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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 21:50:19 GMT -5
Ouch. Misspelling my name and calling me helpful. You do know how to wound. My observation of Mafia III, at least, teaches me that the scum do tend to adopt varying posting frequencies, whether intentional or not. I still like Blaster's post a couple of Days ago about how fake-random looks much more random than true-random, such that the frequency distribution of the living pirates plus Auto is likely to look more spread out than a similar distribution of four (I tend to agree that that's the most likely number) randomly selected crewmembers. *headsmack* again. I'm obviously tired and need to sleep.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 13, 2007 21:53:21 GMT -5
So with Auto in place as well:
Gadarene (250) capybara (229) NAF1138 (180) *ArizonaTeach (164)
Blaster Master (129) hockeymonkey (118)
Autolycus (84) *FlyingCowOfDoom (82) panamajack (73) MadTheSwine (71) Cookies/tirial (67) CaerieD/Hal Briston (62) diggitcamara (61)
cowgirl (52) *Pleonast (47) Lakai (27)
And I should point out again that these postcounts are influenced by a tremendous number of not very useful things...not least of which being (since Auto's postcount has apparently gone up noticeably since he died) posts that players have made in threads other than the Day and/or Night threads. Still interesting to play around with, though.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 13, 2007 22:40:03 GMT -5
Cross-referenceing Gadarene's list with the Lynching Wagon list from Day 4 (I'm not counting zuma's Day 4 wagon, 'cause everyone was on it.)
I've also removed the confirmed/dead because for the purposes of this list, I'm trying to find scum.
Name (Lynch Wagon Count) Gadarene (2) capybara (0) NAF1138 (2)
Blaster Master (2) Hockey Monkey (3)
panamajack (2) MadTheSwine (1) cookies/Tirial (1) CaerieD/Hal Briston (1) diggitcamara (0) cowgirl (0) Lakai (0)
With this cross-reference, I think the people we need to be looking first at are capybara, diggitcamara, cowgirl, and Lakai. Capy and Lakai are the outliers, and I think deserve the most attention today.
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 22:52:20 GMT -5
Ok, Hockey Monkey. I seem to be your project of the day. So I don't jump on bandwagons of people I don't think are scum (including yours, if you recall. . .). Look away. What's your theory? Whaddya wanna know?
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 23:03:36 GMT -5
And, wait. . . what, again, is the reasoning behind thinking pirates won't jump on any bandwagons? I think I remember NAF making that baffling assertion on Day 3 or 4-- did you find that convincing?
(An interesting argument for you to eagerly accept, in that you have been on EVERY bandwagon. . .)
I mean, neat numbers and cross referencing, Hockey, but can you explain why this MEANS anything, or are you leaving that to someone else?
If this relates to Zuma's references to me (and you're hunting for some way to give a logical appearance of factiness to a followthrough on that with more than a fuzzy hunch) just say so.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 13, 2007 23:17:27 GMT -5
Of course, however dear helpful Gaderene, that assumes that the pirates have had a special colloquium on posting-frequency, and aren't just incidentally posting the way they naturally would and following their individual blisses (which might be randomly distributed on its own, though). Do we have evidence from previous games, oh veterans, that pirates take this into account? Is it indeed a pattern? (Asking because I honestly don't know) And now we've identified the low-middle poster-pirate already, if this does hold. . . The only real pattern that has emerged is that power roles tend to post less, especially if they are new to the game. Also Gad, are those TOTAL post counts including test posts and happy birthday Mal posts, or are those the posts counts from just the day threads. If it is total post counts, I have a feeling the groups will shift if we look only at Day thread posts.
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Post by Lakai on Jun 13, 2007 23:33:05 GMT -5
Blaster Master:This is where the *headsmack* smiley from the SDMB would come in real useful. You're absolutely right, and I'm annoyed I missed that. Thanks. Are you trying to find pirates or targets? Because if you are after pirates, then eliminating the confirmed is the right logical step. Blaster Master, why should we worry about what scum will take into account here? How does that help us catch pirates?
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Post by capybara on Jun 13, 2007 23:40:34 GMT -5
Ok, this may be an instinct informed by my Guinness and cider consumption this evening, but. . .
If we're looking for stats to pick out pirates, won't eliminating confirmed crew (and pirates) from the tables confound would-be patterns? Or manifest possibly false patterns? "Oh look, only one poster has X and Z trends! Must be a pirate!" (discounting the three confirmed crew who also fit that pattern. . .) I mean, note them as confirmed, obviously, but don't remove those data points! Confirmation is information.
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Post by Parzival on Jun 14, 2007 0:00:28 GMT -5
Interesting that the Officers spread themselves out evenly (intentionally or no).
I think if they're trying to hide, the scum are going to split themselves across the groups, but also along voting lines. It seems to me they're as likely to be high-bandwagonning as often as mid or low-bandwagonning.
What hasn't been done so far (and even then I'm not sure if we have enough to glean something useful from it) is an analysis of the changes in activity by posters. It would probably be a lot more useful if we'd killed a Pirate earlier. It may come in handy later. I'd love to do it but I'm away from my computer that had the database, so I'd have to work up the info again (one of the slight problems with that analysis - people can have different Days depending on real life activity. I myself am having a kind of tough Day; I may well be without a computer on Friday).
On to other analysis:
I'm somewhat inclined to think that Autolycus was more likely to poke crew than Pirates. Since he didn't seem to be jumping on people all that much, I think he was often throwing some mud to see if any would stick. I suspect he was trying to do this to zuma. But I wouldn't put it past him to toss one (but no more than one) Pirate in the mix.
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 14, 2007 2:30:55 GMT -5
Blaster Master:This is where the *headsmack* smiley from the SDMB would come in real useful. You're absolutely right, and I'm annoyed I missed that. Thanks. Are you trying to find pirates or targets? Because if you are after pirates, then eliminating the confirmed is the right logical step. Blaster Master, why should we worry about what scum will take into account here? How does that help us catch pirates? I think capybara answered hit it well, so this'll be brief. Essentially, going back to my true-random vs. psuedo-random theory, I think if pirates are going to be trying to fit into specific patterns, it will be over the entire population, not over some specific subset. That is, if they ARE trying to spread out over post count, then it will be over EVERYONE'S post counts, not only unconfirmed town. The last thing they'd want is to be in a quantifiable group alone with mostly or all confirmed town, because it would make them easy to spot. In our case, the officers clearly have spread themselves out, but obviously, they're only being included to help us detect any patterns, not so I can go "hey, the only one left in this group is a confirmed officer... he must be lying." If that's the case, then it's either an anomaly, or I was wrong.
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 14, 2007 5:59:02 GMT -5
I think you all are putting to much effort into this post-count line of thought.
Different players have different play styles (including posting frequency, aggressiveness, analyticity, emotion). Given that the roles were distributed randomly, styles will be distributed randomly as well. And what does that tell us? Nothing really, except that there'll be no correlation between style and role.
I don't believe players make large changes to their styles based on their role. Instead the role will be filtered through the style, rather than style adapted to the role.
I'd rather see cases based on votes and post content.
For now, I'll
++Vote MadTheSwine++
For voting for zuma before we had go reason to. Auto did the same thing; I think they were trying to sway the votes. Two Pirates jumping on board seems risky, but there can be safety in risk--who'd think Pirates would do that?
I don't have a strong conviction in this vote (which might be good thing considering my voting record), but I think Mad needs a closer look.
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Post by tirial on Jun 14, 2007 8:24:43 GMT -5
I honestly don't know at this point.
I'm not sure about Capybara. The main strike against her is zuma's consistant references to her being town, which could be an attempt to deflect suspicion away from her. However he'd have to know that when he was revealed, it would make her look suspicious, and as he seemed to be playing to get lynched that was a matter of when, not if. Would Sneaky Sam deliberately put a pirate in the line of suspicion?
Quote zuma: "Finally, I have a feeling capy and I are pretty sure each other are town based on our mutual defense of each other."
I get the feeling that zuma was trying to use Capy as cover if she got lynched, by saying that he defended her. Personally I think she's probably town, but I'm not sure.
NAF still looks a bit odd to me - he did go after Idle Thoughts yesterday, who we now know to be crew, but then zuma made his false accusation, so there wasn't really any chance to debate what NAF said and find out if he had any real grounds for it.
Autolychus and Mad the Swine both voted early for zuma, before the markings debate blew up, but would two pirates take the risk of voting together? If they did, why? Probably not to save Idle Thoughts since he wasn't a pirate, but possibly to go after zuma if they thought he was Steele.
With regard to hockeymonkey, Lakai, Panamajack and the other non-confirmed-officer posters, I have no real feel on them at all.
I suppose my top suspects would be NAF (because I'm already suspicious of him and the early anti-Idle posts), Lakai (for limited posts and info) and possibly MadTheSwine for the early vote against zuma yesterday. However, I don't have enough of a case to want to cast a vote against any of them yet.
-- And on a side note ArizonaTeach, what is this thing you've got for Idle? D5 P50 "I'm not wearing pants?", and a request to see him naked the day before? I am getting worried about our officers...hope there isn't a cabin boy role.
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 14, 2007 8:40:18 GMT -5
And on a side note ArizonaTeach, what is this thing you've got for Idle? D5 P50 "I'm not wearing pants?", and a request to see him naked the day before? I am getting worried about our officers...hope there isn't a cabin boy role. No, the backstory established that poor Jim Hawkins was found dead before the game began. ;D
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 14, 2007 8:45:03 GMT -5
And on a side note ArizonaTeach, what is this thing you've got for Idle? D5 P50 "I'm not wearing pants?", and a request to see him naked the day before? I am getting worried about our officers...hope there isn't a cabin boy role. FTR, that was Autolycus who said "I'm not wearing pants" in response to Idle Thoughts saying "There's four words ["I told you so"] I'd like to say buy I won't."
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 14, 2007 8:54:20 GMT -5
I think you all are putting to much effort into this post-count line of thought. Different players have different play styles (including posting frequency, aggressiveness, analyticity, emotion). Given that the roles were distributed randomly, styles will be distributed randomly as well. And what does that tell us? Nothing really, except that there'll be no correlation between style and role. I don't believe players make large changes to their styles based on their role. Instead the role will be filtered through the style, rather than style adapted to the role. I'd rather see cases based on votes and post content. For now, I'll ++Vote MadTheSwine++For voting for zuma before we had go reason to. Auto did the same thing; I think they were trying to sway the votes. Two Pirates jumping on board seems risky, but there can be safety in risk--who'd think Pirates would do that? I don't have a strong conviction in this vote (which might be good thing considering my voting record), but I think Mad needs a closer look. My guess as to why Autolycus voted against Idle was because he knew he was town, figured it was pretty much a done deal, and then the next day he'd look REALLY good when we lynched Zuma, whom he had to think was either Dick or Sam. The real question is... would two pirates do it? I fully understand and and agree with your reasoning; however, at this point, as I alluded to earlier, I wouldn't want to see us lynch MtS, simply because if he is Steele, I don't want to force him to claim, and if he's a pirate... guess what he'll claim? The only time he wouldn't claim is if he's vanilla crew, but then knowing that the pirate might claim that instead and... What in the world is that!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 14, 2007 9:21:46 GMT -5
And, wait. . . what, again, is the reasoning behind thinking pirates won't jump on any bandwagons? I think I remember NAF making that baffling assertion on Day 3 or 4-- did you find that convincing? (An interesting argument for you to eagerly accept, in that you have been on EVERY bandwagon. . .) I mean, neat numbers and cross referencing, Hockey, but can you explain why this MEANS anything, or are you leaving that to someone else? If this relates to Zuma's references to me (and you're hunting for some way to give a logical appearance of factiness to a followthrough on that with more than a fuzzy hunch) just say so. Right now, I'm trying to get as much information and analysis out there as possible. I want other people to be involved in the analysis. I haven't drawn any conclusions yet. If you will recall from my Bandwagon pattern post on page 1 Day four, I said I found it highly unlikely a Pirate would have participated in all 3 of the lynchings, and knowing that I'm not a Pirate, I don't mind being in the same group as ArizonaTeach with that. I said I thought the best place to find the scum would be in the Zero or One Bandwagon group, and that there was probably 1 in the Two Bandwagon category. I never said that Pirates don't ever get on a bandwagon. And no, I don't think it's a fuzzy hunch. I have perfectly valid reasons to bring attention to you. zuma's constant defense is one of those, and I am not willing to discount it just because you say he was trying to get some scum on you. Being in on zero lynches (except zuma's which we were all a part of) is another reason. To answer your question, what it means is that I will now be doing a heavy analysis of all of your posts. Don't worry little one, you aren't the only one I have my eye on. I have suspicions of Lakai that I am carrying over from yesterDay as well.
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Post by capybara on Jun 14, 2007 9:41:21 GMT -5
I'm really liking BlasterMaster's "random versus pseudo-random" concept, by the way. I suspect that with things like votes and bandwagon-membership that the pattern among the pirates might look MORE random that the pattern of the crew-- "real" random sometimes doesn't LOOK random (let's call it the Rozenkranz and Guildenstern Effect).
(Hence for protective coloration a pirate might certainly well be in the 'every single bandwagon' camp, especially as some have stated that a pirate would NEVER be there, and knowing that the statisticians will cross out the overly obvious candidates and the posters way out in left field).
I suspect, though, that there's also a possibility that pirates might not be quite so organized in day-play with specific goals on the agenda each Day and that to some degree each is doing his or her own thing. Perhaps they've seen that pseudo-random or statistical distribution in other games was picked up on and are now trying for free-for-all during the day. In that case posting and patterns for each pirate player might look as crazy and all over the map as the crew, depending on natural tendencies and native intelligence-- just like the rest of the crew.
Also. . . on the Auto and Mad votes for Zuma thread. . . now, he wasn't a pirate so they wouldn't have known his role for certain, or Idle's. What would be the possibilities for the hypothetical Mad-the-Pirate's motives for voting that way? Suspicion that Zuma was some power role or another, I imagine, but it would have to be that he thought he was Steele (or Ben?) (why would pirates want Dick dead?). . . so voting for him overtly "because I think he's lying" is IN FACT covertly "voting for him because I'm a pirate and I think he's actually telling the truth"?
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 14, 2007 9:51:45 GMT -5
And, wait. . . what, again, is the reasoning behind thinking pirates won't jump on any bandwagons? I think I remember NAF making that baffling assertion on Day 3 or 4-- did you find that convincing? (An interesting argument for you to eagerly accept, in that you have been on EVERY bandwagon. . .) My thought was that, early on, scum typically try to avoid the conflict zones and fly under the radar. This means not drawing attention to themselves by not really being on bandwagons much, and not posting a whole lot, but also not actively avoiding bandwagons and not lurking. This far into the game I think things are a bit different, but in the first day or two my feeling was that scum will let the townies bandwagon on each other. The further into the game we get the more I think that scum will be on bandwagons. Also, was that parenthetical directed at me capy? I have not been on every bandwagon.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 14, 2007 10:00:14 GMT -5
I suppose my top suspects would be NAF I am ok with you being suspicious of me tirial, but would you mind writing my name correctly? It's 3 capital letters. Initials, not a word. (you aren't the only one who does this, but you are the most recent one and it is starting to bug me) Thanks much!
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 14, 2007 10:05:01 GMT -5
capybara:
Nice! ;D
Ninety-two coins spun consecutively have come down heads ninety-two consecutive times.
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Post by capybara on Jun 14, 2007 10:17:18 GMT -5
Also, was that parenthetical directed at me capy? I have not been on every bandwagon. Nah, NAF, that post was primarily an answer to HockeyMonkey-- your inclusion was incidental.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 14, 2007 10:22:38 GMT -5
Thanks for getting my name right! ;D
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Post by capybara on Jun 14, 2007 10:39:38 GMT -5
capybara:Nice! ;D Ninety-two coins spun consecutively have come down heads ninety-two consecutive times. I'm so glad someone appreciated that. I see now that Pleonast has also opined that pirates might not be sticking to a statistical game plan and are instead letting their freak-flags fly.
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 14, 2007 11:24:35 GMT -5
I don't think an analysis of Auto's posts will yield too much information. As far as I can tell, he pretty much followed the line he had set during M2, and he didn't post enough to give much additional information.
Concerning zuma's "endorsement" of capybara, my guess would be it was an attempt at creating FOS's in her direction (and thus aiding pirates). After all, the pirates already know her alignment and any hints in that direction would only be interpreted by crew, one way or another.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 14, 2007 11:44:37 GMT -5
So, I made an interesting little spreadsheet on my break at work just now. Showing the number of times each of the living players has posted to the Day threads, breaking it down by day. Don't know how helpful it is. But I am hoping we might be able to do a "one of these things is not like the other" type of analysis using HM's list and the post counts. My thinking is, no matter what the scum try to do, no matter how hard they try to hide tells, they will eventually start showing the tells. One of these tells seems to be in the post count. The spreadsheet won't import correctly to the thread so I am going to link to a google doc. here is the link spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p-DrEP8rbTyGBEXj7wPFlAA
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 14, 2007 11:45:27 GMT -5
I see now that Pleonast has also opined that pirates might not be sticking to a statistical game plan and are instead letting their freak-flags fly. Freak-flags. Autolycus. ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Post by capybara on Jun 14, 2007 11:50:08 GMT -5
Freak-flags. Autolycus. ;D ;D ;D ;D Exactly, heh. Tell me the pirates suggested THAT kind of behavior to blend in. That boy was a free agent.
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 14, 2007 12:20:52 GMT -5
So, I made an interesting little spreadsheet on my break at work just now. Showing the number of times each of the living players has posted to the Day threads, breaking it down by day. Don't know how helpful it is. But I am hoping we might be able to do a "one of these things is not like the other" type of analysis using HM's list and the post counts. My thinking is, no matter what the scum try to do, no matter how hard they try to hide tells, they will eventually start showing the tells. One of these tells seems to be in the post count. The spreadsheet won't import correctly to the thread so I am going to link to a google doc. here is the link spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p-DrEP8rbTyGBEXj7wPFlAAThat would make the breakdown of actual game posts (through Day 4) look more like this: High/Med High Gadarene (201) capybara (182) ArizonaTeach (148) NAF1138 (138) HockeyMonkey (103) Blaster Master (91) Med/Med Low FCOD (68) MadTheSwine (64) DiggitCamara (53) panamajack (49) cowgirl (45) Pleonast (40) Low Hal Briston (30) Tirial (27) Lakai (25)
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Post by Lakai on Jun 14, 2007 14:21:48 GMT -5
My guess as to why Autolycus voted against Idle was because he knew he was town, figured it was pretty much a done deal, and then the next day he'd look REALLY good when we lynched Zuma, whom he had to think was either Dick or Sam. The real question is... would two pirates do it? I fully understand and and agree with your reasoning; however, at this point, as I alluded to earlier, I wouldn't want to see us lynch MtS, simply because if he is Steele, I don't want to force him to claim, and if he's a pirate... guess what he'll claim? The only time he wouldn't claim is if he's vanilla crew, but then knowing that the pirate might claim that instead and... What in the world is that! Lets not worry about false claims. They are almost guaranteed to happen unless Steele dies first. On day 4 the pirates stared out thinking that Zuma was Steele, right? That would explain Auto's first vote for him. The next person to vote for Zuma was MTS. Vote MadTheSwine.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 14, 2007 14:33:17 GMT -5
Except Auto expressed his conviction on Day Three that zuma wasn't Steele, didn't he?
Also, could someone explain to me the case against MadTheSwine? It seems like Blaster's right that there's at least a decent chance that MtS could be Steele himself. If that's even a colorable possibility, why are people seemingly rushing to lynch him?
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