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Post by Malacandra on Jun 13, 2007 12:07:59 GMT -5
Day dawns on a mist-haunted sea, the Hispaniola adrift in a world of ghostly grey. The party spirit of the previous night is a distant memory, banished all the more effectively when the body of Autolycus is found in the sail locker, the victim of a frenzied knife attack. No fewer than forty-seven wounds are found on his person, of which as many as thirteen might have been fatal individually.
Scarcely has the shock of this murder subsided when Idle Thoughts is found with the back of his head scientifically bashed in with a belaying pin.
Idle Thoughts (Crew) and Autolycus (Pirate) are dead. Day Five will end 9pm my time on Sunday evening.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 12:10:20 GMT -5
Wow.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 12:12:47 GMT -5
Holy crap!
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 12:13:39 GMT -5
So:
(1) Idle killed by pirates, Auto (you sneaky scum!) killed by Dick, Gunn not activated or was blocked.
(2) Idle killed by pirates, Auto killed by Gunn, Dick missed or was blocked.
(3) Idle killed by Dick/Gunn, Auto killed by Gunn/Dick, pirates blocked.
Any other possibilities?
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 13, 2007 12:13:40 GMT -5
--FCOD
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 12:13:41 GMT -5
Hey, we got one. Now what the hell does Auto's death tell us?
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 12:14:33 GMT -5
So: (1) Idle killed by pirates, Auto (you sneaky scum!) killed by Dick, Gunn not activated or was blocked. (2) Idle killed by pirates, Auto killed by Gunn, Dick missed or was blocked. (3) Idle killed by Dick/Gunn, Auto killed by Gunn/Dick, pirates blocked. Any other possibilities? Them's the options as I see em.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 12:16:12 GMT -5
Huh. Um, thanks, misguided Dick or well-guided Ben. I can't say I'm surprised about Auto, personally. Sorry, Idle. So the day begins finally and I have to go out for the day. So sad.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 12:18:06 GMT -5
Ok, I missed option 3-- that's possible, isn't it? Dick would want Idle dead, too. (OMG someone will certainly interpret that as a scumtell, won't they?)
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 12:20:27 GMT -5
Well, the obvious point first: Looks like NAF was grievously wrong about Idle being a pirate. With Idle's death and with the whole zuma- Idle- NAF conflagration yesterday (which resulted in Idle looking pretty good, if not being confirmed crew), you gotta wonder whether the pirates were protecting one of their own from further vocal suspicion. 'Cause no one can do vocal suspicion better than Idle. (We'll miss you, man. Don't kick us off your board now that you're dead!)
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 12:25:25 GMT -5
Now Idle gets to enjoy it thoroughly from afar-- perhaps Mal will let him in on the dirt as a fellow admin.
I'm having a hard time, frankly, imagining the pirates or Dick killing Auto, but I think that's because I was pretty darn sure of his scumminess, and others' miles may vary.
Aside from these new deaths, of course, is the other main business of what in Zuma's farewell was bullshit and what not and what he left out and what he implied.
But now I really do need to go for now.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 12:28:29 GMT -5
Yeah, sorry Idle. I will avenge your death!
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 13, 2007 12:29:46 GMT -5
I realize I'm making a bit of an assumption here, but...
:points at Dick and Gunn, let's out a Nelsonesque "Ha ha!":
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 12:31:20 GMT -5
capy:
Wait...the pirates can't kill Auto in any event, can they? He had to have been killed by either Dick or Gunn. (Sounds like a law firm in a porn film.)
Not that the Officers should confirm it one way or the other, but I have to believe that zuma would have been telling the straight up truth in his farewell post. If he was actually trying to help the pirates, he would have had no reason to lie about any of that.
More troubling to me, actually, is zuma's consistent and fervent defense of capy, at one point (as I noted on Day Four) even going so far as to give her advice about posting less. Is that a smokescreen, or is there something there?
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 12:32:03 GMT -5
I realize I'm making a bit of an assumption here, but... :points at Dick and Gunn, let's out a Nelsonesque " Ha ha!": Well, Ben's SUPPOSED to kill pirates, right?
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Post by Hal Briston on Jun 13, 2007 12:33:13 GMT -5
Hmm...actually, Dick would be the only one upset at killing a pirate, wouldn't he? Right...if an activated Gunn nailed Auto, then he'd be happy about that. Too damn many roles to keep track of. Either way, woohoo, got one! And yes, I know the difference between "let's" and lets".
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 12:34:03 GMT -5
capy:Wait...the pirates can't kill Auto in any event, can they? He had to have been killed by either Dick or Gunn. (Sounds like a law firm in a porn film.) --snip-- More troubling to me, actually, is zuma's consistent and fervent defense of capy, at one point (as I noted on Day Four) even going so far as to give her advice about posting less. Is that a smokescreen, or is there something there? A) Good point. B) Well, not that you have any reason to believe this, but I suspect (well, *I'm* sure) smokescreen and/or annoyed by my constant babbling?
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 12:37:16 GMT -5
You're not the only one who babbles constantly, I have to say. (236 posts and counting, w00t!)
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 12:41:59 GMT -5
On a more responsive note, though, I've been steadfast in my feeling that capy is town, so I have to admit that I'm not the most capable advocate of the "zuma and capy sitting in a tree" theory, but it does seem strange that he was always there for you. Maybe he just picked a townie to suck up to, hoping that his scumminess would rub off on her in the end.
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Post by tirial on Jun 13, 2007 12:44:38 GMT -5
Um. Okay, that was unexpected. Rest ye in peace Idle Thoughts. Autolychus, you can rest in piece(s). At least someone on this ship is killing pirates, whether its Dick or hopefully an activated Gunn. Whichever of you it is, keep up the good work
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 13, 2007 12:47:03 GMT -5
Woohooo! I have a bit of editing to do to bring my notes up to date...I will be back shortly with a couple of posts.
;D Yay Crew!!!
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 13, 2007 13:02:16 GMT -5
Here is an updated version of voting events through Day Four. I reached the conclusion that Pleonast was the other mason about halfway through Day Four, as it seems a few others did too. Sneaky Sam’s manifesto seems to support my theory, and it was reached in much the same way. I don’t know about trusting his claim the FCOD is the Doctor. I’m going to list Pleonast as confirmed for these purposes. I’ve also got some analysis and questions, but I am going to split it into two posts because otherwise it’s going to get very long.
Dead Crew or Crew Power Role – Lime Green Alive Confirmed – Orange SCUM - Purple Pirate - Teal
(I hope someone continues my legacy when I get offed. Quote this post, copy and save it into a word file, and you will have all your coding.)
Day One Votes ArizonaTeach = 0 zuma Auntbeast = 0 Mad The Swine, hockeymonkey Autolycus = 0 Pleonast, Mad The Swine, Cookies, Gadarene, FCOD, Kyrie Eleison, Gadarene, CaerieD Blaster Master = 1 NAF1138, panamajack, capybara CaerieD = 0 NAF1138 capybara = 5 FCOD, Blaster Master, fluiddruid, FCOD, MHaye, Mad The Swine Cookies = 1 Pleonast, Gadarene cowgirl = 0 Kyrie Eleison, fluiddruid DiggitCamara = 0 NAF1138 FCOD = 0 NAF1138 hockeymonkey = 1 Lakai Idle Thoughts = 1 capybara, hockeymonkey, cowgirl, capybara,capybara KatiRoo = 9 Pleonast, storyteller0910, panamajack, ArizonaTeach, Cookies, zuma, Gadarene, CaerieD, hockey monkey, NAF1138 Kyrie Eleison = 1 Idle Thoughts, Lakai Lakai = 1 panamajack, Kyrie Eleison Mad The Swine = 1 KatiRoo,auntbeast NAF1138 = 0 Kyrie Eleison, ArizonaTeach Pleonast = 0 panamajack storyteller0910 = 2 diggitcamara, auntbeast zuma = 0 Pleonast
Day Two Votes MHaye =7 Blaster Master, Gadarene, zuma, hockey monkey, Pleonast, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, ArizonaTeach, hockey monkey, Kyrie Eleison hockeymonkey =5 Lakai, NAF1138, FCOD, Hal Briston, Autolycus, diggitcamara, Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach FCOD =3 hockeymonkey, storyteller0910, Kyrie Eleison, MHaye, cowgirl, diggitcamara, Autolycus, MHaye, Gadarene, capybara NAF1138 =2 Auntbeast, tirial auntbeast =1 Mad The Swine, Pleonast, MadTheSwine Lakai =1 panamajack, hockeymonkey MadTheSwine =1 capybara, capybara Cookies {now Tirial} =1 Pleonast, NAF1138 ArizonaTeach =0 zuma Kyrie Eleison =0 Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach panamajack =0 hockeymonkey zuma =0 storyteller0910, MadTheSwine
Day Three Votes auntbeast =5 Pleonast, hockeymonkey, Mad The Swine, panamajack, NAF1138, ArizonaTeach, Blaster Master hockeymonkey =4 Autolycus, FCOD, panamajack, diggitcamara, auntbeast Hal Briston =2 ArizonaTeach, Lakai, Mad The Swine, zuma, NAF1138 Lakai =2 Hal Briston, Gadarene Autolycus =1 capybara Idle Thoughts =1 zuma NAF1138 =1 Idle Thoughts zuma =1 Mad The Swine, auntbeast, Lakai, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach cowgirl =0 Gadarene panamajack =0 hockeymonkey, Blaster Master tirial =0 zuma, NAF1138
Day Four Votes Idle Thoughts = 1 NAF1138, capybara, Pleonast, FCOD, MadTheSwine, ArizonaTeach, Hal Briston, Hockey Monkey, capybara, panamajack, zuma, Blaster Master, tirial NAF1138 =0 Idle Thoughts zuma =17 Idle Thoughts, Autolycus, MadTheSwine, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, FCOD, capybara, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey, panamajack, tirial, zuma*, Blaster Master, cowgirl, NAF1138, diggitcamara, Lakai Autolycus =0 Pleonast
*zuma didn't unvote Idle Thoughts so his vote for himself didn't count.
Again want to see if we can glean any info from these vote records.
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Parzival
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Post by Parzival on Jun 13, 2007 13:14:46 GMT -5
Considering that zuma didn't know who was town or pirate (except for those he investigated), we can't really deduce much from who we chummed up with or not. If he'd been pirate, we could guess about capybara and others, but really all we have is who he guessed to be a pirate.
As for the deaths ... wow.
Question 1 : If Idle is the Pirate kill, why go after him? Maybe they thought he was Steele. I'm guessing that there they have only a few candidates for Steele at this point (by analyzing posts after zuma's claim and weeding out the Pirates).
Question 2 : I hope it's not too much open strategy to ask whether Dick would go after autolycus? Maybe he thought HE was Steele (for the zuma vote). I don't want to get them killed, but I just think the Officers seem like too much of an obvious target for Dick to pass up - especially after Sam's apparent confirmation, unless he's concerned about protection on them.
So now it seems entirely possible Gunn was activated - my guess is on Night Three. Pirates possibly blocked by Steele or did go after Idle, and Dick simply missed or hit Idle (who seemed crew or better).
I'm not sure exactly where that gets us, unless Ben feels like coming forward to help clarify (again, can't say if that's the best plan either but it seems like it might help the town to know more).
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Parzival
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Post by Parzival on Jun 13, 2007 13:17:13 GMT -5
darn it! who he chummed up with.
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 13, 2007 13:17:17 GMT -5
And now for some observations.
Please note that right now, I am not drawing conclusions from these observations. I am pointing out things I see, and looking to get feedback from the rest of the crew. I will draw conclusions later based on my own observations and the feedback received. Remember the Fern Forest is the Serial Killer/Autolycus is the Godfather debacle in M2 that I single handedly and erroneously orchestrated? Yeah, I don’t want to do that again.
OK, so on Day Four, the Pirates clearly knew that zuma wasn’t one of theirs, so it’s not unusual that everyone voted for him. What I’m wondering about are Autolycus and MadTheSwines early votes when the rest of us were choosing Idle as the better lynch. I understand if they didn’t believe his claim, because I was dubious myself, but clearly at that point, logic pointed to Idle Thoughts. And now I know that Auto was a Pirate.
Speaking of Idle, zuma said he wouldn’t reveal the subject of his first nights investigation…could have been Idle, might not have been. If he investigated Idle and he came up Pirate, then it would have been ludicrous for zuma to frame him, as he wanted to ingratiate himself with the Pirates. If he investigated Idle and he came up crew, then he would have had a good reason. I don’t think zuma would have taken the chance of framing someone who he was not sure was not a pirate. Savvy?
So I start to wonder "who did zuma investigate on Night One?" I think he may have investigated Idle and he came up crew. This is where the above line of logic leads me and I wonder if anyone else agrees. I also have another line of logic that spits out a different answer: see below.
Now that I am going back and analyzing zuma’s posts with hindsight, this jumped out at me from post #257 on Day Three.
And from post #86 on Day Three
Post #231 on Day Two (I know I’m doing this backwards, but isn’t that how you follow breadcrumbs?)
Post #230 Day Two
Post #89 Day Two
The Day One posts are few and don’t hold any breadcrumbs, but he basically says he’s not comfortable with the capybara lynch and votes Katiroo. Throughout the entire game he has maintained his feeling of capybara’s crewiness. Did he investigate capybara on night one and get a pirate reading? Was he breadcrumbing to the Pirates that he knew who one of them were, as to reveal his role to them? Capybara was the 2nd vote on the Idle train yesterday, then unvoted, and revoted Idle again before it became clear that zuma was lying. I admit I had my feelings of crewiness for her too, but I think we are putting too much stock in a “town tell” and have let her skate. Time to put her under the microscope.
I think it’s a fair assumption that Pirates will occasionally vote for one another to throw off suspicions. Please take a look at the votes for Autolycus over the last few days.
As to Dick, it is possible that he has met his quota and is now a Pirate. However, according to my notes I think he has 2 kills and only one more to go. I don’t know if there is any way we can ferret out Dick, but I think we should try. Question: Does Dick stop killing on his own when he is accepted into the pirate clubhouse?
OK that’s all I can think of right now. I’m looking forward to hearing other opinions and analysis.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 13:22:03 GMT -5
Interesting voting chart, hockey. Thanks. Nothing jumps out at me at the moment but lots of pretty colors, but I'm taking a walk to get some coffee right now (I mean, um, I'm heading up to the crow's nest to untangle the rigging), and I'll take it with me to peruse.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 13:26:55 GMT -5
hockeymonkey:
Good idea. That would be:
Day Four: Pleonast (confirmed town) Day Three: capybara Day Two: none Day One: CaerieD, Cookies/tirial, FCOD (confirmed town), Gadarene, Kyrie Eleison (confirmed town), Mad the Swine, Pleonast (confirmed town)
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 13:41:31 GMT -5
Also maybe a good idea to see who Auto voted for.
Using HM's list:
Day one: Nobody Day two: Diggit, ended the day without a vote Day three:Hockey Monkey Day four: zuma
Huh. The most interesting thing about this to me is that he only voted for one person a day. Don't know what it means, but it is interesting.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 13:43:50 GMT -5
*whistles* Yoo hoo! Hey NAF...care to comment on Reply #9 above? Just seems odd you've posted to this thread a couple of times since then and haven't had anything to say about it.
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 13, 2007 13:50:51 GMT -5
Question: Does Dick stop killing on his own when he is accepted into the pirate clubhouse? Yes - he's a vanilla pirate (or the new Pirate King) from then on.
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