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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 17, 2008 12:24:17 GMT -5
Wait now, you didn't protect the claimed cop, who could have either given us more information or slipped up the next day and instead protected the person who's claim wasn't even necessarily pro-town...
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 17, 2008 12:40:18 GMT -5
I've explained my thought process. Because ryjae was the obvious choice, I didn't think the scum would target him because they would assume he would be protected and go for someone else. And I hoped (still hope) that there is a better powered doc-type player than me.
Sorry I let you all down. I let my admiration and respect for storyteller cloud my judgment. When he came out as a zombie maker I was pissed at myself for having fell for it.
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Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jun 17, 2008 14:15:18 GMT -5
This doesn't make sense to me. If BlaM thought FCOD was a strong power role, I can see him hounding him. Blaster Master seems like the kind of guy to take the most logical action, even if it's conspicuous or confusing. Look at his role in the Recruiting game.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 17, 2008 14:51:29 GMT -5
Stuff is all over the place. The only consistent thing I have seen is that BlaM wanted FCoD dead. I have to think that puts him in the town collumn now that we know that FCoD was town. BlaM was hounding him too hard to be scum. (disclaimer, not that he couldn't be scum, I just don't see the percentage in scum hounding a single townie every Day until his death, it just doesn't make sense to me) I disagree. It has been my experience that Blaster hounds people whether he thinks he is right or knows he is wrong. vote Blaster Considers this a pressure vote. Blaster's style is killing us. He is providing opinions only at the end of days not allowing for defenses or backup plans. He does seem scummy to me, but it is very hard to tell given his style. Other candidates. Rysto: (Yeah, I'm all over the place.) Story asked earlier in the day when Hockey claimed. Rysto answered. It seems to me that Rysto has been doing this a lot this game. Making helpful posts that don't put any focus onto him. He also seems less desperate to find scum, though that may just be that he is not going after me. I need to go back and see if the evidence matches my theory. Hockey MonkeyEveryone understand why the information I wanted had a pro-town use now? I'm a bit boggled that it seems like Hockey hoped she was wrong in her protection. StorytellerIn basically every game I have seen anyone who could create zombies won when the zombies outnumbered the town. Story thinks that we should account for the possibility that Story's role is different. This is a fair point. However, Story also wants us to assume that there is no possible chance that he does have that win condition. I will not do that. Unless evidence dictates otherwise, I fully plan on voting to lynch Story before we reach that point.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 17, 2008 15:18:36 GMT -5
This doesn't make sense to me. If BlaM thought FCOD was a strong power role, I can see him hounding him. Blaster Master seems like the kind of guy to take the most logical action, even if it's conspicuous or confusing. Look at his role in the Recruiting game. Nice snip. Like I said, I don't see the percentage in it from the scum perspective and frankly it is the only scummy thing that BlaM has done yet. I wouldn't be comfortable with a BlaM lynch toDay. I am finding HM more and more troubling and am still doing a read of Rysto (sorry this is all slow going for me. 2 games of mafia, 1 game I am modding and a game of D&D I may have bitten of a tad more than I can chew.) I think my vote will probably come down on one of them toDay. Hawk, strangely enough, has fallen off my possible scum list. For much the same reasons as BlaM, I am finding him SO freaking scummy that I can't believe he actuall is. Also, I feel more strongly that HM or Rysto are scum, and I don't see it making sense that Hawk and either of them are also scum.
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Hockey Monkey!
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 17, 2008 15:37:03 GMT -5
Stuff is all over the place. The only consistent thing I have seen is that BlaM wanted FCoD dead. I have to think that puts him in the town collumn now that we know that FCoD was town. BlaM was hounding him too hard to be scum. (disclaimer, not that he couldn't be scum, I just don't see the percentage in scum hounding a single townie every Day until his death, it just doesn't make sense to me) I disagree. It has been my experience that Blaster hounds people whether he thinks he is right or knows he is wrong. vote Blaster Considers this a pressure vote. Blaster's style is killing us. He is providing opinions only at the end of days not allowing for defenses or backup plans. He does seem scummy to me, but it is very hard to tell given his style. Other candidates. Rysto: (Yeah, I'm all over the place.) Story asked earlier in the day when Hockey claimed. Rysto answered. It seems to me that Rysto has been doing this a lot this game. Making helpful posts that don't put any focus onto him. He also seems less desperate to find scum, though that may just be that he is not going after me. I need to go back and see if the evidence matches my theory. Hockey MonkeyEveryone understand why the information I wanted had a pro-town use now? I'm a bit boggled that it seems like Hockey hoped she was wrong in her protection. StorytellerIn basically every game I have seen anyone who could create zombies won when the zombies outnumbered the town. Story thinks that we should account for the possibility that Story's role is different. This is a fair point. However, Story also wants us to assume that there is no possible chance that he does have that win condition. I will not do that. Unless evidence dictates otherwise, I fully plan on voting to lynch Story before we reach that point. Of course I wasn't trying to be wrong. I was trying to outguess the scum. I don't know why that's so hard to understand.
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Post by Rysto on Jun 17, 2008 15:44:23 GMT -5
For much the same reasons as BlaM, I am finding him SO freaking scummy that I can't believe he actuall is. I really, really disagree with this reasoning. Because what you're essentially doing here is giving the scum free reign to be ridiculously scummy and get away with it. Maybe BLaM has noticed that people are having a tendency to reason this way and is trying to exploit it? As to Hawkeyeop, I'm not finding him all that scummy but that's possibly because I'm compensating for the fact that I always think that he's scum.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 17, 2008 15:59:30 GMT -5
For much the same reasons as BlaM, I am finding him SO freaking scummy that I can't believe he actuall is. I really, really disagree with this reasoning. Because what you're essentially doing here is giving the scum free reign to be ridiculously scummy and get away with it. Maybe BLaM has noticed that people are having a tendency to reason this way and is trying to exploit it? As to Hawkeyeop, I'm not finding him all that scummy but that's possibly because I'm compensating for the fact that I always think that he's scum. Ok, again with the fruitful snip. Maybe I am not being clear. I am not saying I am positive BlaM is town. What I am saying is him pursuing FCoD so hard when FCoD WAS town was so very dangerous for scum (especially since the pursuit started on Day 1) that as the ONLY piece of evidence against BlaM I don't think it is enough to even cause an FOS. The only other piece of evidence we have is his playstyle this game, which I agree blows. But I again don't think is a great reason to lynch someone, even in combination with him driving the lynch for FCoD. Did we all drop into a black hole and forget every mafia game we have played in the past? None of what I am saying is particularly radical thinking.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 17, 2008 17:26:24 GMT -5
The problem this game is suffering from is that we haven't learned anything new from last Night's deaths. Two players - presumably not Evil Entities - are dead, and we don't know what roles they had. We have no new information to develop beyond the reasonable deduction made above.
This is crippling to the survivors. We're forced to trade numbers for information; we've just lost numbers with no information and it hurts.
One thing we talked about on Day 1 was developing a list of What We Know. That seems to have fallen by the wayside. Consequently I think a reread is called for to reseat What We Know.
Anybody with me?
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 17, 2008 17:49:41 GMT -5
The problem this game is suffering from is that we haven't learned anything new from last Night's deaths. Two players - presumably not Evil Entities - are dead, and we don't know what roles they had. We have no new information to develop beyond the reasonable deduction made above. This is crippling to the survivors. We're forced to trade numbers for information; we've just lost numbers with no information and it hurts. One thing we talked about on Day 1 was developing a list of What We Know. That seems to have fallen by the wayside. Consequently I think a reread is called for to reseat What We Know. Anybody with me? Sounds good to me. I didn't keep up with the list because we don't seem to know much. But that might not be really true. We are just getting information so slowly that it feels like nothing. I will give a total re-read a shot when I get home tonight.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 17, 2008 18:23:03 GMT -5
Apologies for my silence so far today. Unfortunately working in the finance industry the run in to 30 June gets hectic and despite me not being a prolific poster to start with, access for the next two Days (i.e two weeks real time) will be patchy. I will do my damndest to at least hold up to the 5 posts a day. I wonder if anyone is in the position to do a vote analysis on yesterday similiar to what Roosh and ?(someone else I can't recall who it was) did on Day two voting patterns. Couple of comments on what has happened today. MHaye I think a revisit to a "what we know" list would be very useful. I'm with HM on not having spotted any other possessed townie breadcrumbs besides Darth and Hal. Am I missing something here? On why Darth is still possessed, it's possible the exorcist has only a percentage chance of success, but I also seem to recall (I'll have to check when I get a chance) that Ryjae basically said that before an exorcist could do his thing the HW guy had to give him a target first. Perhaps our exorcist is sitting back completely unable to do anything about it because he doesn't have any 'official' targets handed off by HW guy, and never will because Ryjae died.
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Gir!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 17, 2008 19:30:34 GMT -5
I also have missed any Possessed Townie breadcrumbs.
Also, where's pedescribe today? Is he following Czech's pattern of post a bunch then disappear for the rest of the Day? Is there anyone who can shed any light on his claim of a post-count ceiling?
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Trepa Mayfield
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Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jun 17, 2008 19:45:31 GMT -5
Kat, it was just an idea when I looked in here and went...whoa...nobody's here. It looks like I was wrong, though.
Also this:
yeah, it's basically the only thing he's done. If someone's done one thing, and it looks scummy, and he looks too scummy, I'm happy to lynch.
Vote BlaM
Espicially since he's a replacement. I mean, if you're replacing someone who can't keep up, and you can't keep up, then something's wrong. Although in this case it might be that BlaM's gotten mafia overload.
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Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jun 17, 2008 19:46:38 GMT -5
Okay, seriously, why do the quote tags never work for me? Can someone else teach me how to do them manually? I don't want to click on the quote button, though.
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Gir!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 17, 2008 19:51:14 GMT -5
I'd like to ask Rysto exactly what context he used to reach the "possession" conclusion, The context that I underlined. The part that mentioned Hal and no one else. That implies that Darth only noticed breadcrumbs by Hal, but doesn't necessarily indicate that Darth was looking for a specific type of breadcrumb, as opposed to breadcrumbs in general. You have some good points in the rest of your post, although your claim that Darth would be such a spectacular scum player that he'd never make a mistake is hard to swallow. Even good players can misword things or say something they shouldn't. I'll note that even if Darth misworded what he meant to say, that doesn't mean that he's scum. It just means he needs to come back and clarify what he meant, which leads me to my concern about the whole thing, which is that you're coming across as very insistant that the correct and only possible interpretation is the one you've put forward, that being that Darth was looking for Possessed Townie Breadcrumbs. However, Darth already posted that he was looking for breadcrumbs from dead players. Which leads me to the question of: Why are you determined to defend Darth on this matter to the point of not reading his posts on the subject (see below)? (The whole discussion makes me wonder about you, not him.) Darth's clarifying posts: Posted during Day Three, on June 12 at 12:47 pm I meant I was looking for breadcrumbs from dead town. I actually looked for them, and didn't find anything, except that I think KidV was reading other crumbs better than everyone else. You on the other hand, have tried to give me a motivation that I don't actually have and additionally dismissed what I said out of hand. You posted this after the first clarifying post and your response to me after the second: He's clearly saying that he hasn't seen anybody other than Hal and himself who has breadcrumbed that they're a possessed Townie. I don't see what's so difficult about this.
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Gir!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 17, 2008 19:57:16 GMT -5
Kat, it was just an idea when I looked in here and went...whoa...nobody's here. It looks like I was wrong, though. Why tie it into the milk then? Since Czech (now you) accepted the milk, you'd have received any post restriction notification along with any other milk-takers, if such a thing had occurred. Roosh-smudging?
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Post by Rysto on Jun 17, 2008 20:20:34 GMT -5
Don't twist my words. Pretend that you're a scummy Darth. You've scoured the game threads looking for breadcrumbs from living power roles but come up empty. Do you then go and ask the Town "Hey guys, I was looking for power roles but did find any. Has anybody identified any?" Would you, in a million years, consider asking something so scummy? Scum absolutely do slip up, but there's always a reason for the slip-ups. Perfect information syndrome is a great example of this: it's a slip that happens because the scum have access to information that Townies don't. It's only natural to not consider scenarios that you know to be impossible. But this supposed slip from Darth? Nobody has considered the critical question of " why would scum do this?" It just doesn't make any fucking sense. You asked what context I used to come up with my interpretation. I answered that question. I have no idea why you think that I was defending that interpretation as the only possible one when I answered you earlier. You asked a question, you got an answer.
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Post by Kison on Jun 17, 2008 20:24:15 GMT -5
Stuff is all over the place. The only consistent thing I have seen is that BlaM wanted FCoD dead. I have to think that puts him in the town collumn now that we know that FCoD was town. BlaM was hounding him too hard to be scum. (disclaimer, not that he couldn't be scum, I just don't see the percentage in scum hounding a single townie every Day until his death, it just doesn't make sense to me) I've seen scum hound a lot harder. :-) Kison - The vote was directed pretty much directed solely at getting Roosh to talk Yes. And why did you want him to spill the beans so eagerly? If you did not suspect him, then why did you require an explanation of what he was doing?
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Gir!
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Post by Gir! on Jun 17, 2008 20:29:23 GMT -5
Just because pedescribe's tally made me want to check. People who had milk delivered to them: misterblockeyKat (Based on mod ruling posted By Roosh here) Czech (now pedescribe)FlyingCowofDoomSurvivor (Greedy) SmurfNanookNAF1138Darth Sensitivetdpatriots12molefan1981KisonNames repeated without links (in case I screwed up the coding and made an illegible list): misterblockeyKatCzech/pedescribeFCoDSurvivor SmurfNanookNAFDarth SensitivetdpatriotsmolefanKisonIf I missed anyone, speak up here! Posts from these people before pedescribe's Post Count Max Theory was posted: misterblockey 1 Kat 4 Czech/pedescribe 4 FCoD - zombified Survivor Smurf 0 Nanook 1 NAF 1 Darth Sensitive 1 tdpatriots - dead molefan - dead Kison 2 Sure, Day's beginning was slow, but I still don't see any reason to tie that to milk, considering that no non-milked people had more than 4 posts either. Other posteds: hawkeye 4 Rysto 2 hockeymonkey 4 mhaye 1
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Post by Rysto on Jun 17, 2008 20:46:09 GMT -5
If you have some brilliant analysis that you are unable to post during the day, for the love of Pollux do NOT post that you missed the deadline to post it. I knew right then that Molefan wasn't surviving the night. The implications of this just hit me: how could you have known that he was going to die unless you knew that he wasn't scum? FoS Hawkeyeop
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Post by bufftabby on Jun 17, 2008 22:01:59 GMT -5
I've explained my thought process. Because ryjae was the obvious choice, I didn't think the scum would target him because they would assume he would be protected and go for someone else. And I hoped (still hope) that there is a better powered doc-type player than me. Sorry I let you all down. I let my admiration and respect for storyteller cloud my judgment. When he came out as a zombie maker I was pissed at myself for having fell for it. I don't think I'm buying this explanation. Ryjae had made it pretty clear that he had an assortment of useful abilities. I don't see why you'd put faith in someone else to block the attack on an obviously important role. vote Hockey Monkey
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Darth Sensitive
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Jun 18, 2008 0:27:20 GMT -5
Kison - The vote was directed pretty much directed solely at getting Roosh to talk Yes. And why did you want him to spill the beans so eagerly? If you did not suspect him, then why did you require an explanation of what he was doing?[/quote] I guessed that his crazy antics from the day before and the current day had a motivation behind them that he could better explain. If he could not or would not make me understand, the vote would have stayed, but I believed that there needed to be accounting for his vote the day before.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Jun 18, 2008 8:31:10 GMT -5
Sorry I let you all down. I let my admiration and respect for storyteller cloud my judgment. When he came out as a zombie maker I was pissed at myself for having fell for it. If it helps, you will ultimately learn that your judgment was sound. I'm really hoping I have an opportunity to help the Town before it lynches me, but the nature of my role, and my own stupidity, are slowing things down. But more importantly, I think the pressure you're getting over your choice of who to protect is about the silliest thing I've seen so far, and not just because I was your claimed target. Y'all, I just played a Doctor, in the Batman game. Choosing who to protect is difficult, and sometimes you make a quirky choice in an effort to outguess the bad guys. If all you do is protect the most obvious target over and over, the scum can predict you and make you essentially useless.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Jun 18, 2008 8:37:50 GMT -5
I've explained my thought process. Because ryjae was the obvious choice, I didn't think the scum would target him because they would assume he would be protected and go for someone else. And I hoped (still hope) that there is a better powered doc-type player than me. Sorry I let you all down. I let my admiration and respect for storyteller cloud my judgment. When he came out as a zombie maker I was pissed at myself for having fell for it. I don't think I'm buying this explanation. Ryjae had made it pretty clear that he had an assortment of useful abilities. I don't see why you'd put faith in someone else to block the attack on an obviously important role. vote Hockey MonkeyThis is such post-facto crap that it's unbelievable. At the time, there was no more reason to believe ryjae than to believe me. Sure, now ryjae is dead and I'm not, so his alignment is confirmed and mine is not, but not when hockey was making her choice of who to protect. I also have "an assortment of useful abilities." How was hockey to know whether one or both of us was being truthful?
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Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jun 18, 2008 10:26:15 GMT -5
Kat, I was wrong about my theroy. While it's a cool idea, it obviously didn't happen. It was just something I threw out there.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 18, 2008 10:53:59 GMT -5
If you have some brilliant analysis that you are unable to post during the day, for the love of Pollux do NOT post that you missed the deadline to post it. I knew right then that Molefan wasn't surviving the night. The implications of this just hit me: how could you have known that he was going to die unless you knew that he wasn't scum? FoS HawkeyeopRysto...do you have a vote on someone?
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Post by Rysto on Jun 18, 2008 11:00:23 GMT -5
Not yet. I'll have it in by toNight.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 18, 2008 11:04:33 GMT -5
Not yet. I'll have it in by toNight. Just checking. A rant I just posted in the onboard game got me to wondering why you only FOS'd instead of voting. I am understanding the need for FOS less and less as I watch and play more of these games. But I suppose that is a bit off topic.
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Post by NAF1138 on Jun 18, 2008 12:18:11 GMT -5
You know what, I didn't sleep well last Night, so you all are getting crancky grumpy NAF today. I did a cursory re-read and have a few suspects besides HM but before I get into that allow me to vent a bit.
I REALLY want to lynch BlaM at this point. The problem is, I am leaning towards him being town, and it is too late in the game for me to be able to say "Fuck it, let's lynch him anyway." But right now BlaM is slowing our roll on a massive scale. In a Day that is already too fucking quiet, he hasn't posted once. Not even to say he is too busy to post. COME ON MAN, THAT SHIT TAKES 30 SECONDS!
The amount of evidence, or lack thereof, is frankly fucking staggering, so the rest of this is a fucking shot in the dark based on minor little things. Sorry about that.
I will start with my vote
Vote MisterBlocky
He pinged me on a gut level on Day 1. I pushed him a bit and he responded in what I thought, at the time, was a very townie fashion. He has since also dropped off the map.
He has posted 3 times toDay, 11 times yesterDay, and 10 times the Day before that. If I were scum trying to back off the heat because I had gotten a little more attention than I wanted on Day 1, that is just about what I would do. Post roughly double the minimum needed to stay alive and stop saying things that get you noticed.
Day 1 he rattled on about how there needed to be more discussion...then he dropped to the bottom of the pool of talkers.
He was also intergral in getting the ball rolling for both the TD bandwagon Day 2 and the mounting suspicion of FCoD. Poking both of them up on the suspicion meter.
He also hopped on the Hockeyguy wagon right around the time it became obvious that HG was the lynch target. I know people are looking at the folks who got on that wagon late, but I don't think that is where scum would hide. Especially on Day 1 if you are going to bus a teammate you get in on that action early so as not to draw suspicion.
It's all small stuff I know. But my other suspect way Rysto and I have even less on him. In the end my gut agrees that Blocky is more likely scum then not. I trust my gut, couple that with the evidence and I think that this is a good lynch.
I would, of course, also be totally fine with a HM lynch but I figure I should take my own advice from past games and try not to get tunnel vision. If it looks like she is becoming a viable lynch candidate though, I will move my vote in that direction.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jun 18, 2008 12:19:21 GMT -5
If you have some brilliant analysis that you are unable to post during the day, for the love of Pollux do NOT post that you missed the deadline to post it. I knew right then that Molefan wasn't surviving the night. The implications of this just hit me: how could you have known that he was going to die unless you knew that he wasn't scum? FoS HawkeyeopOkay, now I feel better. Yes, anytime someone says I have information to share, but I can't share it until the next day, I don't expect them to survive the night. It is logical for the scum to limit the information town is accessible to. This required no special knowledge on my part. The day is more than half over, and again no Blaster in sight.
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