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Post by Renata on Apr 20, 2011 15:47:12 GMT -5
OK -- I'm not sure I want to show all my math since I don't want to inadvertently give the scum any way to game the system. But suffice to say that even with the risk of a kidnapping of Ed that we can't reverse, lynching GS today is still a slightly better option, I think. The main criterion I am going with is whether or not we have enough time and firepower to eliminate all of the unconfirmed players* and still have one lynch left for "but you're all supposed to be confirmed!" emergencies. Someone should check my math (without posting their results), but I don't think that can happen if Ed is lynched today (assuming optimal scum play). It *could* happen if Ed was kidnapped, *if* the kidnapping would preclude a night kill that same night, which I think is a fair assumption. Specifically, I got to a 5-player end game including Ed and four "confirmed" players (one of whom would be scum). I think that's better, as nervous as I am about it.
vote: Greedy Smurf
And I do hope it ends today, cheesy or not. I'm leaving the tags off because there's still a couple of things I want to have happen prior to the hammer. Specifically I want Guiri to decide whether or not he's going to specify his target and/or room and do so (or explicitly not do so); and Idle and SisC to acknowledge that. I won't necessarily be around tomorrow (I'll leave it as an exercise for any non-GS scum what my and their proper play might be), so forgive me my control-freak tendencies while I can still exert them.
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 16:08:15 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Apr 20, 2011 16:15:15 GMT -5
What do you mean by "if the kidnapping would preclude a Night kill"? If there's one scum left, s/he would have to choose to either kill or kidnap but could not do both?
If we lynch Greedy and it's not game over, I will use 4 snacks to annoy Lightfoot in one of the 3 rooms Sister cannot enter. If the claim is true, she's be as vulnerable as anyone else. If the claim is false, well, she's a lying scum.
@ Scuzzlebutt, do you remember what your first post on Day 1 said before you edited it?
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Post by Renata on Apr 20, 2011 16:18:13 GMT -5
Yes, that's what I meant.
Why would LightFoot be as vulnerable as anyone else, is there a caveat to her claim other than the one related to me?
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 16:30:58 GMT -5
I am not sure what you mean there guiri ? If my claim is true you will not annoy me, just everyone else in the room
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Post by guiri on Apr 20, 2011 16:31:55 GMT -5
I was using her words, if she's attacked, she'll become vulnerable the next Day, but no more vulnerable than anyone else. Investigating me would do me no harm, but if I am attacked I become vulnerable the next round.
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 16:32:42 GMT -5
NETA which is fine . Will someone be investigating Sister ?
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Post by Renata on Apr 20, 2011 16:33:31 GMT -5
LightFoot's claim:
Supposedly the name deleted is me. I see no other caveats.
So if Guiri vigs her and the scum kill me, both of us will die. (OK result.)
If Guiri vigs her and the scum don't kill me, LightFoot survives as long as she is a scotsman. *Not* an OK result, in my book; I'm counting on reducing the unconfirmed pool as quickly as possible and vigging someone who doesn't die doesn't accomplish that*. Nor does scum leaving me alone necessarily do the town any favors -- depends who they do kill.
If Guiri vigs LF and she's a scum scotsman, she survives (and can blame it on me still being alive whether that's the truth or not).
If Guiri vigs LF and she's scum something else, well great, but that could as easily be accomplished with a lynch after I'm dead. I'm the doc -- WIFOM games or no WIFOM games there are limits to how long I can be left alive.
In short I see no advantage that outweighs the negatives of my second scenario.
* There's no indication in her PM that her alignment would be revealed on first attack.
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 16:34:07 GMT -5
Without the "next Day" bit it was confusing to both of us.
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 16:40:49 GMT -5
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Post by Renata on Apr 20, 2011 16:52:27 GMT -5
One more run through the players:
Confirmed by Idle: Septimus, Guiri Confirmed by role: Ed, Idle Confirmed by mason-hood: Bob, charlie.
None of these are bulletproof in all situations, but I think it would be silly to do anything other than force the scum to make choices in this group, not the rest of us.
Me -- doc. I am unlikely to live very long unless Idle is scum, since I pretty much have to protect the longer-surviving of Idle and Guiri. Even a scum Lightfoot would probably have to kill me.
Scuzzlebutt -- makes snacks. Essentially proven. SisC -- limited watcher. Proven to have been doing something in Library on night two.
LightFoot -- scotsman, no proof, claims killable once I am dead (or simultaneously with my death). Mental Guy -- searcher, no proof. IIRC his PM came after Ed and SP; I don't remember what information if any he provided first and had confirmed by the other two. Suburban Plankton -- rescuer, no proof. Some wording in his PM did match Ed's; can't remember what that wording was.
If the kidnapper is the last scum role, it has to be one of the last three (from my perspective), since everyone else has demonstrably been doing something else at least some of the time. If kidnapping is a team power, it could be anybody.
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Post by Renata on Apr 20, 2011 16:55:40 GMT -5
I kind of do think you're town, LF, it's just sort of irrelevant at this point. The only thing I don't want to happen is for Guiri to waste a vig or the town to waste a lynch on you (before I am dead). I don't think the odds of you being scum and lying about being a scotsman are high enough for that. It's up to him, though.
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Post by septimus on Apr 20, 2011 17:02:38 GMT -5
When I was catching up this morning, I started thinking it might be a good idea to lynch Ed to prevent a kidnapping. I see the idea is getting traction. @ Septimus: I'm a little twigged by your statement "If you become completely unkillable, doesn't that guarantee your team victory?" (Underlining mine). Why "your team" rather than "our team" or "our victory"? First: It slipped my mind about the vote control; I've been making silly (stupid, really) remarks all game. (I think Idle summed it up best -- "for no reason" or some such -- and eventually admitted he thought septimus innocent only because of an Investigation.) And yes, I agree that preventing the Kidnap may be our safest move, though we're still AFAIK aware of no disadvantage to the Kidnap beyond the vote control. BTW, my earlier question about the mechanics remains: will the Moderator announce the controlled vote at Dusk exactly, or what? But third: Define "twigged." While I think it likely that Greedy is the last Scum, I still feel we should play with care, in case one of our claimants is actually Scum. Suppose greedy and Ed both flip Town. Who's highest on the suspect list then?
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 17:02:52 GMT -5
I kind of do think you're town, LF, it's just sort of irrelevant at this point. The only thing I don't want to happen is for Guiri to waste a vig or the town to waste a lynch on you (before I am dead). I don't think the odds of you being scum and lying about being a scotsman are high enough for that. It's up to him, though. Understood. I'm a non essential TOWN unless it becomes a numbers game. Just wanted to encourage the powers that be not to 'waste' a night action that would garner no results. If it came down to you or me I would vote myself. You are the only player I can be 100% sure of.
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Apr 20, 2011 17:03:05 GMT -5
What do you mean by "if the kidnapping would preclude a Night kill"? If there's one scum left, s/he would have to choose to either kill or kidnap but could not do both? If we lynch Greedy and it's not game over, I will use 4 snacks to annoy Lightfoot in one of the 3 rooms Sister cannot enter. If the claim is true, she's be as vulnerable as anyone else. If the claim is false, well, she's a lying scum. @ Scuzzlebutt, do you remember what your first post on Day 1 said before you edited it? Yes, I remember. I said "Hi, Little teapot, I am Lily McGee. I make the best snacks in town." I have never played a game with roles. After I posted it, I did not know if I should deleted it due to the fact that I had no idea what the snacks did or keep it...
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Post by BobArrgh on Apr 20, 2011 17:08:08 GMT -5
"Twigged" meant that the use of "your team" just struck me as very odd, coming from a Town player. Yes, there is a little FOS there, but not enough to make me change my vote to you.
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Post by special on Apr 20, 2011 17:40:18 GMT -5
BTW, my earlier question about the mechanics remains: will the Moderator announce the controlled vote at Dusk exactly, or what? If you read the question I asked Julie and her answer, you'll find the answer to this question. My vote is automatic. I don't have to cast it. My kidnapping will be announced as well.
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Post by guiri on Apr 20, 2011 17:46:34 GMT -5
I kind of do think you're town, LF, it's just sort of irrelevant at this point. The only thing I don't want to happen is for Guiri to waste a vig or the town to waste a lynch on you (before I am dead). I don't think the odds of you being scum and lying about being a scotsman are high enough for that. It's up to him, though. I see your point. I'm somewhat stuck for candidates to annoy so I was looking to cause the least harm. Scuzzlebutt is probably the safest target after Lightfoot. As long as Ed is alive and kidnappable, I'd rather have Suburban and Mental investigated than annoyed.
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Post by Renata on Apr 20, 2011 17:47:50 GMT -5
Yup.
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Apr 20, 2011 19:10:38 GMT -5
So have we come to a conclusion on what our voting should be? I am going to bed in about an hour and I have not voted. I am ok with voting for either Greedysmurf or Ed[b/]. I need to know from those with key power roles, if you do want it to end tomorrow.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Apr 20, 2011 19:58:31 GMT -5
I am content with guiri's action, wherever he chooses to do it.
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 21:08:49 GMT -5
I am content with guiri's action, wherever he chooses to do it. I don't want to appear daft but that is so ambiguious I miss what you mean. If true to claim it can only be done at Night and which target are you referring to?
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 21:10:01 GMT -5
ARG you said WHERE not WHEN so the second sentence is moot
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Post by Sister Coyote on Apr 20, 2011 21:45:23 GMT -5
Renata said: Specifically I want Guiri to decide whether or not he's going to specify his target and/or room and do so (or explicitly not do so); and Idle and SisC to acknowledge that. And I said and you said: I am content with guiri's action, wherever he chooses to do it. [/size][/quote] I don't want to appear daft but that is so ambiguious I miss what you mean.[/quote] So, I was responding to Renata's comment that I see what guiri intends and that I have no problem with his choice of action. If he picks a room in which I cannot watch, then there's no reason for me to be concerned about his choice of location to annoy.
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Post by MentalGuy on Apr 20, 2011 21:50:23 GMT -5
OK -- I'm not sure I want to show all my math since I don't want to inadvertently give the scum any way to game the system. But suffice to say that even with the risk of a kidnapping of Ed that we can't reverse, lynching GS today is still a slightly better option, I think. The main criterion I am going with is whether or not we have enough time and firepower to eliminate all of the unconfirmed players* and still have one lynch left for "but you're all supposed to be confirmed!" emergencies. Someone should check my math (without posting their results), but I don't think that can happen if Ed is lynched today (assuming optimal scum play). It *could* happen if Ed was kidnapped, *if* the kidnapping would preclude a night kill that same night, which I think is a fair assumption. Specifically, I got to a 5-player end game including Ed and four "confirmed" players (one of whom would be scum). I think that's better, as nervous as I am about it. vote: Greedy Smurf And I do hope it ends today, cheesy or not. I'm leaving the tags off because there's still a couple of things I want to have happen prior to the hammer. Specifically I want Guiri to decide whether or not he's going to specify his target and/or room and do so (or explicitly not do so); and Idle and SisC to acknowledge that. I won't necessarily be around tomorrow (I'll leave it as an exercise for any non-GS scum what my and their proper play might be), so forgive me my control-freak tendencies while I can still exert them. I don't think it is a safe assumption that kidnapping precludes a Night Kill of Ed. I assume lynching him was disallowed so that the scum would not be deprived of using his vote, but if they chose to get rid of him, then I think that would be allowed. I don't mind a Greedy lynch today, but If he is, I think Ed should be vigged tonight. I think the only way that Suburban or I will be confirmed is by our deaths, and with Ed gone, then lynching or vigging us is not a problem. I think Lightfoot should be investigated because the only other way she will be confirmed is by her death, and if she really is a scotsman, we will have to use 2 kills to do it.
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 21:54:07 GMT -5
@ Sister Coyote I believe I see why you would be. (since you will not be put in any danger at all)
Not going to win any pop votes here, but I feel that SisC should be investigated at some point.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Apr 20, 2011 22:23:11 GMT -5
If Idle chooses to investigate me, he may certainly choose to do so.
However, he is well within his rights to not say anything about who he is planning to investigate or where or when. Why make Scum's life easier?
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Post by Sister Coyote on Apr 20, 2011 22:23:46 GMT -5
And based on what happened Night Two, it is debatable whether I would be at risk from guiri in any event.
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Post by LightFoot on Apr 20, 2011 22:26:03 GMT -5
@ Mental Guy I agree and have said as much (regarding myself)
It seems I screwed up withholding information that I thought should have been withheld (my first time not being vanilla) my mistake it seems - if you ever believe it - helps the confirmed base. Do what you must just don't waste resources. I smell a twist coming.
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Post by guiri on Apr 21, 2011 4:50:25 GMT -5
I'm on vacation until Monday and may not be around much.
Vote Greedy Smurf
I think there's a good chance he's the last scum beyond the lack of claim and being active toDay without participating: - his general level of participation - his only post D3 was "my dog ate my homework - his comments on Story D2 - Pinkies botched claim could be explained by 2 almost-absent fellow scum (Joanie and Greedy) - the two female leads are Town but have drawbacks, it's reasonable to deduce the two male leads are scum and it's likely Greedy is Fred
We have a pretty good chance of winning toDay. If not, toNight I have a decent chance of annoying scum either directly or indirectly, Idle could confirm Town or investigate scum, Sister may watch a scum in action and Renata may prevent the scum kill.
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