Day Four

[zuma]

And this illustrates why we need to get votes out there before the end of the day. I routinely vote early in the day... we can change them, you know.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

In FF my "investigations" had multiple potential results, depending on whether I was targeting Hal or not, whether Hal was hiding or not, and there may have also been the possibility that third parties could also impact results if Hal was being protected or I was being role-blocked, but my memory is a bit fuzzy so those last two may have just been theoretical. Functionally, the results all boiled down to "yes", "no", or "unknown". Any "yes" would've been obvious the next day, as Hal/River would've died.

The binary code we worked out was to account for the other two potential outcomes.

[kassia]

Ok I'm back. Sorry I didn't post at all over the weekend. Cookies is much better about the quick fly-by posts than I am. And Minnesota was damn cold, in case any of you were wondering.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to vote now. I've only just skimmed through all the posts for this Day, and given that there is still some suspicion out there towards me, I don't want to post anything without careful consideration. No hasty decisions.

Just a few words for Captian Klutz. I don't know if you are a SDMB'er or not. I don't know how many Mafia games you have played with Cookies. But if you have spent any time on the boards at all, you will know that she never shuts up (love ya babe ). I spend at least 2 hours in a car with her every single day. THAT'S TWO FRIGGIN HOURS OF MAFIA TALK whenever a game is going on. If I didn't know everything there was to know about the damn game already, then I need to have my hearing checked. And because I'm a good wifey, I ask questions and "pretend" to be interested ;D. It is not very fun to listen to her strategize about the game she is playing if I don't understand the mechanics.

And as Cookies said in her post, we have been trying very hard to not have any discussion about this game at all. Which means we have been amazingly up-to-date on our current affairs. NPR is a wonderful way to spend your time while sitting in traffic.

And that's all I've got to say for now. I'll try to get a vote in as soon as possible.

[CatInASuit]

kassia,

If you had been following the games, you should be aware of the "NO EDIT" rule in place.

I suggest you drop a PM to storyteller now, saying exactly what you changed.

[kassia]

oops sorry, I forgot. just went back and bolded the players' names.

[RoOsh]

zuma said:

drainbead said:

Ugh.

Role claim or not, folks? You tell me. I have about fifteen minutes before I'm AFK, and while I might have a chance to post it at lunchtime, I also might not. If I can't, it'll only give less than 24 hours to discuss it. I have the whole thing typed out and ready--I did that Sunday.

Well, now that you've revealed you have a claimable role, you're a target of scum if you're town. I'd have waited for the 24 hours to discuss, and it's unfortunate you've done this now, and I would have waited, but you pretty much have to fully claim now.

I even find it suspicious you're claiming non-vanilla at this point, but be that as it may, I guess you have to claim now. Hopefully you're just a mason.

Whoa whoa whoa!
She's only got 2 votes!
There's a friggin 3 way tie and the weekend is just over, so more activity is coming in. Asking for the role claim right now is just odd, Zuma. 2 votes should not force anyone to role claim, you should know that. And that whole "well now scum know you've got something, so you might as well spill it" is a really... sucky arguement. I mean, if you've got something that could help us out, Drainbead spill it. But if your revealing of your role will only help you not get lynched, but it'll provide scum with more information than it would the town, I don't know if you should role claim yet....

Sheesh, why are you so eager to role claim with 2 votes? And why are you so eager to WANT him to role claim, Zuma? This is a closed game, just because he's got a role doesn't mean scum will automatically KNOW what his role is, it could be something more useful left unrevealed for now.

[Pollux Oil]

Hey everyone. I apologize that I didn't contribute much this weekend, it was half to do with doing things like getting the house decorated for Christmas, and half that I realized I was only skimming people's posts instead of really looking at them, and I needed a quick Mafia break to get myself recharged.

I have two suspects in mind, and I'm going to do a post-by-post analysis of those two suspects first, then I'll re-take a look at what's been said toDay and hopefully I'll have a vote in the next couple hours.

[CatInASuit]

Umm, Roosh,

Just for info, drainbead is a lady

[RoOsh]

*Edit. Apparently you have 3 votes.

:sigh: 3 votes can force a role claim? That's just terrible....
WHERE THE HELL ARE THE REST OF YOU PEOPLE!?!?!
SHIT'S GOING DOWN! So please show up dammit!
Honestly... do you people just WAIT until the last day to really start looking around and posting?
I know it's the weekend and all... but jeez. Even with my having exams and all, i try to stay active by posting at LEAST once a day....


:walks off grumbling again about people voting in final 24 hours and nowhere else:

[Pollux Oil]

Suspect #1: Sinjin

Day 1:
---
1.14 - Expresses disagreement with Pleonast's Guv plan.
1.34 - Expresses disagreement again, Votes Diomedes for Guv.
1.123 - Mod question.
1.162 - Changes Guv vote from Diomedes to Rugger to make sure there isn't a tie.
1.177 - Disagrees with NAF's vote lurker plan, asks where everybody is
1.181 - Responds to NAF's response to her post.
1.183 - Fluff
1.267 - Points out Klutz as possibly scummy, one reason being he pointed out there could be pro-town Replicants based on the "rogue" in the introductory color.
1.310 - Says both zuma and NAF are scummy, zuma for pinholing kassia with "third vote" logic, NAF for agreeing. Votes NAF.
1.487 - Unvotes NAF because of his role claim.
1.523 - Votes zuma.

Night 1:
---
1.2 - Fluff
1.22 - Explaining her hammer vote on zuma.
1.41 - Fluff
1.42 - Fluff

Day 2:
---
2.7 - Fluffy, but quick to jump on idea of three killing factions.
2.19 - Response to zeriel, saying she wasn't hiding with her zuma vote.
2.21 - Another response to zeriel.
2.75 - Votes Pleonast for his circular logic in his voting plan.
2.134 - Remarking on absent players.
2.145 - She thinks players are being "encouraged not to talk about the game", mentions Roosh, atarus, Zuma V1, and NAF specifically by name.
2.149 - Responds to questions about her zuma V1 vote.
2.151 - Tells NAF she fully expected to be called out for her zuma vote.
2.155 - Fluff
2.180 - Longer explanation of her vote for Pleonast.

Night 2:
---
Nothing.

Day 3:
---
3.3 - Fluff
3.4 - Fluff
3.11 - Analysis of dead Colonists so far.
3.42 - Votes Pleonast again for all her reasons the Day before.
3.43 - Responds to zuma V2 of accusation about killing people who haven't had a chance to role-claim.
3.52 - Responds to a "rule of thumb" voting argument that doesn't apply to the situation at hand.
3.70 - Responds to Roosh's questions/comments about her zuma V1 vote.
3.71 - More arguing with Roosh.
3.133 - Complains about only 9 votes being cast with 24 hours left. Mentions she's suspicious of Rugger and Roosh in addition to Pleonast.
3.167 - Fluff

Night 3:
---
3.4 - Fluff

Day 4:
---
4.3 - Fluff
4.33 - Mod Question
4.52 - Fluff
4.91 - Makes case against zeriel, votes for him.
4.92 - Fluff

=====

Conclusion: For some reason I thought sinjin's "good discussion to fluff" ratio was a lot greater (meaning I thought she had more fluff posts). That was the main reason I went back and looked at all her posts.

After looking back at her posts, I'm actually more convinced of her towniness as nothing really scummy jumped out at me. She's been extra fluffy toDay, but that could be because it was the weekend. I was slightly tweaked at the fact that for somebody that voted twice for Pleonast on two consecutive Days, she didn't seem all that upset when we discovered he was a strong pro-Town power role, but she had actually already talked about that issue in one of her arguments with Roosh (this was over her saying 'Rats' after one of the lynches).

She was my first suspect, but after reviewing I'm less inclined to believe she's scum, unless somebody else sees something I'm missing.

Now to do review #2.

[zuma]

Come on Roosh

drainbead came right out and said "should I claim now?" As a student of this game there's no way someone can take away anything other than drainbead is not vanilla or drainbead is scum about to false role-claim. I said I SAID that this was a bad idea on drainbead's part, but what's done is done.

It is now in the interest of the town to get the role-claim out there. You know this. We'll evaluate it and so forth. What was supposed to happen when someone says "oh should i role-claim now?" Yes, it's unfortunate drainbead did this, and frankly I'm getting a little tired of you questioning things which seem fairly obvious. In fact, unvote: drainbead[/color] vote: Rosh[/color]

[zuma]

And that should even be a vote for Roosh.

[zuma]

Liberating is one of the things that defines a townie.

You can say whatever you want. I say Roosh is pissing me off. When I was scum I was way more cautious. Anyway.d

[Pollux Oil]

Suspect #2: Death By Irony

Day 1
---
1.61 - Votes Rugger for Governor w/o a reason, doesn't agree with Pleo's lynch plan.
1.62 - Fluff
1.70 - Wants to give players with low post numbers the benefit of the doubt.
1.158 - Says zeriel's slip is not a big scumtell, but could be a strike against him.
1.171 - Votes Rugger in a joking fashion.
1.184 - Says "scum can't plan during the Day" and says she doesn't think Pleonast proposed his plan for scummy purposes.
1.221 - Says she voted Rugger for Guv because it's easier to hold him accountable for his actions.
1.244 - Unvotes Rugger
1.266 - Votes zuma for being headache-inducing.
1.438 - Unvotes zuma, believes NAF and Pleo's roleclaims, talks about Klutz's possible pro-town Replicants idea as plausible.
1.492 - Votes zuma again, and rehashes all her ideas she's mentioned in previous posts.*

Night 1
---
1.32 - Fluff

Day 2
---
2.18 - Fluff, with a little talk about possible killing factions.
2.36 - FOSes Klutz for "speculating on why somebody died."
2.83 - Explains her FOS on Klutz, then FOSes Roosh for same reason.
2.113 - Responds to Roosh, says she's not FOsing them for posting data, but saying it was a roundabout way of asking "why so-and-so died"
2.121 - Defends Diomedes and Pleonast.
2.182 - Votes Diomedes because she feels like she should vote for one of the vote leaders.**

Night 2
---
2.23 - Fluff

Day 3
---
3.15 - Says the results of last Night help NAF's claim about Replicant resistance.
3.18 - Explains idea for testing Pleo's towniness by waiting for Cop to give information, then waiting two Days to see if Pleo blows them up.
3.36 - Explains her first post of the Day, decides her Cop-Pleo Idea is a bad one.
3.169 - Responds to Rugger's statement of her FOSing people for analyzing the Night deaths, then analyzing the Night deaths herself.
3.184 - Says zeriel explained her FOS thing better than she can. Then votes Roosh because they've been "butting heads" for the past Few Days.***

Night 3
---
Nothing

Day 4
---
4.30 - Apologizes for voting Roosh, as she was voting off memory and thinks she might have gotten events confused.

====

I starred three things.

*In post 1.492, I noticed she basically doesn't add any new information, and basically restates everything she had said in previous posts during the Day, some things almost verbatim. To me, this is trying to look helpful when she's really posting fluff.

**This is the exact quote from post 2.182:

At this point, I don't see a point in voting for anybody other than one of the two vote leaders, and of the two, I think Diomedes is more suspicious, so vote Diomedes.

***On Day 3, she votes Roosh, despite the fact that he has no votes on him and obviously isn't a vote leader. Here's the exact quote:

Speaking of which, I've been butting heads with Roosh over the past few Days now, and while I have no issue with him finding me suspicious, it's the way he's been doing it this time--quoting me horribly, horribly out of context and reading motivations into my statements that aren't there--that makes him my current #1 suspect, so I'm going to vote Roosh.

====

Conclusion: On Day Two, she conveniently doesn't give any new information on who she thinks is suspicious, and just jumps on the Diomedes bandwagon because "I don't see a point in voting for anybody other than the two vote leaders." Then on Day Three, when Pleonast had a good 8 or 9 votes and is definitely in the vote lead, she decides it's suddenly okay to vote for her "#1 Suspect" aka Roosh, who has no votes on him at all.

On all three Days, she has waited until the last few hours to cast her final vote. In addition, Roosh is the only person she's voted for where she gave a solid reason, but then she says her reason might not have even been the right reason.

I'm very, very suspect of Death By Irony right now. I'm going to reread everything that's been post on Day Four now. If nothing jumps out to me as extremely scummy, Death By Irony will get my vote

[Pollux Oil]

Okay, first my thoughts on the kassia situation.

Pleonast voted for Kat Day 1, Kat died Night 1 of bullet trauma.
Pleonast voted for kassia Day 2, only one person died Night 2.

If Pleonast really was being so obvious as that, and he did try to kill kassia Night 2, she was probably resistant to Night kills and therefore she might be a Replicant. However, this is assuming that Pleonast was going to try and kill whoever he was voting for. And we all know what assuming does. Still, with the information we have, I highly doubt Pleonast killed CatinaSuit (since CatinaSuit was defending him) and the color for hockeymonkey's death seems to have been universally applied to the rogue Replicant style of killing. It's a plausible theory that Pleonast tried to kill kassia Night Two and failed. Something I'm keeping in the back of my mind.

Now, 10 people killed Pleonast. I highly doubt all the scum were on that voting train. In fact, there's probably at least one scum in the one-off votes, and since there's less of them, let's take a look at that:

One-off votes were: atarus, Cookies, zeriel, NAF, Parzival, Tragic, episodeofblonde, Death By Irony, Pleonast.

Now obviously NAF and Pleonast can be taken off. I'm also taking myself off because I'm not scum. That leaves:

Cookies, zeriel, Parzival, Tragic, episodeofblonde, Death By Irony.

I have full confidence one of these people are scum. Obviously, DBI is my top suspect so that is something I'm thinking about. Zeriel's gotten a lot of heat, and he happens to be one of the one-offers. Cookies and episodeofblonde have gotten minor heat. Parzival and Tragic have gotten basically no heat.

So the question we have to ask is, what scum would be one-off voting at this point? Is it the rational, helpful-like-a-townie scum (example: Blaster Master in Psychopaths), because if so then we should take a look at Parzival and Tragic. Is it a scum that's taken a lot of heat and suspicion and wanted to get out of the limelight? If so, zeriel's our man.

Things to note: DBI, episodeofblonde, and Tragic all voted after Pleonast had gotten 9 votes on him. So a plausible explanation for all of them is that they didn't want to be the hammer on Pleonast, so they one-offed. Following this train of logic right now, I'm more inclined to look at the other three who were one-offing before Pleonast was hammerable, namely Cookies, zeriel, and Parzival.

(By the way, I know that logic is basically contradicting my suspicious of DBI right now, but I'm going with a full-on brain dump right now as opposed to looking at this with bias.)

CatinaSuit, I'm going to address your idea that if Pleonast investigated the Nexus-9, it would activate. I firmly believe that is NOT the case. From being a cop in the last game, all the "color" I got usually involved me going through people's stuff or getting info from a snitch or something. If you want to go by color, often times investigators don't "come in contact" with the people they're investigating. I am in the camp that the Nexus-9 is inactive during the Day and active during the Night. Based on my role PM, that's what I believe is the case.

However, I did say it was open to interpretation that the Nexus-9 is inactive, and chooses to activate at some point, and then becomes active for the remainder of the game. It's plausible, but not what I personally believe. Again, I definitely think those two possibilities are the ONLY possibilities. I don't think Pleonast would have activated the Nexus-9 by investigating it.

People that are jumping on Capt. Klutz about him "knowing too much" and the rogue Replicant thing: Well, in the vanilla PM that was posted for everybody, the win condition clearly states "when rogue Replicants are dead" so that type of idea could have come from town and scum alike. I don't think it's a good case and I'm slightly suspicious of the people that are jumping on him for it. (Which happen to be episodeofblonde and DBI, two people in my one-off voting group. Hmmmmm.)

CatinaSuit's argument against drainbead was fairly convincing, but not enough to put her on my radar above DBI. But then drainbead herself propelled herself to become more suspicious. Her "should I roleclaim now guys? I have it all ready and typed out" is the EXACT same thing that Cookies did in Firefly. That just reeks of suspicion to me.

And then Sinjin's analysis of zeriel's posts I can only describe with one word: AWESOME. In fact, all the points made by her in that post catapulted zeriel to the top of my scumdar. He was in the mid-range to me since his "I'd vote for Diomedes but nah I don't think I will" on Day Two, but all that info put together really points a heavy finger at him. Him citing "well Pleonast examined me and I came out looking really good" pinged my scumdar heavily. The basic "OMGUS" vote in response from zeriel just cements my suspicions further.

So first off: Vote zeriel for the reasons stated above. I don't like that I'm jumping on sinjin's analysis, but she was spot-on and zeriel's defense, in my opinion, was weak.

My secondary suspicion list: drainbead and DBI. These are people I'd switch my vote to if they get more votes on them/they gain more traction than zeriel. Reasons are obviously stated above.

My maybe list: kassia, zumaV2. These two I'm just keeping my eye on, not ready to vote for them yet until I do a more detailed analysis of their posts. Kassia, for the possibility that Pleonast tried to kill her and she resisted. ZumaV2 I haven't mentioned at all in this post, and it's because the only reason I have against him is very meta-gamey. In his first incarnation, he defended Pleonast. When he came back, he was all about the Pleonast lynch. I know that's very shaky reasoning which is why he's very low on my scumdar. But the fact is it's been bothering me since Day Two and I just never mentioned it because I figured it would go away, but it hasn't.

[Zeriel]

Somehow, my vote for sinjin got missed.

vote sinjin, I say!

[sinjin]

Well that was helpful zeriel.

I will be looking at drainbead this afternoon and updating my table, which I totally forgot about. So don't expect a post from me for several hours.

[Parzival]

Time to get a vote in. No one else seems more scummy to me right now, so I'm going to

vote zeriel.

I think he may be the top candidate as of now, but I'd feel a lot better if more people overall were voting. If I am wrong, and he is colony, it doesn't tell us much about people if only a few votes are needed to lynch.

I was thinking drainbead might well be a power role. Something about her gave off that feeling. I previously thought she might have been the Vig, and when Pleo died I grew more suspicious. But I find the possible roleclaim premature.

The other side of this is that it seems likely that some or all scum have power roles in this game (similar to Firefly), so we have to consider them carefully.

[Santo Rugger]

Roosh, you too???

Well, zeriel has been on my list of four since Day 1. Something that concerns me is that these votes seem to have been piled on in the last 24 hours. I guess we can be happy that it wasn't the 24 hours before the end of the Day, but still.

[CatInASuit]

pygmyrugger said:

Roosh, you too???

Well, zeriel has been on my list of four since Day 1. Something that concerns me is that these votes seem to have been piled on in the last 24 hours. I guess we can be happy that it wasn't the 24 hours before the end of the Day, but still.

That's a strange comment from you to Roosh? What do you mean?

As for drainbead and zeriel, I am happy that the pair of them are scum, so will vote to ensure that one of them goes tonight. I will stick with drainbead pending anything further.

[Santo Rugger]

catinasuit said:

pygmyrugger said:

That's a strange comment from you to Roosh? What do you mean?
<snip>

I don't know.

There's something strange going on in New Canaan, though.

[CatInASuit]

pygmyrugger said:

There's something strange going on in New Canaan, though.

I blame the replicants ;D

[Zeriel]

I'm not convinced drainbead is scum, and it's not worth it to me to swing my vote to her to attempt to save my own ass.

I am convinced sinjin and Roosh are the best scum candidates we have right now.

[CatInASuit]

Actually, I know what is interesting.

This is, I think, the first time the town has really started putting a lot of analysis out there about certain players and trying piece it together instead of waiting for a power role.

We have had four or five people's post histories with analysis and deconstruction with people really trying to understand what is going on and work out who is not operating in the Colonist's best interests.

There are certain people who seem to be absent from this or seem to want to fall back into bad habits.

In a way, I am quite enjoying this now. Yes, the town could be wrong with its analysis, but personally, I'm not going to wait for a power role to tell me who is who.

[CatInASuit]

zeriel said:

I'm not convinced drainbead is scum, and it's not worth it to me to swing my vote to her to attempt to save my own ass.

I am convinced sinjin and Roosh are the best scum candidates we have right now.

If Roosh and sinjin are the best scum candidates: make a case for them being scum.

Don't just say it, give us reasoning. We want to know your reasons. If you are town, your thoughts will be helpful to work out what is going on and will point out something the rest of us have missed. If you are town, it is in your best interests to tell us.

Also, why do you think drainbead is not scum, what has she done to make you think this?

[Santo Rugger]

Well, I'll be damned if I'm going to not have a vote placed when we enter the last day, and zeriel is the only one with any votes on my short list, so, vote zeriel.

[RoOsh]

zuma said:

Come on Roosh
I said I SAID that this was a bad idea on drainbead's part, but what's done is done.
~snip~

I do agree with You, Zuma, Drainbead made a very stupid statement. And personally I feel it's a bit... rushed. Who types up a role claim and has everything ready to go with only 2-3 votes on them? I found it really suspicious. That being said, your encouragement of it was odd too. It wasn't something that raised immediate SCUM! flags or anything, but it combined with your earlier behavior... seemed odd. I personally was more irked at drainbead's foolish actions than yours, but i felt a need to comment on both of them.

As for role claiming right away, well i guess I have a different school of thought than you. I don't believe in putting it "right out there". I think *she* (sorry about that, Drainy) should hold off, especially if there is a hidden ability or such that might be more useful in the dark.
I'd rather have people do the analysis and create a LIST before claiming, of people who find said person guilty before the claim and then post claim. So that way we have a pattern. Otherwise just having 3 people there, and then claiming, really really doesn't help us. I'd rather see who PRESSED drainbead into claiming, because that shows which people in the Town had an ACTIVE interest in finding out her role.
--I'd rather have people share any useful information that they may have, but hold off on their claims until there's a majority asking for it. Because in my experience, it's the SCUM who want to KNOW exactly what a person's role is, because they're the ones who have to deal with it at night. So knowing if they're attacking a bomb or a vig or a cop or a doctor is the sort of thing they care about, while the regular people want to care more about the RESULTS of the Cop/Doc/etc, and not so much the SPECIFICS of the role.

That being said, I STILL dislike Drainbead's actions. I am interested in hearing her claims eventually, as she is my #2 suspect, and her behavior in presenting the information (the blatant hints that she has a power role, and the "i've got it all ready and waiting" just really reek of non-towniness to me). However, if my comments have riled you up, Zuma. :shrug: that's fine. Sorry for questioning the "obvious," but to me, it's those sorts of things that APPEAR so obvious, that usually aren't so 'obvious'.
I believe every action belies a motive, and Occam's Razor is RARELY the case when it comes to dealing with scum. Making people think about "the obvious" is exactly the path that scum tend to want people to follow, and it's one I'll try to avoid as much as possible.

I for one am not going to wait for some magic power role to come out and save our asses with some magical mass claim of information, so I will be questioning every action and everyone I see. I suggest you do the same and don't get complacent.
Stay vigilant, people!

[RoOsh]

pygmyrugger said:

Roosh, you too???

Et tu, Gov'nah?
I have no idea what you're saying there.

~~~
And I do agree with CatinaSuit2.0's post #139. I however, will stick to Zeriel, as I find him a bit more suspicious than Drainbead,. only because more of the drainbead 's suspicion issues for me stems to her behavior vs. myself. So I could be biased. Zeriel, the same, but I feel there's more of his actions that are suspicious in regards to other players as well and not just myself (like his damn statements STILL that he finds people suspicious without trying to give anymore details. That's just INCREDIBLY frustrating behavior at best, dude, and ridiculously scummy at worst.)

[Gir!]

captainklutz said:

Actually, in Firefly, the results were not added to the scum boards (well, the snitch on Day 2, from a failed kill, was. Investigative results weren't) .

And yes, Cookies role in Firefly is the exact one I was thinking of. I was surprised that Cookies couldn't say anything until the following Night (which is why we developed a simple code so she could tell us during the Day). Perhaps you can now see why kassia's statement pinged.

In Firefly, Cookies was perfectly free to post her results on the game board, just like any other investigator ;D. She couldn't post it on the scum board because scum weren't allowed out-of-game strategizing during the Day.

Cookies got PMed her investigation results at Dawn, again, just like the other investigators. In fact, that game mechanic makes me more likely to believe that Cookies might have mentioned it to kassia...I can see her saying something like "I really want to say X about my investigation result, but I can't say anything until Night comes again."

I think you're really reaching here, Klutz.

[storyteller0910]

DAY FOUR VOTE COUNT (PAGE FIVE)

zeriel (5) - sinjin, Roosh, atarus, Parzival, Santo Rugger
drainbead (2) - CatinaSuit v. 2.0, CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
kassia (2) - drainbead, Captain Klutz
Roosh (1) - zuma v. 2.0
sinjin (1) - zeriel
Captain Klutz (1) - episodeofblonde

12 votes have been cast; the Day will end in approximately 20 hours and 30 minutes, at 5:00PM EST on Tuesday, December 11.