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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on May 29, 2009 15:02:33 GMT -5
Unconfirmed? Who's confirmed? I think the closest we have right now are IS and Pollux.... but I'm not sold on either of them being "Confirmed" Really?? Why Pollux? We have Story and Sinjin investigated - so if you believe IS one of them must be town. As I have said - I'm not sure about Sinjin right now. But also after reading Day 1 once more I just don't see Pollux confirmed in any way. And the more I think about it... since the groupies didn't know alignment and could not state if for sure: Would it not be brilliant for scum to take out the Town-part of the duo and leave the scum as "semi-confirmed". Maybe even backed up by others? So I'll go with gut and Vote Pollux[/coor] Forgot about Sinjin and Story... yeah so IS, Pollux, Sinjin, and Story are who the semi confirmed are.... doesn't change the fact that non of them are actually confirmed.... Roosh.... you seem a lot less active than you were in previous days.... whats up buddy? People changing their posting styles puts me on edge.... Ulla... your theory on Pollux and the groupies not being the same alignment is interesting.... I'll have to think about that.... Right now no one is pinging me very hard.... well... other than Pleo that is..
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 29, 2009 15:06:13 GMT -5
I did start the wall-of-words on Sinjin - then changed my mind and did it on Pollux. Only done Day 1 and not sure how much further I'll get before Night. So this is what I got: A lot of "talking" about Pleo but didn't really say much. We're on Day 4 and the talk about Pleo on Day 1 and 2 are starting to drive me nuts. Seems like Pollux was more than okay with it going on. Anyway - here is Day 1: #49 - Vote RoOsh ("Because I feel like it") + failing to care about Pleo's claim www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=2#46041#108 - unvotes RoOsh (a joke vote) + votes Sachertorte for trying to table discussion on Pleo www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=4#46145#122 - points out the vote was for "table" the discussion + "I'm well aware you [=Sachertorte] don't want the discussion to end, you just want to move it to a separate Day." + believe it's better to discuss Pleo on Day 1 so we don't forget later in the game + explains the part of his posts he meant as jokes + his position on Pleo is: "Basically, if he is keeping information from us and he's town, he's got a reason for it. If he's scum and is being properly obtuse, he's got a reason for that too. But regardless, it's Pleonast being Pleonast playing as Pleonast, so his style to me is a null tell. Thus my statement of why I was trying to care but couldn't." www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=5#46175#124 - @ sachertorte: knows his joke wasn't read like a joke + @ sachertorte asking why he would agree with sachertorte and still vote: "Heh. I was wondering when somebody would bring this up. Okay, here's the difference between why I'm voting for you and what I've said. I gave my opinion that I think Pleonast is a null tell. But that's MY opinion. I still want to see everybody else's opinion on the matter." + voted for sachertorte for wanting to wait until toMorrow to deside + don't see why we should not discuss it toDay. www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=5#46191#174 - @ sachertorte: don't understand why the fact that Pleo want's to be lynched is believe + "Furthermore, you seem to be zeroing in on "to lynch Pleonast or not lynch Pleonast" and the only thing we'll gain from discussion of whether or not to lynch him is a list of people saying "Yes" or "No." Discussion begets discussion" + "I'm voting for you is because this is Day One, and you want to wait to discuss a possible major game point until tomorrow" + fluff at AHwww.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=6#46305#225 - is getting voted + claims Groupie #1 + "I assume we groupies are a variant on a masonic group, but I don't know for certain." + will later respond to the votes and questions www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=8#46382#231 - @ Sinjin: Is a town-aligned, but cannot confirm the alignment of the other groupies + first thought was circular confirming for the groupies www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=8#46388#233 - "Supposing there are only three groupies, still no idea. All I know is I can confirm who Groupie #2 is. I don't know how the rest of it works. One thing that's crossed my mind is Groupie #2 knows all the groupies, and all the groupies know Groupie #2." www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=8#46390#244 - if Pleo's claim is to be believe then he's Town --> "I don't think we should lynch him any time soon" + "just leave him the hell alone because he's a number in favor of town." + but we don't know Pleo's alignment so it all WiFoM + @ SisterCoyote: "The point I was trying to make was sachertorte seemed to think that all we'd get from discussing Pleonast today was a "yes or no" as to whether we should lynch him, and I was trying to make the point that we'd get much more info than just that." + speculates on Pleo and color + posts PM www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=threeclan&action=display&thread=911&page=9#46402
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 29, 2009 15:10:18 GMT -5
Ulla... your theory on Pollux and the groupies not being the same alignment is interesting.... I'll have to think about that.... Right now no one is pinging me very hard.... well... other than Pleo that is.. I'm okay with you calling me that - but I'm not sure if anyone else get that you talking to me?? Anyway - I'll not change the LT-name in here right now, so you might have to go back to that for a while
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Post by KidVermicious on May 29, 2009 18:15:10 GMT -5
I have to say I am not enamoured of this movement to lynch Kat. I consider it basically to be a confession that the voters have no idea who to vote for, and just want a soft target. There are times to consider lynching a lurker because of their lurking. One is when the game is down to the last few players, and you have strong pro-Town reads on all the active players. Then (paraphrasing the Holmesian principle) since you have eliminated all the possible ELE players bar one, that one must be the ELE player. Another is that the player is heading for Modkill and Modkill will not reveal the alignment of the player. Are you seriously claiming that Kat is the only possible ELE candidate? She's heading towards a Mod-generated warning, her activity level having been acceptable in the first three Days. Let FCoH handle it according to his stated policies, and get out and find another candidate. We still have over a day left. This is all well and good, but I don't see you building a case against anybody, let alone placing a vote. I don't know that I'm going to end the Day with my vote on Kat, but yeah, I don't have a hard read on anybody right now. If you do, would you be so kind as to bestow your wisdom on us all?
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on May 29, 2009 18:28:39 GMT -5
>< ok sorry... TL
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on May 29, 2009 18:57:53 GMT -5
Roosh.... you seem a lot less active than you were in previous days.... whats up buddy? People changing their posting styles puts me on edge.... Yeah, sorry about that. Real life is just making things tricky- I've been moving my stuff out of my apartment and preparing for a Wedding. I didn't think it'd be that much work, but I guess it has been cutting into my time- as usually I'm only now able to log on once a day usually at Night. =(
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Post by Pollux Oil on May 29, 2009 19:52:24 GMT -5
So I'll go with gut and Vote PolluxYour gut is wrong. My gut has indigestion. Unvote KatVote Merestil HayeFor wagging his finger at the people voting for Kat just because she's lurking, but not actually putting anything substantial forward himself. Plus, I got a little squirmy icky feeling inside when I saw KidV and Roosh jump on top of my vote for Kat. It felt wroooong.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 29, 2009 20:08:54 GMT -5
So, you wanted to vote for somebody, but don't want to see that person get lynched?
That's kinda odd.
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on May 29, 2009 20:28:57 GMT -5
So, you wanted to vote for somebody, but don't want to see that person get lynched? That's kinda odd. You lost me.... was this directed at Pollux's comment about you adding to his cries to lynch Kat!?
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on May 29, 2009 20:41:18 GMT -5
Oh please. You can ridiculously overelaborate board filter F0S me all you like, but lynching for information is a perfectly reasonable plan of action. Of course, that wasn't the only reason I said we should lynch him, regardless of what some people are stating. NAF is one of the very people NAF himself said we should lynch, the unconfirmed pool! I find it suspicious that he's pulling this Martyr act about being lynched when his own idea suggests that he should be. Furthermore, no one really stated that he should be lynched for his idea, yet that is the tact he has chosen to take. It is enough for me. Vote: Naf1138 [/coor] Ok... so... I have reread toDay several times... and I think the best I am gonna get is to go with my gut. My gut says something aint right about Pollux... but I think that might just be the icon of NPH dancing with elmo getting to me. My gut also tells me that there is scum in and outside of the group of people who have not claimed or been semi-confirmed by AH's death or investigation... One of those people is Nanook. Lynching for info is fine by me... but not when it starts to get tight.... and I dunno if you've looked around... but we ain't the crowd we once were. This coupled with the hypocrisy that we should lynch NAF because he proposed it, when really the lynching pool NAF suggested included Nanook as well.... gives me a for offputting vibe... VOTE NANOOK
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on May 29, 2009 20:42:32 GMT -5
goddang tags.... oh wait... we have vote tags here... Vote: Nanook
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Post by The Real FCOD on May 29, 2009 20:48:22 GMT -5
17 hours left in the day vote count:
NAF1138 (3) - Pleonast, Natlaw, Nanook Kat! (2) - KidVermicious, Roosh Nanook (2) - NAF1138, Paul Pollux (1) - Total Lost MHaye (1) - Pollux
--FCOD
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on May 29, 2009 21:06:38 GMT -5
What are you doin counting votes? I was gonna come back and talk to myself some more... now you've gone and interrupted me....
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Post by Inner Stickler on May 29, 2009 22:41:29 GMT -5
I agree with KidV. If you're gonna chide others for lazy voting, then you have to not be lazy either.
Vote: Mhaye
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on May 29, 2009 22:46:23 GMT -5
Said the guy with the me too vote. j/k
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Post by Pollux Oil on May 29, 2009 22:56:08 GMT -5
So, you wanted to vote for somebody, but don't want to see that person get lynched? That's kinda odd. It's more the fact that I've been voting Kat for three Days now and nobody really cared to talk about it or mention it. And then with around 24 hours to go both you and Roosh piggybacked my vote really quickly. I really should be voting for you or Roosh, actually, since it made me suspicious enough to drop my vote. But MHaye's finger wag also made me suspicious. EVERYTHING makes me suspicious, apparently.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 30, 2009 6:47:19 GMT -5
KidV and Pollux.
Just because I was unable to immediately post analysis on the current situation does not mean that I am lazy; there are plenty of reasons to call me that, but this is not one. I have other priorities in the weekdays.
I do apologise for not getting a post done yesterday evening, though. Back soon(ish).
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Post by Gir! on May 30, 2009 8:34:56 GMT -5
I apologize. I have no excuse for not posting; I've just been dripping with apathy all week for the most part. I will try and post something helpful in the next few hours.
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 30, 2009 9:14:22 GMT -5
The case against Paul The case, as set out by Bill and Sinjin, is that Paul exhibited a confidence that the ELE are Night killers that had no evidence to support the thesis; specifically, in N03.012 he stated that the doc “has done an excellent job of keeping the scum at bay” at a time when there had been no Nightkills. I think there are several possible explanations for this. - Paul is in the ELE, and knows that the ELE Nightkill.
- Paul is the Daykiller; the person responsible for the deaths of Sachertorte and Zach's deaths, and he is not ELE.
- Paul is the Doc, and is taunting the ELE.
- Paul is assuming that the game is conventionally organised, ignoring evidence that this may not be the case.
There may be others that I haven't thought of. The problem with the second hypothesis is that I don't consider the existence of a Daykiller likely, and the problem I have with the third is that the Doc needs to keep their head down, and Paul has played enough to know this. (This last could be argued as a variant of “the scum wouldn't do that.” Like any other comment of that nature, it depends on how entrenched the view that it's too risky is, and how much there is to lose if they're wrong). I do have a little problem with what he said in D04.159. I see this as basically scaremongering. He asserts that we are “getting tight” on numbers. We currently have 15 players in the game, no more than three or four of which are going to be ELE members. That means the gamestate is 12/3 or 11/4, and we are at worst three lynches from LyLo, more likely 4. That's not getting tight, not in my book at least. If we have a lot of deaths between now and Tomorrow morning, then we'll be getting close. The two pointers together are enough to make me think that Paul is possibly ELE, and may be worth a vote. That being said, I didn't like Nanook's suggestion either. If there was a gaping hole in NAFs logic, then I'd be willing to consider lynching NAF, but only if the plan can make some sort of sense looking at it from the ELE angle. So, before placing a vote, I want to review those two. We have just under 5 hours for me to do this. Back soon.
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Post by Gir! on May 30, 2009 9:15:21 GMT -5
I disagree. Based on the updated WC of "You win when all ELE members are dead.", it's highly unlikely if not impossible for there to be an SK. There's no mention of needing to get rid of anyone other than the ELE, and I can't see a game that allows Town to win with an SK still on the loose. Any third parties would have to be neutral at worst. (I could be wrong, but it just makes no sense.) (Well, unless there's suddenly a new WC update after this post.) Ok, you disagree. Got any other ideas? Okay, this one first... Right now, I'm leaning towards the concept that the "Day" kills were actually delayed Night kills (Like the poisoner role in SSB). Why? Because of the Tracker role. One that, from what zlw said, tracked Night actions only. Whether it was scum kills or third party kills, having a Daykiller with a Night Tracker cuts out a lot of his power. Now, maybe that was the intention, but when you add in that it also screws badly with any Doctor roles, it's less likely to be an actual Daykill than a delayed Night kill. If we have no Doctor, or both a Day Doctor and a Night Doctor, that would change things. I don't think we have both a Day Doc and a Night Doc, though. Unless scum have some really awesome powers.
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Post by Gir! on May 30, 2009 9:46:15 GMT -5
I notice everyone has decided that there's a full on DayKiller out there. I'm not exactly sure why this is. The only time anyone has died during the Day is when we tried to lynch Pleo. I know what you're going to say, that FCOD said they weren't related. But that isn't what he said. He said we didn't lynch them. That isn't the same thing. I could see it being a bomb ability attached to Pleo that triggers when we try and lynch him. Mind you, if we have yet another DK today, when there's really not much chance of us trying to lynch Pleo, that will be full on confirmation of a DKer. There are two problems with this theory: (1) If it's true, Pleonast is lying to us*. (2) If it's true, Pleonast is much too powerful (no matter what his alignment). He has admitted he was confused over the "lynch" vs "kill" wording in his PM, but he's still insistent that he had nothing to do with the Day kills.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 30, 2009 9:59:30 GMT -5
On Nanook.
Firstly, remembering that he subbed in for Dio, I don't think it is fair or reasonable to hold the lack of a vote on Day 1 or Day 2 against him. Recall that Dio told us in advance that he would be away on holiday for most of Day 1 and would not be playing until he got back, and that he returned to find he'd been burgled (and was Mod-excused lack of participation for that Day).
I'm not going to worry about Day 3 either, but that's just me.
Nanook's reaction to NAF's plan is what raised hackles with people; he basically suggested lynching NAF in order to determine NAF's motives in putting the plan forward, and then adopting the plan if NAF is Town aligned. While I think we can still afford a lynch for information at this stage, I don't think the return is worth the cost. If NAF is ELE, we can be virtually certain that it was devised with a hole that the ELE, with their greater knowledge, can exploit; however a Town result merely proves that NAF wasn't malicious. It doesn't prove his plan is viable, and if NAF is Town we can't blindly adopt his plan.
I also find it a bit of a concern that Nanook is willing to risk anyone claiming non-confirmable power roles, when the highest profile nonconfirmable power role is a Doc. I realise that he includes investigators in this, and the first resort would be for the investigator to check the Doc out; however, an open Doc (in the midgame) is a vulnerable Doc. If someone claims Doc they have to play WiFOM games with the ELE over who they will protect. That's not a long-term winning proposition because the ELE only have to be lucky once.
That's Nanook; now to review NAF. I expect to be some time over this one.
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Post by RoOsh on May 30, 2009 11:53:00 GMT -5
I am thinking more and more perhaps the Day Kills are related to voting for Pleonast. As others have pointed out, when we lynched SisterC, there was no DayKill. Yet the days we went after Pleonast, we suffered losses. That could certainly be a mechanism to hurt the Town- of having a Scum Role present who's job is simply to be lynchbait. And every time they are lynched, scum could get a free or extra kill- basically a method to punish the Town. Now the fact that he's really hard to kill makes it trickier to justify, but it might be that perhaps he doesn't count towards the scum numbers? Or it's a passive ability? That maybe he could be Town, but scum can still take advantage of the Town's error in lynching him? Not sure. But I'm really curious if the DKs are related to Pleo being involved in the equation.
The idea of a Delayed Night Kill though... just seems impractical for Scum- I could EASILY see it as an ability of a single role or power. But to give that to the SCUM- that's actually hindering them slightly (which would mean they would need to have a couple other more awesome powers to help them out). Mainly the thing that doesn't make sense is the lack of kill then for scum on Day 1- they were day blocked? Only the doctor really knows the extent of his or her protection so they'd probably be better apt to judging when scum kill, but I'm still of the mind DK usually means a single player ability rather than a Team one. Especially since we haven't seen 2 kills yet during the Day (a DK AND a lynch)
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Post by The Real FCOD on May 30, 2009 12:11:04 GMT -5
Vote count:
NAF1138 (3) - Pleonast, Natlaw, Nanook Kat! (2) - KidVermicious, Roosh Nanook (2) - NAF1138, Paul MHaye (2) - Pollux, Inner Stickler Pollux (1) - Total Lost
--FCOD
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Post by NAF1138 on May 30, 2009 13:02:54 GMT -5
Well, not that it will do me much good, but I am vanilla. I am moving guy #1 and I bread crumbed my role back on Day 1 with my first post which was a quote of Moving Guy #1s only line.
It sucks that I am getting lynched by three lousy votes, but I guess it could be worse. I hate how apathetic we have all become though. And I am not just talking about this game, Alien Taste had the same problem. No one gave a shit.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 30, 2009 13:14:14 GMT -5
And five people still haven't voted toDay.
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 30, 2009 13:18:48 GMT -5
I had some thoughts while out walking, and think I ought to get them down somewhere before the Night's end.
Assuming that Storyteller is who he says, then if there are three kills per Day/Night cycle (one lynch, one ELE Nightkill and one Vig kill) then we have two mislynches (including Today) to play with. This goes up to three if we started with only three members in the ELE. It doesn't matter whether the ELE has a Daykill or a Nightkill for this purpose.
That's less time than I realised; we're far closer to Endgame than I had thought, and that makes Nanook's suggestion far better for the ELE, and worse for Town, than I thought.
I think that that's enough to edge Nanook over Paul Today.
[Vote} Nanook [/b][/color].
On preview; NAF, we can't count Sinjin in the five as she's lost her vote Today.
As far as my review of NAF goes, I only got to about Day 2, so I put him on the backburner until Tomorrow.
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 30, 2009 13:21:11 GMT -5
And I bork the tags. Let's try a second time.
Vote: Nanook
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Post by The Real FCOD on May 30, 2009 13:23:58 GMT -5
Vote count:
NAF1138 (3*) - Pleonast, Natlaw, Nanook Nanook (3) - NAF1138, Paul, MHaye Kat! (2) - KidVermicious, Roosh MHaye (2) - Pollux, Inner Stickler Pollux (1) - Total Lost
* NAF reached 3 votes first.
--FCOD
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Post by RoOsh on May 30, 2009 13:27:36 GMT -5
Dammit, NAF I don't like that claim at all....
That implies you ALSO have a partner (#1... is there a #2 out there). So are you ALSO claiming to be similar to the Groupies in mechanism? Or are you just a Vanilla dude w/ no extra information?
Right now, I feel suspicious of both Nanook and NAF, but I don't want to try to pick one over the other- especially since if I vote Nanook, he gets NO chance of a Defense. And you left too NAF so I can't ask you any questions either....
Dammit! Why didn't you claim earlier (by 12 hours or something) NAF? I don't know what to do.... =(
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