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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 9:15:39 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 9:15:39 GMT -5
Roosh - God bless you, but you are killing me. I get on the Boards this morning to do a re-read, and there's a brain-dump post at 8:42 in which you reason your way down to the definite conclusion - in ALL CAPS, NO LESS - that we must not lynch either Doctor toDay. Twelve short hours later, you are casting a vote for one of the Doctors. It seems like you saw that a lot of people were in favor of holding off on a Doctor lynching and needed to pay lip service to being in agreement. But then you hopped aboard the "let's lynch a Doctor" express. This sort of pinballing inconsistency makes it hard to get a bead on you. And at this stage of the game, it seems scummy - like you want to have your cake and eat it too, to be on record as supporting a lynch of one of the three true unknowns but not actually, you know, support it. Some specific comments (I have conflated some of your posts to allow for only one reply instead of several): First, I agree with your analysis of the situation if there are three scum remaining. It matches my own, a few posts back. Here's a point, though. I am a Normie. If you are, as well - and I do not accept that you are - then there are only two scum left. Of course, just as I don't accept you as town, you don't accept me as town, and we have no way to prove anything to our mutual satisfaction, so the number of scum remaining remains a mystery. Here's the thing. If there were 2 scum: 2/5 chance then of lynching. That's 40% of a random kill. Worse than a Doctor claim. However, if they succeed in the doc dying, then the next day, we'd lose 1, but we'd kill the scumdoc, so then they get ANOTHER night kill, and we go to 2days ahead. In this case (if they picked off the confirmed townies, and we lynched the doc) It'd be a game of 1 scum vs. 2 townies. A 1/3 chance of winning. Scary Bad choices for Us. Methinks, cuz they'd obv. vote out the scumdoc, and save their slicker player to be in the final 3. The Wine would overflow. The thing is... That's bad. But is it as bad as 3 scummies? No. It's not. If there are 3 scum, we are in a very precarious position. Of course, if there are 3 scum, you are not part of " we" (because if there are 3 scum you're one of them), so that's not an issue that you need to worry about either way, I guess. Though again, you can't know that. Isn't this a fun game? If there are only two left, this move still makes sense. At this stage, there is no reason for our Doctor to claim with no scum counterclaim - if the Doctor is allowed to claim uncontested, it further reduces our pool anyway. At least this way, the scum have a chance of getting us to kill our Doctor for them. But we shouldn't play their game; we should force the issue with the three unconfirmed. We'll be 50/50 to lose a confirmed townie. The scum would be unbelievably foolish to target you, me, or BM toNight, as doing so would essentially mean a certain town win. They also won't target the Doc, since that would out the false Doc. They'll target nesta or capy, and so will the Doc. Right, so, um... why are you currently voting for one of the Doctors? OK, here's the problem. I understand what you're saying here. But EVERYONE knows their own role 100%. I know mine. Blaster knows his. diggit knows his. You seem to be advocating a plan of action to the town that depends upon the town assuming that you, yourself, are town. We can't know that. If it's true, and if we could know it, it would change a lot of things. But you can't make an argument that amounts to: "lynch So-and-So because I am town." You still have to give us reasons to believe that So-and-So is scum. Or reasons, apart from "I know my role," to believe that you are not. From another post, discussing diggit: Well, the first sentence above would indeed be a powerful indictment against diggit if diggit knew that Mal was scum.. If diggit is telling the truth, though, he had no idea, and so wasn't "avoiding hammering scum." What were diggit's reasons for his votes and lack of votes? Why is more interesting than what, especially now.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 10:03:45 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 28, 2007 10:03:45 GMT -5
Oh what the hell, I'm gone most of the day again till about 12amish again. And I'd hate for anything to think i'm just smudging w/o backing it up. Vote DiggitBut please don't pile up on him (ie: take a little bit more time.... this is risky. As if we fuck up, we've lost the game honestly). So i guess.... Diggit, you should start talking? Ummm... I'm sorry, but haven't I been doing exactly that, Roosh? There are a couple of facts out there: 1. My very first post was a big hint as to my role 2. Even if most people don't agree with my strategy, the thing about is, is it worked. In other words: my strategy was to have the psychos not voting against me (check), based on the assumption that once both geniuses were known the psychos would, again, avoid voting for a group that reduced the chance of having a successful night Kill (check) Remember the "random distribution" theory someone floated around at the beginning of the game. Now look at Mal's votes as compared to mine. Compare these votes to drainbead's votes and to pygmy's. What makes more sense? Two scum voting very similarly ( Mal and mine) or rather trying to "distribute their votes randomly"? And finally if storyteller is right and there are 3 psychos left, by lynching me you're simply giving up the game. You said it yourself. Let me say it again: if there are 3 scum left, lynching the Doctor toDay kills all hope for the Town. Having a mislynch of anybody else leaves the slim chance that I can protect someone successfully during the Night. That would, at least, give us one more Day to work with.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 10:13:31 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 10:13:31 GMT -5
Well, while waiting to hear capy's conspiracy theory - and hey, capy, weren't you just making fun of me for emulating the MadtheSwine-style "guess what's in my secret bag" post? - back to Blaster Master. Okay, at least this makes more sense than what I remembered reading, but it is extremely circumstancial. Allow me to explain using my past persona from M4. In that game, with the exception of the first Day when I garnered some suspicion for not posting (because I didn't have access for whatever reason I can't remember), I had VERY little suspicion through the vast majority of the game. I figured, as pro-town as I felt I was coming across, that I would be targetted, but I never was. Afterward, reading through the pirate forum, I found that Gadarene specifically argued that leaving me alive helped give him cover. Especially, after your early death, if I had been killed as well, the crew would have been left wondering why-oh-why was Gadarene, the most pro-crew player of all, not targetted? <snipped> So here's my concern, as an extension of my previous thoughts, regardless of whether we have two or three scum left, they have one target who is pretty much unlynchable (the doctor) and then one or two other targets they pretty much HAVE to get lynched. I would also suspect, based on the death of MadTheSwine being almost certainly an attempt at the doctor, that they probably had their most likely doctor candidate either selected or largely narrowed down. This also means that likely, yesterday, they were well aware of their worst case scenario if their target wasn't the doctor and that they'd have to prepare to target one of those among them. Further, establishing that I think it's likely I wasn't targetted specifically as cover for a player who is unlikely to be lynched, then the only person who can start an offensive against me is the very person I was left alive to protect... Storyteller. This is a very interesting theory. 'Course, I'm not scum, so I know it's not true, but then, you didn't put it out there for my benefit, did you? This is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis except for the fact that it works just as well in reverse - with you as scum as me as your "unsuspected" cover. It is therefore valueless. It's four paragraphs of total speculation, unburdened by any need for facts or reasoning. First of all, the "it's not suspicious because it applies to you, too" defense is really kind of specious. And handwaving away the fact that I have been the subject of suspicion doesn't change that fact. I think your description of Roosh's reasons for suspecting me is a mischaracterization of, say, this post: psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=asylumlane&action=display&thread=1185818180&page=3#1185857291I think I'll let others decide. Well, it wasn't a subtle smudge of Diggit, seeing as I mentioned him at the same time. And the only sense in which I was smudging Roosh was in the sense that I was saying, "trust no one, let no one go unexamined." "Likely" according to who? To you? I reject this statement. I do not think it "likely" that it is what he was doing. I think at the time NAF made that statement, he knew he was in trouble. He was not at a "slinging mud and seeing what sticks" stage of the game; he was at a "try not to die but try to maximize my value if I do" stage. His FoS of you was tossed off and forgotten, but he knew that if he died, he'd be on the record as having FoSed someone, and that someone could benefit from the cred. I did not drop the topic altogether. I brought it up again the next Day. Good grief! Yeah, you do not RC. Mal subbed out during the lead-up to the revelation of JSexton's kill, end of Day 3. NAF began posting substantively in his place at the beginning of Day 4, and was lynched at the end of Day 4. He FoSed you very early on his FIRST day in the game. I will assume that this was an honest error on your part, though. You want me to address what, for crying out loud? I said that a genius claim would simplify the search for a lynch target. You said: I said: You then accused me of misrepresenting you, saying: So here is me, addressing that post: I did not misrepresent what you said. You said "if they're about to get lynched, they claim... that simple." The distinction between "about to get lynched" and "at death's door" is - well, there is no distinction. You said that if a player is about to get lynched, they can claim; I argued that waiting until a player is about to get lynched to claim is detrimental. There was no misrepresentation. Stop saying there was.Happy now? I don't remember smudging you, but it's been a long game and I may have forgotten. I stand by my characterization of your game. I can't do anything about the meta-game stuff, but I'm sure that you understand, town or scum, that meta-game stuff can only cut a certain amount of ice at this stage. Not necessarily. And if that were the only thing on my list of reasons to suspect you, it'd be a weak tell. But it's part of a collection of behaviors that, collectively seem scummy to me. Maybe. Again, nothing is definitive. I'd love it if you'd have worn a little sign around your neck that said, "I am Scum: Ask Me How!" But you didn't. So we have to draw inferences, make educated guesses, and hope we get it right. That's the game. Every one of my points against you can of course be explained away. Taken collectively, they create a picture of a player who seems scummy. The thing about your reciprocal suspicion is that it's so opportunistic. The Day after my initial vote for drainbead, you were informing people that I was "probably town" because of it (more precisely, someone else's point against me caused you to downgrade me from "probably town," where I had been). Do you remember? We had a little exchange. I thought it was odd that you'd say that. You gave me reasons why my vote for drain was a reason to trust me. Now, all these Days later, that same vote is a reason to suspect me. That's not because I'm currently accusing you of being scum, is it? Nah. But you said you would consider changing your vote even though you knew you were basically leaving and wouldn't be back before the voting deadline. That is, you knew you wouldn't consider changing your vote, because you wouldn't be around to change your vote. Right? So why the disclaimer that you're open to other options. Thanks. You know what? I'm OK with that. Observers, observe. Interpret. This is possible. But there's literally nothing I can do about that. If your playstyle in this game seems scummy to me, than it does. If that's an artifact of meta-game factors, then that's the way the cookie crumbles. How else can I approach it? Scum can have access issues too. I think they had an intensity - regardless of their number - that your approach to other matters has lacked. But as you say, this is really for observers to interpret. Check it out and decide for yourselves - did the tone of Blaster's posts on the mhaye issue match the tone of his other participation? My answer is "yes, I can say I would have been less impassioned. I am a vanilla Normie. I didn't believe mhaye, and would have argued against him, but would have been cognizant that my death was not particularly important and would have proved me right, if I was right. This is obviously unprovable, though, and thus not much worth discussing. OK, then, for the record: I know that you are not the only one who argued against mhaye. I do not consider you solely responsible for that debacle, nor in fact even particularly responsible. Your role in the outcome is not an issue. Anyone who accused you of being solely responsible for that outcome would be being incredibly disingenuous at best. I simply think your style and approach seemed to dramatically change in the context of mhaye's claim.This is fair enough. I strongly agree with you, actually.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 12:16:57 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 28, 2007 12:16:57 GMT -5
diggitcamara (2) - pygmyrugger, Roosh pygmyrugger (1) - diggitcamara
A little over 24 hours remain of Day.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 12:51:46 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 12:51:46 GMT -5
Geez, did I kill the game? Where did everyone go?
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 12:58:30 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Aug 28, 2007 12:58:30 GMT -5
Geez, did I kill the game? Where did everyone go? Well I'm right here...and I think I saw dotchan zomby-ing about too. Want some zombie help?
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:02:53 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 28, 2007 13:02:53 GMT -5
Geez, did I kill the game? Where did everyone go? Good question. Both capybara and pygmy's last posts were cryptic "I know all and soon will tell" posts. I, for my part, have pretty much said all I can to try to avert a loss for the town.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:03:04 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 13:03:04 GMT -5
Geez, did I kill the game? Where did everyone go? Well I'm right here...and I think I saw dotchan zomby-ing about too. Want some zombie help? Perhaps we could arrange an elaborate musical number?
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:07:31 GMT -5
Post by Hal Briston on Aug 28, 2007 13:07:31 GMT -5
Perhaps we could arrange an elaborate musical number? Thriller?
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:11:01 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Aug 28, 2007 13:11:01 GMT -5
Well I'm right here...and I think I saw dotchan zomby-ing about too. Want some zombie help? Perhaps we could arrange an elaborate musical number? Sign me up, I am a sucker for elaborate musical numbers. And ice cream. Elaborate musical numbers and ice cream. Ohhh yeah.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:15:17 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 13:15:17 GMT -5
Perhaps we could arrange an elaborate musical number? Thriller? How about "All the Men in My Life Keep Getting Killed by Candarian Demons," from Evil Dead: The Musical?No ice cream. But there's a chainsaw. That's basically the same, right?
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:15:42 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Aug 28, 2007 13:15:42 GMT -5
Sorry, IRL I'm moving house today and things are hectic ("how did all this parrot food get EVERYwhere in the kitchen?)"-- haven't had time to read these novel-length manifestos. I'm not so sure about what's in my magic bag anymore but I promise I'll catch up this afternoon or evening.
And it wasn't a 'I know all and will soon tell" post, it was a "I had a thought but it might be too insane to mention".
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:16:30 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 13:16:30 GMT -5
Sorry, IRL I'm moving house today and things are hectic ("how did all this parrot food get EVERYwhere in the kitchen?)"-- haven't had time to read these novel-length manifestos. I'm not so sure about what's in my magic bag anymore but I promise I'll catch up this afternoon or evening. And it wasn't a 'I know all and will soon tell" post, it was a "I had a thought but it might be too insane to mention". Have you been playing the same game as the rest of us? Nothing is too insane to mention.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:20:42 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 28, 2007 13:20:42 GMT -5
Sorry, IRL I'm moving house today and things are hectic ("how did all this parrot food get EVERYwhere in the kitchen?)"-- haven't had time to read these novel-length manifestos. I'm not so sure about what's in my magic bag anymore but I promise I'll catch up this afternoon or evening. And it wasn't a 'I know all and will soon tell" post, it was a "I had a thought but it might be too insane to mention". Have you been playing the same game as the rest of us? Nothing is too insane to mention. I got a feeling that, actually, capybara's crazy theory involves two psychopath's claiming/counterclaiming Doctor status. Honestly? I wouldn't speak up if I had had that theory, either.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:24:50 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 13:24:50 GMT -5
Have you been playing the same game as the rest of us? Nothing is too insane to mention. I got a feeling that, actually, capybara's crazy theory involves two psychopath's claiming/counterclaiming Doctor status. Honestly? I wouldn't speak up if I had had that theory, either. In such a case, what is our actual Doctor doing right now?
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:35:31 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 28, 2007 13:35:31 GMT -5
I got a feeling that, actually, capybara's crazy theory involves two psychopath's claiming/counterclaiming Doctor status. Honestly? I wouldn't speak up if I had had that theory, either. In such a case, what is our actual Doctor doing right now? Ummm... you do realize I'm speculating about the nature of capybara's crazy theory? Its validity is akin to a theory that the two geniuses are actually psychos and that there is a solitary genius hidden somewhere who hasn't exposed them as frauds. (hint: I don't believe the second crazy theory either. Second hint: the theory I speculated on is obviously not true; I am the true Doctor)And for the record: I would believe that would be an .... invalid... theory because the Doctor could simply sit back, relax and watch as the town lynches one of the two impostors (IMHO the most likely outcome).
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 13:42:04 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 13:42:04 GMT -5
In such a case, what is our actual Doctor doing right now? Ummm... you do realize I'm speculating about the nature of capybara's crazy theory? Its validity is akin to a theory that the two geniuses are actually psychos and that there is a solitary genius hidden somewhere who hasn't exposed them as frauds. No, I got that... I just thought maybe you'd have an idea why capy would have evolved such a theory. But anyway, I feel like I've said everything I can, as well, at least pending a response to something from someone. Back to elaborate musical numbers.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 14:19:13 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 28, 2007 14:19:13 GMT -5
I didn't mean for my last post to imply that I knew all and would come back soon, I just had to leave before I could post thoughts on story, BlaM, and Roosh.
Story and BlaM's wordy argument seems a little manufactured. They're both good players, and I really don't know what to make of it. They're both twisting words here and there, nothing major, just subtle little smudges of interpretations. I'm really at a loss right now as to who to vote for, and I have to go back home (hometown home) tonight, and can't get on after I leave work in a couple hours. I'm going to try and reread, and may change my vote before I leave. I know it's on scum right now, but I understand the reasoning behind why the people who don't know that (and even two or three that do) would want me to change it.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 14:28:37 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 28, 2007 14:28:37 GMT -5
(snip) I know it's on scum right now, but I understand the reasoning behind why the people who don't know that (and even two or three that do) (snip) ... and who are those two or three people who supposedly know your vote "is on scum right now" yet want to change it?
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 14:30:43 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Aug 28, 2007 14:30:43 GMT -5
Well, I'd love to do a musical number, but I seem to have dropped my tube of Shiney Glitter when you guys pushed me off the cliff.
None of you have seen it around, have you...?
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RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 14:59:26 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Aug 28, 2007 14:59:26 GMT -5
-Snip- Well, the first sentence above would indeed be a powerful indictment against diggit if diggit knew that Mal was scum.. If diggit is telling the truth, though, he had no idea, and so wasn't "avoiding hammering scum." What were diggit's reasons for his votes and lack of votes? Why is more interesting than what, especially now. That's simple to answer actually. One that I thought you'd be able to understand: If diggit was SCUM, why WOULD he want to hammer scum rather than save them? Why are you YOU asking ME about his reasons? I've stated my views on what he reasoning could be, but that's just MY view. And my view is that he KNEW Mal was scum and didn't hammer him. Because Diggit is scum. And yes, I advocated not lynching a doctor at the start of the day. But I now believe that one person is VERY VERY Scummy. And so, I am a flexible person. My don't lynch a doctor plan Isn't the Best one (esp. if there are only 2 scum, because then its 50-50 to lynch a townie, though if its 3 scum it's perfect. But I don't know the number of scum. It's the nature of the game indeed). However, if there is someone who LOOKS ridiculously scummy, then my plan is simple: it's the one you presented from day 1: Lynch the scummiest player. And that to me is now Diggit from his posting. Why did he refer to a night kill as a Lynch? A lynch is a choice we as a town make. We don't get "choices" in night kills. But he called it a Night-Lynch. Which to me implies choice, and implies that he views it as a "choice" something which i believe only scum or vig really get to do. For that reason, I now believe Diggit to be scum. Your disbelief is noted, ST. I'm sorry if I do seem all over the place, but I want this town to Win. And I want to do what I think is BEST for the town. And if I believe someone to be scum MORE than I believe the 50-50 shot (if There are only 2 scum) then I will go with the near 100% chance of lynching over the 50-50. However, if its 3 scum, I'll gladly lynch all 3 of you ( Blaster, Story, and Diggit). Because if you were in my shoes, you'd do the same, Story. But yes, I see the Wine. That's why i'm unsure if there is 2 or 3. So I will go with the "better" chance of nailing scum now. Which to me, Is Diggit. More talking to follow. Just breaking it up.
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RoOsh
FGM
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 15:14:19 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Aug 28, 2007 15:14:19 GMT -5
There are a couple of facts out there: 2. Even if most people don't agree with my strategy, the thing about is, is it worked. In other words: my strategy was to have the psychos not voting against me (check), based on the assumption that once both geniuses were known the psychos would, again, avoid voting for a group that reduced the chance of having a successful night Kill (check) Remember the "random distribution" theory someone floated around at the beginning of the game. Now look at Mal's votes as compared to mine. Compare these votes to drainbead's votes and to pygmy's. What makes more sense? Two scum voting very similarly ( Mal and mine) or rather trying to "distribute their votes randomly"? And finally if storyteller is right and there are 3 psychos left, by lynching me you're simply giving up the game. You said it yourself. Let me say it again: if there are 3 scum left, lynching the Doctor toDay kills all hope for the Town. Having a mislynch of anybody else leaves the slim chance that I can protect someone successfully during the Night. That would, at least, give us one more Day to work with. See this is what I was worried about happening (yes, i tend to worry ). When I made said post, It was when i wasn't even sure WHO the doctor was. However, at this point now, that post can EASILY be used by scum to hide behind it if I am close to discovering the real doctor. It's 50-50 vs. 50-50. (BM vs. ST) and (Doc vs. ScumDoc) Both of them SEEM like 50% chances for the town, IF we do it randomly. However, information is a beautiful thing, Information is what pushes a lynch in favor of the town or against it. Right now on the BM and ST side, I'm unsure. I do agree w/ Pygmy, that it seems like the whole BM vs. ST thing seems like a load of wasted scum crap just filling up space. It's just weird to see them go at each other again and again NOW all of a sudden. Just each other. They're not focusing really on other issues, but just defending and attacking each other. I tend to notice Storyteller more in it because his arguments are a bit more vehement. This does not help me though in thinking between the two of them which is scum. In fact it makes me think BOTH are scummy. Especially when you throw my name into the mix, ST. because that WILL reduce our chances to 50% or less if BM is a townie. So I'm leaning away from that 50-50. It's still up in the air to me. However on my Doc issues. I do believe Diggit is scummier. I don't like your defense "because I'm alive, I must have done SOMETHING right. and because I can think like scum, I survived" It's just... not right. Pygmy when he came out, came out with the name of his character, and his voting patterns tend to be similar to what I would have thought... as a townie. Yours... not so much. As for the pygmy vs your votes on day 1.... All I see is in a bandwagon of 3 people. YOU voted for the Nonscummy bandwagon, while Pygmy essentially "Threw away" his vote. Again, I'm gonna have to give the point to Pygmy. He went under the radar, which is what I'd expect a doctor to do, but he also did it in such a way that doesn't end up trying to SAVE scum. Which your NON-SCUM, anti Townie bandwagon vote seems to be doing. Two scum voting very similarly ( Mal and mine) or rather trying to "distribute their votes randomly"? To me, it makes sense to see scum trying to save their own on day one.... Not all scum are the hiders out there. Then again, you, as you put it, are still alive and here. Maybe it worked. =( "And again, if storyteller is right and I'm voting RANDOMLY then i've given away this town's vote." You have to add that little part for it to be correct.... But I'm not voting randomly. I'm now voting for the person who i believe to be scummiest out of 4 people. Also, if i voted randomly between ST AND BM, and there are only 2 scum, then I've ALSO just given away the game. So since I don't know which of ST and BM are scummier, and i don't know if there are 2 scum or 3 scum, I will do what I think is BEST for the town. And that's to vote for the scummiest guy. :shrug: Why'd you call it a night lynch btw? You never answered that Q. That's what I wanted to know. That's all. But I dunno if I'm willing to believe any other answers currently. So unless i can know BETTER which of ST or BM is scum, or short of pygmy making the SAME error that you did, I don't see my vote changing. But feel free to still explain for the undecided voters out there.
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RoOsh
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 15:14:42 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Aug 28, 2007 15:14:42 GMT -5
And now, I'll be back again after 12am. adios for now.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 15:18:10 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 28, 2007 15:18:10 GMT -5
(snip) I know it's on scum right now, but I understand the reasoning behind why the people who don't know that (and even two or three that do) (snip) ... and who are those two or three people who supposedly know your vote "is on scum right now" yet want to change it? Umm... the scum?
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 15:27:14 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 28, 2007 15:27:14 GMT -5
Okay, I know I said I'd get back to this this morning, but I didn't have office access because the AC duct was leaking all over the place. So, expect my response to Storyteller as soon as I can get it out there, but certainly in the next few hours.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 15:28:46 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 15:28:46 GMT -5
Roosh, you can vote for whomever you like at this point; I'm just glad to see someone talking. Some responses. That's simple to answer actually. One that I thought you'd be able to understand: If diggit was SCUM, why WOULD he want to hammer scum rather than save them? Well, of course. But the idea that, "if diggit is scum, he wouldn't hammer Malacandra" (probably, but not definitely, a true statement) does not equal: "if diggit is not scum, he WOULD hammer Malacandra." In other words, you can use this as a brick in the wall, but diggit may have chosen to skip hammering Malacandra because he was genuinely convinced of Mal's innocence, or just not sure of himself. It's not definitive. Because you can go look them up. Can analyze his stated reasons for acting. It's more useful to talk about the reasons he gave for what he did than what he actually did. Day Three, Page Four. But that's... that's just not an argument. You're starting with the conclusion - "Diggit is scum" - and deriving premises from it. Also, just for clarification purposes, I've just looked over the relevant portion of the game again, and diggit did not have an opportunity to hammer Mal, which he forewent in favor of forcing a tie - at the time he voted, his vote put JSexton in the lead - capy and later Greedy Smurf forced one tie and then another. For that reason? And that reason only? I ask this not to be a jerk, but were you equally sure that dotchan was scum based on her similar linguistic "tell?" Well, if you're town, then I am in your shoes. And I wouldn't do the same. But that's OK; we're allowed to disagree on strategy.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 15:49:11 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 15:49:11 GMT -5
I do agree w/ Pygmy, that it seems like the whole BM vs. ST thing seems like a load of wasted scum crap just filling up space. It's just weird to see them go at each other again and again NOW all of a sudden. Just each other. They're not focusing really on other issues, but just defending and attacking each other. This is the first thing you've said today that seems scummy to me, because it is manifestly not true - of either BM or I. storyteller0910 - DAY SIX #6 - Basic strategy discussion #7 - Call for Doctor to claim, and argument in favor of same #11 - Suggestion that pro-town be careful with their votes (brief mention of BM) #18 / #19 - Question to pygmy rugger about his claim #23 - Explicit request to BM that we table our discussion with one another in favor of discussing the competing claims #26 - Post looking for you #35 - Proposition of the strategic value of ignoring both Doctor claimants for the time being #55 - Nothing post #59 - Longish post outlining why I believe diggit's claim over pygmy's (brief mention of BM at end) #60 - Long response to your indictment of diggit #62 - Very long response to Blaster Master's last long post#64, #67, #70, #72, #74, #76 - Basically killing time #85 - Another response to you about diggit I have bold faced the only post I have made toDay "defending [myself from] and attacking" Blaster Master. ToDay I have discussed, at some length, my general ideas for strategy, the value of the Doctor claiming toDay, the issue of diggit vs. pygmy, and the question of whether we should lynch from the Doctor pool or not. On which "other issues" am I not focusing in favor of going after Blaster Master. Blaster Master - DAY SIX #8 - Strategy talk #9 - Nothing post, though technically directed at me. #10 - Vote for pygmy rugger, referencing yesterday's argument #22 - Very lengthy response to my accusations, with some fun counter-accusations for spice#24 - Quick pair of questions seemingly aimed at distinguishing between the Doctor candidates. #25 - Agrees with me that he and I should table our own argument for a bit to sort out the Doctor claims. Unvotes pygmy. #29 - Starts wondering how the false claim affects the likelihood of there being 3 vs. 2 scum remaining. #32 - Says false claim is "shift in his paradigm;" doesn't really elaborate. #38 - More on the same subject as #29 #41 - Heading home, will check tomorrow #84 - Didn't have time to participate today Once again, posts prominently having to do with our argument with one another boldfaced. ToDay, so far, Blaster has been somewhat less participatory than I, but still in his relatively few posts he has covered "other issues" ranging from the number of remaining scum to asking questions of the Doctor claimants. In short, your characterization of our argument is a blatant falsehood - and one that's parroting pygmy, who I think is more than 50% likely to be scum (as I credit diggit's claim over his). Further analysis forthcoming.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 16:03:23 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 28, 2007 16:03:23 GMT -5
I am now stymied.
I was growing increasingly convinced that Blaster is scum, for all the reasons that I have mentioned and because I am/was reasonably sure that there are three scum remaining, and mathematically speaking, if that is so, Blaster has to be one of them.
But after reading how quickly Roosh jumped to (falsely) paint us as having an argument with one another to the exclusion of other topics, I am worried.
Posit only two remaining scum: pygmy and Roosh. They need to force not one but two mislynches in order to win this game. How to accomplish this? Well, first of all, create a Doctor dilemma - claim Doctor and let the town choose: maybe one of your mislynches happens there.
But if the town guesses right, you still need to force not one, but two mislynches. But you've noticed that I seem to be climbing onto Blaster all of a sudden, and he's responding pretty aggressively. Well, here's your path! Create a circumstance where voting for one of the three (BM, myself, and Roosh) seems attractive (the circumstance in which we now find ourselves). Watch Blaster and I whale on one another. Suggest - even if you have to twist the facts to do it - that maybe we're both scum. Create a dichotomy in the collective mind: maybe they're both scum, but certainly one of them must be.
Then, concentrate most of your efforts on getting the town to lynch the real Doctor, pausing only long enough to here and there make remarks about the Blaster / storyteller battle, but never coming down on one side or another.
Things fall out as they will - either Blaster or I is lynched. By now you have the town so certain that one or the other of us must be scum, that when the lynch target turns up town the other winds up on the block the next Day.
Game over.
Blaster, if you are town - and unfortunately I am not convinced on this point - then this is M2, Day 2, and I have been cast in the role of Queuing.
I need to recalibrate.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 16:15:09 GMT -5
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 28, 2007 16:15:09 GMT -5
Okay, really quick, since it's on my mind, this is to Roosh regarding the whole 50-50 thing.
Mathematically, with no adjusting for the play, it is a 50% shot at nailing scum between Diggit and Pygmy. This is because we have certainy about the roles involved, just not who holds them.
IMO, it is NOT a 50% shot looking at the group of you, me and Storyteller. Let p5 be the probability of there being 5 scum at start and p4 be the probability of 4 scum; thus, p5 is also the probability of there being 3 scum remaining, and likewise for p4 and 2 scum. We can also say p4 = (1 - p5) and p5 = (1 - p4) unless someone really believes there's only one scum left (of which I think the possibility is negligible), and there can't be 4 scum left because it would be game over. Thus, we can say that the expectation of hitting scum, if shooting at random between you, me, and storyteller, is p = p4 * (1/2) + p5 for you, me and storyteller and p = p4 * (1/3) + p5 * (2/3) for our geniuses and the doctor or, to simplify in terms of one variable, p = (1 - p4) / 2 or p = (1 + p5) / 2 for the three of us and p = (2 - p4) / 3 or p = (1 + p5) / 3.
Now, the formulae don't really matter a whole lot, except to demonstrate the relationship between these probabilities. So, let's start with the simpler case, for the three of us. Unless you estimate p5 at 0, then the larger p5 is, the greater the chance of hitting scum, up to 100% of you estimate p5 at 1.0. If you estimate p4 = p5 = 0.5, then you should expect to hit scum with 75% accuracy, etc.
Now comes the tricky part, which is why the confidence of our geniuses is of the utmost importance. Their certainty ranges between 33% and 67%; that is, if they estimate p5 at 0, then their expected chance of hitting scum among the three of us is only 33% and they should more closely examine the doctor claims, and if they are certain that p5 is 1.0, then they should look more closely at the three of us. If they estimate that p4 = p5 = 0.5, then their expected chance of hitting scum is 50% among the three of us, meaning, they need to examine everyone.
Now, this is why I put forth the idea of not targetting the doctors today, because I estimate that p5 > p4 thus, granting an expected scum lynch of greater than 50% (the probability of choosing the scum among Diggit and Pygmy) among the three of us, which is mathematically in the town's favor. Of course, this is a game of social nuances, so obviously any reads, and other such evidence is also important.
Granted, my explanation is overly mathematical, but the concept should be natural. Thus, I understand capybara's hesitance with the idea because she has no definitive way of narrowing the pool between you, me, and storyteller like the three of us do. The doctor, whichever he is, is in the same boat, but obviously, we can't pay him any heed because we have no way of knowing which one is honest and which one isn't.
But this is also why I'm vexed by your insistance on going after whichever doctor because you have an expectation of 50% in the very worst case and 100% in the best, with 75% expectation on average.
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Day Six
Aug 28, 2007 16:36:00 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 28, 2007 16:36:00 GMT -5
Firstly: as far as I remember, from games past, the only real instance where scum was caught because they mistyped was because they called a Daytime lynch a kill, not because they called a Nighttime kill a lynch. But I may be mistaken.
On the other hand, Mad and me (mainly) were fooled by what we thought a scum-tell post (against dotchan). Both Mad and dotchan are confirmed town. Anyone who bases his/her strategy on a similar (and, in my eyes, far weaker supposed slip) has not learned from the past.
After Roosh's long, long, long posts (which, to me read, in summary like this: "I'm convinced Diggit is scum and no one and nothing will dissuade me from it", I have to say:
1. Most players (whose alignment isn't known) agree with the stance that it would be actually beneficial to lynch someone outside me and the false Doctor. 2. I agree with that stance. Actually I'd go one step further: if toDay we get a psycho, I'd willingly let myself be lynched tomorrow. This because in that case the Town would have a good chance even with the mis-lynch. If it happens toDay, we'll be playing into the psycho's hands (a mis-lynch toDay was what they were counting on)
Right now, point 1 has two detractors: pygmy and Roosh. Since I'm convinced it is the best thing the town can do and it's precisely what they are, strongly, arguing against, I'll
unvote pygmy vote Roosh
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