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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 12, 2012 12:59:59 GMT -5
Unvote PeekerI've noticed that for the last 48 hours under the "logged in in 24 hours" thing he hasn't lit up at all. I think he's honestly fallen off the planet. Which is not good if he's Town. Though the messages have also kinda stopped too. So i gotta wonder. I doubt there's time to sub him and at this point, I wouldn't want to- it'd be so hard to get a read on them. I'd have nominated him for the Vig target tonight, but it seems we've got dueling Vigs at Dusk tonight. That said. I'm going through my notes, and I can't find Meek's acrostic. And I dislike the nameclaim and run away, and posting the acrostic late as well. It's just... not good Town play- it's dangling a giant carrot in front of the town, then saying you won't be around for the lynch, and then leaving? And how did that put any pressure on Hal? Vote Meeko right now.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 12, 2012 13:27:47 GMT -5
Ok based on my slow re-read of Day 1, I think as of that Day the following were not scum based on their arguments for a Pleo lynch both before and after he decided to take Ed with him:
1. peekercpa (claimed town messenger) 3. Nanook (claimed Harley Quinn, one-shot town recruiter) 7. Suburban Plankton (claimed Mr. Freeze, roleblocker/doctor now powerless) 8. Gadarene (claimed Jane Doe, two-shot protector) 9. BillMc (claimed Hush, vanilla)
others in my probably not scum category unless they were recruited by scums after the town-affirming events (and I hate including Mahaloth in here because of his crappy play)
12. Mahaloth (claimed Solomon Grunday, scotsman-ish, recruited by Nanook) 4. scathach (claimed Two Face, investigator of a coroner-ish type, investigated not scum by Lightfoot)
That that leaves these folks as possible scummies:
2. Pollux Oil (claimed Lady Shiva, vanilla) 6. SBrOwn (claimed Anarky, devicer) 10. texcat (claimed Ra's Al Ghul, vigilante) 11. Meeko 13. Hal Briston
First off Pollux Oil. On my reread I was really kind of surprised at how he kept pushing to save Pleo thruout the Day and ended up keeping his vote on Hal. A really safe kind of vote for scum especially if Hal is town.
SBrOwn was on the Pleo wagon before he decided to off Ed and didn't really didn't address it after the fact. She could have been a scummy who got stuck on the wagon without a plausible excuse to vote texcat late in the day.
I don't think that texcat is scum because of the concerted effort by scum to get her lynched Day one instead of Pleo. MHaye, Ed and pizzaguy were all on her wagon. Note, this does not mean that I particularly think she is town.
Meeko, I have no idea, I tend not to read his posts because it all comes across as noise to me. But his decision not to claim today would push him into my lynch position
Hal, Hal, Hal.... He was the deciding vote that got Pleo and Ed dead. Which in ordinary circumstances would give him lots'o towny cred. However it was clear by that point that if it was within his powers Pleo was eventually go take out Ed and a scummy Hal might just decide to cut the scum team loses and save himself.
Feel free to nitpick. I need to go read some more before I place a vote for one of my final four.
Sorry this is so late, but I really don't have enough time to do all the nothing I have to do everyday since I retired. Weird.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 12, 2012 13:34:06 GMT -5
Your unvote didn't count SBrown. It's not in red, just fyi.
At this point in time, I think scum would want to claim protective because it's what the town needs. I don't really like Hal's claim, mostly for the fact that it reads like a copy-paste of Suburban's claim. Enough in it to say "Hey I'm useful!" but with the added "well, there is a drawback" and it just doesn't read right to me. Added in all the other suspicious Hal stuff plus this claim...it strikes me as fishy.
I think I'd rather lynch Hal than Meeko right now, but I won't switch my vote just yet....why to follow.
People I don't think should be lynched toDay:
sinjin texcat
(Sinjin, I think you should target texcat toNight. Texcat, I think you should target sinjin toNight. I believe one of you is town and one of you isn't, so one of you will probably do what I say and the other won't, because exposing the other person as town looks really bad for you. That being said, if you kill each other and both turn up Town that would be hysterical...sad for Town, but hysterical nonetheless.)
Suburban Gadarene peeker SBrown Nanook mahaloth scathach
And myself, obviously, but I'm also vanilla so I wouldn't be a strategic loss to the town if the votes shift that way. However if I do get
That leaves: Meeko, Hal, Bill from my perspective.
I'm tending to believe Bill because along with myself, that'd make 4 vanilla town total and that strikes me as a decent number to have if we started with 19 town.
Problem is, that basically leaves just Meeko and Hal as my suspects. If both Meeko and Hal are scum like I suspect...I'd be spot on and I'm never spot on (I'm not guiri, obviously).
But since I do think both Meeko and Hal are scum, and Meeko has votes right now and Hal doesn't, I'll leave my vote on Meeko. However, and I'd like to point this out with underline: I'd rather see Hal lynched toDay than Meeko.
Now I'm going to do a little analysis on game state...I'll be back in a bit with that.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 12, 2012 14:04:32 GMT -5
Update: SBrOwn was an early pizzaguy voter too, that is going to nudge her over into my not-scum column for now.
What the heck I'm going with my gut
Vote Pollux Oil
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 12, 2012 14:05:49 GMT -5
Okay, so we know from Astral's investigation that there were 19 Town at the Dusk of Night One. We have eleven confirmed dead town. They are:
Vanilla Archangel Chronos (knew about Mad Hatter?)
Investigative Astral (investigated how many town there are? maybe can choose scum/PFK/etc. as well?) Silver Jan (name investigator) Lightfoot (scum/not-scum investigator) Rysto (unknown investigator...maybe town/not-town investigator?)
Masons Inner Stickler Total Ullz
Protective Cookies (could protect X people, but had to sacrifice herself to do it)
Killing Dirx/Sister Coyote (Compulsive Vig)
Special Gnarlycharlie (unknown special powers)
So now we have to include 8 more people to make this a balanced, even game for the town...with 12 non-town against them.
Now...what can we add to make this balanced. Well, I'll add a few I think are town, plus myself who I know is town.
Vanilla Archangel Chronos (knew about Mad Hatter?) Pollux Oil BillMc
Investigative Astral (investigated how many town there are? maybe can choose scum/PFK/etc. as well?) Silver Jan (name investigator) Lightfoot (scum/not-scum investigator) Rysto (unknown investigator...maybe town/not-town investigator?) scathach (investigator of dead investigators)
Masons Inner Stickler Total Ullz
Protective Cookies (could protect X people, but had to sacrifice herself to do it) Suburban (protects but also roleblocks)
Killing Dirx/Sister Coyote (Compulsive Vig)
Special Gnarlycharlie (unknown special powers) Nanook (one-shot recruitment) peeker (messenger?)
That's seventeen there. I've added two vanillas (myself and Bill), scathach (investigated not-scum, claims investigator), Suburban (protector + roleblocker), Nanook (one-shot recruiter), and peeker (messenger). That leaves two slots for:
sinjin SBrown Gadarene texcat Meeko Hal Briston
Now of those six...we've got sinjin/texcat facing off...what's more likely? A one-shot unstoppable kill to balance out the compulsory vig? Or a vig with no restrictions to balance out the compulsory vig?
We've also got Gadarene vs. Hal Briston. What's more likely to complement the sacrifice protect and the blocktect? A two-shot protect that can be roleblocked? Or an overall awesome protect that has a weakness and can be rendered useless?
Finally, we've got SBrown, claiming to be a pro-town devicer whose devices do nothing. And a Meeko, who refuses to claim anything. If we knew his power, we could add into his data pool: clearly he has something that can be blocked...what is that, though? Another investigative? Hardly likely. Another protective? If so, that would really make either his or Hal's claim seem entirely unlikely.
So here's what I think.
SBrown is third-party or PFK. Regardless of who we lynch toDay, I think we should lynch her tomorrow if she doesn't turn up dead in the morning. As much as I would like to play chicken with the scum, I think she'll be even closer to her win condition tomorrow and since she wants to play townie, chances are she's PFK and not third-party.
One of Gadarene and Hal is lying. If Meeko also claims protective, two of the three are lying.
One of sinjin and texcat is lying. I'd like to bet that texcat is a PFK Serial Killer and sinjin is telling the truth, but texcat could be telling the truth and that would probably make sinjin scum. But the beauty of having two killing entities and one of them probably lying is that we can wait and see what happens at Night. Surely one will kill the other...unfortunately we're so spread out on the vote right now that sinjin is tied for the lead with 2 votes. Please don't lynch her, guys, it'd be a mistake.
As back-ups, I'm unsure on Bill and peeker. Peeker I'm still worried about due to the weird messages which we can't explain and that seemed to have stopped along with peeker showing up. Bill...Bill is vanilla so it's easy to suspect him (and by that same idea, myself as well) but I feel like four vanillas sounds about right..especially since one vanilla had information, and we have several power roles that end up vanilla (Nanook, Gadarene, Suburban).
My final guess:
texcat - PFK SBrown - PFK (maybe third-party) Hal - scum Meeko - scum
Gadarene - town sinjin - town
To fill out the remaining six. But I could be wrong. If I'm wrong, I'd probably say Meeko is actually town and peeker or Bill is the other scum.
That being said, since I'm obviously more confident about Hal being scum than Meeko...I'll switch my vote to Hal if others agree with my hypothesis....OR I'll stick with Meeko because I really don't think sinjin should be lynched, and am also against Gadarene being lynched but not as strongly.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 12, 2012 14:09:25 GMT -5
What the heck I'm going with my gut Your gut's wrong. Please take a look at all the analysis I've been doing. I've got plenty of posts for you to analyze and I've been working my ass off to try and pull this through for town. I'm vanilla, so if I do get lynched there aren't any powers at a loss here, but please at this point we should have enough information to make educated analyses and votes and not gut votes.
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Post by Hal Briston on Apr 12, 2012 14:22:00 GMT -5
And I'd still like to hear from Hal: Especially in light of all the info I've posted about my device (and thus his as well)- why so quiet with your shiny toy? Will you try to help figure out how it works? Or leaving it alone until more detonations come out? Absolutely -- I'll just....well, I have no clue what the hell I'd do to try and affect this sucker. What I am curious about is if the next one that goes *pop* will have a pointer towards someone in the same way the last one pointed toward me. It might be wishful thinking, but since they devices are supposed to be beneficial, might they point at townies? So we have another Doc who's done (almost) nothing but self protect. Brilliant! Hal, how about a complete play-by-play of your Night actions, successful or otherwise? How about not? There isn't anything useful to be gleaned there (I've tried), and there's the very real possibility that scum could use that knowledge to remove my ability. And if it makes you feel any better (or at least more Brilliant!), in checking back I find that I only self-protected once....thought it was more, but apparently not. And how did that put any pressure on Hal? I've been trying to figure that one out myself. Anyway... Vote GadareneI figure there are two possibilities here -- either Gad is lying, in which case we nail non-town, or he's telling the truth in which case we lose a vanilla. I've seen worse deals on the table.
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Post by texcat on Apr 12, 2012 14:31:36 GMT -5
People I don't think should be lynched toDay: sinjin texcat (Sinjin, I think you should target texcat toNight. Texcat, I think you should target sinjin toNight. I believe one of you is town and one of you isn't, so one of you will probably do what I say and the other won't, because exposing the other person as town looks really bad for you. That being said, if you kill each other and both turn up Town that would be hysterical...sad for Town, but hysterical nonetheless.) From an obviously different perspective, I still think that forcing scum to kill PFKs, if any, is a better plan. I don't think anyone thinks I am scum, and I can tell you that I am town, but I don't suppose that's going to convince you. I plan on doing a re-read before I send in my kill, and will either target someone I think is scum or I may just not kill anyone tonight.
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Post by Gadarene on Apr 12, 2012 14:33:05 GMT -5
Hal, I actually think it's possible that you could be telling the truth. It makes sense for town to have more protective roles than usual if all of them are borked in some significant way, and I think your tone has been Townie.
Vote Meeko[/color] -- I think SBrOwn's post on him was spot on.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 12, 2012 14:48:27 GMT -5
Vote Count - UnofficialGadarene (3 votes) - scathach (114), Nanook (138), Hal Briston (186) Meeko (3 votes) - Pollux Oil (7), Suburban (156), Gadarene (188) sinjin (2 votes) - mahaloth (14), texcat (150) Peeker (1 vote) - SBrown (129) texcat (1 vote) - Meeko (171) Pollux Oil (1 vote) - sinjin (183) Not Voting: Bill, peeker I don't really know what to make of this. If Nanook is telling the truth, we've got 9 townies and 4 non-townies. If Nanook is lying, we've got 8 townies and 5 non-townies. My gut is flip-flopping every which way on Meeko now. I'm suspicious of him, but at the same time I tell myself scum wouldn't make such a big target out of themselves by refusing to claim for so long. My big issue right now is that Hal and texcat both immediately voted for people who counter-claimed-ish them, while sinjin and Gadarene didn't. I don't know which is scummier...I'd say scum/non-town would be more eager to get rid of a claim they assume is true, but town would also be quick to jump at a claim they think is a scum as well. Hm. From an obviously different perspective, I still think that forcing scum to kill PFKs, if any, is a better plan. I don't think anyone thinks I am scum, and I can tell you that I am town, but I don't suppose that's going to convince you. I plan on doing a re-read before I send in my kill, and will either target someone I think is scum or I may just not kill anyone tonight. I think we're entirely past the point of playing chicken with the scum. We're either at 9 town vs. 4 non-town or 8 town vs. 5 non-town if Nanook isn't who he says he is. A mislynch toDay, or even a correct lynch of scum toDay, makes it very close to endgame for both us and any PFKs. We've played chicken long enough. I still think we should try and lynch scum and have killing roles suss out the PFKs at Night. That being said, I do not think you're scum. I think you're either town or a PFK Serial Killer. If you are town, I think sinjin is scum because a vig, compulsive vig, and one-shot vig is too much, but I don't think she'd be a PFK. That's why I encouraged both of you to kill each other. I don't think the game is balanced properly to have three pro-town killing roles, even if one is a one-shot...one of you two is lying and I'd rather it get sorted out after dark than wasting a lynch on possibly the wrong person. ---- To everyone town: I think it'd be good for town to take a look at astral's information: we know scathach was investigated as not-scum. I'd guess Batman was the godfather type so I'd say the investigation is safe, but there is that worry. Regardless, working with the information that there were 19 town at the start of the game is a good starting point for analysis, especially now that we have all the claims out in the open. Please take that into consideration with your votes from this point forward. PFKs/third-parties/scum, I know you're not going to heed my words anyway, so I'd appreciate it if you didn't do that and that way stuck out like a bright light when all the other townspeople do. Thanks. ;D
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Post by Gadarene on Apr 12, 2012 14:52:16 GMT -5
I'd really prefer not to be lynched today.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 12, 2012 14:53:12 GMT -5
What the heck I'm going with my gut Your gut's wrong. Please take a look at all the analysis I've been doing. I've got plenty of posts for you to analyze and I've been working my ass off to try and pull this through for town. I'm vanilla, so if I do get lynched there aren't any powers at a loss here, but please at this point we should have enough information to make educated analyses and votes and not gut votes. Yeah, I know you've been the towniest of townies, but you haven't once gone out on a limb. Your vote stayed on Hal Day one. You were the last to vote on Drain Day two, you were the last vote on pizzaguy Day 3, Day 4 you started the Coyote wagon when Idle started to come under fire and more importantly votes for his antics, and on Day 5 well, that was Idle day.
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Post by texcat on Apr 12, 2012 14:59:27 GMT -5
Unvote: sinjin Vote: meeko Unwilling to claim. Odd voting record.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 12, 2012 15:01:14 GMT -5
Update: SBrOwn was an early pizzaguy voter too, that is going to nudge her over into my not-scum column for now. Technically, i was also the one who did the analysis against him as well prior to his claiming, I was suspicious of him the Day prior, but i ended up switching my vote after the claim, but came back to it the next Day. And thanks for the heads up: Unvote PEeker Vote Meeko[/b]
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Apr 12, 2012 15:03:13 GMT -5
I don't know if it really makes a difference, but you might try bolding that unvote as well
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Post by sinjin on Apr 12, 2012 15:06:50 GMT -5
And Pollux still wants textcat to kill me tonight even though he thinks I'm town and she is PFK. Does that make any sense?
Why is everyone so sure we can't have 3 different protective rolls? Yeah Gad says he's vanilla now, but that's no reason to kill him. I know it's late in the game and the day but sheesh. He was right to protect himself on Night 1 based on what peeks said. He was at the time a confirmed town and definitely a target for scum.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 12, 2012 15:09:37 GMT -5
SBrown is third-party or PFK. Regardless of who we lynch toDay, I think we should lynch her tomorrow if she doesn't turn up dead in the morning. As much as I would like to play chicken with the scum, I think she'll be even closer to her win condition tomorrow and since she wants to play townie, chances are she's PFK and not third-party. I don't understand the "closer to her win condition" portion- again, I already said, I think Scum would be more desiring to try to auto-lynch PFKs rather than Townier players, and also again- I've already stated I'm willing NOT to device anyone anymore if that'll help allay fears of a MadBomber type of win con. Unless you think my win condition is simply to be a survivor type- which is more 3rd party than PFK in my book (because the idea of someone stealing a win simply for existing is kinda meh- a serial killer PFK makes more sense- they can work towards their goals, and there is a reason then established that scum cannot win without an SK dead in their midsts). But for a player who can choose to do [and will not do] nothing every night? How does that sound like a plausible PFK role/win condition? I really dislike the "Playing chicken with Scum" worries- as that doesn't seem like a townie idea- the whole point is to FORCE the scum to do it, to back down is to give up and admit you were never really playing chicken with the scum. Also, I don't get your last line there: Because I'm acting townie, I'm more likely to be PFK than 3rd Party? That's just doubly smearing me with no defense. If I'm town, I'm just screwed for acting like myself? Just HOW are 3rd Party Roles supposed to act? Scummy? Your sentence doesn't make any sense and seems like you're just trying to make sure i'm smeared with mud no matter what I do or behave- anyone who says "well, SBrown has been acting ProTown" you'll try to bias- so what's left for them to think? That I'm either Scummy, PFK, or if I'm acting Townie to them, I must also be PFK? Not cool, Pollux. Not cool at all.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 12, 2012 15:11:27 GMT -5
Yeah, I know you've been the towniest of townies, but you haven't once gone out on a limb. Your vote stayed on Hal Day one. You were the last to vote on Drain Day two, you were the last vote on pizzaguy Day 3, Day 4 you started the Coyote wagon when Idle started to come under fire and more importantly votes for his antics, and on Day 5 well, that was Idle day. You're cherrypicking the information you need to make me look scummy. I made this post before the wagon even started on him and sort of got the ball rolling, since it inspired peeker to vote pizzaguy. I would have voted pizzaguy at that point, except I had a device on me that counted down as I voted so I wanted to be extra sure about my votes: something you didn't bring up when you focused on me being last on the Drain Bead and pizzaguy wagons. Except, oh hey, I wasn't the last to vote on the Drain Bead wagon. You were. And texcat also voted after me but before you. So that's complete misinformation. As for saying I haven't once gone out on a limb...that doesn't make any sense. I was the first to vote for Hal on Day One, first to vote for Sister Coyote (and kind of built the case on her that Day as well), first to vote for Meeko toDay (and built a case on him as well way back on Day Four). I was the first person to detonate a device as well, not knowing what it could do to me. And while you're trying to use that information against me, you better take a good hard look at yourself. You were the last vote on Drain Bead, you were the second-to-last vote on askthepizzaguy (right before me), and you disentangled yourself from Day Four by unvoting and didn't actually vote on anyone at the end of the Day. The only advantage you have over me is you were in the middle of the pack voting for Pleonast. You're using pieces of information you think will make me look bad, but are basically the same as what you did. If you want to justify your vote after the fact, come up with better accusations.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 12, 2012 15:16:30 GMT -5
NETA: Fos Pollux Oil, I've gotta think about the Texcat-Sinjin thing too. If we end up with two dead townies, that'd REALLY screw us up. And a Dead Townie, Dead PFK? Again... i don't feel like you're as Townie as I thought you were anymore. =\
And I disagree with your earlier mention- that Scum would be more likely to claim protective roles. I'd think Scum would want to claim Vanilla roles- because if they claim protective roles, they can be verified- just have Texcat target them and see if they can self-protect.
So scum would want to be more inclined to try to pass off as Vanilla Town, I'd think, rather than have to face the potential Vig's Crosshairs. Of course, after Sinjin claimed, and it looked like TexCat might be taken out, Scum may feel its safer to claim Protective roles.... =\ I don't really know about that part as we get closer to the end of the game.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 12, 2012 15:18:43 GMT -5
for goodness sake: Unvote Peeks
Vote Meeko
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 12, 2012 15:27:12 GMT -5
And Pollux still wants textcat to kill me tonight even though he thinks I'm town and she is PFK. Does that make any sense? As far as I'm concerned, only one of you is town. If you're telling the truth and texcat is lying and you kill each other, we'll get rid of the PFK and lose you, but you'd have used your power and would be vanilla. If she's telling the truth and you're lying and you kill each other, we'll lose the vigilante but we'll nail whatever you are, probably scum. Except if you're scum, you may not kill texcat since you only have the one kill (I doubt you have another extra kill after Idle) so we may not lose her if she's telling the truth. The worst-case scenario is you're both town and you both kill each other, but I believe that to be highly unlikely. Hell, maybe both of you are lying and neither of you are town...so again, feel free to kill each other! My point is, I think you should kill each other because the person who is town should get rid of the other person so we don't have to waste a possible mislynch of the wrong killer. The person who isn't town is hardly likely to listen to my advice anyway...I'm hoping what I'm saying ends up making sense to the pro-town killer. Also, I don't get your last line there: Because I'm acting townie, I'm more likely to be PFK than 3rd Party? That's just doubly smearing me with no defense. If I'm town, I'm just screwed for acting like myself? Just HOW are 3rd Party Roles supposed to act? Scummy? Your sentence doesn't make any sense and seems like you're just trying to make sure i'm smeared with mud no matter what I do or behave- anyone who says "well, SBrown has been acting ProTown" you'll try to bias- so what's left for them to think? That I'm either Scummy, PFK, or if I'm acting Townie to them, I must also be PFK? Not cool, Pollux. Not cool at all. You misunderstand me. I think if you were a third-party (able to win with either side but not disrupt their win conditions) you would have claimed as such. Saying something like you just had to detonate a certain amount of devices before the end of the game. The fact that you claimed town means one of two things: either you're town as you say, or you're lying and probably a PFK. I don't think a third-party who can't steal the win has as much motivation to lie and pretend to be town at this juncture. So you're either town or PFK in my mind..I don't think you're a harmless third-party or scum. And I disagree with your earlier mention- that Scum would be more likely to claim protective roles. I'd think Scum would want to claim Vanilla roles- because if they claim protective roles, they can be verified- just have Texcat target them and see if they can self-protect. Unless the scum do have a protective role. Three non-scum killing roles + Joker? Might help if scum have some sort of protect...maybe a two-shot protect they can use whenever? Hmmmm I need to rethink Gadarene now. Regardless, town isn't going to lynch an active protective role (as is evidence by nobody voting for Hal and the votes towards Gadarene) and nobody's going to instruct a killing role to actively target a doctor at Night, especially this late in the game. Protective role is the safest claim in the game right now.
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Post by Gadarene on Apr 12, 2012 15:42:38 GMT -5
Pollux, if I was a scum with a two-shot protect, then I definitely wouldn't have used it on myself the first two nights -- that would have been a STAGGERING waste, since I'd have information about places it could be better put to use (i.e., I'd know which of my fellow scum mates were most vulnerable and when). Obviously you only have my word that I used it on myself to begin with, but it basically devolves into (unintended) WIFOM then about how much you believe me. If you believe I'm telling the truth about my power, then it makes no sense for me to have targeted myself the first two nights unless I'm Town. (And if you don't believe I'm telling the truth about my power or my targets, obviously, then it's all out the window regardless and lynch all liars comes into play.)
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 12, 2012 15:44:59 GMT -5
I don't think a third-party who can't steal the win has as much motivation to lie and pretend to be town at this juncture. Ha, because that worked out REAL well for the other 3rd party claimers, lol.
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Post by Gadarene on Apr 12, 2012 15:45:12 GMT -5
I will also agree with sinjin's analysis of the Day One Pleo lynch and what it means for the likelihood that Bill, Nanook, Suburban, peeker, and I are all town.
It's possible that a scum in that spot would have no problem voting to kill Batman, but I don't think it's super-likely.
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Post by SBrOwn on Apr 12, 2012 15:47:36 GMT -5
Pollux, if I was a scum with a two-shot protect, then I definitely wouldn't have used it on myself the first two nights -- that would have been a STAGGERING waste, since I'd have information about places it could be better put to use ( Also, if you were scum with a two shot protect, then there's almost 0 chance to need it Night 1 when you were called out as "confirmed town" by peeks.Now if you were lying about the 2 shot protect, or your target, that's plausible. But not the idea of self-protecting IF SCUM on N1. But if town, it makes perfect sense to self-protect on N1. Why didn't you make a bigger deal btw Gad when Peeks claimed he didn't know your alignment or be more suspicious of him? Because at that point, he basically stripped away your townie cred.
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Post by BillMc on Apr 12, 2012 15:48:31 GMT -5
Re-reading, I'm torn between Meeko and Gadarene. I really don't like Meeko's play throughout this game. His name claim and run doesn't help resolve anything, nor his change of vote. Re-reading his posts there isn't a whole lot there - but his voting record is suspect - the only time he has been on the lynchee was Idle. I also really don't like Gadarene's claim. Re-reading the banter between him and Idle seems strange. We have Idle stating that Gadarene was scum (scum wouldn't do that!?) We have then Idle saying that Gadarene was the power stealer - which he denied. Now what struck me as strange as having looked up Jane Doe (my knowledge of Batman is purely from the movies) I came across this definition "Jane Doe is a cipher who obsessively learns her victims' personality and mannerisms, then kills them and assumes their identity" In mafia terms - that is essentially a power stealer type role --- Idle just randomly happened to hit on something or did he leak PIS? Going further back, his "I've been roleblocked" claim is also strange - he claims to have self protected because he thought he was a target N1/N2, and then announces he has a power by saying he got blocked? Very strange - given he had used his supposed 2 blocks. Gadarene also missed Peeker's "correction" of Peeker's claim I thought peeker said it didn't have to be to a fellow Townie. I must have missed him saying that. Doesn't change my alignment, though. He was active day 1, then almost non-existent till his banter with Idle, silent again, and participating today because he's a lynch candidate - that's very lurky. Vote: Gadarene
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Post by Pollux Oil on Apr 12, 2012 15:56:01 GMT -5
Pollux, if I was a scum with a two-shot protect, then I definitely wouldn't have used it on myself the first two nights -- that would have been a STAGGERING waste, since I'd have information about places it could be better put to use (i.e., I'd know which of my fellow scum mates were most vulnerable and when). Obviously you only have my word that I used it on myself to begin with, but it basically devolves into (unintended) WIFOM then about how much you believe me. If you believe I'm telling the truth about my power, then it makes no sense for me to have targeted myself the first two nights unless I'm Town. (And if you don't believe I'm telling the truth about my power or my targets, obviously, then it's all out the window regardless and lynch all liars comes into play.) If I were to suspect you, I'd say you were not lying about your powers but lying about how you used your protects/when you used them. I still think Hal is way more suspicious than you with his claim, though. Ha, because that worked out REAL well for the other 3rd party claimers, lol. Different in your case. Your claim as town still makes you as suspect as a PFK since you came out at the devicer. I guess it doesn't matter either way in the end since you'll be debated as town vs. PFK or third-party vs. PFK in the end. I, myself, probably would have been less inclined to believe you were PFK if you came straight out as third-party, but I can't speak for everyone else. I will also agree with sinjin's analysis of the Day One Pleo lynch and what it means for the likelihood that Bill, Nanook, Suburban, peeker, and I are all town. It's possible that a scum in that spot would have no problem voting to kill Batman, but I don't think it's super-likely. Somebody that voted for Pleo is scum. 8-9 people left are town. The only non-Pleo voters left are mahaloth, myself, Meeko (who we're set to lynch), and scathach (who was investigated not-scum). Mahaloth and scathach are pretty much cleared, so there's at least two non-town on the Pleo wagon, I know there's three since I know I'm town but I can see where that might get me killed/lynched. You'd be wrong, but I can see that being used against me.
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Post by Gadarene on Apr 12, 2012 15:56:51 GMT -5
Re-reading, I'm torn between Meeko and Gadarene. I really don't like Meeko's play throughout this game. His name claim and run doesn't help resolve anything, nor his change of vote. Re-reading his posts there isn't a whole lot there - but his voting record is suspect - the only time he has been on the lynchee was Idle. I also really don't like Gadarene's claim. Re-reading the banter between him and Idle seems strange. We have Idle stating that Gadarene was scum (scum wouldn't do that!?) We have then Idle saying that Gadarene was the power stealer - which he denied. Now what struck me as strange as having looked up Jane Doe (my knowledge of Batman is purely from the movies) I came across this definition "Jane Doe is a cipher who obsessively learns her victims' personality and mannerisms, then kills them and assumes their identity" In mafia terms - that is essentially a power stealer type role --- Idle just randomly happened to hit on something or did he leak PIS? Going further back, his "I've been roleblocked" claim is also strange - he claims to have self protected because he thought he was a target N1/N2, and then announces he has a power by saying he got blocked? Very strange - given he had used his supposed 2 blocks. Gadarene also missed Peeker's "correction" of Peeker's claim I must have missed him saying that. Doesn't change my alignment, though. He was active day 1, then almost non-existent till his banter with Idle, silent again, and participating today because he's a lynch candidate - that's very lurky. Vote: Gadarene [/color][/quote] Bill, I announced I had been blocked because at that point I was effectively vanilla and NO LONGER had a power. I was deliberately and specifically hoping to draw a scum night kill.
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Post by Gadarene on Apr 12, 2012 15:58:52 GMT -5
Pollux, if I was a scum with a two-shot protect, then I definitely wouldn't have used it on myself the first two nights -- that would have been a STAGGERING waste, since I'd have information about places it could be better put to use ( Also, if you were scum with a two shot protect, then there's almost 0 chance to need it Night 1 when you were called out as "confirmed town" by peeks.Now if you were lying about the 2 shot protect, or your target, that's plausible. But not the idea of self-protecting IF SCUM on N1. But if town, it makes perfect sense to self-protect on N1. Why didn't you make a bigger deal btw Gad when Peeks claimed he didn't know your alignment or be more suspicious of him? Because at that point, he basically stripped away your townie cred. I wasn't around (busy with other games, with work, with other stuff) when peeker clarified his claim, and I totally missed it. Regardless, it didn't really register for me -- why would I have made a big deal about it? I know I'm town, even if peeker was no longer convinced.
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Post by Gadarene on Apr 12, 2012 16:02:24 GMT -5
Going further back, his "I've been roleblocked" claim is also strange - he claims to have self protected because he thought he was a target N1/N2, and then announces he has a power by saying he got blocked? Very strange - given he had used his supposed 2 blocks. Seriously, I don't see how this is strange at all. Are you really saying that it would have been better for me to out the fact that I had been roleblocked if I still had powers? It seems self-evident that it would be worse to speak up in that case. As it was, I thought I could lead the scum to a useless kill. It sounds like you're trying to justify a vote of me. FOS BillMc and his "vanilla" self.
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