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Post by Sister Coyote on Sept 11, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
I'm going to do something I don't usually do and follow the madding crowd:
vote Red Skeezix
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 11, 2011 13:13:44 GMT -5
Why? Just cuz or do you think he's scummy as well?
I'm not sold on it. No power roles have been outed, it's just discussion so far and while I think Dirx pretty much had the right of it in his previous post I don't necessarily see it as scummy yet.
Vote: BillMc
He posted twice early in the game, one was pretty much just fluff, the other was a vote for Jan based on the slip. He hasn't posted since except for a quickie post yesterday defending his vote for Jan and then some game mechanics talk. Looks to me like he's laying low and making perfunctory participation posts.
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Post by Red Skeezix on Sept 11, 2011 13:26:32 GMT -5
5 hours left in the day.
I think dirx is scummy, but I agree with Inner's point about bill laying low.
I guess I have to claim. I'm the sheriff. Also my PM doesn't match the one listed in the rules thread. Not sure if that means anything other than the mod being lazy.
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Post by Red Skeezix on Sept 11, 2011 13:32:49 GMT -5
Red Skeezix is giving me a strong misdirection vibe, with all this talk of a NR claim and the vote on Dirx. Also, it's only misdirection if you believe bringing up other topics of conversation and you believe that no one is able to discuss more than one topic at once is misdirection. unvote Dirxvote Sturmhauke
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 11, 2011 13:48:04 GMT -5
5 hours left in the day. I think dirx is scummy, but I agree with Inner's point about bill laying low. I guess I have to claim. I'm the sheriff. Also my PM doesn't match the one listed in the rules thread. Not sure if that means anything other than the mod being lazy. Considering my PM also failed to match the one in the rules thread, yeah I'm sure it's mod laziness. I don't like sturmhawke here, so... Vote: Sturmhawke
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 11, 2011 13:48:50 GMT -5
Aww geez. I hope enough people come back in time to unvote.
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Post by guiri on Sept 11, 2011 14:01:14 GMT -5
Unofficial vote count: RedSkeezix (6): Peeker(99), Sturmhauke(137), PolluxOil(139), Dirx(145), TexCat(147), SisterCoyote(150)
SilverJan (2): Guiri(51), Bill(56) Sturmhauke (2): RedSkeezix(153), Paranoia(154)
TexCat (1): Paranoia(2) Guiri (1): DrainBead(53-88), SilverJan(144) Bill (1): InnerStickler(151) Dirx (1): DrainBead(88), RedSkeezix(89-153)
Short of a counter-claim by the NR or real Sheriff, I'll move my vote to avoid the lynch if SilverJan isn't the closest candidate.
Sturmhauke (0): SisterCoyote(3-69) DrainBead (0): Sturmhauke(19-137) Peeker (0): Sinjin(1-142), DrainBead(21-53)
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Post by Dirx on Sept 11, 2011 14:03:10 GMT -5
Unvote: Red Skeezix
Unless there's a counterclaim, of course.
Also, Paranoia, your joke vote from post 2 is still standing, so you probably have to unvote that for your new vote to take effect. Not that the vote makes a lick of sense, anyway. "Because you don't like him"? Really? There aren't really any strong cases Today, but there's certainly enough going around for you put a better vote down, isn't there? Red's reasoning is pretty weak already (par for the course so far)--is that the same reason you're voting for Sturmhauke?
Hell with it.
Vote: Paranoia
Because I don't like his vote.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 11, 2011 14:06:38 GMT -5
Unofficial Vote Count Red Skeezix(6); peekercpa [99], sturmhawke [137], Pollux Oil [139], Dirx [145], texcat [147], Sister Coyote [150] Silver Jan(2): guiri [51], BillMC [56] Sturmhawke(2): Sister Coyote [3], Red Skeezix [153], Paranoia [154] Texcat (1): Paranoia [2] Dirx(1): Drain Bead [88], Red Skeezix [89] Inner Stickler(1): sinjin [134] guiri (1): Drain Bead [53], Silver Jan [144] BillMc(1): Inner Stickler [151] Peekercpa (0): sinjin [1], Drain Bead [21] Drain Bead(0): sturmhawke [19]
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 11, 2011 14:07:32 GMT -5
dammit, that's what I get for being distracted by the nutty professor.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 11, 2011 14:10:39 GMT -5
Given the claim, I'd be willing to move to Silver Jan or sturmhawke to save red.
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 11, 2011 14:17:56 GMT -5
[/color] Unless there's a counterclaim, of course. Also, Paranoia, your joke vote from post 2 is still standing, so you probably have to unvote that for your new vote to take effect. Not that the vote makes a lick of sense, anyway. "Because you don't like him"? Really? There aren't really any strong cases Today, but there's certainly enough going around for you put a better vote down, isn't there? Red's reasoning is pretty weak already (par for the course so far)--is that the same reason you're voting for Sturmhauke? Hell with it. Vote: Paranoia [/color] Because I don't like his vote.[/quote] Well, to be fair it's more I don't like him for the reasons Red Skeevix laid down, which I found good as any reason to lynch today if we must. And okay. UnvoteVote: Sturmhawke
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 11, 2011 14:28:05 GMT -5
Plus I don't get the "Unless CC bit."
Fake claiming anything would be suicidal with the NR about.
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Post by Dirx on Sept 11, 2011 14:32:49 GMT -5
Suicidal, maybe, but if the NR comes in to confirm a power role, then the scum know the ID of a confirmed townie. Add to that the possibility of getting us to lynch the REAL sheriff (if Red were fake-claiming), that's two town power roles down for the price of one scum. Sure, on Day 1, the MPP isn't sure how many of the recruits will take, and thus how many scum can be sacrificed, but those odds are still tempting.
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Post by Dirx on Sept 11, 2011 14:34:34 GMT -5
NETA: durrr, not thinking enough. Obviously if the NR claimed, they'd confirm the correct Sheriff claim in the event of counterclaims. Disregard my previous post.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Sept 11, 2011 14:40:41 GMT -5
Plus I don't get the "Unless CC bit." Fake claiming anything would be suicidal with the NR about. If Red Skeezix is the MPP, there's no reason not to fake claim, especially at the end of the Day to cause confusion. Having the real Sheriff claim, or have the Nosy Reporter come out, helps the scum out a ton...unless of course either of them are seeded, in which case it's a crap shoot for them. Anyway, point is a fake claim is viable, since it's late enough in the day to cause a panic. But I'll take his claim at face value, for now. Unvote: Red Skeezix Vote: Paranoia Voting for Paranoia because of the no lynch suggestion, and in agreement with Dirx on some hinkiness on Paranoia's vote for sturm.
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 11, 2011 14:42:35 GMT -5
The no lynch suggestion was simply because I certainly don't see how we'll be able to hunt scum down today (apart from a blaringly obvious MPP).
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Post by Red Skeezix on Sept 11, 2011 14:46:08 GMT -5
WRT all the fake claiming nonsense.
If I were faking it:
1. The nosy reporter could counter claim me. 2. The sheriff could counter claim me. 3. I would have to be the MPP. (No recruits yet) 4. Game over for scum.
Dirx/Pollux Oil: As I understand it, were I fake claiming, it's not two town power roles for the price of one scum: It's two town power roles for the entire scum team. Don't downplay the risks of fake claim in order to bolster your own position that a fake claim at this point makes any kind of sense.
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Post by guiri on Sept 11, 2011 14:48:46 GMT -5
Even a random vote has a 28% (with 3 recruits) or 35% (4 recruits) chance of hitting a recruit or the MPP.
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 11, 2011 14:49:56 GMT -5
EBWOP: In otherwords, it feels like today we are firing straight into the unknown. Yes no lynching gives the MPP the first shot but I'm not particularly sure how that's bad in this instance when most of the scum don't know they are mafia at the moment and thusly won't be acting too odd/different.
This is a day one where everyone is going to have an excuse for their vote in later days because no one knew blah blah blah.
Hence why I'd rather lynch no one. But if we have to lynch I'm agreeing with Red on his Sturmhawke vote. I'm not sure how in particular that's scummy since I honestly don't have any better ideas at the moment.
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Post by guiri on Sept 11, 2011 14:51:33 GMT -5
If I were faking it: 1. The nosy reporter could counter claim me. 2. The sheriff could counter claim me. 3. I would have to be the MPP. (No recruits yet) 4. Game over for scum. Not game over. Town must lynch all the recruits in order to win, even if the MPP is lynched D1. A false claim would still help the scum team.
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Post by Dirx on Sept 11, 2011 14:51:57 GMT -5
I thought it was discussed earlier that the game wasn't over until the MPP and all recruits were also dead. Also, I did recant my thoughts on fake-claiming, because--as I pointed out--I didn't think it through enough.
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Post by Dirx on Sept 11, 2011 14:55:47 GMT -5
NETA: you guys are fast. My post was in response to Red's.
Regarding no-lynch: I am VERY strongly against no-lynching in any game barring exceptionally special circumstances (none of which I can think of at the moment). It easily leads to an argument of "Well, we have no data, so let's no-lynch and wait until Tomorrow." Surprise, with no lynch Yesterday, there's not a whole lot of info Today either, barring the scum kill and any lucky investigations. And so on. Not worth it. Lynch now, hope to get the MPP, or, failing that, one of the recruits. The latter would be a lucky guess or based on metagame reasons instead of behaviour, obviously, but it can still happen.
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Post by Paranoia on Sept 11, 2011 14:57:09 GMT -5
Even a random vote has a 28% (with 3 recruits) or 35% (4 recruits) chance of hitting a recruit or the MPP. This is true, I guess. What I'm mostly worried about is info in later days, though. Plus lesse, assuming 3 recruits: 15 - 4 = 11 - 4 = 7 townies needed to get rid of in order to win. 7/2 = 3.5, so around 3 night kills and four mislynches. NLing lets them shave off the .5 and means they'd only need 3 mislynches. In this case yeah if we nl we lose a mislynch. Thusly it'd be optimal to lynch today in that case. If 4 recruits: 15-5 = 10 - 4 = 6. 6/2 = 3. Nling lets them shave off a .5 again, leaving them with 2.5 - in otherwords they'd have to managed 3 mislynches still, rendering no lynching not that harmful in the long run.
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Post by Deni on Sept 11, 2011 15:53:15 GMT -5
I do believe Red's claim at the moment due to the fact that I thought his posts looked like a power role looking for advice, either that or a scum fishing for targets. Although it isn't impossible that the MPP would be fishing for information it just doesn't seem likely. (I am learning, scum will do anything) Due to the fact that the sheriff can be recruited only means that after toNight Red's claim is useless afterall he could be one of them in the morning.
4 votes on Red, 2 each on Sturmhawke, Paranoia, and SilverJan unless someone moves their vote or someone else comes on to add to this my vote isn't going to do much. No real reason to vote anyone at the time but it would be nice not to mislynch a sheriff before he becomes useful or podded.
Vote Sturmhawke
Will be around for EOD and willing to change if necessary
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 11, 2011 15:59:46 GMT -5
Ok, there are 2 hours left in the day and we have a claimed cop slated for burning. This is not good. I'm prepared to treat Red as confirmed because honestly, I don't see the MPP as fake claiming that readily in this open setup. To that end, I am unvoting Bill and will look at the three players tied with 2 votes to see which one I would support burning the most. If one other person joins with me we can force a tie and I would prefer a no lynch to lynching a claimed cop.
Unvote: BillMC
Silver Jan's votes are for the PIS hypothesis. Weak case, appropriate for day one maybe but not one I feel like I can support right now.
Sturmhawke's vote for Red was pretty terse. A few sentences and a vote based on misdirection. I didn't see much misdirection in Red's posts. I feel he's been really focused on figuring out the game layout.
Paranoia's getting votes for piggybacking on Red's argument. I don't see this as being all that strong a case either right now. It smacks of casting about for a suitable replacement for Red.
Vote: sturmhawke
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Post by Inner Stickler on Sept 11, 2011 16:02:56 GMT -5
Oh good, Deni voted for sturmhawke as well.
Unofficial Vote Count Red Skeezix(4); peekercpa [99], sturmhawke [137], Pollux Oil [139], Dirx [145], texcat [147], Sister Coyote [150] Sturmhawke(4): Sister Coyote [3], Red Skeezix [153], Paranoia [154], Deni [174], Inner Stickler [175] Silver Jan(2): guiri [51], BillMC [56] Paranoia(2): Dirx [157], Pollux Oil [165] Texcat (1): Paranoia [2] Dirx(1): Drain Bead [88], Red Skeezix [89] Inner Stickler(1): sinjin [134] guiri (1): Drain Bead [53], Silver Jan [144] BillMc(1): Inner Stickler [151] Peekercpa (0): sinjin [1], Drain Bead [21] Drain Bead(0): sturmhawke [19][/quote]
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Post by guiri on Sept 11, 2011 16:08:07 GMT -5
I'll break the tie.
Unvote Vote Sturmhauke
For the accusation that strategy discussions are an attempt to misdirect and because I want to save the claimed Sheriff.
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Post by BillMc on Sept 11, 2011 16:34:41 GMT -5
Unvote: jan
Vote: sturm
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Post by guiri on Sept 11, 2011 17:02:05 GMT -5
To be sure that Red is unsampled and unpodded, am I right that the: 1. Town Drunk needs to investigate Red toNight to see if he's been sampled but not yet podded 2. Psychoanalyst needs to investigate toNight to see if he's been podded already 3. Mad Scientist needs to administer the vaccine toNight to prevent possible podding on N2 4. Red needs to self-protect or play a WIFOM game with scum
ToMorrow: TD finds Red's been sampled, claims, MS continues administering vaccine until we need to lynch him, no need for MS to claim TD finds he hasn't been sampled, no claim yet. Psychoanalyst finds he's been podded, claims, we lynch Red. Psychoanalyst finds he hasn't been podded, no claim yet.
If neither the TD nor the Psychoanalyst claim, the MS knows not to continue administering the vaccine. Although the TD and Psychoanalyst may choose to keep the result under their belt and attempt to find more pods before claiming, then the MS should continue administering the vaccine just in case?
But the Psychoanlyst could have been podded him/herself so Red cannot be fully confirmed until the Psychoanalyst is dead.
Does this look right? Of course the power roles will do whatever they see fit but if the intention was to clear Red, is there a more efficient way as it seems quite messy?
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