 2009 15:42:51 GMT -5
NAF:
Did you miss these posts NAF?
AH D2.33:
AH: D1.64:
Skimming and being reckless about a mass claim?
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Post by sinjin on May 26, 2009 16:12:58 GMT -5
About Storytellers vigilante claim: Why did you try to kill Pleonast twice? You being against his lynch Day Two makes sense if you were going to try again, but did you have some indication you would succeed a second time? Unless storyteller had a real lead on scum trying to kill Pleo every night is the perfect thing for a Compulsory Vig. to do.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 19:59:17 GMT -5
NAF: Did you miss these posts NAF? AH D2.33: AH: D1.64: Skimming and being reckless about a mass claim? Mass claims are usually a better idea than people give them credit for being, and yes, I have been skimming. I haven't bothered trying to hide that all game and even asked people to correct me where I was wrong. How is this an accusation?
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 20:04:29 GMT -5
NETA:
Like I said, I am fairly sure it's all math at this point. The numbers I am using aren't some big mystery, if someone doesn't want to wait for me to crunch them they can run the numbers themselves. Run the balance of claims against JSP and assume that there are 3-5 scum at start because in a game this size any number larger or smaller would be game breaking one way or the other. Then you can make a decent guess as to the number of remaining unclaimed power roles. If that number + the claimed and investigated roles is greater than the number of probable scum it is a good idea to mass claim.
The only wrench in that is the kill speed. So then you need to simulate the predicted number of kills per cycle and see if you can kill off all the unclaimed before lynch or lose knowing that random chance will net you at least 1 scum every x number of kills. That number can be arrived at by deciding how many scum are currently alive.
It's dull math but its fairly simple.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 26, 2009 23:17:29 GMT -5
Sinjin has not been confirmed - only investigated as town by IS So was Story - so if you really think she is "confirmed" so is Story. ' Ah, I missed that story was investigated. Good. That's helpful. So story is 100% a pro town vig. Unfortunatly he is a forced kill vig, which is mostly anti town but...it's probably time for him to start killing every Night anyway. Based on what I know I think it's time to mass claim. Still catching up, but I agree. I also have a magic bag that makes me believe a mass claim could benefit us.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 26, 2009 23:19:36 GMT -5
So story is 100% a pro town vig. Really? You believe in 100% in a mafia-game? I would have gone with "most likely" or "presumed". *cough* Godfather*cough* Not saying he is, but it's a possibility.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 23:27:48 GMT -5
If he's a Godfather then he's dead soon anyway. We know that there can not be a third party killer based on the town win condition. So the extra kills have to either be coming from scum or from a Vig. How many extra kills would you let scum have if you were designing a game? My guess is that there is a vig and if it isn't Story, Story won't live through the Night. Nothing to worry about there.
Christ it's like none of you have played mafia before.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 26, 2009 23:35:03 GMT -5
You don't need to be condescending, Mr. "I'm 100% sure of something". That kind of thing is a horrible newbie mistake to make, the kind that can lose games. Sure, Story is quite likely Town at this point. But Buff was quite likely Town in the Gastard endgame too, and look what happened there. Christ, it's like you've never played Mafia before.
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Post by Pollux Oil on May 27, 2009 0:26:02 GMT -5
Honestly I'm a little shocked that storyteller claimed the way he did. First of all, with an apparent Daykiller on the loose, and as far as we know no way to protect from the Daykill, story could be as good as dead by Dusk. And him claiming just to give a little more information? I think it's a horrible, horrible play. The only way I can see it being okay is if the Daykill has to be put in the Night before, but even so story's got a maximum of one more Night alive.
The analysis that the Daykiller is going for strictly pro-town targets is false in my opinion. I had my suspicions of sachertorte and he was in no way confirmed pro-town before he was offed. Furthermore, ZLW had some weighty suspicion thrown his way considering how he acted. So I don't think assuming the Daykiller is going strictly after town is a good assumption to make.
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Post by sinjin on May 27, 2009 9:46:46 GMT -5
I'm still waiting for the dull math to show up. And maybe some not so dull math that includes the possibility of a soon to be dead vig. or cop.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2009 10:19:13 GMT -5
You don't need to be condescending, Mr. "I'm 100% sure of something". That kind of thing is a horrible newbie mistake to make, the kind that can lose games. Sure, Story is quite likely Town at this point. But Buff was quite likely Town in the Gastard endgame too, and look what happened there. Christ, it's like you've never played Mafia before. I wasn't trying to be condecending, I am just a bit shocked that I am getting this sort of flack over here when I know several of you have played in the other games that have displayed this pattern. But you bring up another good point Kid. Tabby in the Gastard game shouldn't have been able to get as far as she did. The reason she ended up winning was because the people who had the information that could have outted her never shared that information with the rest of the town. For whatever reason they felt that it was either unimportant or too important to share and town was never able to put 2 and 2 together so tabby won. (None of the above discounts the fact that tabby played very well that game, I am not trying to undermine that, but we built in so many give away mechanics into that role that I think we were all surprised that no one gave out the necessary information to capture tabby.) So that being said, we seem to have some fairly substantial mysteries going on right now, things that don't seem like they are working correctly, and if anyone has any information that might help us clear some of that up, now is probably the time to start helping. Use your judgment, but don't hang onto everything until the end.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2009 11:01:35 GMT -5
I'm still waiting for the dull math to show up. And maybe some not so dull math that includes the possibility of a soon to be dead vig. or cop. Ok, I was writing that post and I realized that the Day kill does change the math a bit, but only in a specific instance. If Story or IS is Daykilled before toNight then we are back at a disadvantage. We are one claimed/investigated player short of where we need to be to make this work with a Day killer. On the other hand, I can't make the Day killer make sense. If the scum have a bonus Day kill there are probably only two of them left out there, because that becomes insanely powerful really quickly. (A one shot bonus Day killer is a bonus 3.5 points to the scum. Every additional Day they can kill would be rougly the same bonus, so if they can kill indeffinatly they are probably work something like 15 or 16 JSP, which is unweildy) There either has to be some mechanism in the game that will stop the Day kill, or the Day kill isn't coming from the scum.
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Post by Pleonast on May 27, 2009 11:08:31 GMT -5
Ok, let's do numbers. Players who have claims: 4. sinjin - called Town by Stickler 8. Pollux - claimed Groupie 10. Storyteller - called Town by Stickler, claimed Vig 17. Pleonast - apparently unkillable 19. Inner Stickler - claimed investigator And players who are unknown: 1. NAF11382. Total Lost3. BillMc5. paulwhoisaghost7. Nanook9. Kat!11. KidVermicious16. MHaye18. Natlaw20. RooshI'll guess we have 4 scum left. With 15 players, that leaves 11 ( = 15 - 4 ) Townies, giving us 7 ( = 11 - 4 ) Townie deaths before we lose. If we have a simple cycle of one lynch per one scum kill, that gives 3.5 mislynches (= 7 / (1+1) ) until we're at lynch or lose. If all the scum are in the unknown pool, we have 6 ( = 10 - 4 ) Townies there. That's more than the number of mislynches, so we don't have a victory that way. And it's worse if there's any scum in the claimed pool. If we have a cycle of one lynch, one scum kill, and one investigation, the unknown pool will shrink by two each cycle. Assuming all the scum are in the unknown pool, we'd be left with only scum there after 3 cycles ( = (10-4) / 2 ). Since that's less than the number of mislynches, that'd be a Town win. However, if there was one scum in the claimed pool, we'd need 3.5 cycles ( = (10-3) / 2 ) to reduce the unknown pool to only scum. That puts us at exactly lynch or lose, if we do worst-case on lynches. We'd then have to get the last scum in the claimed pool perfectly. This is a risky scenario. If there's two scum in the claimed pool, it's a loser. If we have a cycle of one lynch, one scum kill, one Vig kill and one investigation, the unknown pool will shrink by three each cycle. Assuming all the scum are in the unknown pool, we'd be left with only scum there after 2 cycles ( = (10-4) / 3 ). That's less than the number of mislynches, so we'd be golden. Again, if there's a scum hiding in the claimed pool, the numbers change for the worse. It'll take us 2.3 cycles ( = (10-3) / 3) to reduce the unknowns to only scum. In this case, we'd probably still have one mislynch left to find the last scum in the claimed pool. So it still looks good, but depending on how the fractions go, we could still lose. If there's actually two scum in claimed pool, it's not good, but not a definite loss if we lynch well. These scenarios all assume no confounding factors like blocked kills or blocked investigations or key players dying early. Or third party kills. Since the worst case scenarios are grim for the Town, I think it's better that we play cautiously at this point. If we can get another Scum in this next cycle, we'll be in much better shape and we can reevaluate the situation. Based on this analysis, I don't think a mass claim will help us that much at this point. Unless the claims can produce truly confirmed roles (any help on that, KidV?). Otherwise, putting more players in the claimed pool simply increases the odds that there's scum there too. We know that there can not be a third party killer based on the town win condition. We do not know that! The victory condition simply means we do not need to eliminate any third-party killers in order for us to win. A third-party killer might be able to win with either side and may have their own goals in selecting victims. In fact, the whole Day kill mechanism points to a third-party killer. I'm surprised you're so quick to throw insults when you make mistakes yourself. Actually, I'm more than surprised, I'm suspicious. Are you the Day killer, NAF? Because it's certainly in the third-party killer's interest to make the other players (Town and Scum) to ignore the possibility of a third-party killer. I'm happy with my vote. Also what's "JSP"?
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Post by NAF1138 on May 27, 2009 11:31:22 GMT -5
Pleo, a third party killer that wins with either side is stupid and overpowered. I'm sorry but I refuse to believe that any game mod would create a non neutral survivor role. It's bad design.
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