|
Post by nesta on Mar 6, 2008 17:15:09 GMT -5
Before I read any spoilers, yes, I'm a fucking idiot. Write my name on the wall of utterly boneheaded mafia moves next to Winston Smith. If Pleo isn't scum, goddamn you storyteller.
|
|
|
Post by nesta on Mar 6, 2008 17:16:06 GMT -5
Yep, totally wrong. Goddamnit.
|
|
|
Post by nesta on Mar 6, 2008 17:26:20 GMT -5
On second thought, what sach said. That was all on purpose. Playing for the stalemate. Yeah...
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Mar 6, 2008 17:34:25 GMT -5
I thought it was a brilliant Scum move in the face of a BuddhistMonkBeatDown (Self-immolation Style) from the Town, Nesta, if it helps. But then I saw that you never realized that Story might NOT have self protected, and that you ACTUALLY DID think that Pleo was scum- after which I could only wince in pain at that realization. Oh well, you made the day more interesting, and I certainly wonder now if the Town could get a shot as winning since now there's a FULL confession by you up there. So they can try to piece together the actions of scum, and maybe if one scum group will try to get greedy and play for the full victory in any chance. As far as I see it, sharing a victory with one other scum group isn't particularly better than sharing it with two (worse than winning outright, much better than losing)... lynching scum toDay means there's a possibility of losing the game. Lynching an unknown is much more likely to assure a pan-scum victory. I would totally want 50% of the victory glory rather than 33%, So I could totally understand trying to bump off at least one scum. Screw the Pan-Scum victory. I want to be better than SOMEBODY at least!
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 6, 2008 18:01:23 GMT -5
33% isn't really a possibility. 3 scum factions would need to decide to lynch someone, leaving 2 to share the win. Sucks for #3 though.
|
|
|
Post by nesta on Mar 6, 2008 19:36:58 GMT -5
For anyone confused by my mistake that Dio's partner would have been immune, on Night 1 on the scum boards it was cleared up that if both members of a faction are targeted on the same night the father survives. I thought this had been posted in the game thread so that the town would know what I was talking about.
Once again I was being a moron, because yes, four people died, so no one was blocked. Somehow that completely escaped me today.
Time for me to take another break from Mafia for a while. I really don't have enough time to play it like I would like, and end up doing stupid things.
|
|
|
Post by nesta on Mar 6, 2008 19:47:17 GMT -5
Oh, and one last thing and then I'll shut up. I think Pleo and Rugger should have left me alive if they really want a shot at winning. I really would have held back from killing anyone, and they had already blown my theory of them being the other two scum out of the water. They could then use the rest of the Day to find the other scum, and with my extra information they had a shot at figuring out who the Shu was and lynching him/her. Then Pleo gets a shot at blocking. Rinse and repeat Tomorrow.
By lynching me they killed their best chance at a win, but I guess they were OK with that anyway.
I guess maybe the Shu might hold off to avoid the stalemate, and the Wei could end up targeting the Shu, but that doesn't seem likely.
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Mar 7, 2008 3:45:32 GMT -5
But then again, Nesta, Could they have trusted you after you just IMPLICATED the last major townies as SCUM?
Heh, maybe if you hadn't said Pleo and Rugger were scum, I could see them striking a deal, but after you just posted saying THEY were scum and deserved to die. I could totally see them wanting you dead.
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 12:57:16 GMT -5
Weirdness. Town could actually win this thing?
|
|
Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Death By Irony on Mar 7, 2008 13:32:35 GMT -5
Only if they lynch the Shu guy toDay and the Wei attacks a Doc-protected target. Bloody unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.
|
|
|
Post by Hawkmod on Mar 7, 2008 13:42:34 GMT -5
Except that's not what's going to happen. The Shu scum has no reason not to off Pleonast. The Wei scum can do whatever, because if the Shu targets Pleo and Pleo dies, the game is over for the town. Pleo lives! That is what you get for expecting logical actions in this game. So they are currently arguing how to achieve a stalemate that Death already clarified would not be considered a stalemate, but rather a scum win. Dad, you are missing out on the fun
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Mar 7, 2008 13:43:44 GMT -5
Bloody unlikely? Nah. It's 25%, if Pleonast can bring himself to trust Santo Rugger somehow.
But everyone in this game appears to have lost their minds. Pleo wants to play for a draw, for no reason that I can see (it's just a game! Go for the win!). The Wei scum targets piratepete for no good reason. No one targets Pleonast, who is confirmed.
No one deserves to win this game. The Mandate of Heaven should squash us all, for sucking at Mafia.
|
|
|
Post by Hawkmod on Mar 7, 2008 13:56:56 GMT -5
Bloody unlikely? Nah. It's 25%, if Pleonast can bring himself to trust Santo Rugger somehow. But everyone in this game appears to have lost their minds. Pleo wants to play for a draw, for no reason that I can see (it's just a game! Go for the win!). The Wei scum targets piratepete for no good reason. No one targets Pleonast, who is confirmed. No one deserves to win this game. The Mandate of Heaven should squash us all, for sucking at Mafia. Huh? The scum win tonight regardless of the day's actions. The only question is whether it is a shared victory.
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 14:07:14 GMT -5
Huh? The scum win tonight regardless of the day's actions. The only question is whether it is a shared victory. If they manage to lynch the Shu faction. AND Pleonast manages to Block the Wei Faction at Night THEN Day 7 will dawn with 2 Town and 1 Wei. Winnable. But 25% is generous. Pleonast would need to guess who is Shu (1/3) Guess who is Wei (1/2) Guess who to protect (1/2) So the chance is 1/12. Not too terrific. But the amazing thing is even with 4 mislynches, Town's chances are non-zero.
|
|
|
Post by Pollux Oil on Mar 7, 2008 14:12:44 GMT -5
But everyone in this game appears to have lost their minds. Pleo wants to play for a draw, for no reason that I can see (it's just a game! Go for the win!). To be fair, Pleo has had a defeatist attitude about the town's chances of winning since the beginning of the game. That could be a reason why the scum kept him alive. I mean, he is basically handing the game to the scum right now if he chooses to vote for himself.
|
|
|
Post by piratepete v2 on Mar 7, 2008 14:16:52 GMT -5
Aha, there's a better offer on the table now. Wei coöperation is, sure enough, the only way for Town hope. But how to decide between the rival scum claims?
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 14:18:02 GMT -5
I'm pleased as punch that the endgame is turning out to be somewhat exciting. After the Kat lynch, I thought the endgame would be perfunctory and boring.
Pleonast's call for a mass claim is a good one. It puts scum on the spot. Claim Town? Claim Wei even if you are Shu? Choices! Pushing a claim makes Pleonast's choices easier too. If Shu claims Wei, then Pleonast will at least know who is scum: then the town's chance of winning goes way up (25%). Interesting!
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 14:20:51 GMT -5
Santo Rugger and Pleonast are out-of-phase. Pleonast was ready to throw in the towel and Santo Rugger talked him out of it, now Pleonast has a decent plan for the win and Santo Rugger is ready to give up.
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 15:10:29 GMT -5
Is it me or has MHaye trapped himself? Pleonast should know now that MHaye is the last Shu. MHaye tried to claim Town, and might have been able to convince Pleonast that Santo Rugger is the Shu Faction, but 1) Even if MHaye can get Pleonast to lynch Santo Rugger, the result is a tie with Cookies. 2) Santo Rugger has been claiming Town all Day.
MHaye's unvote of Santo Rugger doesn't make sense. With both MHaye and Santo Rugger claiming Town, clearly one of the two is the Shu Faction. It is highly unlikely that Santo Rugger would be the Wei faction and falsely claimed Town AND Cookies is the Shu faction and falsely claimed Wei. Just doesn't make sense. If MHaye were town the logical conclusion is that Santo Rugger is Shu. But he Unvoted.
Perhaps I'm suffering from perfect knowledge, but MHaye looks like he revealed himself to be Shu.
Santo Rugger's unvote of MHaye makes sense because at the time MHaye had not claimed, and Santo Rugger was waiting to see if MHaye claimed Wei.
MHaye has no such reasoning to back up his unvote.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Mar 7, 2008 15:12:55 GMT -5
Yup. I really think mhaye is kind of stuck. I'm not sure Santo and Pleo can get their acts together well enough to execute the lynch, but if they do, the game comes down to Vizzini vs. Westley, period, full stop.
|
|
|
Post by Hawkmod on Mar 7, 2008 15:20:34 GMT -5
Well that depends if Cookies wants to take her chances against Pleo. She could guarantee a split win by voting with Mhaye. If she votes with Pleo/Santo, she only has a 1/2 chance of winning.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Mar 7, 2008 15:22:03 GMT -5
Well that depends if Cookies wants to take her chances against Pleo. She could guarantee a split win by voting with Mhaye. If she votes with Pleo/Santo, she only has a 1/2 chance of winning. Yeah, but pursuing a 100% chance of a draw - not a split win, but a draw - over a 50% chance of a win would be pretty weak.
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 15:24:15 GMT -5
This is pretty fantastic.
|
|
|
Post by Pollux Oil on Mar 7, 2008 15:34:46 GMT -5
Weirdest. Ending. Ever.
Cookies is going for the solo win here. I kind of want mhaye to bite it so we can have the entire game come down to whether Cookies can outguess Pleo's save.
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 15:54:09 GMT -5
I hadn't considered the Wei/Zhang endgame situation. If MHaye dies Today, then it will REALLY be a WIFOM situation. I had been thinking it would be a 50-50 coin-flip as to who would win, but I forgot that we could have Wei/Doc left over.
A true WIFOM has an element of risk and IMBALANCE to the situation. In this case it will be that a Doc-Town-Wei Night leaves two choices for Doc and 2 choices for Wei. If Doc self-protects, and Wei kills Town, then Stalemate. If Doc self-protects, and Wei kills Doc: Town Wins. If Doc protects Town and Wei kills Town: Town wins. If Doc protects Town and Wei kills Doc: Wei wins.
So the "logical" choice is for the Doc to self-protect. But since scum know this, scum should kill Town. But since the Doc knows, scum knows this, Doc should protect Town...
Finally, a real WIFOM moment.
|
|
|
Post by Hawkmod on Mar 7, 2008 15:54:41 GMT -5
Sach,
I think you are incorrect on your ruling for Santo
" A Goon lynch results in immediate victory for the other faction, regardless of the Town player's role"
So it would not be a draw, but rather a scum victory
|
|
|
Post by nesta on Mar 7, 2008 15:55:07 GMT -5
Wow, quite the Day so far. I hope Pleo and Rugger figure it all out and go for the win, and I hope they get it. To me that would be the most satisfying ending. Oh, and I need to give Rugger credit for his play style this game. It seemed incredibly scummy from in game, but his throwing suspicion at everyone toward the end led to my demise, and if Pleo can think back on how things went down Yesterday I think he has a pretty good chance of realizing that Rugger has played the most pro-town of everyone these last couple of Days.
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 15:56:12 GMT -5
let me look at the ruleset.
|
|
|
Post by Hawkmod on Mar 7, 2008 15:56:48 GMT -5
I'm quoting from Death's clarifications on day 1
|
|
|
Post by sachertorte on Mar 7, 2008 15:59:10 GMT -5
The scum role PM says "You win when you are the last faction standing and you have a majority, or nothing can prevent the same." 1 scum - 1 doc looks like a stalemate from that perspective. I'll look at Day 1 now.
|
|