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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 8:03:55 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 26, 2007 8:03:55 GMT -5
Hrm. Mod, can we set it up so that guests can't post in this forum? I don't know if that was dnooman or not, but anyone saying that they "need to leave a record" is either stupid, suicidal, or scummy. Yeah, I really doubt that was him.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 8:34:56 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 26, 2007 8:34:56 GMT -5
It makes it a bit tricky knowing what to do with one when any of them claim, though-- keep them alive since they're technically town and the numbers count for us, or quickly kill them off to erase a long-shot genius win possibility? That might depend on how the game looks right then, but I think Jsexton and Hal have the right idea-- the geniuses would have to be very darn sure of their abilities if they wanted to start purposefully getting town killed off. (Bolding mine) The idea of killing of Geniuses just to "ensure" a town victory just sounds like a TERRIBLE Terrible awful idea to me. We shouldn't kill off our fellow townspeople, because even if they have ulterior motives they are still on our side. Hell, even the crazy townie is going to be my freind. The enemy of my enemy is my friend in this game. This is a good catch, Roosh. I find it interesting that she seems to almost mildly suggest going after geniuses, even after discussion had been raised that geniuses should be playing pro-town. She then very quickly back-tracks after you pull this point out of her post. Now, this isn't enough for me to change my vote toward her, because, while this would seem suspicious from just about anyone else, this is very much in line with her play style in M4 where she tended to pretty much say whatever was on her mind. However, it's enough to make me want to go back and scrutinize her posts thus far.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 8:36:11 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 26, 2007 8:36:11 GMT -5
Hmm... I see Idle Thoughts has changed my name color to be a light grey. Can the Firefox users see it now?
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 8:41:49 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Jul 26, 2007 8:41:49 GMT -5
I try, then, to concentrate not on actions. While I recognize that vote counts, voting patterns, spreadsheets, and whatnot seem to be helpful to others, to me they are secondary. I'm interested in studying the chain of logic behind any given action. I'm mostly looking for people who seem to be trying to create artificial results using ostensibly sound reasoning that's flawed under scrutiny. (bolding added) Fair play. But sometimes the flaws can come from ignorance (instead of malice). I have been quite sure of some such "flawed" reasoning that turned out to be totally townie (there was plenty of that in that clusterfuck day in M2). I guess the best way is to come up with strategies to "test" the flaws - whether they are deliberate and based on secret knowledge, or whether they are just careless townies. I think we would be best to keep these sorts of strategies to ourselves, so as not to hand the playbook to the opposition. I also think that we townies should be prepared to have our reasoning suspected and challenged and tested, and to be open to it. Of course, the geniuses and doctors will also have knowledge and will therefore look scummy (and I have every faith that their superior intelligence will allow them to manage that). Any ideas on how to tell maliciously flawed reasoning from ignorantly flawed reasoning? (and, in turn, from reasoning designed to help keep our townie power roles hidden?) Without handing the playbook to the opposition, of course. Man, this game is hard!
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 8:49:56 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Jul 26, 2007 8:49:56 GMT -5
Another thing that we'll need to be on the lookout for is how our ability to talk about the game at night will change the effectiveness of the scum night-kill. In past games the scum have had to guess what the real reaction of the town would be to any given lynching, and who the town would go after next, and base their night-kill on this guess. Now they will be able to wait and see who we blame for a town-lynch, or who we credit with a scum-lynch, and make much better use of their kill. This seems to me a large advantage for the scum, but it could lead to other interesting scum-tells. It could definitely make some interesting stuff happen. We should keep in mind what you said when it's Night, so that we don't give away much to help the scum. If the scum does watch the town at Night for clues about who to kill that Night, it's definitely an opportunity for some townie trickery, especially for the Geniuses but for the rest of us too. Looks like Nighttime might be fun!
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 9:09:48 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jul 26, 2007 9:09:48 GMT -5
(Bolding mine) The idea of killing of Geniuses just to "ensure" a town victory just sounds like a TERRIBLE Terrible awful idea to me. [...] This is a good catch, Roosh. I find it interesting that she seems to almost mildly suggest going after geniuses, even after discussion had been raised that geniuses should be playing pro-town. She then very quickly back-tracks after you pull this point out of her post. Ok, no, this looks dodgy, I'm sure, but it was meant in hypothetical/ devil's advocate/hyperbolic terms-- just considering implications in light of Malacandra's sugestion that the geniuses will play both sides against each other. We need a Devil's advocate smilie. I think I should stop posting hypotheticals.
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 10:59:26 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Jul 26, 2007 10:59:26 GMT -5
I try, then, to concentrate not on actions. While I recognize that vote counts, voting patterns, spreadsheets, and whatnot seem to be helpful to others, to me they are secondary. I'm interested in studying the chain of logic behind any given action. I'm mostly looking for people who seem to be trying to create artificial results using ostensibly sound reasoning that's flawed under scrutiny. Any ideas on how to tell maliciously flawed reasoning from ignorantly flawed reasoning? (and, in turn, from reasoning designed to help keep our townie power roles hidden?) Follow the money. That is, look for motive. If someone posts flawed reasoning, well, why? Do you see a way it could benefit them? Is it highly likely to backfire if it was intentional? Does it seem like they are prone to that sort of error? (This is where someone inevitably chimes in with "WIFOM!", so I'll address it and get it out of the way.) Remember, there is a big difference between the 'Wine in front of me' problem, and honest analysis. WIFOM at it's core only comes up when someone presents a defense, i.e., "Hey, I can't be scum because scum wouldn't do that." There's nothing WIFOM about analyzing someone's behavior and deciding for yourself, "I don't think that Player X's posts are consistent with scum motivation."
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 11:12:53 GMT -5
Post by Drain Bead on Jul 26, 2007 11:12:53 GMT -5
Hrm. Mod, can we set it up so that guests can't post in this forum? I don't know if that was dnooman or not, but anyone saying that they "need to leave a record" is either stupid, suicidal, or scummy. Yeah, I really doubt that was him. Me too, which is why it would be best if guests couldn't post in the actual game threads. I'm not sure if it could be game-breaking, but this game is confusing enough without having to figure out if someone is a fake or just forgot to log in.
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 11:48:11 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Jul 26, 2007 11:48:11 GMT -5
(Bolding mine) The idea of killing of Geniuses just to "ensure" a town victory just sounds like a TERRIBLE Terrible awful idea to me. We shouldn't kill off our fellow townspeople, because even if they have ulterior motives they are still on our side. Hell, even the crazy townie is going to be my freind. The enemy of my enemy is my friend in this game. This is a good catch, Roosh. I find it interesting that she seems to almost mildly suggest going after geniuses, even after discussion had been raised that geniuses should be playing pro-town. She then very quickly back-tracks after you pull this point out of her post. Er...I think that's taking things a bit out of context. Capy says pretty clearly in the next sentence that she wants to follow what I and Hal said, and not worry about geniuses.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 11:54:35 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 26, 2007 11:54:35 GMT -5
Ok, no, this looks dodgy, I'm sure, but it was meant in hypothetical/ devil's advocate/hyperbolic terms-- just considering implications in light of Malacandra's sugestion that the geniuses will play both sides against each other. We need a Devil's advocate smilie. I think I should stop posting hypotheticals. I understand, hence the rest of my post which you didn't quote. This, I think, is what drew my early suspicion on you in M4. As I learned that that was just your style, I backed down. So far, it seems fairly consistent to me which is why I'm not going to vote or FOS you. However, knowing that scum will take advantage of nuances in their "established" play style (e.g., Autolycus in M4), I will not simply give a free pass to people who seem to be consistent. In your case, knowing that you like to play devil's advocate and brain dump (not terribly unlike aspects of my own style), I will be watching for different clues instead; hence, why I mention I'll need to more closely scrutinize your posts.
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Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:08:21 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 26, 2007 12:08:21 GMT -5
Hmm... I see Idle Thoughts has changed my name color to be a light grey. Can the Firefox users see it now? With very great difficulty, on a slightly lighter grey background. While on this subject, HockeyMonkey, I'd like to thank you for changing back. I could not read the yellow text at all. it was worse than the white or grey BM used. And I am not[/i] going to use IE.
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RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:23:46 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jul 26, 2007 12:23:46 GMT -5
ARGH! I just can't get the hang of multi-quoting....
I was trying to make an arguement and it just keeps eating my posts....
I'll come back any try again later but jeez.... Maybe I need to upgrade my Firefox (keep getting message can't hold more than 2 quotes in my database, not enough space)
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:24:19 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Jul 26, 2007 12:24:19 GMT -5
I can barely read your name, blaster, yet somehow (SOMEHOW) I can tell that it's you. It must be sublaminal.
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:27:37 GMT -5
Post by nesta on Jul 26, 2007 12:27:37 GMT -5
Any ideas on how to tell maliciously flawed reasoning from ignorantly flawed reasoning? (and, in turn, from reasoning designed to help keep our townie power roles hidden?) Follow the money. That is, look for motive. If someone posts flawed reasoning, well, why? Do you see a way it could benefit them? Is it highly likely to backfire if it was intentional? Does it seem like they are prone to that sort of error? This is a very important point. I know that I for one tend to end up sidetracked by gut feelings based on the tone of posts, or little things that might be scum tells, and end up ignoring the bigger ones. In this game especially, with scum able to post during the day, we need to be looking for those who are trying to change the focus of discussion or suspicion, whether subtly or overtly. Looking back at my play in M3 I realize now that the scum had subtly planted seeds about players that were some of the basis of my gut feelings. In the end I would have done much better at spotting the scum if I had stepped back and looked at when and why these seeds were planted, and what they grew into.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:31:11 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jul 26, 2007 12:31:11 GMT -5
Hmm... I see Idle Thoughts has changed my name color to be a light grey. Can the Firefox users see it now? With very great difficulty, on a slightly lighter grey background. While on this subject, HockeyMonkey, I'd like to thank you for changing back. I could not read the yellow text at all. it was worse than the white or grey BM used. And I am not[/i] going to use IE.[/quote] You're welcome.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
Posts: 371
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:36:35 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jul 26, 2007 12:36:35 GMT -5
Follow the money. That is, look for motive. If someone posts flawed reasoning, well, why? Do you see a way it could benefit them? Is it highly likely to backfire if it was intentional? Does it seem like they are prone to that sort of error? This is a very important point. I know that I for one tend to end up sidetracked by gut feelings based on the tone of posts, or little things that might be scum tells, and end up ignoring the bigger ones. In this game especially, with scum able to post during the day, we need to be looking for those who are trying to change the focus of discussion or suspicion, whether subtly or overtly. Looking back at my play in M3 I realize now that the scum had subtly planted seeds about players that were some of the basis of my gut feelings. In the end I would have done much better at spotting the scum if I had stepped back and looked at when and why these seeds were planted, and what they grew into. Nesta, this is an excellent way to think about it. I've always been focused on the now rather than the past, so in this and other games, I'll try to take the tack of looking at the seeds of suspicion, and how they grew. (I award you 1 Karma point).
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:51:04 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 26, 2007 12:51:04 GMT -5
sigh... since people insist on using Firefox, and for whatever reason it doesn't have glow text implemented, until ya'll upgrade or they add the functionality, I'll have to go to a less cool looking name. Idle Thoughts, can you change it to black text wit ha green glow? Preferably with an intensity of 3: [glow=green,3,300] Blaster Master[/glow]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:52:33 GMT -5
Post by nesta on Jul 26, 2007 12:52:33 GMT -5
(I award you 1 Karma point). Thanks. I had a feeling I'd end up not getting a single karma point the whole game... I feel better now.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 12:56:33 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 26, 2007 12:56:33 GMT -5
(I award you 1 Karma point). Thanks. I had a feeling I'd end up not getting a single karma point the whole game... I feel better now. And yet, now you have 3!
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 13:04:42 GMT -5
Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jul 26, 2007 13:04:42 GMT -5
Thanks. I had a feeling I'd end up not getting a single karma point the whole game... I feel better now. And yet, now you have 3! Hey BlaM, At least you are back to even!
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 13:12:17 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Jul 26, 2007 13:12:17 GMT -5
Sounds good, let's talk about how to find scum. Story, you go first. (snip) More seriously, there is no one action that will work as a scum tell in every case; as you may remember from our previous work together, scum will act differently from one another. Almost any action usually could have an innocent explanation or a nefarious explanation. I try, then, to concentrate not on actions. While I recognize that vote counts, voting patterns, spreadsheets, and whatnot seem to be helpful to others, to me they are secondary. I'm interested in studying the chain of logic behind any given action. I'm mostly looking for people who seem to be trying to create artificial results using ostensibly sound reasoning that's flawed under scrutiny. (snip) I've been mulling this question for a while. And now it hit me: I don't have a good way to find scum (at least not from posts). That's why I tend to fade a bit into the background, at least during the first couple of days. The way I do it is to analyze probable behavior of scum during certain situations (when one of their own is threatened, when a citizen is lynched) and then go back over their posts to see if there are additional scum tells. I don't know how well it'll work now that they are able to communicate even during the Day, though...
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 13:13:53 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 26, 2007 13:13:53 GMT -5
Hey BlaM, At least you are back to even! Yes, yes. Quite the surprise to me, coming from -6 back to 0. I was starting to think I'd dug myself a hole and would get quickly lynched before the game even started.
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 13:31:28 GMT -5
Post by Drain Bead on Jul 26, 2007 13:31:28 GMT -5
With very great difficulty, on a slightly lighter grey background. While on this subject, HockeyMonkey, I'd like to thank you for changing back. I could not read the yellow text at all. it was worse than the white or grey BM used. And I am not[/i] going to use IE.[/quote] You're welcome. [/quote] Unvote hockeymonkey. ;D
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 13:32:21 GMT -5
Post by Drain Bead on Jul 26, 2007 13:32:21 GMT -5
And what the hell....vote Blaster Master, since the gray is almost as annoying as the yellow.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 13:55:56 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Jul 26, 2007 13:55:56 GMT -5
And what the hell.... vote Blaster Master, since the gray is almost as annoying as the yellow. Hey, didn't you see my post up there where I asked Idle Thoughts to change how my name looked in light of the people using Firefox? Geesh!
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 14:01:27 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 26, 2007 14:01:27 GMT -5
And what the hell.... vote Blaster Master, since the gray is almost as annoying as the yellow. Hey, didn't you see my post up there where I asked Idle Thoughts to change how my name looked in light of the people using Firefox? Geesh! On the other hand, you have changed your name to Blam Blam Blam Blam, which is going to be a PITA to type out every time someone's trying to make a point, so I'd say you're batting .500 at this stage. -------------- So we're basically halfway through the Day, and general strategy / Genius strategy discussion and talk about the color of usernames aside, we're really not making too much progress. Someone has to break the ice a bit. I'm going to vote drainbead. I have very little confidence in this vote. However, her weirdly specific smudge of MadtheSwine gave me modest pause, and she never responded to my previous post on the subject, so what the hell.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 14:08:42 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Jul 26, 2007 14:08:42 GMT -5
And what the hell.... vote Blaster Master, since the gray is almost as annoying as the yellow. I almost want to vote for BlaM for changing his name mid-game. Is that even legal?
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 14:09:49 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Jul 26, 2007 14:09:49 GMT -5
<snip> Yeah, I really doubt that was him. Wow. If it wasn't, the scum are especially scummy this game!
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 14:10:37 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 26, 2007 14:10:37 GMT -5
Hrm. Mod, can we set it up so that guests can't post in this forum? I don't know if that was dnooman or not, but anyone saying that they "need to leave a record" is either stupid, suicidal, or scummy. You got it. Vote count coming up shortly.
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Day One
Jul 26, 2007 14:12:57 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Jul 26, 2007 14:12:57 GMT -5
So we're basically halfway through the Day, and general strategy / Genius strategy discussion and talk about the color of usernames aside, we're really not making too much progress. Someone has to break the ice a bit. Agreed. On that note I'll call out some lurkers. dnooman, what's up with you? (and with that guest post?)
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