Day Seven

[Gir!]

sinjin said:

EBWOP;

Gah, I just read Kat's post from another point of view. She could be saying she's hoping that Klutz is right about Parzival, not about there being no blade-runner.

Exactly. I want him to be right, because it would make it easy for me to choose who to vote for.

Sorry I'm experiencing a major sense of paranoia at the moment. And yes I do think they are out to get me.

But is it paranoia if they really are out to get you?

[RoOsh]

captainklutz said:

Yes, I had extra knowledge before the game. Please come up with a scenario where it makes sense for a non Town role to be given information about a town power role before the game.

This is where I had the biggest hangup.... Because I can't answer that Q. It just doesn't make sense. However, CaiS' points do seem to be valid questionings. I however still feel you are more likely to be Town than others here, Klutz. Perhaps if I continue reading, my mind will change (This post is pretty much being composed AS i read along chronologically).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

sinjin said:

Finally, Why is Roosh so desperate to live today if he's going to die at dusk anyway?

Where have I stated this? NOWHERE.
THIS IS A LIE. A STRAWMAN, Sinjin.

I have only stated that LYNCHING me is foolish. As I'm ALREADY dying. I'm anti-Wasting a lynch. Not against me dieing, because... well that ship has sailed (in my eyes. Yeah, I've already submitted my scene, and i think i look pretty bad ass in it). But I have NEVER stated anything other than so far. I'm pretty accepting of the fact that I'm dying. so where's this "desperate to live" shit coming from, Sinjin?

And a TRAITOR mason claim?
-Really?
--REALLY?
-That's just PURE Bastard Mod. I've ONLY seen that in KNOWN bastard mod games. It's so fucking ridiculous that its crazy.... At this point, I think it's reaching for straws. Just... Wow.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

parzival said:

Finally, I'm almost inclined to lynch [Sinjin] solely based on your actions of the last few nights. Rather than try and reduce the suspect pool, you opted to 'hide'. Even if you have that power, it's a crappy way to treat the town. You had a close to 50% shot at confirming someone, and you opted not to do it.

Thank You.
I agree 100% with this.
Even though I think you're not particularly the most trustworthy of persons right now, I def. Agree with you on this point. AMEN.

~~~~~~~~~~

sinjin said:

So I planted the device on Roosh before the game began. Does this seem even remotely plausible? Has a player ever had an action in Mafia before that takes place before the game begins?

Has a Chia-Bingo manager EVER existed in the history of Mafia before?
And yes. The role of "Cupid".
BOTH of those were done pre-game.
The player with said role created/ did actions BEFORE the game started.

sinjin said:

Not so

Wow. Great defense.

sinjin said:

I am the last identifiable human left except for digit and traitor Cat.

Wait. How do WE KNOW you're Human?
You NEVER gave ANY proof of that. Only your word that you are a human. So you have a device that proves OTHER People can be humans.
Why couldn't a replicant have the same device and use it to find out the Blade Runner and other unfriendly replicants??

You HAVE NOT proved ANYTHING about your towniness, yet, nor have your actions. You've simply been telling us that 2 people are Town.
-One person was the Governor, who WE ALL KNEW was town because Pleonast fucking said so ALREADY. So... Good job on verifying that.
-The other person was Kassia. A Speculator.

So far your "helpfulness" to the town has... well it's not been very helpful at ALL. The blue pee gun sounds like a nice trick, but it doesn't make you TOWNIE in anyway, because scum could just as EASILY have a use for a device like that too. Especially since Pleo 's death has already shown there's been a Non-Scum replicant.
:claps:
I...
I... can't beat that one.
She said "No." Well gee.... Thanks. And here I was kinda hoping for a mass confession from my killer before Dusk.
~~~~~~~~~~
And again, you're twisting my words.
I'm not Pro-wanting me to live. I'm PRO-Not wasting a lynch.
I'm already Dieing. WHAT POSSIBLE Good can come out of the Town WASTING it's Lynch today on a person who is already GOING to Die?

sinjin said:

And if you're filled with so much hate for me hiding what about Roosh?

This one I can answer.
It's simple: GREATEST GOOD.
My being alive longer allows me to try to protect others from dying and giving us a chance. I tried to protect those I found would be targets.
I only protected myself when 1. I was unsure of what to do. And then 2. When I realized I was probably going to die. And 3. When I LEARNED that I could try to fix myself.

So uh. Yeah. I acted AS MUCH AS I possibly Could in the best interests of the TOWN. I kept protecting Atarus, and only protected myself (nights 5 &6) when I felt I had blown my cover AND when I was told I could try to prevent my death.

If i had succeeded, I wouldn't be dying, and I've have a chance to protect more people tonight. But I certainly then wouldn't worry about being attacked, and I'd try to help as much as possible.
~~~~~~~~~~~~`
As for Why Didn't I keep protecting NAF? :shrug: That one was my fault. I didn't playing so loose actually. I had already not protected myself 2x, and I felt vulnerable. Plus my protect was so low back then I was still trying to figure it out.

As for 5 I've already explained those. I felt I was a HUGE target having already given out the # of replicants which if I was correct, the scum would realize that something is up with me.
And Night 6- Well.... This one is a NO BRAINER. I was given a hint in a PM that I could try to use my current % to try to disable the device if I self-protected. Which I tried and failed to do so.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

catinasuit said:

If true, and it was part of his opening PM, then yes, you were set up to fail.

This is really unlikely and I think some further explanation from Roosh is in order.

I don't see this as being set up to fail.
Since the start I've known I've had a device on me.
And That There was someone looking for me.
I've also had a % given to me to protect others and myself. IF you remember it was a 34% at first.
-And the ONLY way it increased was via the # of REPLICANTS being killed going up.
-So FROM THE START I only had a 34% chance of succeeding at protecting or saving myself.
My role basically started out extremely weak, it's just we've had a number of replicant deaths to increase my abilities.
--I view this as a semi-Back up doctor. Because the longer I stay in the game, the more equal to regular doctor I become. So it's VERY advantageous for me to try to survive until the endgame.
-HOWEVER, my character started out with this device on me. I don't know if I was chosen pre-game by someone or If it just came with my Role. But my flavor seems to indicate it CAME with my ROLE.
--I actually see my role as being VERY balanced if Sinjin is a Speculator and not a Replicant.
-Because my Role is initially very WEAK vs. Replicants, but over time I become Extremely useful, especially as their numbers decrease.
HOWEVER, if a speculator planted the device on my leg, then it gives THEM a chance to balance out my roles. As if they found me, they would have an easy way to kill me during the DAY (As my device was passive, until it was activated 1.5 days ago). And from its activation, I've pretty much become USELESS as a doctor as I've been focusing on myself.
-If i was targeted earlier, I might have only been given a 34% chance of survival. And this would be huge. I just managed however to keep surviving, and the device activated when I had 67% due to all the replicants dying off.
-- And YET, EVEN WITH the % I've still failed. AS i'm dying at dusk, I just happen to find out who did this to me. Sinjin. I don't know your role, if its replicant or speculator, but I DO know you are MOST CERTAINLY NOT TOWN.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

But this is why I think my role was balanced so well:
-As a backup doctor, I started out weak, but I could grow over time to protect better vs. Replicants. HOWEVER, I could NOT Indefinately last till endgame by simply just protecting myself over and over. For if the case ever came that Every replicant was Dead, and I was 100% effective- even if I was protecting myself every night to ensure survival, there was still a role out there that could simple active my device causing me to die off. So i couldn't be an unkillable doctor. I was/am a doctor with a very ingenious way to be eliminated.
And by having my death during the DAY, it cuts off the chance of failure by whatever group that did this, because It doesn't waste their night kill on trying to kill me. That's my 2 dollars on the role so far.
-I don't see how that sets up a Scum group for failure. If anything it sets ME as a doctor up from being invincible towards the endgame as both groups could have a chance to remove me (if the speculators WERE the ones to implant me)- the replicants would do best to kill me off earlier, while the speculators would be better off killing me later in the game, since I could probably help protect them vs. replicants early on.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

captainklutz said:

I think Roosh's device was part of his role PM and sinjin has been looking for him all game (if it were planted by selecting him on Night zero then it would not have been very hard to find him). I would say there were 2 possible outcomes after the device was activated:
1. If Roosh can disarm it then he would not have learned who planted it.
2. If Roosh fails to disarm it he will die. As compensation, he learns the identity of the one who planted it.

Ah good. Someone states my point more clearly.
Yes. this is what I'm trying to say. I DO find it interesting that Sinjin DID mark me down though as her first target on Day 1 though.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

parzival said:

Does your fashion accesory say "See you in hell. Love, Sinjin", or is it something like "Speculators, Inc. Bent on World Domination since 2021"? You've implied that it's the former, but in 7.24 you used 'they' so I'd like you to clarify that.

Its actually the latter.
There's no personal message, just a metal tag sorta thing that I manage to pry off and discover that it's been linked to our town's very own Sinjin. Hence the plot hole. Why the name IS ON the device isn't really made sure, but I apparently recognized the tag as being indicative of Sinjin's handiwork. if I've said They, it was my own fault then, as i'm not really sure if its a group or what. I just apparently pulled off a metal device portion off of it, and recognized its handiwork as being that of Sinjin.
I was just pretty much told after working on it blah blah you failed blah blah but you discover all is not loss blah blah, you reconize this to be sinjin's handiwork blah blah.
HOW i recognized it as such isn't clear. The emphasis was more on the fact that I'm "dying at dusk, and sucks for you, but here's a compensation for your hard work" sorta thing. hence why I feel there was a plot hole. As i don't know HOW i KNOW. I'm just TOLD I know.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

parzival said:

And Roosh tomorrow if he's still alive.

Joy. I advocate this plan having submitted my death scene. If I SHOW UP tomorrow alive, PLEASE. JUST LYNCH ME. Don't trust me THEN. Because right NOW I know my role, and from what is given to me, I'm dying at Dusk. So If I DON'T die, then something is horribly wrong and LYNCH/Nightkill whatever me. But I can guarantee my Truthiness currently for now up until Dusk. And that's all i ask of you guys. Just believe me until I die and prove myself as being Town.

~~~~~~~Jeez this is a long post so far. I've only read up to post #80 so far~~~~~~~
So I'm gonna cut it off here and post right now, and then continue reading/commenting/posting as it goes on. All the above is stated with only the information having read up to post 80 toDay.

[RoOsh]

Comments so far:

Gah! Numbers! :eyes glaze over:
I just like this quote:

sinjin said:

To the unitiated this would seem to be a truely random vote. However you manipulated the data first by multiplying by 100 and then only using 635535 rows and then taking mod 25 to get a number 24. This type of data is so easily manipulated it's laughable.

Because I HAVE NO IDEA what it means. But the candor and tone in my head of someone SAYING such a line... just amuses me.
This comment has It has nothing to do with the game, it's just late and I needed a laugh. And the line "its laughable" made me laugh.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Meh. No other comments after finishing up the readings.

My stances:
-Still anti-Sinjin. She's DEF. NOT TOWN. Dunno if she's a speculator with the technology or a replicant with a funky gun or a crazy lone dude, but def. NOT TOWN.

-Still feel I'm dying at Dusk.
Easy one there to deal with:
--If I die at Dusk. I'll have proven myself as Town EASILY and you can trust all my statements.
--If I don't die. Um... Kill me. by Personal request.
And see what turns up, because I'll admit, Even I will be curious then. Done and Done.

-Feeling less sure, but feel Klutz is pro-townie.

-Parzival- Not sure. I'm kinda 50-50 at this point.
I dunno. I could see him easily as scummy but I could see him as not scummy. I don't feel he's a lynch for today.

No real big reads on the others.
I would wait and lynch Sinjin and Me. Then see what happens at Night. And then from there work it out paying attention to Parzival with the newer information from Sinjin's, Mine, and whoever dies at night's death. (CAIS as a TRAITOR Mason? COME ON. That right there just REEKS of scummy desperation to me).....

However, Since I've only got one more vote I've ever gotta do, I fee QUITE confident in my vote. And content in letting the Town figure the rest of this stuff out the Next Day.
I'm still QUITE confident in the Town and I think you guys can still pull out the W.

Good luck, and Good night.

If there's ANY more Qs for me, lemme know and I'll try to do my best to get to them. But I'm only online at nights around this time usually.

[CatInASuit]

As we are getting closer and closer towards endgame where fewer votes can make more of a difference, I would just like to remind everyone of the lynching rules again.

If at any time a true majority of votes are placed on a single candidate, voting is immediately frozen at that point. The Governor will then have six real-life hours to decide whether or not to proceed immediately to a lynching, or to allow an 18-hour Stay of Execution during which further discussion, voting, and unvoting may occur. The Governor may declare only one such Stay per game Day. Under no circumstances may a Stay extend a Day beyond its natural limit.

The Governor may not issue a Stay of his or her own execution. If a majority vote is reached to lynch the Governor, the execution will be carried out immediately.

sinjin - If I was a traitor you would be lynched by now.

diggitcamara - you may need to log on a bit more often in case these events start to happen.

I don't want to prove Pleonast right about the Guv'nor role being an anti-town mechanism

Also, where is zuma v 2.0 - is he actually interested in playing this game at the death or not? And the last thing the game needs is a mod-kill. Somehow I doubt a sub is on the cards.

[Captain Klutz]

Well, I've been trying to determine which of Death By Irony and zuma.v2 is the Nexus-9 and which is the assassin.

I have assumed that the Nexus-9 was avoiding the scum boards for the first few Nights as it's way of avoiding activation (I know that is far from established fact, but it's the best guess I have at the moment). In this case, scum would have probably been puzzled at their leader's absence and may even have suspected that he/she had a different win condition or something, and so would be a touch cautious or suspicious of him/her. This would have been allayed on Night 3 when atarus revealed his info. The Nexus-9 would probably have joined the scum board on Night 3 (or possibly Night 4).

I first looked at Days 3, 4 and 5, trying to detect some sort of difference in tone between them and the known scum. But I didn't notice anything (I think we need someone like Tirial to detect that sort of thing).

Then I looked at the Night posts. My thinking was that if someone is not visiting the scum board then they are less likely to be around to post to the game board.

On Night 1 DBI had 1 post (zuma also had 1 post but that was for a different role).

On Night 2, DBI had 1 post, zuma.v2 had 2

On Night 3, DBI and zuma.v2 had no posts. This was the Night after Pleo's lynch. It's a bit odd that neither of them had anything to say that Night (the only other player who didn't join in that Night was Kat.v2, who is another unknown)

On Night 4, DBI had 3 posts, zuma.v2 had none

On Night 5, DBI had 2 posts, zuma.v2 had none


It's very marginal, but DBI seems to have been slightly more active in the Night threads following Night 3. Overall I slightly favour DBI as the Nexus-9 and so zuma.v2 (who interestingly made the "apparently shitty Doc" comment), is therefore the assassin.

[CatInASuit]

sinjin said:

And as for claiming no nanoing to avoid being caught or telling tales about who I tested ala' Klutz: HELLO! I could have claimed I tested anybody who is dead or even alive. Hey I tested Cookies, Tragic, Kat, Parzival etc. I tested those I said I tested, in the order I said, no more no less. If you want my reasons I'll give them, although I'm a bit embarrassed about the first one.

<oog>
Embarrassed about the first one - now you have no choice but to tell us ;D
</oog>

[RoOsh]

My eyes are wide open as well.
()

[sinjin]

Cat: Yes you didn't go along with the insta-lynch that was forming. Good move. You can now point to how fair you were in allowing me a couple of hours to prove my innocence when I turn up pro-colony at death. This may help you survive another couple of days if necessary to fulfill your win condition in case your calculations are slightly off and you don't instantly win with my death toDay.

So fellow colonists you have a hard choice to make toDay. It is truly a WIFOM situation. You have two apparently inconceivable situations in front of you:

1. I am indeed a speculator and due to a plot hole and or deliberate planning by story I was specifically set up to fail from the start. In this scenario a bomb was planted on Roosh, in his role PM, that would eventually point directly to me as the planter: " sinjin's handiwork." And if this wasn't enough to get me specifically lynched, CatinaSuit, a trusted mason, was also given information in his role PM that linked my role device to a scum group. Coincidently both of these pieces of information were made known to the colony simultaneously.

2. A scum infiltrated the masons.

I don't really have anything more say. I believe the timing of the "sinjin" revelations indicates that the game is over or very close to it with my mis-lynch. Choose wisely colonists.

One last thing: Parzival, sorry about the nasty remark at the top of my last post to you. I just hate mathmagic.

sinjin, The Scientist, Pro-Colony Investigator

[CatInASuit]

sinjin said:

sinjin, The Scientist, Pro-Colony Investigator

Another investigator

Lets see now, that makes as claimed

Pleonast - Blade Runner - Investigator
Kat v.1 - Neuromancer - Investigator / Role Blocker
sinjin - Scientist - Investigator
Captain Klutz - Code Runner - Backup Investigator


That's a lot of investigators for a game. I would have expected two at the most or one and a backup, but 3 investigative types and a backup?

[sinjin]

How quickly they forget.

Firefly investigative roles:

Mal: cop
Inara Serra: backup cop
Mr Universe: watcher
Dr. Mathias: investigator looking for River
Jubal Early: invertigator looking for River
River: gets one investigation if found by Dr. Mathias

And if I understand it correctly in this game Katv1's investigative power was very limitted. Mine also has constraints that have already been discussed. Why exactly are you so surprised???

[CatInASuit]

Firefly:
Mal - investigator from the start
Inara Serra - Only became investigator when Mal died
Mr Universe - Watcher - only sees actions - no tell on role from the start

River Tam specific investigation roles.
Dr. Mathias - Only gets a River / No River result
Jubal Early - Only gets a River / No River result
Hand of Blue #1 - Only gets a River / No River result
River - gets a one-off investigation if found by Dr Mathias (Required River to not be hiding)
Then throw in the fact River Tam could hide at night and the roles become even less in power and use.

Blade Runner
Rick Deckard - Investigator from the start.
Neuromancer - Has one investigation/ one watch / one track from the start.
Scientist - 50% identify on Colonists from the start
Code Runner - Picks up Neuromancer results, only if investigated by Neuromancer.

I would say the town was doing much better in this game for investigators from the start, wouldn't you?

Another question for you then. Assuming you are telling the truth and my info on the Speculators equipment is accurate, then where is it and why haven't we seen it in action seeing as it needs to be used by the Speculators to control the Replicants?

[RoOsh]

sinjin said:

1. I am indeed a speculator and due to a plot hole and or deliberate planning by story I was specifically set up to fail from the start. In this scenario a bomb was planted on Roosh, in his role PM, that would eventually point directly to me as the planter:

It did not appear to me to "eventually" point to you. It was simply due to my high % of success. I had a 2/3 chance of success. I just wasn't able to succeed, but apparently did well enough to discover who did this.

I don't think that at 34% if i had failed I would have discovered who did this or anything like that.
I just believe that due to my high chance of success I was able to discover it. (:shrug: if i was designing something like this, I'd do that too, maybe have the 2:3 chance of success, but in failure maybe do another quick % thing to see if ANY good came of it sorta dealie at least). Because I consider myself as failing. Because as of tonight, the Town will have lost it's doctor leaving it very vulnerable. And you speak as if my naming of you is the failure of your group (if you are in one). From the outcome YOU may have been set up to lose, but then again SO have I.
From the start I've been wired with this thing to blow.
I think we were in the same boat. Hell, you were the one yesterDay who told me to Suck it up and had your laughs at my expense to try to fix it tonight. I just think you got caught off guard and didn't expect me to find out.
But still. Most Uncool.

[sinjin]

catinasuit said:

Firefly:
Mal - investigator from the start
Inara Serra - Only became investigator when Mal died
Mr Universe - Watcher - only sees actions - no tell on role from the start

River Tam specific investigation roles.
Dr. Mathias - Only gets a River / No River result
Jubal Early - Only gets a River / No River result
Hand of Blue #1 - Only gets a River / No River result
River - gets a one-off investigation if found by Dr Mathias (Required River to not be hiding)
Then throw in the fact River Tam could hide at night and the roles become even less in power and use.

Blade Runner
Rick Deckard - Investigator from the start.
Neuromancer - Has one investigation/ one watch / one track from the start.
Scientist - 50% identify on Colonists from the start
Code Runner - Picks up Neuromancer results, only if investigated by Neuromancer.

I would say the town was doing much better in this game for investigators from the start, wouldn't you?

Try to be more accurate Cat:

Pleonast, investigator from the start can't report results or loses his power

Katv1, three investigative actions that can be used only once

sinjin, can nano one person per night. 50% of humans wee blue at different time intervals due to absorption rates of nanobots thru the skin and the metabolization rate of same. Replicants not affected. Can't determine alignment

Klutz: claims neuromancer back-up but only gets investigative powers if Katv1 uses one of her three on him. (I think that's how it works. I haven't really paid attention since he doesn't get to use them because Katv1 didn't investigate him)

So no it doesn't seem to me the town is doing better for investigators in this game vs Firefly. YMOV

Another question for you then. Assuming you are telling the truth and my info on the Speculators equipment is accurate, then where is it and why haven't we seen it in action seeing as it needs to be used by the Speculators to control the Replicants?

I don't think the info you presented on the Speculators equipment is accurate. I think you are a Speculator in mason's clothing and Roosh is either a Speculator too or one of your pet replicants. I have no idea how you control replicants.

[diggitcamara]

sinjin said:

(snip)

I don't think the info you presented on the Speculators equipment is accurate. I think you are a Speculator in mason's clothing and Roosh is either a Speculator too or one of your pet replicants. I have no idea how you control replicants.

SPECIAL NOTE
Alignment is fixed in this game. There will be no mechanism by which a player's alignment may be changed once randomly determined prior to the outset of the game. (TRANSLATION FOR CLARITY: THERE WILL BE NO RECRUITMENT IN THIS GAME).

(from the ruleset)

Now, one could argue that speculators controlling replicants might offset that rule but I rather take it that the speculators (from the start) have to control replicants and win with them, rather than by themselves.

storyteller has declared more than once (in other games) that he hates the use of recruitment in these games. And I don't think he'd lie on that rule in particular.

So, sinjin, would you like to change your statment ?

So fellow colonists you have a hard choice to make toDay. It is truly a WIFOM situation. You have two apparently inconceivable situations in front of you:

1. I am indeed a speculator and due to a plot hole and or deliberate planning by story I was specifically set up to fail from the start. In this scenario a bomb was planted on Roosh, in his role PM, that would eventually point directly to me as the planter: " sinjin's handiwork." And if this wasn't enough to get me specifically lynched, CatinaSuit, a trusted mason, was also given information in his role PM that linked my role device to a scum group. Coincidently both of these pieces of information were made known to the colony simultaneously.

2. A scum infiltrated the masons.

One of those two is truly more inconceivable than the other...

[CatInASuit]

sinjin said:

Assuming you are telling the truth and my info on the Speculators equipment is accurate, then where is it and why haven't we seen it in action seeing as it needs to be used by the Speculators to control the Replicants?

I don't think the info you presented on the Speculators equipment is accurate. I think you are a Speculator in mason's clothing and Roosh is either a Speculator too or one of your pet replicants. I have no idea how you control replicants.

I was asking a hypothetical question to get a reasonable answer from you, not another ad hominem

[sinjin]

Now, one could argue that speculators controlling replicants might offset that rule but I rather take it that the speculators (from the start) have to control replicants and win with them, rather than by themselves.

Look I don't know how many times or how many ways I can say it. I have no idea how replicants are controlled. All I know is what I read in Kassia's death notice.

I also don't know anything about the speculator's win condition or how many there are although Cat seems to know a lot. How much he's posted is true I don't know.

[diggitcamara]

sinjin said:

Now, one could argue that speculators controlling replicants might offset that rule but I rather take it that the speculators (from the start) have to control replicants and win with them, rather than by themselves.

Look I don't know how many times or how many ways I can say it. I have no idea how replicants are controlled. All I know is what I read in Kassia's death notice.

I also don't know anything about the speculator's win condition or how many there are although Cat seems to know a lot. How much he's posted is true I don't know.

Right. That wasn't the point of my post, though.

1. Would you agree that the speculators can't win with the town?

If you agree with statement 1:
2. Would you agree that that makes CatInASuit's v. 2 purported recruitment impossible? (in accordance with the rules of this game)

Or if you don't agree with statement 1:
2. 2. Would you agree that that makes CatInASuit's v. 2 purported recruitment a moot point?

[sinjin]

Ok, I'm done here. I just hope that the colonists left will go back over Day and Night 6 and Day 7 and make the right choice. I will post this one last time just as a reminder:

So fellow colonists you have a hard choice to make toDay. It is truly a WIFOM situation. You have two apparently inconceivable situations in front of you:

1. I am indeed a speculator and due to a plot hole and or deliberate planning by story I was specifically set up to fail from the start. In this scenario a bomb was planted on Roosh, in his role PM, that would eventually point directly to me as the planter: " sinjin's handiwork." And if this wasn't enough to get me specifically lynched, CatinaSuit, a trusted mason, was also given information in his role PM that linked my role device to a scum group. Coincidently both of these pieces of information were made known to the colony simultaneously.

2. A scum infiltrated the masons.

I don't really have anything more say. I believe the timing of the "sinjin" revelations indicates that the game is over or very close to it with my mis-lynch. Choose wisely colonists.

If you chose to believe that story set me up personally to lose from the very beginning in two seperate players' role PM's, so be it.

sinjin, The Scientist, Pro-Colony Investigator

[CatInASuit]

sinjin said:

Look I don't know how many times or how many ways I can say it. I have no idea how replicants are controlled. All I know is what I read in Kassia's death notice.

I also don't know anything about the speculator's win condition or how many there are although Cat seems to know a lot. How much he's posted is true I don't know.

Ok, Lets try this again for the last time.

From my contacts, I know that the Speculators have technology to control Replicants. This technology does not work on humans and has a 50% side effect.

Although there is no recruitment, my method of Speculator win condition seems reasonable. If there are more Speculators and controlled Replicants than remaining town members, the Speculators win. The Rogue Replicants will not know they are under controll until it is too late (hence no recruitment in the game), but fits my info well.

So, if you are a town Scientist and I am a truthful Mason, where are the side effects of the equipment the Speculators have used.

Can you provide a hypothetical situation where we can both be true or does one of us have to be false?

[sinjin]

Ok, sorry for being snippy. I'm feeling a little beleaguered today.

The only other person who mentioned a strange effect was Parzival who said he experienced something like what Rugger did but didn't want to go into details about it. I quoted his statement above. So given:

1) that only 50% of humans have side effects

2) a large number of colonists are already dead some of whom possibly died before they had symptoms or chose to admit they had symptoms

3) Rugger and Kassia being outed as human by me so no need to use their technology on them either

4) The mason claims and my claim so no need to use their technology on us

5) They were looking for replicants while I was looking for humans

6) I only managed to make two people pee blue.

It's possible that the speculator technology you described could be that which effected Parzival.

[Parzival]

Warning : This post contains math

I have more comments, but this post is just a response to Sinjin's criticism of my math. I'm only showing how valid it was, so there's little point in reading all this if you don't like math. [Added on preview - except the last paragraph which explains my odd sig yesterday - no secret message, just a bad pun.]

Firstly, the random vote. Your point is basically valid that the numbers, having already been posted, could be manipulated, so I'll let that part go only mentioning that 65535 is not arbitrary - it pops up in computers all the time as it's 2¹⁶-1. The real problem was that I was an hour or two late in using it. Ideally I would have stated my method before the data was posted, and then applied it. At that point I was tired of looking for usable numbers and we only had a day to elect the Governor. I still think it's a good method for getting a publicly verifiable random number.


In my suggestions on using the blue pee device to detect replicants I never once asked you to reveal who you'd tested, as that defeated the purpose of it. Here's one quote from me (bolding added but notice the emphasis on the if) :

5.67

Sinjin, if there is someone on the list who you nanoed and they don't report, AND IF you also find them suspicious, and vote for them, please mention this fact. I don't think it means the town should definitely lynch them, but it's probably better than 1/3 chance, so should weigh heavily in people's decisions.

It later turned out I was completely wrong about the numbers because as you revealed the test didn't produce results right away. At the time it seemed like a good idea (and was valid based on what I knew), even if it was only for your benefit.


Finally, there's the question of your hiding the last few days. Roosh has elaborated more on why confirming someone for the town was better than keeping yourself alive. So this is just the math.

Note first that I said "close to 50%" and not '50%'. This was based on a rough estimate of scum and town remaining and your shot of picking a human. I later realized that your own pool of suspects would be smaller since you'd tested people already. But since you've now questioned me, here's a rough analysis :

At the end of Day 5, there were 15 players left. Take out yourself and the four people you already tested - 10 players.

If you assume 4 replicants remained, you had a 6/10 shot of picking a human. Thus a 3/10 shot of a response, and a 7/10 shot at failure.

(Taking out the night kills changes this slightly, as does assuming a different number of replicants.)

Night 6, there were 11 people alive. Your suspect list would be down to 5 if the previously tested person lived, and 2 replicants. So again 3/10 shot of success, and 7/10 for failure.

The chance that you succeed at least once is the chance you don't fail twice. This is equal to 1 - (7/10 * 7/10) = 1 - 49/100. That's actually 51%, so my estimate the first time was better.

As I'm sure you'll point out this did not mean we'd have those people confirmed right away. I'll also allow that you may not have been aware of the numbers. But it was really all you could do with your powers for the town, and better than what you say you gave us - which is nothing.


One more thing - the "Penfold mood organ" sig? Crumbs! A deliberate typo. It was an obscure joke, and meant nothing more. I've changed my sig about every Day so far, but I like this one and think I'll stick with it. [it's a quote from the game Portal, by the way].

[Parzival]

Okay, I won't be involved much more Today but I'm not going to change my vote from Sinjin. I will give a few more comments -

Captain Klutz
I sort of buy that you missed catching up when voting for Roosh but ignoring Sinjin's hide claim without comment seems a bit off. Still, my focus is on Sinjin today - I don't see a reason to go after anyone else as I trust Cat and don't believe Sinjin.

For anyone who thinks I might be a Speculator - I went back and looked at how the events went the morning of Day 5:


5.5 - Santo Rugger responds to Cat in a Suit saying something funny happened to him.

5.9 - I ask Santo a bunch of questions.

5.13 - Santo responds, saying it was not violent, but "peaceful".

5.14 - kassia mentions a "pissy mood".

5.15 - I ask a few more questions, and state my reading of the event as :

-a non-violent event.
-the result of a Night Action.
-indeterminate as to whether the agent was truly pro-town or not.
-continuous/has lasting effects(?)

5.16 - Sinjin explains her ability.

5.21 - Santo asks whether people who don't pee blue notice being nanoed.

5.24 - Sinjin replies "Only about 50% notice anything has happened."

5.28 - Sinjin explains that it essentially only works to confirm humans.

5.46 - kassia claims blue pee.

5.48 - I ask sinjin whether someone might notice being nanoed without peeing blue. When I wrote this I hadn't read kassia's post.

5.52 - I mention that somebody did something to me, and say that sinjin can ignore my previous question.


I think it's more useful now if I finally explain what happened to me. That way people can compare it with what Sinjin did and decide for themselves.

This is what happened to me Night 5:

Someone made me black out. I sensed a presence, and the next thing I knew it was morning. Here's the only odd bit, though - When I woke up I felt extremely cheerful and had no memory of what happened while I was out (if anything).

(Hence when Santo said "peaceful" I thought that might have been the same thing, since it was pretty much a peaceful sleep).

[sinjin]

If someone wants me to I'll point out the flaws in Parzival's latest bit of math, if not, I won't. I think it's just a distraction at this point.

[Parzival]

Sinjin - unless you're going to come up with a number that's nowhere near 50%, I don't see the point either. I did say it was a rough analysis, so it's not like 51 is a magic number. The larger point still stands - you failed to do anything to aid the town when you could have.

(And if you want me to be fair, Roosh failed to protect you the last two nights when he ought to have as well. But he's dead today or tomorrow so it doesn't matter so much.)

[sinjin]

Parzival, I did my best for the colony.

After claiming I hid because it seemed to me a live sinjin, 100% colonist confirmed by me to me, was better for the colony than the small possibility of nanoing another human AND the nanoed human being one of the 50% who wees blue AND living to confirm said human. In retrospect, since the putative back up medic protected himself instead of me, hiding was absolutely the right thing to do.

So bottom line you really do want to lynch me because I hid?

[Captain Klutz]

parzival said:

Captain Klutz
I sort of buy that you missed catching up when voting for Roosh but ignoring Sinjin's hide claim without comment seems a bit off. Still, my focus is on Sinjin today - I don't see a reason to go after anyone else as I trust Cat and don't believe Sinjin.

After the info reveal from CIAS2 and Roosh, sinjin was pretty well damned as a Speculator, so anything she said was to be taken with a large dose of salt. Although thinking about it, the Speculator's various possible win conditions look to be quite difficult to achieve (having to stay alive and control some replicants) so a hiding ability could be reasonable.

However, she is still a threat to the Colony winning, so I still think that she is the best lynch for toDay.


Returning one more time to the 5 unknowns:

DeathByIrony
Kat v2.0
Parzival
zuma v2.0
Captain Klutz

The backup Blade Runner is likely to be targeted toNight, so if he/she has any investigation results about one of these players then it's probably worth sharing. Otherwise it's probably better to keep quiet for the time being.


I've now run out of things that I wanted to say toDay. I'm happy to redo my vote for sinjin, but I'll wait until others are happy for the Day to end.

[RoOsh]

sinjin said:

Try to be more accurate Cat:

Pleonast, investigator from the start can't report results or loses his power

Try to be more accurate, Sinjin.
Pleonast COULD report his results. He couldn't reveal HIS OWN role. He could have made up the fact that he was an investigator though and been fine in stating his results. He just couldn't CLAIM Blade Runner.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

parzival said:

This is what happened to me Night 5:

Someone made me black out. I sensed a presence, and the next thing I knew it was morning. Here's the only odd bit, though - When I woke up I felt extremely cheerful and had no memory of what happened while I was out (if anything).

(Hence when Santo said "peaceful" I thought that might have been the same thing, since it was pretty much a peaceful sleep).

Um... I had to go back on when she died.... But... Did you have sex with a pleasure Robot, sir? Did you use protection? WD-40?
Cuz that sounds like a role blocker type of power to me.
Either that, or you maybe a replicant and gotten controlled by a Speculator if you don't remember what you did that night.

[RoOsh]

sinjin said:

After claiming I hid because it seemed to me a live sinjin, 100% colonist confirmed by me to me, was better for the colony

:sighs:
Ya know... I think if you asked ANY of us, we'd say we're ALL colonists confirmed by themselves to themselves. And ya know what... some people would even LIE about it!

So you haven't really confirmed yourself at all, you MIGHT have been confirming others, but again, just because your DEVICE proves humanity, doesn't mean you're a human for it....

[RoOsh]

captainklutz said:

I've now run out of things that I wanted to say toDay. I'm happy to redo my vote for sinjin, but I'll wait until others are happy for the Day to end.

:Thumbs up: I've said my prayers, made a hearty meal, and written my death scene. I'm down with ending this Day whenever you guys are, because I don't really think we're gonna get much further here.....

The truth will be in the pudding, and I think it's the only way you'll see it, because right now it's come down to ad hominems and crazy math and conspiracy theories on Evil Masons.

[CatInASuit]

Well, this day has confirmed the thoughts I have had about the remaining players and I am happy for it to end whenever

vote sinjin

Storyteller - can you give zuma v2.0 a nudge