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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 23, 2012 16:51:00 GMT -5
Rich, I am getting the tiniest little ping, more like a pi-, that you are bringing that NK up as an example, and forgetting that later in that same game, Ginger was lynched for a very similar slip and she was Town. Speaking of Ginger - we have not heard from her yet. I have mentioned my undependable memory this game. www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=poll&thread=2040&page=4#97682My experience is that when I remember something, my memory tends to be quite accurate. The problem is that there is much I have no memory of whatsoever (my children frequently make comments/jokes/ridicules on the subject), and so I am in the habit of deprecating my memory, both for the sake of humor as well as to disclaim. I have no memory of Ginger's slip and subsequent events. I do not dispute they occurred. I do believe that I have said in regard to KidV's "slip" that it could be meaningless and is only one data point, and Ginger's experience is an example of why.
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Post by Mahaloth on Sept 23, 2012 17:30:06 GMT -5
unvote crys
vote Kidv
I'm hoping he does have votes from Night 0 on him.
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Post by guiri on Sept 23, 2012 17:30:45 GMT -5
Yes, it is the choice of words. I believe the same slip cost a Scum her life in Marathon. "Killing" instead of "Lynching" was the tell there. (I remember thinking when it was pointed out "That's ridiculous .") You've added the additional slip of "People" instead of "Scum". I'm the one that died early because I used the word 'kill' I don't think anything else I'd done that early in game was Scummy but it was attacked like a dog bone. ( the comment was supposed to be tongue in cheek even) This is funny. You know who pointed out the "slip"? Total Ulla, a fellow scum, on N1. You know who was the next player to bring it up? Rich, a fellow scum, on D2. I think you guys were convinced that it was a major slip and the cause of Lightfoot's death but no townies seemed to even notice. I killed you 'cause I thought you were a mason, oops. mahaloth (13 votes) - scathach, Pleonast, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Suburban Plankton, sinjin, Silver Jan, KidVermicious, richbeckman, storyteller0910, Colby11, guiri, BillMc, wombat99 Does that mean KidV is still the lynch leader?
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Post by sinjin on Sept 23, 2012 17:47:50 GMT -5
We were discussing the possibility of my lying about having 12 hidden votes in order to make a sympathy play to get Mahaloth lynched. I explained that I think the odds of another player out there having won the bid and not countering my claim yet are probably fairly small. Are you sure you disagree with that assessment? Yes I did misread the discussion. That happens when I read Meeko's posts a lot.
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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 23, 2012 18:00:48 GMT -5
Yes, it is the choice of words. I believe the same slip cost a Scum her life in Marathon. "Killing" instead of "Lynching" was the tell there. (I remember thinking when it was pointed out "That's ridiculous .") You've added the additional slip of "People" instead of "Scum". This is funny. You know who pointed out the "slip"? Total Ulla, a fellow scum, on N1. You know who was the next player to bring it up? Rich, a fellow scum, on D2. I think you guys were convinced that it was a major slip and the cause of Lightfoot's death but no townies seemed to even notice. I killed you 'cause I thought you were a mason, oops. Ha! That's right. We had assumed she was killed by a Town Vig. Ahhhhh....memory. mahaloth (13 votes) - scathach, Pleonast, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Suburban Plankton, sinjin, Silver Jan, KidVermicious, richbeckman, storyteller0910, Colby11, guiri, BillMc, wombat99 Does that mean KidV is still the lynch leader? I think we do not get an answer for that.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Sept 23, 2012 19:28:18 GMT -5
Yeah I don't think Pollux is lying. He clearly says:
"With these votes" Meaning the votes that we placed. If day were to end right now based on OUR votes XYZ will be lynched.
If he said "With all of the votes (aka hidden and public) XYZ will be lynched"
I think it's a grey line that he's stepping right up to the edge of without crossing.
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on Sept 23, 2012 19:30:31 GMT -5
Yeah Rich I was catching up and reading you going on and on about Lightfoot s lynch and was remembering that it was the Serial Killer that killed her not Town. I do find it quite suspicious that Guiri is right that you/Scum pounced on anyone who used the word "kill" and yet are doing it again here. Did you pull the same role twice?
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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 23, 2012 20:39:06 GMT -5
Yeah Rich I was catching up and reading you going on and on about Lightfoot s lynch and was remembering that it was the Serial Killer that killed her not Town. I do find it quite suspicious that Guiri is right that you/Scum pounced on anyone who used the word "kill" and yet are doing it again here. Did you pull the same role twice? Nope. I wish I had pulled Scum again. I was quite comfortable playing that role by the time I was finally lynched. Lightfoot's use of the word "kill" was the only thing we could find that might have led someone to think her Scum. We were assuming a Town aligned Vig. I do not remember if Guiri ever explained why he thought her a Mason. I had no intention to "go on and on" about KidV's "slip". I intended only to point it out in case it sparked a further thought in someone else as well as to help me remember it in case KidV did something else suspicious later on. Despite the in-applicability of Lightfoot's case to KidV's, I stand by my observation: It sounds like the Town got lucky to me. It's not the first time that a Mafiate has been lynched for referring to kills instead of lynches. Some of the tells that have got people lynched have been ridiculously slender; that's robust by comparison.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Sept 23, 2012 20:42:23 GMT -5
Sure. it's a datapoint on KidV. But it is also just as useful as a datapoint against whoever called KidV on it, imho.
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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 23, 2012 20:51:28 GMT -5
Sure. it's a datapoint on KidV. But it is also just as useful as a datapoint against whoever called KidV on it, imho. That's true enough. And I have no problem with that. Every Town player should welcome examination because every player should be examined.
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Post by Parzival on Sept 23, 2012 21:24:59 GMT -5
Given how close this could be, I think we need a clarification:
End of day ties for lynching are resolved by earliest vote. Do the mercenary bid votes count as being placed 'earlier' for purposes of the end of day lynch, or are they the last votes to be applied?
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Post by sinjin on Sept 23, 2012 22:37:55 GMT -5
Nope. I wish I had pulled Scum again. I was quite comfortable playing that role by the time I was finally lynched. Hmmmmm
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Sept 23, 2012 22:46:56 GMT -5
Sure. it's a datapoint on KidV. But it is also just as useful as a datapoint against whoever called KidV on it, imho. That's true enough. And I have no problem with that. Every Town player should welcome examination because every player should be examined. What did we used to call this back in the day? Overly-implied Townieness or some such?
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Post by Meeko on Sept 23, 2012 23:24:12 GMT -5
We were discussing the possibility of my lying about having 12 hidden votes in order to make a sympathy play to get Mahaloth lynched. I explained that I think the odds of another player out there having won the bid and not countering my claim yet are probably fairly small. Are you sure you disagree with that assessment? Yes I did misread the discussion. That happens when I read Meeko's posts a lot. Glad to have some one read my po....... HEY!
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Post by KidVermicious on Sept 24, 2012 1:27:20 GMT -5
No, I was a backup of some sort in Ragnarok. That's how I knew you bastards were lying about your Mason claim, because I'd earlier been confused about my role and claimed "mason-ish" and nobody countered. If you'd been real Masons you'd have counterclaimed and I knew it and I never should have let you bastidges get away with that. :mad: Who was Balder then? I remember you, Peeker, and NAF on the scum team, was there somebody else? Alpha Centauri Mafia! *thwacks him over the head.* (SisterC, you might want to avoid clicking the next link.) Remember this? Oh, that... lol. I didn't do that! I wasn't the one that couldn't keep it in my pants and then decided to claim even though I knew there was a bus driver on the scum team. Would you accept a plea bargain? I admit I laughed a lot...
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Post by KidVermicious on Sept 24, 2012 1:39:23 GMT -5
Given how close this could be, I think we need a clarification: End of day ties for lynching are resolved by earliest vote. Do the mercenary bid votes count as being placed 'earlier' for purposes of the end of day lynch, or are they the last votes to be applied? I asked Pollux that very thing, the answer is yes, they were applied at Dawn. I'll have the tiebreaker over anybody until/unless somebody else gets to a higher vote threshold first. I hit 14 votes with Mahaloths last vote, so it'll take somebody else getting to 15 (or me going down to 13) before I lose the tiebreaker.
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Post by Askthepizzaguy on Sept 24, 2012 1:48:04 GMT -5
It sounds like the Town got lucky to me. It's not the first time that a Mafiate has been lynched for referring to kills instead of lynches. Some of the tells that have got people lynched have been ridiculously slender; that's robust by comparison. I think it's beyond absurd to call that a tell. Hitler had a mustache. Lynch him, he was a Nazi, sure... but having a mustache is not a Nazi tell. It's not a tell just because it correlated one time, or even two times. How many times did it NOT correlate? When that number overwhelms the times that the "tell" worked, it's not a tell. Correlation does not imply causation.
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Post by Askthepizzaguy on Sept 24, 2012 1:53:20 GMT -5
unvote crysvote KidvI'm hoping he does have votes from Night 0 on him. Vote: MahalothThat sort of thing makes my already skeptical opinion of you go south. Odds are still low that you're a scumbag overall, since it's D1, but much better than KidV IMO
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Post by Askthepizzaguy on Sept 24, 2012 1:54:55 GMT -5
Vote Mahaloth stupid tags.
Highlighted things stay highlighted even after adding tags on every other board I frequent.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 24, 2012 3:09:12 GMT -5
<snipped> so lynching a townie is better than lynching a claimed non townie is a good thing? *blinks* Not being omniscient, I am unaware of players' alignments in this game unless their alignment is made public knowledge. Rest assured, if I knew beyond a doubt that the lynch was a choice between Pleonast's current incarnation and a poor maligned townie, I would vote for pleo. And wonder why the hell everyone voted for the townie in the first place. Pleo does not need the threat of the lynch to force him to disgorge any and all information he possesses. That's why I'd rather not waste the lynch's intel opportunities on someone all-too-ready to spill his guts. Pleonast has already claimed to be non-Town, so wouldn't that put him in the category of 'anything else' in your statement here? I'll ask you again; if you think we shouldn't lynch Pleonast, then who do you think we should lynch? Or are you simply advocating that we all " vote not-Pleonast"? I snipped my post out of your's without reading expecting I wouldn't need to review my own words but I see you're quoting me as saying anything else. Don't remember the context of that but feel free to substitute unknown in the future. We've got info on pleo and whether it's right or wrong, it can be used to validate or discredit him. We have the option to learn about pleo+someone else or to learn about only pleo. And you feel the second option is the better one. Safer? Probably. Best? Not really. I'd like to lynch Colby, I think. Haven't really thought beyond that. I don't have a problem with Pleo having votes. Ending every day with a good 4 or 5 is a nice way to remind him not to step out of line. But I don't think he needs legions of votes all on day 1. Mahaloth, well, at least most of his votes are coming from a place of relative scum hunting in that they're actually analyzing a PM but they're still weak votes. By the way: @ Inner: I understand your perspective on this. However, can you at least acknowledge that your argument is based on the assumption that Pleonast is telling the truth? You've provided reasons for that assumption and I accept them as reasonable - and accept that you yourself are convinced by them - but I don't agree with you that they're dispositive and I think there is still a good chance that Pleonast is lying about some or all of his role. And even if he's not, he's refused to work with us. As I said in my opus above, the alignment the mod gives you is not the only way to be hostile to the Town's interests. Pleonast's role might not be hostile to Town, but Pleonast himself, so far, has been. In general, I assume people are telling the truth and there's not enough gristle in Pleo's posts for me to really take issue with it yet. I reserve the right to change this opinion in light of new information but I'd also like the chance for new information to come to light. The lynch should be for total unknowns and strongly suspected scummers. Not a garbage disposal for 3rd parties we're too lazy to think about. And pleo's hostile because people keep killing him for daring to have a different strategy. I guarantee you, if you all ignored him for a couple games, you'd find him much less bellicose.
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 24, 2012 7:53:24 GMT -5
And pleo's hostile because people keep killing him for daring to have a different strategy. I guarantee you, if you all ignored him for a couple games, you'd find him much less bellicose. <snipped> PIS? i keed i keed.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 24, 2012 7:53:39 GMT -5
Post draft I've spent some time ploughing through the thread, taking notes. While I need to do some more research, I also want to set down my thoughts. I want to clear a couple of points out of the way before getting down to the big issues later. 1. KidV. KidV came onto my radar late, with his claim of being vote leader owing to having bid high for the Mercenary's services. I can't see why he'd lie about this, frankly. He was trying to skate by without having to admit he'd bought a Night action, but when the vote leader started losing votes he saw a probable unexpected lynching and owned up. KidV's position deserves more than this, but if I start dgging now I won't get everything done. I plan on reviewing his posts (assuming I have time before Nightfall – about four hours) after this. 2. Meeko. Meeko has pinged me slightly, although the issue seems to have dropped off everyone's radar. In D01.171 Meeko says this. “Scum know what Pleo is, and is not. Town do not have this advantage. “ He later claims that this is about Marathon Mafia. Why, then, is it not written in the past tense? I need to keep an eye on Meeko, and it would help if others tried to read his posts. That's cleared the minor points away. What remains is reviewing Pleo and Mahaloth. I'm gong to look at the latter first, and come back to Pleo a bit later.
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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 24, 2012 8:35:48 GMT -5
It's not the first time that a Mafiate has been lynched for referring to kills instead of lynches. Some of the tells that have got people lynched have been ridiculously slender; that's robust by comparison. I think it's beyond absurd to call that a tell. Hitler had a mustache. Lynch him, he was a Nazi, sure... but having a mustache is not a Nazi tell. It's not a tell just because it correlated one time, or even two times. How many times did it NOT correlate? When that number overwhelms the times that the "tell" worked, it's not a tell. Correlation does not imply causation. Personally, I think everything that was labeled a tell in my last game is iffy at best. Clearly, in Mafia "tell" does not mean a sure thing. Information is so lacking that any small thing can mean something. Skimming is a tell? Maybe, but then it might be a Town who simply does not have time to read 23 pages. Defensiveness is a tell? Or maybe a real life personality trait. Third one on a bandwagon? Are you kidding me? This is why the game is hard. There are few true tells. Us simpletons (or is it just me?) have to work off of what little we (I?) understand.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 24, 2012 8:37:35 GMT -5
Mahaloth. Mahaloth first came to everyone's notice with his claim in D01.203. He claimed Aarthur Dent, wannabe townie. According to his claim he can win only if he finds or is found by a Townie, and then becomes one. He also has a one-shot kill. He has attracted heat for three broad reasons. 1. Mahaloth's claim says that in order to win, he must become Town, but it also says that if he finds or is found by a Townsperson, he has the option to become Town. Many have argued that this cannot be right. However, giving Maha an option here is in accord with the rules of the game, which states that a player being recruited always has the option of refusing. Thus, I would be more suspicious if Mahaloth had claimed he had no choice. Further, it has been shown that Mahaloth's power can be used to determine whether a given player is Town or not-Town. (This is useful when Mahaloth goes Town-hunting, but not so much if a Townie comes hunting him.) By refusing recruitment until he has built up a small set of investigations – say 3 or 4 – he could provide some verifiable data. Consequently, the fact that he can refuse recruitment is not, in itself, a ground for disbelieving his PM. 2. Mahaoth has expressed his intention to use his one-shot kill Tonight, on the grounds that he might get killed before using it. He has since recanted (or at least is thinking about not using it) under some pressure. I would advise him not to use it Tonight for a couple of reasons. Firstly, by shooting blind he's taking out someone that the Town might need later on (and that should concern him given the nature of his claimed wincon). Secondly, there are people he cannot kill.That implies, to me, that some among us cannot be killed. Maybe there's a Scotsman somewhere and they can throw off even Vogon poetry (once). (Or maybe one role is named Paula Neil Milne Johnson of Redbridge, Essex.) In any case, there is a potential to waste the kill if Mahaloth shoots blindly. I count this a null tell (with a slight shading towards fakery). If Pollux provided the PM (in which case it could be either true or false) then Maha overlooked the issue, or Maha drafted it himself and didn't realise the implication. Personally I believe it was Pollux-provided (a gut feeling based on style) but it's been edited. 3. Giving only one way for Maha to win – become Town or lose – doesn't feel like a fun role. I think it would be far more fun if Mahaloth had a choice in what alignment to adopt. How might that be implemented? Power the first doesn't really lend itself to recruitment by either side; the most likely reason for a Mafiate to visit someone Overnight is to kill them, and that would result in Mahaloth dying and losing. (That's the way it works if he's Vigged, according to his claim, and I believe that bit – probably because I'd have done it the same way.) Power the second can work a recruitment to either side. Mahaloth would get a choice to join whichever side the person he visits is on. Power the third also works very well for recruitment to either Town or Mafia. You replace whoever you kill. (That's been used around here before, by Storyteller I believe.) Looking at that power's wording.That last sentence, as presented, feels a little tortuous – why doesn't it say “ you will be given the opportunity to change alignment to Town?” Answer; because it's saying that if you haven't already become Town you will be given a chance to become Mafia. That last also explains why he'd be given a chance to choose whether to convert – because he may want to become one side but gets a chance to become the other first. I believe that the PM was really provided by Pollux, but has been edited to support a claim that Mahaloth can only become Town. That inclines me to favour the death of Mahaloth over Pollux, subject to further research. Vote: Mahaloth . I'm going to spend an hour doing RL stuff, and come back to review Pleo and KidV.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Sept 24, 2012 8:45:04 GMT -5
Third one on a bandwagon? Are you kidding me? Actually not. This is backed up with statistical analysis. One of our early players (JSexton) has a great deal of experience playing in other boards. Part of that culture was that they tracked game history quite extensively. Analysing stats from their games showed that the third vote on a player later shown to be Town was placed by a Mafiate more often than statistically likely. it thus became a Mafia tell. JSexton placed a vote using this knowledge, and the person he voted for was lynched and came up Mafia. Of course, knowledge of this little tell meant that Mafia players checked their tendency to place the third vote, and then started accusing Townies, so "claiming the third vote is a Mafia tell" itself became a Mafia tell. But yes, it's real - provide d that the person voting doesn't know about the statistics.
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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 24, 2012 8:55:34 GMT -5
<snip> Please also note that while peeks as iron man was designated town by color, peeks as deadpool was not. What that means, I dunno, but it seemed worth noting. So when the moderator puts a players name in the color blue, it indicates the player is town? And other colors mean??
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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 24, 2012 8:58:58 GMT -5
The Dawn's color was colored blue for the references of Peeker having referred to himself as being Ironman. I'm not inclined to put much weight in the Mods color or the Mods color of the color for that matter. The Dawn's color...?? Is "dawn" shorthand for a Day's first post by the moderator?
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Post by Rich Beckman on Sept 24, 2012 9:01:24 GMT -5
NETA
And "Dawn's color of the color" means what??
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Post by KidVermicious on Sept 24, 2012 9:14:16 GMT -5
The Dawn's color was colored blue for the references of Peeker having referred to himself as being Ironman. I'm not inclined to put much weight in the Mods color or the Mods color of the color for that matter. The Dawn's color...?? Is "dawn" shorthand for a Day's first post by the moderator?
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Post by KidVermicious on Sept 24, 2012 9:14:42 GMT -5
wtf
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