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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 19:41:13 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 19, 2007 19:41:13 GMT -5
So, unless something crazy happens it doesn't look like I am going to change my vote. And since no one else has posted for a while...I am going to go back to being self centered.
BM you mind telling me why I was at the top of your scum list? You said (paraphrasing) that you were disappointed yesterday because I was a leading contender in your mind, but I wasn't there to defend myself so you didn't want to go after me.
'Sup?
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 21:26:57 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 19, 2007 21:26:57 GMT -5
I did it because I thought you were a pirate.Mebbe 70-30 scum/town. You seemed to be the only one, on numerous occasions, to openly discuss pro-town roles. Once you assumed I was Steele I figured ya had done your homework on me and woulda certainly picked up on the Hal breadcrumbs,yet you never mentioned Hal in a bad way on Day5.That was my reasoning. If my reason was wrong there was still a chance you woulda been attacked at night,so I thought ya was a good choice. You weren't,since ya slept all night and wasted my time.Try ta get yourself killed or sumpin next time. In fairness, you've got compelling points there. However, prior to your claim, I was actually losing confidence that you were a likely Steele candidate and I had, in fact, not "done my homework" on you... I'll explain why. I think I've made my reasoning clear (whether it is well accepted or not) on why I've decided that open discussion of potential power roles is acceptable. I also figured it was a reasonable risk to pit 50-50 between you and Autolycus for Hal to attack and that if you were targetted we'd at worst get the "signs of struggle" clue or a no-kill, and at best get a pirate (which we did). This aint adding up here. You say it was a 50/50 chance for Hal to attack one of us,me or Auto.What I am not understanding is why you don't think the pirates could have attacked one of us as well. Is it because you are a pirate?...and you knew full well the pirates werent gonna attack Auto?But then I don't understand why the pirates killed Idle that night... Idle certainly woulda claimed Steele that Day had he been me...or mebbe you were just looking for an easy kill knowing I or the Doc would not protect him. I haven't really looked back at your earlier posts(somebody with more ambition wanna look?),but for now i will vote Blaster Master
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 23:40:10 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 19, 2007 23:40:10 GMT -5
This aint adding up here. You say it was a 50/50 chance for Hal to attack one of us,me or Auto.What I am not understanding is why you don't think the pirates could have attacked one of us as well. Is it because you are a pirate?...and you knew full well the pirates werent gonna attack Auto?But then I don't understand why the pirates killed Idle that night... Idle certainly woulda claimed Steele that Day had he been me...or mebbe you were just looking for an easy kill knowing I or the Doc would not protect him. I haven't really looked back at your earlier posts(somebody with more ambition wanna look?),but for now i will vote Blaster MasterHonestly, I'm not understanding what isn't adding up for you. There are two strong hunches I ran on, and fortunately, both of them turned out to be true. One of those was that neither of you was the doctor, because I was reasonably certain that FCOD was the doctor. Second was that only two types of people (other than the doctor) would have known Zuma was lying, a pirate and Steele. Thus, since there's only one Steele, at least one of the two of you had to be a pirate (and I was leaning toward Autolycus, because you were much more veiled about it). Based on that, it was a gambit to try to try to get Dick to target one of you. Also like I said yesterday, I figured that if he picked the one of you that was Steele, the worst that would happen is a person with marks, and we catch Dick, better would be a blocked kill, and even better would be he killed a pirate. You see, like I've been saying, if I can figure out someone's role with no additional information, then I have to figure that the pirates can too, since they're just as smart, there's more of them, and they have more information. Thus, especially since they would know that one which one of you was Steele, if either, based on the knowledge of which one was a pirate, I figured they knew EXACTLY who you were. How did I know the pirates wouldn't target you? Simple. Obviously, if both of you were pirates, neither of you would be targetted, but if one of you was Steele, they couldn't have risked killing you figuring that you would either self-protect, and they'd waste their kill because you'd been somewhat exposed, or you'd witness yourself and expose one of them. Further, upon your death, it would be a easy deduction to figure out that Autolycus was the pirate like, as I said, at least one of you had to be, and if you turned up Steele, he would be as good as dead. Thus, they would face a high probability of either a no-kill or a 2-for-1 on you. Further, since they probably had equally likely reasons to believe Idle was Steele, he had a fair amount of trusted towniness (despite what people say), and his death wouldn't inadvertantly expose Autolycus, he was a more logical target... the only other probable target I could have seen would have been AZT (I doubted Pleonast, only because, while he is an officer, hasn't posted nearly the amount of analysis, and they had to figure FCOD was self-protecting). Either way, if/when you do look back at my past posts, I'm confident you'll find my logic and reasoning consistent
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 19, 2007 23:48:14 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 19, 2007 23:48:14 GMT -5
So, unless something crazy happens it doesn't look like I am going to change my vote. And since no one else has posted for a while...I am going to go back to being self centered. BM you mind telling me why I was at the top of your scum list? You said (paraphrasing) that you were disappointed yesterday because I was a leading contender in your mind, but I wasn't there to defend myself so you didn't want to go after me. 'Sup? Well, I've had some nagging suspicion about you, but it isn't anything I could really substantiate in a way to make it pursuable. Mostly, I was interested in following what appeared to be the general feel of the town to see if there really was anything there worth pursuing, or if it was just a fool's errand. I think there are some legitimate points of concern, specifically related to the death of Idle (is it possible his death was meant to exonerate or frame you?). I'm obviously more suspicious of Lakai and panamajack. And after spending some time reviewing the voting records, yours just didn't seem as bad as it seemed to have been made out to be. So, for now, I think it's in the town's best interest to put that on the back burner, pursue more solid leads, and see what other evidence related to you comes to light. That all said, I remain convinced that one between you, Gadarene, and capybara are scum; and I think if Lakai is lynched today, it will go a long way in determining which of you is, because I think I noticed some interesting patterns that may look bad, especially depending how you three vote today, if he swings.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 1:13:32 GMT -5
Post by Lakai on Jun 20, 2007 1:13:32 GMT -5
He votes for Hockey Monkey on Days One and Two. But on Day Three, when she actually stands a good chance of dying (at least as much as on Day Two), he changes his tune and votes for Hal Briston. On Day Five, he has a chance to vote for Hal when he actually has a chance to hang, but instead votes for MTS. Interestingly, he was also dead last to vote for Zuma on Day Four. What I glean from that is that he's voting in for people that are close to being lynched, so he looks in the thick of things, but he's afraid to be on a final lynch wagon (note, he's only been on one, Zuma's). If he was suspicious enough to vote for HM for two days, when she actually had the chance to hang, why didn't he put his money where his mouth was? Same with his interesting choice of Hal; if he was suspicious enough to vote for him instead of the person he'd been voting for for two days, when there's a testable claim that says he's likely scum, why didn't you buy it? I switched my vote from HM because Auto voted for her to tie up the race and I found out Auto was a pirate. I switched my vote from Hal to MTS because MTS voted for Zuma, so MTS became more suspicious. Really? You can’t think of any other explanation possible? That seems like you are really reaching here. It doesn’t hurt to be cautious once in a while you know? No offence to MTS, but I thought Steele would be smart enough and not vote for Zuma. When a scum makes a false claim, everyone that is too suspicious of that claim is immediately targeted. Look what happened to Ogre in M1. MTS was even the one to fake claim being a guardian angel in that game. Then his gang of wolfs killed Ogre for being too diligent in not believing MTS. I concluded that it had to be scum that would vote for Zuma, thinking he was actually Steele. Misinformation? We now know Storyteller was attacked by pirates. So even if I was a pirate, I would still be telling the truth. What purpose can you construe for that? I can’t help that the pirates did not attack the “masons”. Zuma was caught lying. That made it an easy decision. I’m not going to defend my delay of game plan. I understand now that it wasn’t too good. I stated my reasons for suggesting it yesterDay. Gadarene made a list of post counts from which we (crew) were supposed to choose scum from. I thought (wrong as it turned out) that it didn’t make sense to put confirmed up there, regardless if scum took them into account or not. It did not seem relevant to think about how the scum think about confirmed roles in that situation. What if someone posted a regular list, (not the type Gadarene posted) from which we are to pick who to vote for. Should we include confirmed people in that list simply because scum is going to be taking them into account? This whole post seemed like you just twisted my words and actions to fit your theory. Every action of mine seems to be pointing to the fact that I’m scum. The whole post lacks caution. Now where in your post do you say that the facts could point to me being town. They all lead to either bad strategy or scum for you. Not knowing if I’m town or not will make it hard for people to see through this post, but if I end up dead by night time I hope the crew will soon come after you. Though while you are scummy too me, what is even more scummy is: WIth three days left, I'm not going to throw down a vote just yet, but Lakai still reeks to me. As Dick it would make sense to vote for me because you think I’m town. Now your role changed but your opinion hasn’t. I can only conclude that you reincarnated on the same side of the fence. Vote Sir blah.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 2:37:43 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 2:37:43 GMT -5
I switched my vote from HM because Auto voted for her to tie up the race and I found out Auto was a pirate. I switched my vote from Hal to MTS because MTS voted for Zuma, so MTS became more suspicious. Huh!? You found out Auto was a pirate? How did you find this out on day three? If you found this out, why didn't you vote for him? What was so suspicious about MTS voting for Zuma? I agree it looked strange, but it didn't occur to you that one or both between Autolycus and MTS just MIGHT have other information? So instead of definitely getting a pirate between A or B, you decide that MTS is MORE suspicious for voting with Idle? Fair enough on the play of MTS. However, the same could be said for Autolycus and he wasn't Steele. But why would scum be the only one's capable of what you'd consider to be a bad move? Remember what killed us in M2... assuming the scum were stupid. IOW, it was precisely this kind of bad logic that you should know better than after that experience. Either way, the point is, it was clear, after the fact, that Autolycus and MTS had extra information, and that doesn't necessarily mean pirate, especially in the case of a fake role claim. Thus, while you correctly concluded that a vote for Zuma was likely scum (in Auto's case), you incorrectly neglected the possibility that either could be (and one in fact WAS) Steele. Even worse, you completely neglected the bird in the hand. Here's the real contradiction... you wanted to put off lynching one between Idle and Zuma because we didn't have to do that on that Day, yet, you take the immediate logical leap, assuming the conclusion of that, and using it to put the noose around the neck of another. So I'm wondering, if you're already so willing to accept that Zuma was Steele, why were you on one hand not so willing to lynch Idle, but still willing to lynch MTS? If I was able to deduce that either Auto or MTS was Steele, then a pirate, knowing Auto was also a pirate and that MTS wasn't, would have known MTS had to be Steele. Thus, the only conclusion is you must have been privy to that information as well and, by process of elimination, must be a pirate. Wrong again. Storyteller was attacked by Hal, who was definitely not a pirate, which was the cause of Hal's downfall. Were you even paying attention yesterday? There's plenty to be gained by mis-information. First, you can see how people react, knowing that the only non-pirate (other than possibly Steele) who would know you were incorrect is Dick, you might be able to get a read on who he is so you don't target him. Or when you get lynched, you leave behind what looks like "inside knowledge" of the pirates. Either way, the main point wasn't that you said it was Storyteller; the main point was that it was against the general concensus of the town, and it was unjustified. Again, it's not so much the delay of action, but the contradiction. Earlier in the day, you were reluctant to vote for either Idle or Zuma, and immediately made a logical leap in using that to accuse MTS. It wasn't until long after it was a completely lost cause and EVERYONE in the town was already on the wagon that you changed your tune. Then on the next day, facing another potentially dubious role claim, you have no problem jumping right on the claimer this time. Quite a change in strategy, no? The idea was to attempt to spot patterns in post count. Obviously, when looking at post counts, if the scum are taking that into consideration at all, they're going to take into consideration EVERYONE'S post count, not just those of the unconfirmed, when attempting to manipulate the patterns. Thus, we need to have the confirmed's names listed to see the patterns, not because eitherof us felt any of them should be accused. Further, a regular list does not work, because post counts are hard data like vote counts, not something subjective like smudges. Thus, it only makes sense to also consider the found scum and known crew, thus we may be able to establish a basis by which to judge scum patterns versus crew. It's certainly FAR from a perfect system, but when looking for patterns in data, we absolutely must include it all precisely because the scum are too. I'm suspicious of you, so I'm laying out a case. It's YOUR job to point out facts that make you look like town, which you failed to do. Further, I'm failing to understand the criticism of lacking "caution". I'm a vanilla crewman, thus in the grand scheme of the game, my life means only as much as my analysis. I believe I've already made it abudantly clear, that I fully intend to play this role with very little caution. I imagine if you do get lynched today and show up crew, that they'll come after me. I'm willing to accept that risk because I'm confident that you're a pirate. AGAIN with the spurious logic. I'm still undecided on Cookies/tirial/Blah, but is it possible that Hal voted for you while fairly unsure of your alignment because he was, God forbid, trying NOT to look like scum? If you think I'm scum, I'd appreciate the same courtesy of making a case so that I can defend myself on those points and allow other crewmen to decide based on the evidence rather than a random passive smudging.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 7:12:16 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 20, 2007 7:12:16 GMT -5
This aint adding up here. You say it was a 50/50 chance for Hal to attack one of us,me or Auto.What I am not understanding is why you don't think the pirates could have attacked one of us as well. Second was that only two types of people (other than the doctor) would have known Zuma was lying, a pirate and Steele. Thus, since there's only one Steele, at least one of the two of you had to be a pirate (and I was leaning toward Autolycus, because you were much more veiled about it). Unless the Doctor had protected zuma, only one person would know that his claim was false,correct? That would be Mad The Steele. How would the pirates know he was lying? [griping about my name] Since others have requested a name they wish to be called, NAF and whoever it was complaining about constantly being called a girl...I prefer Mad,Swine,or even Piggy...MtS makes me feel like a time zone ..thanks[griping about my name]
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 9:27:40 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 9:27:40 GMT -5
Unless the Doctor had protected zuma, only one person would know that his claim was false,correct? That would be Mad The Steele. How would the pirates know he was lying? [griping about my name] Since others have requested a name they wish to be called, NAF and whoever it was complaining about constantly being called a girl...I prefer Mad,Swine,or even Piggy...MtS makes me feel like a time zone ..thanks[griping about my name] You have to remember that the pirates knew who they had sent to attack Zuma; thus, when Zuma claimed to have witnessed and claimed that Idle was the attacker, it was a deliberate red flag on his part to the pirates to say "Hey, I'm lying, I'm actually pro-pirate. Please don't attack me again!" Zuma even said as much in his last words. The rest of the crew did not know at the time of Autolycus's and your vote that Zuma was lying. However, when it became apparent to everyone that he was, then at worst Idle had a 1 / (n - 1) chance of being the attacker if he was chosen at random. Since Zuma obviously picked Idle thinking he was a likely Steele candidate, it was probably much smaller. This means that the probability that the pirate who actually attacked Zuma was someone other than Idle was at least (n-2) / (n-1), and likely much higher. Thus, considering that there were 18 people (IIRC) on that Day, the probability that Idle was the culprit was less than 6% (being as generous as possible), the possibility that a pirate had intimate knowledge that Zuma was lying is highly probable. Combine that with the fact that no regular citizen had any reason not to vote for Idle, at if a pirate DIDN'T have information, then there should have been at most one person who would vote for Zuma, then the probability that at least one between the two of you being a pirate approaches 1.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 9:33:36 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 20, 2007 9:33:36 GMT -5
AGAIN with the spurious logic. I'm still undecided on Cookies/tirial/Blah, but is it possible that Hal voted for you while fairly unsure of your alignment because he was, God forbid, trying NOT to look like scum? Spurious only begins to cover it. Since Lakai seems so set on pursuing the wrong path, I'll see if I can have this make sense. First off, Lakai, using anything from my previous incarnation is simply bad form. Remember, I'm not replacing Hal, I'm replacing tirial. I'm trying as hard as possible to separate the two roles, and would appreciate the same. However, I'll put in one last bit about how Hal played the role of Dick before we leave his corpse at the bottom of the sea. It's was simple, really -- "Daytime crew, nighttime scum". During the day, actively go after those Hal thought were scum. Perhaps not enough to get them lynched, but enough to make him seem like a trusted crew member for when he got in the three kills and became actual scum. However, the suspicions laid out during the day were for real. Hal thought MtS was scum for awhile, and always thought you were. Now Hal is gone and I'm in the game. I still think you're scum...the only difference is, this time around I actually do want to see scum lynched. Vote Lakai.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 9:35:23 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 20, 2007 9:35:23 GMT -5
[griping about my name] Since others have requested a name they wish to be called, NAF and whoever it was complaining about constantly being called a girl...I prefer Mad,Swine,or even Piggy...MtS makes me feel like a time zone ..thanks[griping about my name] Whoop...sorry about that. Mad it is...
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 9:59:01 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jun 20, 2007 9:59:01 GMT -5
FTR, Mal confirmed that Hal didn't make three kills in Post 6.31. [METAGAME]Besides, if you HAD, the game would be broken by letting you in because you'd have perfect knowledge if you were resurrected as crew[/METAGAME] Indeedy. You can more or less trust me not to ask an eliminated player to sub in again unless I'm happy that he doesn't have game-breaking knowledge. From that PoV a "failed" Dick was ideal (besides, he now at least has a chance to finish on the winning side, which he didn't in his first incarnation). Vote counts aren't exactly critical just now, but here we go: Lakai 3 (BlasterMaster, NAF1138, Sir Blah) BlasterMaster 1 (Mad the Swine) Sir Blah 1 (Lakai) hockeymonkey 0 (FlyingCowOfDoom)
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 10:10:00 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 20, 2007 10:10:00 GMT -5
[griping about my name] Since others have requested a name they wish to be called, NAF and whoever it was complaining about constantly being called a girl...I prefer Mad,Swine,or even Piggy...MtS makes me feel like a time zone ..thanks[griping about my name] I totally get how you feel. So I will call you piggy or possibly Mr. Pig (which I think is a hilarious and awesome name) until I get tired of typing that many letters, at which point you will probably just be mad.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 10:21:30 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 20, 2007 10:21:30 GMT -5
That all said, I remain convinced that one between you, Gadarene, and capybara are scum; and I think if Lakai is lynched today, it will go a long way in determining which of you is, because I think I noticed some interesting patterns that may look bad, especially depending how you three vote today, if he swings. Ok, good to know. I don't really get the suspicion of capy at this point. (Although where is she toDay? I just looked at the post count and she isn't even close to the lead. Strange for her.) And I really want you to talk about your theory, but will refrain from asking, because there is no way putting that info out there can be good at this point. I can wait. I would like to hear more about your suspicion of Gad though. He started pinging me hard yesterday just before I left town, but the feeling was slippery. I couldn't place my finger on any one thing (which in itself might be a good indicator) And he has too many posts for me to want to go back through them one by one. What do you think?
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 10:59:39 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 20, 2007 10:59:39 GMT -5
Ok, good to know. I don't really get the suspicion of capy at this point. (Although where is she toDay? I just looked at the post count and she isn't even close to the lead. Strange for her.) Sorry, not to be tacky and invoke IRL [RL]but I'm trying to deal with career drama, and haven't had as much time (but have been able to follow enough that I feel like posting in the absent thread is too much)-- I have set up a filter on my browser so that during the middle hours of the day I'm redirected to the hypnotoad, hah-- so I'm aware that my posting habits will appear to have changed [/RL] I guess my problem is that I'm suspicious of a couple of people and one I'm a little uncertain on (Lakai) and the other will take quite a bit of looking and review to put my finger on why he bugs me (Blaster) and I don't want to jump into the fray without enough time to make a good case. I feel very conflicted about both HM and CG lately but not enough to start rounding up torches and pitchforks. I'm also feeling a bit unmoored as many of whom I'd been suspicious of turned out to be confirmed crew and officers, so I have to start considering players I haven't thought a lot about which hurts my little brain. I intend to take some time later int he day to really get my bearing again and afterwards I will again regale you with post after tedious post. And Gad I feel a little uneasy about only because I've never felt very uneasy about him-- the one player I've never suspected much, and I think that's a bad sign as I suspect he's a very good player-- I think he is my curious dog incident. I suspect I've had Jedi mind tricks played on me, but of course zero evidence, so it's just vague unease that I'm getting played. In case I can't jump in much I'm going to go ahead and hold with yesterDay's pre-Hal vote for Lakai for reasons I stated back then. I'm a bit conflicted about this, but as far as helping the crew he feels to me like an aggressive Auto who happens to post in English. Offers very little that isn't retaliation -- aside from his votes most of his posts seem to involve Lakai. He is my least of all evils vote.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:06:35 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 11:06:35 GMT -5
That all said, I remain convinced that one between you, Gadarene, and capybara are scum; and I think if Lakai is lynched today, it will go a long way in determining which of you is, because I think I noticed some interesting patterns that may look bad, especially depending how you three vote today, if he swings. Ok, good to know. I don't really get the suspicion of capy at this point. (Although where is she toDay? I just looked at the post count and she isn't even close to the lead. Strange for her.) And I really want you to talk about your theory, but will refrain from asking, because there is no way putting that info out there can be good at this point. I can wait. I would like to hear more about your suspicion of Gad though. He started pinging me hard yesterday just before I left town, but the feeling was slippery. I couldn't place my finger on any one thing (which in itself might be a good indicator) And he has too many posts for me to want to go back through them one by one. What do you think? Well, the only real reason I've grouped the three of you together is because of your high post count. Based on my whole psuedo-random hypothesis, I'd expect that one of the highest posting players is scum, that would include the three of you, and possibly players on the fringe like Hockey Monkey and myself. Considering I was never suspicious of Hockey Monkey and the voting records largely exonerate her, and that she's more at the top edge of the next tier than at the bottom of this one, I feel safe excluding her. Similarly, I know my status, so I'm obviously not going to vote for myself. The rest of you, while not nothing particularly stands out, I think it's worth investigation when my main suspects are either exhausted or exonerated. As for suspicion of Gadarene, up until a Day or two ago, I generally trusted him. Even now, I generally do, but there's a few times stuff he said twinged me. At this point, I'm more suspicious of Lakai, so it's not worth my time to investigate that, especially if Lakai either turns up crew, doesn't get lynched, or the voting pattern fails to give me the peak I'm expecting. Unfortunately, IIRC Gadarene won't be around Today, so...
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:08:01 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 20, 2007 11:08:01 GMT -5
...and I think if Lakai is lynched today, it will go a long way in determining which of you is, because I think I noticed some interesting patterns that may look bad, especially depending how you three vote today, if he swings. Assuming, of course, a lynching shows him to be crew, correct?
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:15:26 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 11:15:26 GMT -5
...and I think if Lakai is lynched today, it will go a long way in determining which of you is, because I think I noticed some interesting patterns that may look bad, especially depending how you three vote today, if he swings. Assuming, of course, a lynching shows him to be crew, correct? Well, I suspect if he's crew, it will give some of these people looking for hard evidence to lynch me a reason to put the noose around my neck. What I'm specifically refering to are some patterns I observed in the voting, and depending on whether Lakai is crew or pirate, it would indict a different potential voting block, specifically based on how those individuals react. The only reason I'm not fully disclosing what I observed is because it would make it easy for those I'm looking at to use that information to avoid future suspicion, especially depending on Lakai's alignment, because that will obviously have a substantial affect on my credibility.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:24:40 GMT -5
Post by sirblah on Jun 20, 2007 11:24:40 GMT -5
Fair enough...makes sense to me. Get ready for a new attack, though. This statement: The only reason I'm not fully disclosing what I observed is because it would make it easy for those I'm looking at to use that information to avoid future suspicion, especially depending on Lakai's alignment, because that will obviously have a substantial affect on my credibility. ...is going to bring out the calls of "only scum hold back information". Not true, of course...certainly there are times when crew need to play some suspicions or ploys close to the vest. Still, it won't stop some players from giving you a glance askance over it.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:25:46 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 20, 2007 11:25:46 GMT -5
What I'm specifically refering to are some patterns I observed in the voting, and depending on whether Lakai is crew or pirate, it would indict a different potential voting block, specifically based on how those individuals react. You do realize why this statement might look like a threaty sort of attempt at a 'chilling effect' on Lakai voting and how that might look. . . scummy, right? One possibility for what you suspect from your pattern viewing is that one of us is a leader type and some other batch of voters has been following someone's lead (which, if you're crew, you might suspect is a pirate faction, but if you're a pirate you easily could make the same claim about a bloc of crew where it's clear from patterns that someone's seen as a wise voter by someone else-- if the latter were the case perhaps you would be subtly trying to cock-block that perceived faction from voting for Lakai toDay. . .)
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:30:43 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 20, 2007 11:30:43 GMT -5
Anyone else feel like there are only about 5 of us still playing this thing?
Capy and Gad are busy, and they make up a LOT of volume, but Pleonast is not really posting (not suspicious but frustrating) and cowgirl hasn't posted at all today. Lakai and panamajack, two people with LOTS of suspicion on them have hardly posted. I periodically forget that Diggit is even playing in this game and he is a high poster right now.
People, Mal is one of the highest posters today and we are...what 72 hours into the day? Do you really want me BM, Sir Blah and Mr. Pig deciding what happens today? Because unless some new people start talking I am out of ideas. I don't think the 4 of us have all that much new to say.
In the time it took me to compose this post Sir Blah and Capy have posted a couple of interesting things in response to BM. I will use my next post to give my thoughts.
SOMEBODY ELSE PLEASE START TALKING!
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:35:32 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 20, 2007 11:35:32 GMT -5
...is going to bring out the calls of "only scum hold back information". Not true, of course...certainly there are times when crew need to play some suspicions or ploys close to the vest. Still, it won't stop some players from giving you a glance askance over it. I will be looking askance at anyone who takes that tact. It would be nothing but bad for BM to start showing his hand about this. In fact I wish he hadn't said as much as he did. But it is out there now, and we can deal with it. There isn't enough info in anything he said for the scum to really use it against him or us.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:36:01 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 20, 2007 11:36:01 GMT -5
[RL] Ok, my curriculum vitae be damned. Turning off my leechblock add-on and hopping in today.[/RL]
I must say (I do not mean this to sound condescending) it has been interesting to just watch for the last while, however, where it hadn't been Gad, AZ Teach, Hockey Monkey, Idle Thoughts, NAF and I babbling amongst ourselves with interjections added from elsewhere. A lot of posters' personalities becoming more apparent to me.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:41:44 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 11:41:44 GMT -5
Fair enough...makes sense to me. Get ready for a new attack, though. This statement: The only reason I'm not fully disclosing what I observed is because it would make it easy for those I'm looking at to use that information to avoid future suspicion, especially depending on Lakai's alignment, because that will obviously have a substantial affect on my credibility. ...is going to bring out the calls of "only scum hold back information". Not true, of course...certainly there are times when crew need to play some suspicions or ploys close to the vest. Still, it won't stop some players from giving you a glance askance over it. You're absolutely right, especially coming from me who was openly discussing who may potentially be certain power roles. However, I think the logic is clear. If I said "I expect that if Sir Blah is part of a pirate voting block, he will vote for Lakai", obviously I'm tainting my results. If people want to use that as evidence to lynch me, then fine, my defense will simply be a reference to the logic I just stated.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:43:07 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 20, 2007 11:43:07 GMT -5
I will be looking askance at anyone who takes that tact. It would be nothing but bad for BM to start showing his hand about this. In fact I wish he hadn't said as much as he did. But it is out there now, and we can deal with it. There isn't enough info in anything he said for the scum to really use it against him or us. Now, I am (as you can tell from a couple of posts ago) suspicious because he said anything at ALL. What was the purpose of announcing "I have a secret inside this envelope that involves YOU! But you don't get to know what it is, nyah. Now pick a card. . ."-- why not just hold onto that little nugget of thought until it's useful and not mung up the unfolding of potential data meanwhile, unless confounding that alleged data was the whole point? I think announcing he had a hand was a bad idea at best, and mighty scummy at worst.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:44:45 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 11:44:45 GMT -5
What I'm specifically refering to are some patterns I observed in the voting, and depending on whether Lakai is crew or pirate, it would indict a different potential voting block, specifically based on how those individuals react. You do realize why this statement might look like a threaty sort of attempt at a 'chilling effect' on Lakai voting and how that might look. . . scummy, right? One possibility for what you suspect from your pattern viewing is that one of us is a leader type and some other batch of voters has been following someone's lead (which, if you're crew, you might suspect is a pirate faction, but if you're a pirate you easily could make the same claim about a bloc of crew where it's clear from patterns that someone's seen as a wise voter by someone else-- if the latter were the case perhaps you would be subtly trying to cock-block that perceived faction from voting for Lakai toDay. . .) You're absolutely right, it could simply be a block with a leader type and a few followers, but I'm not sure, which is why I'd like to test it. Since I feel I've got enough evidence despite that to make a strong case against Lakai, I'll use the results of his alignment to make that determination.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:54:16 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 20, 2007 11:54:16 GMT -5
You do realize why this statement might look like a threaty sort of attempt at a 'chilling effect' on Lakai voting and how that might look. . . scummy, right? Except he started the big push for Lakai today. Hell, it was his post that took me off the fence. I think that since very little has changed since yesterDay, and since Lakai was going down hard and fast before Mr. Pig role claimed, that unless Lakai really gets in here and starts defending himself, it is almost a foregone conclusion that he will swing today. If BM was scum I would expect him to be pushing harder for the Lakai lynch, not trying to cool it. I really do think that, at this point in time, trying to figure out what BM's theory is, is kinda like trying to pick out the power roles. He will let us know when he is ready, and then we can decided if it has any value. But we do not need half formed theories floating out there telling the scum how to avoid the trap.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 11:57:58 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 20, 2007 11:57:58 GMT -5
I think announcing he had a hand was a bad idea at best, and mighty scummy at worst. I am just about a step behind today, aren't I? I agree it was a bad idea, but I don't follow how it is scummy. If he had shown the whole hand I might agree, but at this point it is just a bit of a bad play.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 12:06:44 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jun 20, 2007 12:06:44 GMT -5
[RL] Ok, my curriculum vitae be damned. Turning off my leechblock add-on and hopping in today.[/RL] I must say (I do not mean this to sound condescending) it has been interesting to just watch for the last while, however, where it hadn't been Gad, AZ Teach, Hockey Monkey, Idle Thoughts, NAF and I babbling amongst ourselves with interjections added from elsewhere. A lot of posters' personalities becoming more apparent to me. I'm not part of the loud obnoxious club? Have I not been loud enough? I certainly think I've been obnoxious enough. Let me take a different approach. First of all, there's no "secret". I made it clear that I think I detected potential voting blocks involving Lakai and that his status will potentially be telling. If you go back and look at Hockey Monkey's vote summary post, you should be able to detect the pattern yourself. What I'm interested in is A) If anyone else sees it without confirmation bias of what I'm looking at and B) I want to see how those indicted react. As far as announcing having a hand, you're not taking the poker analogy far enough IMO. Sometimes one needs to represent a big hand, sometimes one needs to represent a small hand, sometimes one needs to represent a bluff, etc. It all depends on my cards, what my read on my opponents cards are, what my read on his read on my cards is, what his play style is, and what my play style is. The difference here is that while in poker EVERYONE plays with the same level of incomplete information, meanwhile here, we all have different levels of information and, for some, they have no information that everyone else doesn't also share. Thus, there is no information that I have that isn't available to anyone else except for my expectations. So here's the deal, look at the voting record, and if a several people go "Hey, Blaster Master, you're completely wacked out on thinking there's a block there", I may have to re-evaluate my analysis.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 12:13:31 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jun 20, 2007 12:13:31 GMT -5
Ok, I'm catching up better and, no, I've been concentrating on this page and had forgotten that BM was leading the cavalry earlier Today. I withdraw the chilling effect charge.
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Day Six
Jun 20, 2007 12:16:37 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 20, 2007 12:16:37 GMT -5
Ok, I am not seeing it...but I didn't see anything the first time around either and knowing that I am looking at Lakai isn't really that much info to go on. Also I am relatively bad at this sort of analysis, so I am not saying you are crazy...but I am saying that I don't see what you are seeing.
Take that for what it is worth.
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