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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 21:41:53 GMT -5
I could maybe agree to the nosy reporter outing themselves so that we can coordinate info a little bit and the sheriff can protect the NR anonymously but I don't really like the idea of everyone outing themselves.
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Post by special on Sept 9, 2011 22:04:05 GMT -5
Vote Counts are for sissies.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 22:21:01 GMT -5
I agr- HEY!
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 9, 2011 22:47:02 GMT -5
While I could definitely get behind the nosy reporter outting themselves I'm taking some things into account here, based on consideration of the setup and how it relates to day one:
1) The MPP is going to be difficult to spot today, having no one who we could compare him/her to based on the fact the rest of his/her teammates don't know him yet, as player interactions are the name of the game here. Although we could probably catch him based on how he acted towards other players, I'm not particularly sure that'll work and can be dangerous.
2) The recruits are going to be nearly impossible to identify today. At best we lynch someone for looking suspect as hell and they might turn out to have been a recruit somewhere down the line.
3) Taking these into consideration this might be the first day one in ages I would actually consider lynching no one as I feel like no matter what I do I am just shooting straight into the dark.
Thoughts/Comments/Concerns/Someone willing to shoot these thoughts to hell?
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 9, 2011 23:24:04 GMT -5
No lynch is a waste of time. It's essentially the same as starting Night one. The MPP starts with a recruit, gets a NK and we start Day 2 in the same position as we are now.
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Post by sturmhauke on Sept 10, 2011 1:02:29 GMT -5
Yeah, the lynch isn't just about who gets killed but also how other people react to it. The MPP will be mad if we lynch one of the recruits, and happy otherwise. Maybe they'll slip up and do something scummy tomorrow.
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Post by Dirx on Sept 10, 2011 1:33:15 GMT -5
I haven't voted anyone yet, Skeez. Try not to skim. I heavily implied that I won't be voting for Jan twice now (at least, based on the "slip").
If the Nosy Reporter claims and outs the other roles, we gain very little. We have 5 confirmed town now, but as soon as Night 1 hits, that number drops to 2, because 3 of the 5 power roles can be recruited. (and that assumes the NR doesn't suicide Tonight, reducing the confirmed to 1). Scum, however, gains a hell of a lot, because they learn who they need to kill among those that they didn't/can't recruit.
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Post by Silver Jan on Sept 10, 2011 2:17:36 GMT -5
I didn't really make a "slip" it was just something that was in my head. If you think about it logically, with only 15 players, 5 scum would be an awful lot even if they hadn't turned yet?
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 5:36:50 GMT -5
We do tend to lynch the lurker the first day so I would think they would be involved enough but not overbearing. So basically anyone... <snipped> this is laughable.
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 5:50:39 GMT -5
Dirx/Silver Jan could be a slip. Maybe even Dirx inspired Silver Jan to make that comment. I don't buy it. Assuming scum would make such a simple mistake this early in the game, I guess it's possible but the idea that there's 4 total scum in this game is preposterous, given the open nature and the recruitibility of some of the power roles, I think 3 is far more likely.. So I don't feel that it could be a PIS, as it fails the "perfect" part of the test. Given that dirx made the same assumption as jan and then voted jan for it, stinks to high heaven. For now, [colorBlue] vote Dirx
Also, if it's been discussed i've missed it, but i'm entertaining thoughts of the Nosy Reporter claiming, so that the scientist can vaccinate and the sherriff can protect. But I can see potetial downsides to that (sherriff and scientist can be recruited). What other pros and cons are there for this scenario?<bleached> crud this is horrible reasoning even from you, fcs. how can there be a fracking slip of complicity if there is not a possibility of that occurring yet (at least as far as i read the rules). just an all out crappy vote for a totally lame ass reason. s'far as i am concerned. and a hop on to boot. unvote allvote skeezy
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 5:53:48 GMT -5
Yeah, the lynch isn't just about who gets killed but also how other people react to it. The MPP will be mad if we lynch one of the recruits, and happy otherwise. Maybe they'll slip up and do something scummy tomorrow. hate to say it sturmy i am the only one that transparant in this crowd.
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Post by Drain Bead on Sept 10, 2011 6:07:39 GMT -5
One thing, peek--you'd think that the MPP, of all people, would know that wasn't possible at this point.
I agree that traditionally, Red's post would be very Scummy, but we aren't playing a traditional game.
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Post by Red Skeezix on Sept 10, 2011 8:35:06 GMT -5
Dirx/Silver Jan could be a slip. Maybe even Dirx inspired Silver Jan to make that comment. I don't buy it. Assuming scum would make such a simple mistake this early in the game, I guess it's possible but the idea that there's 4 total scum in this game is preposterous, given the open nature and the recruitibility of some of the power roles, I think 3 is far more likely.. So I don't feel that it could be a PIS, as it fails the "perfect" part of the test. Given that dirx made the same assumption as jan and then voted jan for it, stinks to high heaven. For now, [colorBlue] vote Dirx
Also, if it's been discussed i've missed it, but i'm entertaining thoughts of the Nosy Reporter claiming, so that the scientist can vaccinate and the sherriff can protect. But I can see potetial downsides to that (sherriff and scientist can be recruited). What other pros and cons are there for this scenario?<bleached> crud this is horrible reasoning even from you, fcs. how can there be a fracking slip of complicity if there is not a possibility of that occurring yet (at least as far as i read the rules). just an all out crappy vote for a totally lame ass reason. s'far as i am concerned. and a hop on to boot. I never implied complicity. Please read what I actually wrote before accusing me of something. You'll note that I don't believe either Silver Jan or Dirx made a perfect info slip. What I said is: If a does something then b does something, and a points out that what b did. What does that say about a? I agree it's less than stellar reasoning, but this game has to start somewhere and a bunch of people saying we have no reason to vote is not a good place to start. Dirx, you're right you haven't voted yet. That was a mistake on my part. You did point out Jan's assumption though: So at the moment there is really only 1 scum and 4 potential scum. Where are you getting 4? The posted role description and PM don't give a specific number of recruits. Next up, I'm not saying the Nosy Reporter should claim who everyone else is, that would be would be an exercise in futility. Just the possibility that the the nosy reporter may want to consider saying "Hey, I'm the nosy reporter", Might have some merit, and at least gets us thinking about something other than. "Gee there's only one scum right now, we'll never find him."
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 9:19:03 GMT -5
hey, skeez
the only observation i can make at this point is:
when you are at the bottom of the hole sometimes stop digging makes sense.
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 9:19:52 GMT -5
oh fuck. did it again.
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 9:21:10 GMT -5
thread got real wide
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 9:24:59 GMT -5
seriously, preview does not really translate into what you see.
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Post by peekercpa on Sept 10, 2011 9:25:45 GMT -5
glad i didn't go with a really big font.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 10, 2011 9:31:52 GMT -5
Unofficial Vote Count Silver Jan(2): guiri [51], BillMC [56] Dirx(2): Drain Bead [88], Red Skeezix [89] Peekercpa (1): sinjin [1], Drain Bead [21] Texcat (1): Paranoia [2] Drain Bead(1): sturmhawke [19] Red Skeezix(1); peekercpa [99] guiri (0): Drain Bead [53] Sturmhawke(0): Sister Coyote [3]
Tie votes are a no lynch in case anyone is wondering. We have a little over a real life day left. I don't quite uderstand the case on Red. What is it about 89 that would be scummy in a regular game but is less so here?
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 10, 2011 9:32:34 GMT -5
That would be post 89.
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Post by guiri on Sept 10, 2011 9:59:51 GMT -5
I'm thinking out loud here, what are the merits of the various claims?
Nosy reporter claims, doesn't name any names, mad scientist prevents the possible sampling from progressing, sheriff protects from scum kill, town drunk checks for sampling, NR stays alive but uses up the TD one Night, the MS at least one Night (until the TD claims) and the sheriff every Night as long as they are alive. We have a confirmed Town. The risks are that the Sheriff is recruited and will remove protection and that any other exposed player will have no protection.
If the TD claims, they can be protected by the Sheriff, same benefit (one confirmed Town) and the same risk if the Sheriff is recruited, buy no other roles involved.
If the Psychoanalyst claims, TD can investigate, MS delays, Sheriff protects.
Which, if any, is preferable? Why?
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Post by guiri on Sept 10, 2011 10:07:12 GMT -5
Ah, the NR may be preferable as without the MS toNight, they could be dead at Dawn and we've lost the info on the 4 other roles (well, not lost, the 4 know who they are...) but the odds of the NR being sampled and being the N1 choice must be tiny, right (3.5%?)?
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Post by BillMc on Sept 10, 2011 10:24:23 GMT -5
Given that dirx made the same assumption as jan and then voted jan for it, stinks to high heaven. For now, vote Dirx Dirx didn't actually vote for Jan; the case against Dirx appears very weak. He has explained why he came up with 4 Nights; Jan's reasoning for 4 is a lot weaker. Also, if it's been discussed i've missed it, but i'm entertaining thoughts of the Nosy Reporter claiming, so that the scientist can vaccinate and the sherriff can protect. But I can see potetial downsides to that (sherriff and scientist can be recruited). What other pros and cons are there for this scenario? There would be no point in the scientist vaccinating the NR tonight, as the effect is only valid 1 night, and the NR is not at risk of suicide - they would only suicide if the final sampling was imminent. If the Sheriff is recruited, then an outed NR would be toast. As the NR does know the other town powers, they could be in the position to help avoid a mislynch of a town power on D1 crud this is horrible reasoning even from you, fcs. how can there be a fracking slip of complicity if there is not a possibility of that occurring yet (at least as far as i read the rules). just an all out crappy vote for a totally lame ass reason. s'far as i am concerned. and a hop on to boot. unvote all vote skeezy I'd disagree with Peeker on this - it;s a reasonable question. I'm thinking out loud here, what are the merits of the various claims? Nosy reporter claims, doesn't name any names, mad scientist prevents the possible sampling from progressing, sheriff protects from scum kill, town drunk checks for sampling, NR stays alive but uses up the TD one Night, the MS at least one Night (until the TD claims) and the sheriff every Night as long as they are alive. We have a confirmed Town. The risks are that the Sheriff is recruited and will remove protection and that any other exposed player will have no protection. If the TD claims, they can be protected by the Sheriff, same benefit (one confirmed Town) and the same risk if the Sheriff is recruited, buy no other roles involved. If the Psychoanalyst claims, TD can investigate, MS delays, Sheriff protects. Which, if any, is preferable? Why? While the NR is alive, the scum will not risk a counterclaim to any town power claim. So for D1 at least, an undisputed town power claim should be accepted as being truthful. Ah, the NR may be preferable as without the MS toNight, they could be dead at Dawn and we've lost the info on the 4 other roles (well, not lost, the 4 know who they are...) but the odds of the NR being sampled and being the N1 choice must be tiny, right (3.5%?)? The choice for the NK you mean, as the NR is immune to recruitment. So back to the earlier question of who would the MPP recruit - well the related question is who would be their lynch/NK target. The MPP really needs to ensure folk they put on their list are not lynched; similarly, the NK target would be someone not on the list.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 10, 2011 10:35:22 GMT -5
If the NR was the first person on the MPP's list then they would suicide tonight, wouldn't they?
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Post by guiri on Sept 10, 2011 10:47:38 GMT -5
I think "final sampling" refers to the Night the NR's recruitment would normally take effect. The NR can be sampled but dies when it's their time to be sampled. they don't actually check in with the TD, it's just color to explain how they know it's time to die. Right, Ed?
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Post by texcat on Sept 10, 2011 11:39:34 GMT -5
I don't see any advantage to anyone claiming. It's not like we have a vig who might take out a power role. The sheriff and the mad scientist can only protect one person and we have a few roles we might want to protect. I don't think the town drunk or psychiatrist should claim until they have something useful to tell us. If one of them gets a pod result, I would suggest that they claim. In the TD's case, if he gets a result of future pod, we can either lynch or ask the mad scientist to prevent the conversion.
The clears from the drunk and shrink are not too useful. The drunk can tell us that A is not a future pod, but unless the shrink also tell us that A is not currently a pod, it's not much good. And the shrink can tell us B is not a pod, but who knows about tomorrow. And all investigations are off in the case of the MPP.
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Post by special on Sept 10, 2011 11:47:40 GMT -5
I think "final sampling" refers to the Night the NR's recruitment would normally take effect. The NR can be sampled but dies when it's their time to be sampled. they don't actually check in with the TD, it's just color to explain how they know it's time to die. Right, Ed? Correct
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Post by texcat on Sept 10, 2011 12:13:01 GMT -5
Next up, I'm not saying the Nosy Reporter should claim who everyone else is, that would be would be an exercise in futility. Just the possibility that the the nosy reporter may want to consider saying "Hey, I'm the nosy reporter", Might have some merit, and at least gets us thinking about something other than. "Gee there's only one scum right now, we'll never find him." And exactly why would this benefit town? It sure seems like you are anxious to know who the reporter is, and I can't figure out any townie reason for wanting to know.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 10, 2011 12:28:42 GMT -5
The reporter and the town drunk are the only unempoddable roles. If either of them claim, the sheriff and the MS can ensure they are never compromised until late in the game. The NR has the added benefit of knowing who the power roles are and can confirm role claims on later days. We had decided in the zoo mafia game that it made sense for the detective to claim immediately and be protected anonymously by the doc. I suspect Red's trying to see if that strategy works here. I think it would except recruitment throws a wrench into the works.
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Post by Deni on Sept 10, 2011 12:29:25 GMT -5
Dirx/Silver Jan could be a slip. Maybe even Dirx inspired Silver Jan to make that comment. I don't buy it. Assuming scum would make such a simple mistake this early in the game, I guess it's possible but the idea that there's 4 total scum in this game is preposterous, given the open nature and the recruitibility of some of the power roles, I think 3 is far more likely.. So I don't feel that it could be a PIS, as it fails the "perfect" part of the test. Given that dirx made the same assumption as jan and then voted jan for it, stinks to high heaven. For now, vote DirxThis makes no sense Dirx never said only 4 scum recruits, he said scum can't win before Night 4 after 4 recruits and all mislynches.
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